Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[harms]

I stopped watching TV rain some time ago but for me as you say the biggest issue is that all these “opposition” channels tend to as you say focus on issues from regular Russian perspective instead of drilling the real messages home even if those completely contradict their propaganda influenced view of reality and will push the viewers away.

They have fired the guy just now. Not sure what reaction I've expected from them, especially since I doubt that he went rogue on live TV, but I guess it's a decent gesture from their part.

 

[Zen86]

Everyone knows there’s no backsies on renouncing aggression

 

[Lemoor]

Everyone knows there’s no backsies on renouncing aggression

Scholz will personally force him to do a pinky promise.

 

[TwoSheds]

Apparently the BASF plant in Germany on its own uses more natural gas than the entirety of Switzerland. Ever since the financial crisis and before German politics has been incredibly self interested and myopic. Any kindnesses to other eurozone countries and beyond have only been about maintaining stability and success in Germany. The exception might be their acceptance of refugees but even that was likely decided on an economic basis as much as it was humanitarian.

Hopefully ordinary German people will see the folly in trying to cling on to an unsustainable model and that their economy needs to be reoriented around cleaner domestic sources of energy, but I won't hold my breath. The good thing about their politics is at least they also have green voices in the room and other competing ideas making up the government and it's not winner takes all dipshittery like in the UK.

 

[Rajma]

They have fired the guy just now. Not sure what reaction I've expected from them, especially since I doubt that he went rogue on live TV, but I guess it's a decent gesture from their part.

You don’t need to look far to understand how Putin regime should be fought in the right way if you’re in the opposition. Look no further than Kasparov.

 

[stefan92]

The exception might be their acceptance of refugees but even that was likely decided on an economic basis as much as it was humanitarian.

Th way that was done created a huge economical burden, it would have needed to be dealt with quite differently to be anything other than humanitarian.

Apparently the BASF plant in Germany on its own uses more natural gas than the entirety of Switzerland.

[...]

Hopefully ordinary German people will see the folly in trying to cling on to an unsustainable model and that their economy needs to be reoriented around cleaner domestic sources of energy, but I won't hold my breath.

The idea was that gas is cleaner than coal, reducing gas usage currently means burning more coal which is the only readily available fuel for existing powerplants.

But more gas is used in private households than for powerplants anyway (mostly for heating), so getting rid of gas means changing stuff in the majority of German private houses - which will obviously take a lot of time. Currently if you want a modern heat pump system installed in your house you have to wait 6-12 months, and that's without a big effort to renovate older houses, that's mostly just for new buildings.

And regarding BASF etc you seem to misunderstand what they are needing gas for - not as an energy source, but as a raw material for chemical reactions. At some point the world as a while will need to completely redesign it's chemical industries, but so far there simply doesn't exist a solution to get rid of gas an ingredient to most processes.

 

[TwoSheds]

Th way that was done created a huge economical burden, it would have needed to be dealt with quite differently to be anything other than humanitarian.


The idea was that gas is cleaner than coal, reducing gas usage currently means burning more coal which is the only readily available fuel for existing powerplants.

But more gas is used in private households than for powerplants anyway (mostly for heating), so getting rid of gas means changing stuff in the majority of German private houses - which will obviously take a lot of time. Currently if you want a modern heat pump system installed in your house you have to wait 6-12 months, and that's without a big effort to renovate older houses, that's mostly just for new buildings.

And regarding BASF etc you seem to misunderstand what they are needing gas for - not as an energy source, but as a raw material for chemical reactions. At some point the world as a while will need to completely redesign it's chemical industries, but so far there simply doesn't exist a solution to get rid of gas an ingredient to most processes.

Yes but synthetic fuels, biogas, landfill gas, things like that are what they need to work on for chemical feedstock. They can't just try to go back to the heyday of cheap Russian natural gas as a) it's not sustainable environmentally and b) it's not sustainable geopolitically/economically. Fundamentally more clean, domestically sourced, secure energy is the way to secure the future of their industry.

And ref the immigration, an extra several million young workers will prove to be a great boon for the German economy and public services in the next few decades regardless of the initial costs.

 

[harms]

You don’t need to look far to understand how Putin regime should be fought in the right way if you’re in the opposition. Look no further than Kasparov.

I'm not sure if Kasparov does anything that really helps to fight the regime.

Said harms, the famous revolutionist.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[Raoul]

If the Russians are resorting to this sort of thing it must mean they are on the brink of losing.

 

[Raoul]

Nothing will come of any meeting with Putin.

