Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[the hea]

I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p

The Russian army is definitely not the second army in the world that they drumed them self up to be before the war and they are not performing to the standards most experts expected from them but neither are they a paper tiger.
They have a massive amount of tanks, artillery, rocket launchers, AA systems, standoff weapons, electronic warfare systems etc available to them and some of these sytems are very advanced and well working, others maybe not so good.
The main reason they failed early on is because they where unable to conduct high maneuver combined arms operations but they learned their leason and adapted to a more slow attrition based tactic which has made the battlefield much more even.

If you want to read more about the Russian capabilities and tactics and how they have changed in the last year this excelent analysis was released today by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

 

[4bars]

I agree with @wangyu in the point that the media is so skewed that I doubt that there is much truth on what they say. Then @Ragnar123 "will notice me" and will insinuate that I don't support Ukraine. All the western media only say inflated numbers of how good Ukraine is doing and how bad russia is doing. Guess what, Russia is doing the same and is accused from the west to manipulate russians, guess what, they do the same.

In my opinion, truth lays in the middle and hopefully a bit towards Ukraine truth side because I believe there is still freedom of press in the west at least more than in russsia and you can catch some reality. But if we read all we had been fed (Russia stocks would not last 2 months at the beginning, Putin will not dare to a mobilization, Ukranian winter clothes are much better and they will be able to advance in winter, etc...), it would seem that russia has no chance but there it is with its territories invaded. Don't get me wrong, Ukraine had done an amazing feat holding how it did till now and I am wholeheartedly hope for a very successful counterattack. But this doesn't change the fact that there is so much propaganda in the conflict that in a way I understand because is another war weapon for the morale. And if it works to get a high morale among the ukranian troops and helps them to die less and reconquer more territory so be it. But certainly, there are many untruth on the media in this conflicts and certainly data about how ukraine is performing that they don't tell us.

 

[VorZakone]

I agree with @wangyu in the point that the media is so skewed that I doubt that there is much truth on what they say. Then @Ragnar123 "will notice me" and will insinuate that I don't support Ukraine. All the western media only say inflated numbers of how good Ukraine is doing and how bad russia is doing. Guess what, Russia is doing the same and is accused from the west to manipulate russians, guess what, they do the same.

In my opinion, truth lays in the middle and hopefully a bit towards Ukraine truth side because I believe there is still freedom of press in the west at least more than in russsia and you can catch some reality. But if we read all we had been fed (Russia stocks would not last 2 months at the beginning, Putin will not dare to a mobilization, Ukranian winter clothes are much better and they will be able to advance in winter, etc...), it would seem that russia has no chance but there it is with its territories invaded. Don't get me wrong, Ukraine had done an amazing feat holding how it did till now and I am wholeheartedly hope for a very successful counterattack. But this doesn't change the fact that there is so much propaganda in the conflict that in a way I understand because is another war weapon for the morale. And if it works to get a high morale among the ukranian troops and helps them to die less and reconquer more territory so be it. But certainly, there are many untruth on the media in this conflicts and certainly data about how ukraine is performing that they don't tell us.

It seems to me your whole framing of this is a bit odd. The media can interview experts. These experts give their analysis. That analysis can turn out to be wrong. And often it is wrong, because war is quite chaotic and unpredictable. But the point remains: the media can and will interview experts, that is their job.

And as far as I can tell, very few pretend to be all-wise. Most are cautious, and acknowledge Ukraine's weaknesses and remaining Russian strengths, and coming challenges for the Ukrainian military.

I also don't really see these inflated numbers other than from the Ukrainians. Estimates from Western officials, as reported in the media, tend to be more conservative than what the Ukrainians report.

I do sympathize with the argument that problems in the Russian military might get over-exaggerated to the point that people believe Russia will crumble any day now. For example, I don't doubt there are morale problems in the Russian army. But we are still seeing many Russian soldiers fight to the death so don't expect half of the Russian military to desert or some shit like that. That's not gonna happen.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

Blinken a strong factor it seems.

