Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion



Russia fired 22 KH55/101, 6 Kalibr and 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles last night, 29 out of the 30 cruise missiles where intercepted by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Also 2 Shahed 136/131 strike drones and 2 reconnaissance drones where downed.
 


Russia fired 22 KH55/101, 6 Kalibr and 2 Iskander-K cruise missiles last night, 29 out of the 30 cruise missiles where intercepted by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Also 2 Shahed 136/131 strike drones and 2 reconnaissance drones where downed.


It's the third missile night in a row. Russia's desperation is reaching new hights. Meanwhile they've lost 32 artillery systems yesterday.

 
Several European allies are prepared to give their F-16s to Ukraine. But the Biden administration, which must approve any transfers of the American-made planes, remains unconvinced that Ukraine needs the expensive jets, which are a staple of many modern military arsenals.

So deep is Washington’s skepticism that Kyiv’s pilots are currently not even allowed to train on the F-16s that are owned by European states, according to a senior Ukrainian official who spoke on condition of anonymity to frankly discuss the sensitive diplomatic issue.

In Washington, a senior U.S. official said the Biden administration was still reluctant to send Ukraine its own F-16s, in part because the plane’s multimillion-dollar price tag would absorb too much of an already-dwindling pot of war funding. Instead, the U.S. official said, the administration is more concerned with speeding other American weapons to Ukraine in time for a counteroffensive against Russia, and that in any case the jets would not reach the battlefield for months at least — presumably, long after that battle had begun.

 
"Japan military hospital to treat injured Ukrainian soldiers"

TOKYO, May 18 (Reuters) - Japan will treat two injured Ukrainian soldiers at a Tokyo hospital run by its military, the Defence Ministry said on Thursday, Tokyo's latest support measure following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Self-Defence Force Central Hospital plans to admit them next month for rehabilitation treatment, the ministry said in a statement, without providing details about the nature of the soldiers' injuries or if the hospital would receive more wounded troops from Ukraine in the future.

This was the first time the hospital has treated foreign soldiers, a senior member of Japan's ruling coalition told Reuters ahead of the official announcement.
https://www.reuters.com/world/japan...jured-ukrainian-soldiers-lawmaker-2023-05-18/
 
@harms Is this a big story in Russia?


I've seen the news and it's a part of a bigger trend where scientists get accused of treason but I wasn't aware that they are Kinzhal developers. I can't say that this is one of the bigger stories.
 
Wagner's map of Ukrainian terrain gains around Bakhmut in the last couple of days:

 
“A Korea-style stoppage is certainly something that’s been discussed by experts and analysts in and out of government” when it comes to Ukraine, the former Biden administration official said. “It’s plausible, because neither side would need to recognize any new borders and the only thing that would have to be agreed is to stop shooting along a set line.”

 
I think Podolyak saw this article...



The idea of a frozen conflict at this point is kind of Orwellian and deeply unsettling, especially considering that two of the other main probable causes for WWIII are precisely frozen conflicts (the aforementioned Korean war, and China-Taiwan conflict). I can't imagine a scenario where this is desirable.
 
The idea of a frozen conflict at this point is kind of Orwellian and deeply unsettling, especially considering that two of the other main probable causes for WWIII are precisely frozen conflicts (the aforementioned Korean war, and China-Taiwan conflict). I can't imagine a scenario where this is desirable.

It won't be frozen since the Ukrainians will keep fighting to win. The Russians will have no choice in the matter since this won't be like 2014.
 
I suppose this qualifies as cannon fodder



The fact that Ukrainian tanks can drive so close to a trench because there are no anti tank weapons, is another embarrassment for the Russian army.
 
Norway will donate 3 ARTHUR counter battery radars and 8 M270 MLRS. The donations are being made in close collaboration with the UK.

