Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

There should be a law allowing such people to be deported to Russia. They like Russia so much, go and live there. This law alone would probably suffice to stop this behaviour, because they don't want to actually live there of course. They just love being controversial and to annoy people.

I agree. There are some people who clearly deserve to be forced into exile if they love a geopolitical enemy this much.
 
4th missile night in a row now?

In those four nights the Russians fired in total as many missiles as they used to do in one attack.

Which is weird, because launching more at once increases the chance of overwhelming air defense systems.

So why are they doing it this way? It just makes no sense, except if they had a lack of launch platforms at the moment (and that would be this huge as news that we would surely hear more about it).

So I am quite puzzled about what's going on.
 
In those four nights the Russians fired in total as many missiles as they used to do in one attack.

Which is weird, because launching more at once increases the chance of overwhelming air defense systems.

So why are they doing it this way? It just makes no sense, except if they had a lack of launch platforms at the moment (and that would be this huge as news that we would surely hear more about it).

So I am quite puzzled about what's going on.
Isn’t it because all of them got through when there were no air defences so they went for shock and awe?
 
Isn’t it because all of them got through when there were no air defences so they went for shock and awe?
There always were air defences in Ukraine, we are now just seeing a slow replacement of S-300 running out of ammunition by western made systems (Patriot, IRIS, SAMP/T, NASAMS etc)

And even at the time the S-300 were quite good at shooting down cruise missiles.
 
How? :lol:

Sounds like someone overpriced estimates on purpose when they sent them for approval from Congress.
Which would absolutely make sense for PR reason. In the beginning, make it sound like you send a lot of help, once you run into budget limits, make sure that as much as possible fits into the budget.
 
I wonder how many SF operators we have in country doing the same thing. Too much valuable Intel to not have a presence there.

A mate who works for a company selling non-lethal military equipment said last year November that there was a full regiment of SAS on the ground. That was pretty much confirmed in an article not long ago.

In fact he said that the British military command have a direct line to the front and are the ones ultimately putting tenders out to industry - currently a COVID/PPE situation for people wanting to sell everything from night vision to ruck sacks to Ukraine by the sound of things. Usual export licences not required.

The British definitely taking a big role in strategy and helping the Ukrainians a lot. Partly why I think there’s a discrepancy between how much aid we’ve sent and how favourable the Ukrainian government views us. Feel like the UK is considered the top ally - even over the US - and that must be down to committing actual lives in the conflict. We definitely haven’t sent the most weaponry (although we have sent a lot).
 
I wonder how many SF operators we have in country doing the same thing. Too much valuable Intel to not have a presence there.

It's a WSJ opinion piece. "Close to the front lines" probably means Poland or Germany.
 
It has been evident all throughout that US policy is not for Ukraine to win currently, this would have been long over had it been the case. They’re not sending the right signals to Kremlin.
The strategy is clearly not about not letting Ukraine win. They’re concerned with what would happen if Ukraine won quickly.

This is not going to be won on the battlefield, Russia needs to want change from within, I think the US tactic is to ensure that Ukraine do not lose and in the mean time life gets worse and worse in Russia which makes Putin’s position less and less solid.
 
The strategy is clearly not about not letting Ukraine win. They’re concerned with what would happen if Ukraine won quickly.

This is not going to be won on the battlefield, Russia needs to want change from within, I think the US tactic is to ensure that Ukraine do not lose and in the mean time life gets worse and worse in Russia which makes Putin’s position less and less solid.

Whether Ukraine wins slowly or quickly, both would result in a weakened Putin and Russia, which benefits not just the US, but all of NATO (spare Hungary).
 
The strategy is clearly not about not letting Ukraine win. They’re concerned with what would happen if Ukraine won quickly.

This is not going to be won on the battlefield, Russia needs to want change from within, I think the US tactic is to ensure that Ukraine do not lose and in the mean time life gets worse and worse in Russia which makes Putin’s position less and less solid.
Only thing clear is that sanctions (apart from energy) don’t really work as everything finds its way into (and out of) Russia, hence their economic has dropped only a few basis points, it won’t be enough to bring about the end to the regime. Russians have been living for centuries under much worse conditions. The only way the change from within can happen is for their propaganda filled bubble to blow up in front of their people’s eyes, and this can only happen in swift military defeat.
 
Frozen conflict would be fitting, Russia is a lot like North Korea already, except with plenty natural resources.

