Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The United said:
At this stage, it does not matter where they put the tanks are. RA will know everything within a few hours. What I don't get is why UA feels the need to probe the line at this point. Shouldn't they have spied on the RA defense and amassed a wealth of knowledge about them by now? We've had some Twitter users looking at the RA defense positions for months, and they appear to be quite substantial, given that the RA had months to prepare for this. They should just concentrate their forces on certain areas to get some break through. Probing the lines sounds like what Wagner did with Bakhmut for months, and I don't think it is the situation that the UA find themselves to be in.

Obviously, we are just commenting on whatever they wrote on the news on the South. The main offensive could be somewhere else, probably in the Northeast.
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None of us are military experts but my guess would be whilst they can see the Russian defences and have good info on where things are with a few kms - they probably don’t know where most of the artillery is or any concealed positions. Kind of need them to open fire and then immediately try and locate where it’s coming from.
 
Carolina Red said:
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Christ, some of the doom mongering in the comment sections of those tweets are on par with our match day threads after Bruno misplaces a pass near the center circle. It's as if those few tanks were the counter offensive Ukraine has been preparing for months.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
None of us are military experts but my guess would be whilst they can see the Russian defences and have good info on where things are with a few kms - they probably don’t know where most of the artillery is or any concealed positions. Kind of need them to open fire and then immediately try and locate where it’s coming from.
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I would think It would work for about an hour because the RA would realize that pretty quickly, take the necessary action, and silence the whole line. The speed gave UA their biggest achievement last summer with the counterattack pretty quickly, and it would be like that this time too, I think. I am just hoping the UA is not doing what the media thinks they are doing.
 
The United said:
I would think It would work for about an hour because the RA would realize that pretty quickly, take the necessary action, and silence the whole line. The speed gave UA their biggest achievement last summer with the counterattack pretty quickly, and it would be like that this time too, I think. I am just hoping the UA is not doing what the media thinks they are doing.
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I think with some of the mobile artillery now you have a few mins in some cases before it relocates so it’s a very fast operation to spot them and hit them.
 
Could it be that Russia knew that it was about to start because as US, they have as well spies and other methods to know what is brewing in Ukraine and that is why they blew the Dam just 2 days to start the offensive to hamper it to concentrate all the defensive forces in a sorter front and at the same time thinning the Ukrainian resources because of the rescue efforts due to the flooding?
 
4bars said:
Could it be that Russia knew that it was about to start because as US, they have as well spies and other methods to know what is brewing in Ukraine and that is why they blew the Dam just 2 days to start the offensive to hamper it to concentrate all the defensive forces in a sorter front and at the same time thinning the Ukrainian resources because of the rescue efforts due to the flooding?
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If so, they didn’t really think that one through…
 
Carolina Red said:
If so, they didn’t really think that one through…
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Well, sure they had lines of defenses while defending before the dam. those were supposed to be lost. all that area is unattakable and undefensible meaning that Russia doesn't need to commit resources and packing them elsewhere narrowing the area that needs to be defended and disrupting the counteroffensive

Obviously I base this in 0 knowledge but the 2 events happened so at the same time that Russians had to know something as a big scale attack can't happen overnight and it was planned

Saying that, it is really happening?
 
If UAF is concetrating their strenght at Zaporižje that means they're trying to isolate Crimea and split Russian forces at Azov sea?
 
Real Name said:
If UAF is concetrating their strenght at Zaporižje that means they're trying to isolate Crimea and split Russian forces at Azov sea?
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Nah, it all seems like another fake offensive to just probe the defence, the real push hasn't even started yet say many our military experts. One is to find as much weak spots as possible before you open your cards.
 
tomaldinho1 said:
None of us are military experts but my guess would be whilst they can see the Russian defences and have good info on where things are with a few kms - they probably don’t know where most of the artillery is or any concealed positions. Kind of need them to open fire and then immediately try and locate where it’s coming from.
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They will know where all the main defence forces are from shared satellite imagery - what these attacks could be is an attempt to get the Russians to commit some of their reserve forces to supplement an area. These forces will be very vulnerable while on the move. If you can drain away the reserve forces then the front line may not be as resolute in defence, and may be more likely to scatter if they aren't worried about guys at their back forcing them back to the front.
 
buchansleftleg said:
They will know where all the main defence forces are from shared satellite imagery - what these attacks could be is an attempt to get the Russians to commit some of their reserve forces to supplement an area. These forces will be very vulnerable while on the move. If you can drain away the reserve forces then the front line may not be as resolute in defence, and may be more likely to scatter if they aren't worried about guys at their back forcing them back to the front.
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I think more crucially it's that reserves deployed to one place can't be deployed somewhere else. Meaning the Ukrainians are trying to get the Russians commit to a few places. Of course it might be worthwhile to hit them on the move it possible.
 