Saab_wins_contract_to_upgrade_Norway_s_Arthur_weapon_location_radar_system_640_001.jpg
pressa-ssha-vlasti-strany-blizki-k-soglasovaniyu-otpravki-na-ukrainu-rszo-m270-mlrs-s-u-4di8u5rv-1654026841.jpg


https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktue...angtrekkjande-artilleri-og-radarar/id2977717/
 
Wouldn't a frozen conflict give Russia much of what they want in terms of territory control as well as stopping Ukraine from joining NATO and possibly the EU?
Would it stop Ukraine from joining? That seems to be the big question about this to me.
 
Frozen conflict would be fitting, Russia is a lot like North Korea already, except with plenty natural resources.

I can perfectly imagine Russia in 20 years still rambling on about "unification of our people" and all that.
 
Wouldn't a frozen conflict give Russia much of what they want in terms of territory control as well as stopping Ukraine from joining NATO and possibly the EU?

Yes, which is why the article is BS. The author interviewed a few people off the record who gave them their opinion, one of which said “We are planning for the long term, whether it looks frozen or thawed,” which resulted in the misleading headline and its subsequent retweeting.
 
Hard to believe the Ukrainians and Moldovans haven't teamed up to boot the Russians out of Transnistria as well.

 
Would it stop Ukraine from joining? That seems to be the big question about this to me.

It wouldn't help imo, since Ukraine joining NATO with Russian troops on internationally recognized NATO land would immediately cause an article 5 problem.
 
It wouldn't help imo, since Ukraine joining NATO with Russian troops on internationally recognized NATO land would immediately cause an article 5 problem.
At least for the EU there already exists a similar issue: Northern Cyprus, which is occupied by a Turkish-supported regime, quite similar to the "Donetsk/Luhansk People's Republics". So joining the EU while being in a frozen war might at least be possible. NATO might be more difficult.
 
Would it stop Ukraine from joining? That seems to be the big question about this to me.

NATO rules are pretty clear.

States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, or internal jurisdictional disputes must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance
.

A frozen conflict would not be a peaceful resolution.
 
As with everything Biden admin has been absolutely useless in estimating how long would it take for Ukrainians to get accustomed to the western kit and delaying it needlessly.

You didn't read the article and the report right? Especially the part where it's mentionned that it would require 12 months to train 12-14 pilots?
 
As with everything Biden admin has been absolutely useless in estimating how long would it take for Ukrainians to get accustomed to the western kit and delaying it needlessly.

It’s deliberate. They make a song and dance about giving them elite weapons to seem reluctant and placate certain sections of both the domestic and international audiences. They’re now sending Abrams this year, having claimed it’ll be 2024 due to logistics and training. They’ll also send long range missiles at some point too - the US definitely coordinated the delivery of storm shadow, as they purposefully sent those decoy missiles to work alongside them back in December.

If they’re even having a conversation about certain weapon systems I just assume it’s a done deal and will definitely be delivered at some point. Everything in between is to buy time to sort the actual logistics out (notice how when something is finally announced Ukraine has it delivered next day like it’s been bought with Amazon Prime) and smooth over any political ramifications.
 
As with everything Biden admin has been absolutely useless in estimating how long would it take for Ukrainians to get accustomed to the western kit and delaying it needlessly.
The weapons that are officially delivered to Ukraine are delivered long before they’re made public
 
As with everything Biden admin has been absolutely useless in estimating how long would it take for Ukrainians to get accustomed to the western kit and delaying it needlessly.
I agree that things could have been done faster and the training should have started earlier but it's good to keep in mind that training the pilots is just one piece of the puzzle and getting F-16's to Ukraine is big fecking puzzle. There are still many other pieces that needs to be put in place before we'll see F-16's over Ukraine.
 
I agree that things could have been done faster and the training should have started earlier but it's good to keep in mind that training the pilots is just one piece of the puzzle and getting F-16's to Ukraine is big fecking puzzle. There are still many other pieces that needs to be put in place before we'll see F-16's over Ukraine.

Not to mention there's no guarantee that any weapon will be a game changer. It will be a collective effort of all weapons and a desire to win that will move the needle on the battlefield.
 


There should be a law allowing such people to be deported to Russia. They like Russia so much, go and live there. This law alone would probably suffice to stop this behaviour, because they don't want to actually live there of course. They just love being controversial and to annoy people.