 

[4bars]

It seems to me your whole framing of this is a bit odd. The media can interview experts. These experts give their analysis. That analysis can turn out to be wrong. And often it is wrong, because war is quite chaotic and unpredictable. But the point remains: the media can and will interview experts, that is their job.

And as far as I can tell, very few pretend to be all-wise. Most are cautious, and acknowledge Ukraine's weaknesses and remaining Russian strengths, and coming challenges for the Ukrainian military.

I also don't really see these inflated numbers other than from the Ukrainians. Estimates from Western officials, as reported in the media, tend to be more conservative than what the Ukrainians report.

I do sympathize with the argument that problems in the Russian military might get over-exaggerated to the point that people believe Russia will crumble any day now. For example, I don't doubt there are morale problems in the Russian army. But we are still seeing many Russian soldiers fight to the death so don't expect half of the Russian military to desert or some shit like that. That's not gonna happen.

I understand that experts give their analysis and they can fail on them. Specially in something so complex as a war and with its fog but IMO there is too much assertiveness in those and in my selfishness i get frustrated because i really want ukraine to win. And full me one is on me but full me twice is n me and i have grown too distrustful in the media more than experts because is the media that with a megafone + ecochamber without triple checking they give voice to the article/opinion that suits best the narrative to ukraine is nailing it and russia sucks while no giving much attention the ones that are reasonably weary being experts themselves.

I aknowledge that is my problem, but i take with a pinch of salt what i see in this conflict and in the end your last parragraf is the tone where i agree with but i have the feeling that many people think that its a given that ukraine will steamroll russia at some point and i blame the news/social media narrative and if it doesnt, what? Frustration = less support for ukraine

 

[The United]

I agree with @wangyu in the point that the media is so skewed that I doubt that there is much truth on what they say. Then @Ragnar123 "will notice me" and will insinuate that I don't support Ukraine. All the western media only say inflated numbers of how good Ukraine is doing and how bad russia is doing. Guess what, Russia is doing the same and is accused from the west to manipulate russians, guess what, they do the same.

In my opinion, truth lays in the middle and hopefully a bit towards Ukraine truth side because I believe there is still freedom of press in the west at least more than in russsia and you can catch some reality. But if we read all we had been fed (Russia stocks would not last 2 months at the beginning, Putin will not dare to a mobilization, Ukranian winter clothes are much better and they will be able to advance in winter, etc...), it would seem that russia has no chance but there it is with its territories invaded. Don't get me wrong, Ukraine had done an amazing feat holding how it did till now and I am wholeheartedly hope for a very successful counterattack. But this doesn't change the fact that there is so much propaganda in the conflict that in a way I understand because is another war weapon for the morale. And if it works to get a high morale among the ukranian troops and helps them to die less and reconquer more territory so be it. But certainly, there are many untruth on the media in this conflicts and certainly data about how ukraine is performing that they don't tell us.

To be fair, most of us only have access to the side that continues to feed us positive and uplifting news. What annoys me is that some posters would come in and post about how UA has been trained to become a NATO-standard army and equipped fully with NATO weapons after 10 months into the war. Then there is stuff like how RA could not get more men or their supplies would run out in a few months, which was months ago, etc. When you challenge them because you know that is not what is happening, you get told that you believe the Kremlin propaganda.

The RA troops are bad, and numbers alone cannot win the war, etc., yet that number is keeping them alive in this. My focus is usually drawn to what the UA is up to and how adept they have become at repelling all of these human wave attacks. They were not exactly great in the beginning (not as bad as the RA) for obvious reasons. They are getting better and so are RA troops up to some level. The RA has made it clear that they will not stop till their casualty rate exceeds what it is currently. It'll be bloody for some time yet, and I hope UA is prepared and has enough equipment (and support because Trump, 2024, budget bla bla). We just have to ignore the rest of the stuff that people, including experts, spout on a regular basis.