 

[VorZakone]

If the Russians are resorting to this sort of thing it must mean they are on the brink of losing.

Not sure about brink of losing but it gave me Godfather horsehead vibes.

 

[Raoul]

Not sure about brink of losing but it gave me Godfather horsehead vibes.

It could also mean their intelligence services have been told to do what they can to inflict damage on any Ukrainian interests, which would be an act of pure late stage desperation in a war they can't wain on the battlefield.

 

[frostbite]

I don't get it. We're talking about a design that is almost half of a century old as the F-16 saw its first flight in 1974 and then entered service in 1978. How can it be more complicated to train engineers and give them what they need for maintenance of F-16s compared to MiG-29s?

Also, if the training of these engineers would have started a long time ago now this stupid excuse would hold any longer but this is being delayed due to some weak hands in WH costing many Ukrainian lives for no good reason.

I have zero experience in maintenance of military equipment, so I really don't know how easy or hard it is.

But I have a little experience with cars. Learning to drive a car is very easy, a month is enough. Now, learning to fix a car? How long do you need to learn? Are a few months, or even a couple of years, enough to be able to fix a car? Now add the war, the mud, the shortages, the difficult conditions... it becomes really complicated.

Now the car is actually simple compared to military equipment. For example, a military jet is subjected to huge forces. From simple Physics, I can guess that if 100 things can go wrong in a car in normal conditions, there are thousands of things that can go wrong in an F-16 in war conditions. And it is not easy to diagnose what is wrong, what has failed, how to take it apart, how to replace the failed part, and how to put it all back. And if you made a mistake, the flying jet is not like a car where you will call to be towed to a mechanic.

 

[Raoul]

I'm not sure if Kasparov does anything that really helps to fight the regime.

Said harms, the famous revolutionist.

He does his fare share in making the rounds on prominent podcasts and TV shows to galvanize Western sentiment on Putin from an expat perspective. Its good to have a few of these guys on prominent western shows.

 

[Red Rash]

What is the logic behind this? Russia is selling to third countries who are the reselling to the west? The idea being if the west caps the amount they will pay it will lower demand from the third country unless Russia drops prices?

 

[NotThatSoph]

What is the logic behind this? Russia is selling to third countries who are the reselling to the west? The idea being if the west caps the amount they will pay it will lower demand from the third country unless Russia drops prices?

According to Financial Times the mechanism is that tankers transporting oil sold for above that price won't be able to buy insurance from Western companies, so if third world countries want to buy oil for above the cap it'll either be uninsured or with insurance from someone else.

 

[frostbite]

Related to the maintenance problems I mentioned above, the guy in that article said that the M777 is like a bicycle compared to the complexity of an F-16.

And it seems that there are serious problems in the maintenance of the M777s in Ukraine...


https://eurasiantimes.com/m-777-howitzers-are-breaking-down-in-ukraine-war/

M-777s Are ‘Falling Apart’ In Ukraine War; EUCOM Sets Up Repair Facility For US, Other Western Howitzers In Poland

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html

Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.

Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland

 

[frostbite]

Personally, I have always felt that the most logical explanation for the baffling German behaviour in the first few months of this war, but also in the past 20 years regarding Russia... well the most logical explanation for me is that there is deep corruption in the German State, that Russian money has influenced key German politicians, either directly or indirectly. I have no proof, and other posters told me I am wrong, which is quite possible, I have been wrong in many things in the past, perhaps the underlying reason is not corruption but just "miscalculation"... but I am not sure...

Here is an interesting story:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/europe/germany-russia-nord-stream-pipeline.html

Shadowy Arm of a German State Helped Russia Finish Nord Stream 2

The threat of U.S. sanctions jeopardized completion of a second direct gas pipeline from Russia. So Gazprom and German officials concocted a phony climate foundation to get the job done.

[...]

The pipeline was a priority for Moscow and Berlin alike, with German officials from both major parties acting as eager cheerleaders.

Nowhere was that more obvious than in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, one of Germany’s poorest states and once part of the former Communist East, where both pipelines come ashore. Older generations there grew up on Soviet culture, and still remember when America was the enemy and Moscow the protector.

Mr. Sellering and his successor as governor, Manuela Schwesig, were allies of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a fellow Social Democrat, personal friend of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and lobbyist for Russian energy companies.

Mr. Schröder’s conservative successor, Angela Merkel, whose constituency was in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, approved Nord Stream 2 after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, and defended it even after Moscow hacked the German Parliament, assassinated a Chechen rebel in central Berlin and poisoned the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.