Real Name said:
If UAF is concetrating their strenght at Zaporižje that means they're trying to isolate Crimea and split Russian forces at Azov sea?
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From what I read on twitter, Russians got few reserve brigades in rear waiting to leg it to wherever the push is happening, so they're probing to see the response in reinforcements front line will get.
But yeah, they are likely pushing south Zaporizhzhya as previously predicted, as getting to Melitopol puts whole of Crimea in firing range, the bridge, the fleet, the airfields, the lot.
 
buchansleftleg said:
They will know where all the main defence forces are from shared satellite imagery - what these attacks could be is an attempt to get the Russians to commit some of their reserve forces to supplement an area. These forces will be very vulnerable while on the move. If you can drain away the reserve forces then the front line may not be as resolute in defence, and may be more likely to scatter if they aren't worried about guys at their back forcing them back to the front.
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I don’t think there are enough satellites or probably also staff to monitor a whole frontline in enough detail. They will know most fixed positions and I guess will try to track high priority targets but they won’t know where every bit of artillery is, not even close, considering the scale of what Russia has. It’s much easier for Russia right now, any build up of force is very difficult to hide from satellites.
 
ShoePolish said:
From what I read on twitter, Russians got few reserve brigades in rear waiting to leg it to wherever the push is happening, so they're probing to see the response in reinforcements front line will get.
But yeah, they are likely pushing south Zaporizhzhya as previously predicted, as getting to Melitopol puts whole of Crimea in firing range, the bridge, the fleet, the airfields, the lot.
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Yeah. Even though telegraphed, attacking in that direction would cut the Russian front in half. If true that Russia has their best troops there, then if they break it will most likely result in a big fall of the Russian lines. If this is the strategy from Ukraine, then it's important for all of us to understand that there will be considerable loses of men and equipment from the Ukrainians and not fall prey to propaganda from Moscow trying to make a big deal out of every tank destroyed, Leopard or otherwise; the benefits to a successful offensive here has the potential to break most of the Russian army IMO, so it's worth it.
 
Real Name said:
If UAF is concetrating their strenght at Zaporižje that means they're trying to isolate Crimea and split Russian forces at Azov sea?
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They're probably just looking for weak points in the Russian defense before exploiting them. I wouldn't expect Crimea to be in play until the end after most other Ukrainian territory is recovered.
 
High loses are inevitable when trying to break fortified positions but the second photo with that many armored vehicles bunched up like that is not a good look. Something has gone terribly wrong here.

Good thing is that most damages seems to be mine damage to the tracks so most of the crews where probably able to get away.



 
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the hea said:
High loses are inevitable when trying to break fortified positions but the second photo with that many armored vehicles bunched up like that is not a good look. Something has gone terribly wrong here.

Good thing is that most damages seems to be mine damage to the tracks so most of the crews where probably able to get away.



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Should see the other guy.
 
Well, UA will have issues that RA faced when they attacked. It is easier to defend and talk about the other side's losses. The UA troops will prove whether they are better than the RA in that sense soon enough.

I just hope they learn quickly in the field and get some quick breakthroughs to save lives and equipment.
 
Well, UA will have issues that RA faced when they attacked. It is easier to defend and talk about the other side's losses. Without air supremacy or cover, it would be brutal for whoever tries to attack to break lines like those. The UA troops will prove whether they are better than the RA in that sense soon enough.

I just hope they learn quickly in the field and get some quick breakthroughs to save lives and equipment.
 
Simbo said:
These are purely Russian cherrypicked clips of an aftermath, we don't know what went down there.

Good for them they finally have some footage to brag about though.
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Ukrainian OPSEC is is very tight at the moment so this is all we got for now. Even if this was a failed breach attempt it says very little about how the rest of the fighting is going, as you said this is only cherrypicked footage from the Russian side and big loses are always inevitable in an operation like this. It will probably take weeks or even months before we get a clear picture of how good or bad things really are.
 
Footage taken from a Ukrainian Bradley. This is the evacuation of the crews from the damaged vehicles that was posted yesterday.
Looks like the western armored vehicles are doing their job and the the troops where able to get away unharmed.
 
Its looking like taking out 4 Bradley's didn't actually win the war for Russia after all.

 
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