 

[4bars]

To be fair, most of us only have access to the side that continues to feed us positive and uplifting news. What annoys me is that some posters would come in and post about how UA has been trained to become a NATO-standard army and equipped fully with NATO weapons after 10 months into the war. Then there is stuff like how RA could not get more men or their supplies would run out in a few months, which was months ago, etc. When you challenge them because you know that is not what is happening, you get told that you believe the Kremlin propaganda.

The RA troops are bad, and numbers alone cannot win the war, etc., yet that number is keeping them alive in this. My focus is usually drawn to what the UA is up to and how adept they have become at repelling all of these human wave attacks. They were not exactly great in the beginning (not as bad as the RA) for obvious reasons. They are getting better and so are RA troops up to some level. The RA has made it clear that they will not stop till their casualty rate exceeds what it is currently. It'll be bloody for some time yet, and I hope UA is prepared and has enough equipment (and support because Trump, 2024, budget bla bla). We just have to ignore the rest of the stuff that people, including experts, spout on a regular basis.

I have a similar view and sentiment. Some people thinks that on not believing the media you dont want to ukraine to win

 

[Ragnar123]

Fecking hell on earth. How they're still holding on is beyond my comprehension.

 

[the hea]

That could influence and delay the counteroffensive. Why risk those new battalions now, if in less than 6 months you could support them with F-16s?

I think you are being a bit to optimistic with the 6 months, countries agreeing to start the training of pilots is a good start but it's only a first step and there is still a lot of things that needs to be solved.

Where are the planes comming from?

Where are the spare parts comming from? I think this will be a major issue, fighter jets go through a shit ton of spare parts and with the F-16 being one of the most commonly used jets in the world today there is already a very high demand for spare parts.

Mechanichs training. This is probably a bigger task than retraining current Ukrainian MIG and Sukhoi pilots to operate f-16's.

Ground support crew training.

Airfield infrastruture. Ukraines old Soviet era planes are designed to operate from much harsher conditions compared to most western fighters who require long and smooth surfaces for their take offs and landings. Will Ukraine be able to improve their airfields to be able to operate F-16's and will they be able to protect them? These improved airfield will become high priority targets for Russia and even one cruise missile hit to an airstrip could ground a large part of the fleet for a long time.

Secure communications between aircrews and groundpersonal needs to be put in place and a way for their new western fighters to communicate with the older Soviet planes needs to be implamented.

If they are to be used in a ground attack role JTACs need to be trained and secure communications between them and the aircrews needs to be made available.

Now all of this is possible but to me 6 months sounds a litle to optimistic.

 

[Spark]

I think you are being a bit to optimistic with the 6 months, countries agreeing to start the training of pilots is a good start but it's only a first step and there is still a lot of things that needs to be solved.

Where are the planes comming from?

Where are the spare parts comming from? I think this will be a major issue, fighter jets go through a shit ton of spare parts and with the F-16 being one of the most commonly used jets in the world today there is already a very high demand for spare parts.

Mechanichs training. This is probably a bigger task than retraining current Ukrainian MIG and Sukhoi pilots to operate f-16's.

Ground support crew training.

Airfield infrastruture. Ukraines old Soviet era planes are designed to operate from much harsher conditions compared to most western fighters who require long and smooth surfaces for their take offs and landings. Will Ukraine be able to improve their airfields to be able to operate F-16's and will they be able to protect them? These improved airfield will become high priority targets for Russia and even one cruise missile hit to an airstrip could ground a large part of the fleet for a long time.

Secure communications between aircrews and groundpersonal needs to be put in place and a way for their new western fighters to communicate with the older Soviet planes needs to be implamented.

If they are to be used in a ground attack role JTACs need to be trained and secure communications between them and the aircrews needs to be made available.

Now all of this is possible but to me 6 months sounds a litle to optimistic.