Before the war, the current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called Nord Stream 2 a “private-sector project” and last year, when he was finance minister, he personally wrote to his U.S. counterpart to demand a stop to sanctions. (In October, Mr. Scholz claimed that he “was always sure” that Mr. Putin would “use energy supplies as a weapon.”)

[...]

 

[Red Rash]

According to Financial Times the mechanism is that tankers transporting oil sold for above that price won't be able to buy insurance from Western companies, so if third world countries want to buy oil for above the cap it'll either be uninsured or with insurance from someone else.

Ok thanks for the explanation, I guess the plan is to try and get third countries to buy at the cap too then

 

[Simbo]

Personally, I have always felt that the most logical explanation for the baffling German behaviour in the first few months of this war, but also in the past 20 years regarding Russia... well the most logical explanation for me is that there is deep corruption in the German State, that Russian money has influenced key German politicians, either directly or indirectly. I have no proof, and other posters told me I am wrong, which is quite possible, I have been wrong in many things in the past, perhaps the underlying reason is not corruption but just "miscalculation"... but I am not sure...

Here is an interesting story:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/europe/germany-russia-nord-stream-pipeline.html

Shadowy Arm of a German State Helped Russia Finish Nord Stream 2

The threat of U.S. sanctions jeopardized completion of a second direct gas pipeline from Russia. So Gazprom and German officials concocted a phony climate foundation to get the job done.

[...]

The pipeline was a priority for Moscow and Berlin alike, with German officials from both major parties acting as eager cheerleaders.

Nowhere was that more obvious than in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, one of Germany’s poorest states and once part of the former Communist East, where both pipelines come ashore. Older generations there grew up on Soviet culture, and still remember when America was the enemy and Moscow the protector.

Mr. Sellering and his successor as governor, Manuela Schwesig, were allies of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a fellow Social Democrat, personal friend of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and lobbyist for Russian energy companies.

Mr. Schröder’s conservative successor, Angela Merkel, whose constituency was in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, approved Nord Stream 2 after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, and defended it even after Moscow hacked the German Parliament, assassinated a Chechen rebel in central Berlin and poisoned the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.

Before the war, the current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called Nord Stream 2 a “private-sector project” and last year, when he was finance minister, he personally wrote to his U.S. counterpart to demand a stop to sanctions. (In October, Mr. Scholz claimed that he “was always sure” that Mr. Putin would “use energy supplies as a weapon.”)

[...]

I've always believed (since 2014 at least when I started taking an interest) that Russian corruption and influence is vast and operates in any country of relevance. They've been moving $billions around the world for decades, any sizable money laundering story you can dig up will have a Russian involved. Then you read about all the territories around the world that seemingly exist to hide corrupt money. All the webs of shell companies and trust funds that can transfer wealth to anybody with ease, in secret.

I post some wacky theories on this forum sometimes, but its with the above in mind and the feeling I have that high level organised crime plays some governments like a fiddle, with the freedom and funds they have. Russian leadership is a Mafia, one with the power of a superpowers' intelligence services that fought the cold war. The KGB didn't diminish when the Soviet Union collapsed, they just changed their name a sucked up the entire countries wealth.

 

[the hea]

Related to the maintenance problems I mentioned above, the guy in that article said that the M777 is like a bicycle compared to the complexity of an F-16.

And it seems that there are serious problems in the maintenance of the M777s in Ukraine...


https://eurasiantimes.com/m-777-howitzers-are-breaking-down-in-ukraine-war/

M-777s Are ‘Falling Apart’ In Ukraine War; EUCOM Sets Up Repair Facility For US, Other Western Howitzers In Poland

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html

Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.

Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland

All types of tube artillery needs to have their tubes replaced after a certain number of charges so this should have been no surprise to anyone.

From my understanding the main problem with the 155mm artillery wear in Ukraine was that the western cannons where being overused when they first arrived in the early summer. The wear on a hot barrell is much higher then on a cold one and the Ukrainians fired way to many charges per day during the first months after they received them, this resulted in a very high wear on the tubes that is now making a lot of them unusable.

 

[frostbite]

I also believe that Putin is quite smart. So, why did he fail? How could Putin miscalculate so badly? I believe that Putin miscalculated only one thing: Biden.

I think Putin knew that the Germans would not be a factor, they would not help Ukraine. And he knew that the Germans can vastly influence the rest of the EU, so the EU would not be a factor either. Fears of "escalation", of energy dependance, of World War 3, of economy ... the 27 countries of the EU would talk and talk and talk, and do nothing. Then Britain has its problems with Brexit, and it is too weak to do anything anyway.