I can perfectly imagine Russia in 20 years still rambling on about "unification of our people" and all that.
Yes but what is the alternative? Ukraine invading and submitting russia? A defeat for the russians in Ukeaine will create a frozen conflict, it's the best case scenario. Russia has a comprehensive defeat only if they attack NATO and the country gets reset, denazzified if you will. They have a lot of nukes and it is what it is. If they didn't have that, the NATO flag would be in putin's ass already.

I think the point is that a win for Ukraine will create a tense situation over a long period of time, but this time with NATO and Ukraine having so much power that another real war would not happen.
 
Hard to believe the Ukrainians and Moldovans haven't teamed up to boot the Russians out of Transnistria as well.


Moldova does not have an army. Only on paper. Moldova gets rid of Transnistria if they unite with Romania.
 
Moldova does not have an army. Only on paper. Moldova gets rid of Transnistria if they unite with Romania.

Surely the Ukrainians could do them a favor given that the Russians in Transnistria are more so police than battle hardened soldiers.
 
Surely the Ukrainians could do them a favor given that the Russians in Transnistria are more so police than battle hardened soldiers.
I hope so. If there is fire from there then I'm sure Ukraine would take notice and then so would Romania. This is why I think they do not, russian puppets or not, they are under an existential threat. People want to keep their office and benefits before anything. But I agree, they should be neutralized. The Ukrainians might be waiting for them to fire against Moldova so that Romania goes in to close on all sides.
 
Somehow I doubt that. I think its literally very close to the actual lines if not behind them from time to time.

I've not seen anything other than anonymous sources in mainstream media and Russian propaganda claim things like this, so I doubt.
 
I've not seen anything other than anonymous sources in mainstream media and Russian propaganda claim things like this, so I doubt.
Deployment of special operation units usually is not briefed, and "friendly" press that somehow gets wind of it is advised not to publish it. At least that's how I think it goes.
 
Zelenskyy himself confirmed the US' decision to support the jet coalition. Now the question is not if, but when Ukraine get those F-16. There were reports yesterday, that Ukrainian pilots could be trained on them in roughly 4 months.


That could influence and delay the counteroffensive. Why risk those new battalions now, if in less than 6 months you could support them with F-16s?
 
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
 
That could influence and delay the counteroffensive. Why risk those new battalions now, if in less than 6 months you could support them with F-16s?
I wouldn't think so. In 6 months you can always have another counter offensive, just before the winter. They should have already been prepared for the counter, I don't think they should risk having their stocks blown up by Russian missiles.
 
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p

Having a really big army of "soliders" to throw at the enemy, in addition to a lot of military vehicles(not always the highest quality, but sure has quantity) isn't defeated on the fly, you know?

Both can be true, Russia's army can be terrible, but a terrible army that is really, really, big, can take years to defeat.
 
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p
watch out, fellas. We've got a military expert here.
 
I deleted 3 posts because I have absolutely no intent of getting riled up and involved by immature posts again. Some people’s day only seems to be a success if they manage to ridicule other people. So to the people above, congratulations, you had your fun, I’m out.
 
I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p

To be fair, I follow this a lot more closely than you and have a similar opinion sometimes. Given the panic we witnessed last week when Ukraine made a few small pushes around Bakhmut, it does give the impression Russian forces could crumble at the first sign of a major offensive and they are just waiting to be defeated.

However, the most precious asset for Ukraine is its people, which just happens to be the most expendable for Russia. Ukraine will bide its time and do this in the least costly and least risky way they can. It's possible they could make decisive moves this year to put an end to this, but don't hold your breath.
 
Yep seems like it's official now

This was always going to happen.

It’s a bit like dating a girl, seeing how far you can go. First few dates it’s a snog and bum grab. A couple of weeks later you’re fisting her ass.
 
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I deleted 3 posts because I have absolutely no intent of getting riled up and involved by immature posts again. Some people’s day only seems to be a success if they manage to ridicule other people. So to the people above, congratulations, you had your fun, I’m out.

What? Look at my post, how was that meant to rile you up, or being offensive?

Was just a standard post, thats all.
 
Deployment of special operation units usually is not briefed, and "friendly" press that somehow gets wind of it is advised not to publish it. At least that's how I think it goes.

I agree, its just not something we can know either way and I prefer to ignore "friendly" press quoting anonymous sources who's editors are only employed to publish stories that get good clicks and views at the end of the day. Its too easy for them to bullshit, or at least publish rumours with no actual verification.