This is all correct, I just think that they’ve been sorting all this out for the last few months anyway. The announcement isn’t the beginning, it’s towards the end of the process.

The biggest fear is that the air fields will get blown up by Russia. I think what we’ve been seeing is a deliberate strategy of giving certain weapons in certain order, in the hope the UA can contain Russia for as long as possible. No point giving 4th gen fighters if Ukraine has no air defence.

This is all following a timeline, the bluster is all noise.

 

[the hea]

This is all correct, I just think that they’ve been sorting all this out for the last few months anyway. The announcement isn’t the beginning, it’s towards the end of the process.

I hope so and it doesn't make sense to remove some of Ukraines much needed pilots from the battle for training unless fighters are on the way.
Maybe it's just me being overly pessimistic but remembering the problems the US had with keeping the F16's given to Iraq flying I think some pessimism regarding that timeframe is warranted.

 

[buchansleftleg]

Ive been hopping on planes from UK airports in last few days and there has been a noticably large amount of groups of 3 Ukrainian men, casually dressed in sportswear and only having hand luggage, travelling out to eastern European destinations on scheduled flights.

They all look to be in tremendous spirits and are trying to blend in with other tourists....might be some interesting developments in the next few days.

 

[Spark]

I hope so and it doesn't make sense to remove some of Ukraines much needed pilots from the battle for training unless fighters are on the way.
Maybe it's just me being overly pessimistic but remembering the problems the US had with keeping the F16's given to Iraq flying I think some pessimism regarding that timeframe is warranted.

Yeah totally and everything is done against the backdrop of internal politics - split across every single nation supporting Ukraine. So it’s a clusterfeck.

However, one thing the allied nations have done surprisingly well since Jan 2022 is control the narrative and build a trustful coalition expertly. From dropping the intel that Russia was going to invade, to then arranging sanctions (while not perfect, still far more impressive than anything that could have been expected before the war), to arranging military aid, to NATO standard MANPADS, HIMARS, air defence, tanks and now storm shadow and seemingly F16s - they’ve consistently delivered everything to roughly the same timeline. I.e. first it gets spoken about, then denied, then bounced about until eventually it’s approved. The whole purpose of that charade - in my opinion (maybe giving them too much credit, but it would make sense) is to a) “boil the frog” i.e. make it totally natural to the world and to Russia by the time it’s delivered and b) give time to sort strategy, tactics, training and logistics. The US will have wanted Ukraine to have F16s 10 years ago, they’ve just waited until the moment they consider right - which is now.

This won’t be the end either. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if we’re onto submarines by 2025. Ukraine will be a significant European military power - probably rivalling Turkey - extremely soon. Once the war is over it’ll make the black sea and potentially the caucuses very interesting.

 

[calodo2003]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Simbo]

Pretty specific kind of training.

 

[Ragnar123]

Seems like Wagner has finally taken Bakhmut after destroying every house in the city. Let's see how long they are able to live in the rubble until the counteroffensive will push them out again. The worst "win" in a war I can think of right now. Wasted tens of thousands of men and huge amount of ammunition and equipment in a 1 year long battle and made that city uninhabitable in the process.
This shows perfectly what kind of a country russia is. They neither care for their own people, nor for the people they want to "liberate". All they do is turning civilization into a wasteland.

 

[Ragnar123]

I think you are being a bit to optimistic with the 6 months, countries agreeing to start the training of pilots is a good start but it's only a first step and there is still a lot of things that needs to be solved.

Let's see. According to Ukrainian M.o.D they'll get them this fall. The timing is also very favourable right now, because many countries exchange their F-16 for the F-35. I'm sure there will be enough jets available for purchase.

 

[devilish]

I read what’s in the newspapers everyday and it baffles me that Ukraine still hasn’t won the war. The press daily writes about the Russian incompetence and failed invasion.
I’ve seen the numbers of material losses and casualties it is immense, Ukraine keeps getting ammunition and modern weaponry while apparently the Russians only have updated old sovjet weapons. It seems the Russian army is nothing but a paper tiger with old weapons and no discipline.
To me it appears the Russian army could crumble at any moment. Especially now that their supposedly perfect modern rockets all get intercepted by Ukraine self defence.
So unless the press is exaggerating I fully expect this war to be over this year.

I’m looking forward to see the aftermath develop, what will happen with Russia and Putin? Will it splinter like Yugoslavia?
If it does I hope all the new nations won’t apply with UEFA, the European zone is already riddled with poor quality footballing nations as it is but that’s completely off topic :-p

That is why you need to find factual information that isn't tinged with propaganda from either way of the spectrum

 

[calodo2003]

Seems like Wagner has finally taken Bakhmut after destroying every house in the city. Let's see how long they are able to live in the rubble until the counteroffensive will push them out again. The worst "win" in a war I can think of right now. Wasted tens of thousands of men and huge amount of ammunition and equipment in a 1 year long battle and made that city uninhabitable in the process.
This shows perfectly what kind of a country russia is. They neither care for their own people, nor for the people they want to "liberate". All they do is turning civilization into a wasteland.

The quintessential pyrrhic victory.

 

[Raoul]

Seems like Wagner has finally taken Bakhmut after destroying every house in the city. Let's see how long they are able to live in the rubble until the counteroffensive will push them out again. The worst "win" in a war I can think of right now. Wasted tens of thousands of men and huge amount of ammunition and equipment in a 1 year long battle and made that city uninhabitable in the process.
This shows perfectly what kind of a country russia is. They neither care for their own people, nor for the people they want to "liberate". All they do is turning civilization into a wasteland.

One would expect Prigozhin to claim victory. Might want to wait until there's more corroborating information since the Ukrainians still claim they're fighting.

 

[Cheimoon]

That is why you need to find factual information that isn't tinged with propaganda from either way of the spectrum

As if that exists.

Well, tiny facts, sure (a tank was destroyed, a rocket was fired, etc.). But for meaningful developments, there is no such thing available as a neutral, objective source. (Arguably never, but here least of all.)

 

[devilish]

As if that exists.

Well, tiny facts, sure (a tank was destroyed, a rocket was fired, etc.). But for meaningful developments, there is no such thing available as a neutral, objective source. (Arguably never, but here least of all.)

I rely on two sources ie two Italian youtube channels. They work in tandem together. Mirko Campochiari is my favourite speaker. He is an Italian of Polish origins, with huge links to journalists who spend months in both sides of Ukraine. They also invite many military experts most of whom having worked with NATO. Italy has a history of being the Walder Frey of politics ie they basically unified the country by having their ally win wars on their behalf. In fact Bismarck once told them that they are the country of the tree 'S' ie Solferino (1859), Sadowa (1866) and Sedan (1870). The former was won by the French while the last two by the Prussians. In all wars the Italians had tanked on the battlefield but still ended up at the winners side thus adding more territory to their country. Such history and mentality allow the Italians to have a quite a critical, dry and cynical view about war

Regarding Ukraine many statements can be true at the same time. Its true that Russian armies are incompetent (although they are improving) and that modern weaponry in certain sectors are running dry. However its also true that they have a huge population, they are the only ones (alongside Ukraine) that are in war economy, they inherited an almost endless supply of Soviet ammunition, tanks etc and very few country have the same experience in tanking loses like the Russian people. This nation lost millions of people in WW1 and WW2. Ukraine's population is relatively small, the West is poorly stocked and while Western technology is usually better then that currently used by the Russians we're basically giving Ukraine the trimmings to fight with.

 

[Ragnar123]

Seems like Russians have run out of boots.

 

[wangyu]

@devilish

How can the West be poorly stocked when I read about new packages of hundreds of millions euros of equipment for Ukraine on a monthly basis? At the same time the Wagner boss laments the lack of ammunition for his troops.

As for that Russian claim of taking Bachmut, how is that possible when the Russians according to the Western press had to concede several square kilometers the last 2 weeks?

I’m sorry but this is all very confusing and I personally don’t know what to believe anymore.

 

[stefan92]

@devilish

How can the West be poorly stocked when I read about new packages of hundreds of millions euros of equipment for Ukraine on a monthly basis? At the same time the Wagner boss laments the lack of ammunition for his troops.

As for that Russian claim of taking Bachmut, how is that possible when the Russians according to the Western press had to concede several square kilometers the last 2 weeks?

I’m sorry but this is all very confusing and I personally don’t know what to believe anymore.

Ukraine is losing the city itself, but retaking areas around the city, fields and hills.

 

[devilish]

@devilish

How can the West be poorly stocked when I read about new packages of hundreds of millions euros of equipment for Ukraine on a monthly basis? At the same time the Wagner boss laments the lack of ammunition for his troops.

As for that Russian claim of taking Bachmut, how is that possible when the Russians according to the Western press had to concede several square kilometers the last 2 weeks?

I’m sorry but this is all very confusing and I personally don’t know what to believe anymore.

First of all I am not a military expert. I am forwarding what I hear so please don't shoot the messenger

A- The West as a whole is poorly stocked. Its been a long long time since we got involved into a huge war and most European countries have grown complacent. Germany and Italy in particular are a mess. The rest rely hugely on private contractors who refuse to up their production too much because they don't want to open new factories which would become redundant once the war is over. Also the Russian-Ukraine war is an old type of war that would never happen if the West was involved. It lack air superiority and is therefore slow, sluggish and hugely ammo (ex artillery) heavy. That burns resources like mad. Italy wouldn't survive a week in a war like that of Ukraine. That's what Ukraine has been begging for F16s, MBTs etc. They want to fight the NATO way were everything (jets, drones, tanks, infantry and artillery) work together thus pushing for a swift, cost effective and less labour intensive style of warfare.

B- War requires a huge variety of assets from jets, to artillery, from tanks to people etc. One can have ample supply of something and a lack of something else. Russia still hold a huge supply of old (but still valid) tanks from the 70s and artillery shells inherited by the Soviet Union. Regarding Wagner Prigoshin is a bit like Icarus. He's flying too close to the sun by criticising the same people whom he relying heavily on ammo etc. I wouldn't exclude the Russian version of the night of the long knives

 

[Krakenzero]

IIRC the UA succeeded at avoiding getting encircled, which would have been terrible. Nevertheless they have been very slowly pushed out of Bahkmut, at the cost of heavy losses for the RA throughout more than nine months so far.

Concerning news on the war the most reliable information is esentially the changes in the maps of the different battlefronts. In which we have seen Russia making huge progress in the first two months of the invasion but failing to get Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa. The next year of the conflict have seen Ukraine slowly recovering territory and gaining the upper hand, and Russian failing to consolidate further advances and/or conduct succesful offensives. The next stage of the war will depend mainly in how succesful the UA counteroffensive is, and in how prepared/equipped/motivated both countries are for an attrition war.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[wangyu]

@stefan92 yes makes sense, thanks
@devilish thanks for the reply

I read they lost over 1500 tanks already, that sounds really massive. It is basically NATO fighting Russia with all the help Ukraine gets, in that sense you could say Russia is holding out very well.
If a second front were to open lets say in Macedonia, Chechnya or Georgia surely Russia would not be able to hold Ukraine?!

I remember reading when US troops hastily left and lost Afghanistan the Western powers were on the demise but they really struck back hard now with the Ukraine front while Russia finds it hard to attract real allies.

I think China will think twice before making a move as well.

All in all it looks pretty good (I hope so anyway).

 

[VorZakone]

@stefan92 yes makes sense, thanks
@devilish thanks for the reply

I read they lost over 1500 tanks already, that sounds really massive. It is basically NATO fighting Russia with all the help Ukraine gets, in that sense you could say Russia is holding out very well.
If a second front were to open lets say in Macedonia, Chechnya or Georgia surely Russia would not be able to hold Ukraine?!

I remember reading when US troops hastily left and lost Afghanistan the Western powers were on the demise but they really struck back hard now with the Ukraine front while Russia finds it hard to attract real allies.

I think China will think twice before making a move as well.

All in all it looks pretty good (I hope so anyway).

Eh...no. If it was NATO fighting Russia, Russia would get destroyed in a conventional conflict. We'd see F-35's, aircraft carriers, long-range bombers like B21, you name it. Ukraine is not fighting with those kind of weapons/systems.

 

[wangyu]

Eh...no. If it was NATO fighting Russia, Russia would get destroyed in a conventional conflict. We'd see F-35's, aircraft carriers, long-range bombers like B21, you name it. Ukraine is not fighting with those kind of weapons/systems.

Yes true, I didn’t think that far but then also Russia would be using it’s naval and air force of course which is very sparingly used so far in the current conflict.

 

[devilish]

Eh...no. If it was NATO fighting Russia, Russia would get destroyed in a conventional conflict. We'd see F-35's, aircraft carriers, long-range bombers like B21, you name it. Ukraine is not fighting with those kind of weapons/systems.

At this point even poland on its own could push russia out of Ukraine. The trouble is that russia could still fire missles and launch air raids from its territory. Only a mad man would strike russia hard in its own territory for obvious reasons

 

[Raoul]

What he's not saying is that slow rolling the release of weapons has also prevented Putin from justifying his own use of more destructive weapons in Ukraine, because of the perception the Ukrainians weren't arming themselves with Western weapons very quickly to defeat him.

 

[VorZakone]

Yes true, I didn’t think that far but then also Russia would be using it’s naval and air force of course which is very sparingly used so far in the current conflict.

From what I've read, Russia can't use their air force any better. It doesn't seem to be a matter of using it sparingly. They're just not as well-trained and not as sophisticated as the US air force.

That doesn't mean the Russian air force is weak, make no mistake about that. It just isn't good enough to establish air superiority in Ukraine yet and the odds of that happening decrease as Ukraine receives more Western equipment.

 

[VorZakone]

What he's not saying is that slow rolling the release of weapons has also prevented Putin from justifying his own use of more destructive weapons in Ukraine, because of the perception the Ukrainians weren't arming themselves with Western weapons very quickly to defeat him.

Fair point.

 

[Lemoor]

the West is poorly stocked

Russia still hold a huge supply of old (but still valid) tanks from the 70s and artillery shells inherited by the Soviet Union.

How are those things estimated?

 

[wangyu]

What kind of weapons not yet used (other than nucleair weapons) could Russia use if it deems the Western’s help as a serious enough escalation to justify using them?

 

[the hea]

How can the West be poorly stocked when I read about new packages of hundreds of millions euros of equipment for Ukraine on a monthly basis? At the same time the Wagner boss laments the lack of ammunition for his troops.

As for that Russian claim of taking Bachmut, how is that possible when the Russians according to the Western press had to concede several square kilometers the last 2 weeks?

I’m sorry but this is all very confusing and I personally don’t know what to believe anymore.

A few hundred million doesn't last long in a war on this scale, the frontline is over 1000 km long with constant battles between hundreds of thousands of troops, just the cost for ammunition is massive and when you add in all the equipment to that a couple of hundreds of millions doesn't go far.
When Prighozin whines about a lack of ammunition it doesn't mean they don't have any ammunition at all it just means that they are not getting as much as they used to. They have still had a massive artillery advantage in Bakhmut for the last months.
Russia used approximately 12 million artillery shells in 2022, this year they are trending towards 7 million if the current rate of fire is maintained for the reminder of the year. Compare that to the couple of hundred thousand shells the EU are giving whenever they can get their hands on something and you can understand why people think they are poorly stocked.