Putin knew that the only one who can do anything to help Ukraine is America. But America has its own problems, it is divided, Biden is old, he gave up in Afghanistan, actually Biden did not just give up but messed up badly in Afghanistan, Biden is weak, he will have no desire to get involved into another military conflict.


In summary, I believe that the German "neutrality" was the most important factor in Putin's decision to go to war. And the second most important factor was the debacle in Afghanistan. If any of these two factors were not present, we'd not have this war. And Putin's major miscalculation was that he did not expect Biden to actually support Ukraine that much.

 

[Dans]

I've always believed (since 2014 at least when I started taking an interest) that Russian corruption and influence is vast and operates in any country of relevance. They've been moving $billions around the world for decades, any sizable money laundering story you can dig up will have a Russian involved. Then you read about all the territories around the world that seemingly exist to hide corrupt money. All the webs of shell companies and trust funds that can transfer wealth to anybody with ease, in secret.

I post some wacky theories on this forum sometimes, but its with the above in mind and the feeling I have that high level organised crime plays some governments like a fiddle, with the freedom and funds they have. Russian leadership is a Mafia, one with the power of a superpowers' intelligence services that fought the cold war. The KGB didn't diminish when the Soviet Union collapsed, they just changed their name a sucked up the entire countries wealth.

Don't forget London and the conservative party in this thesis.

 

[Simbo]

Don't forget London and the conservative party in this thesis.

Oh I'm not, UK is right at the top of the world's financial secrecy rankings. Brexit was done to protect the offshore territories from the EU's inevitable anti-corruption laws (one of my wacky theories).

 

[the hea]

 

[stefan92]

In October, Mr. Scholz claimed that he “was always sure” that Mr. Putin would “use energy supplies as a weapon.”

It's important to remember that Russia and Ukraine often "discussed " gas transit etc, and Ukraine stole gas intended for Germany. So Nord Stream was a solution for Germany not to be affected by those troubles. Scholz conveniently doesn't mention that he didn't expect Russia to use this weapon against the West as well.

 

[Simbo]

I also believe that Putin is quite smart. So, why did he fail? How could Putin miscalculate so badly? I believe that Putin miscalculated only one thing: Biden.

I think Putin knew that the Germans would not be a factor, they would not help Ukraine. And he knew that the Germans can vastly influence the rest of the EU, so the EU would not be a factor either. Fears of "escalation", of energy dependance, of World War 3, of economy ... the 27 countries of the EU would talk and talk and talk, and do nothing. Then Britain has its problems with Brexit, and it is too weak to do anything anyway.

Putin knew that the only one who can do anything to help Ukraine is America. But America has its own problems, it is divided, Biden is old, he gave up in Afghanistan, actually Biden did not just give up but messed up badly in Afghanistan, Biden is weak, he will have no desire to get involved into another military conflict.


In summary, I believe that the German "neutrality" was the most important factor in Putin's decision to go to war. And the second most important factor was the debacle in Afghanistan. If any of these two factors were not present, we'd not have this war. And Putin's major miscalculation was that he did not expect Biden to actually support Ukraine that much.

He needed to take Kyiv within a couple weeks, that was the plan. Biden turned up for sure, but when? Took a while for military aid to get there in any sizable amounts. Russia couldn't even take Sumy or Kharkiv right on their doorstep, what help was Biden there? US Intelligence helped I'm sure but Ukraine and Ukrainians won this war there and then by holding out. For an unprovoked war by a fascist dictator against a country just fighting for its freedom, in Europe, foreign aid was inevitable. I expect Putin knew that but taking Kyiv straight away, installing a puppet government and taking over all media, would have pretty much given him the country before the US could do anything. He may have been fighting an insurgency and what remained of western Ukraine for a decade, but he'd of got what he wanted.

I can only assume he vastly overestimated his capabilities, militarily, intelligence ops, bribes etc, and underestimated Ukraine.

 

[The United]

Conditions do seem pretty awful right now, I'm sure it's a bit of a waiting game even if they are ready. Temps right now are the worse, 4 degrees during day so overnight frost melts and everything stays damp, muddy & miserable. If they get some solid sub-zero day temps, that may bring some opportunity.

I also think that if they have any combat capability, it should be directed to the south side of Bakhmut first, which they apparently did recently. I'm just playing armchair general here. I think the UKR should take care of their north-east front line first and think about the east after those two cities there.

 

[demetre]

It's important to remember that Russia and Ukraine often "discussed " gas transit etc, and Ukraine stole gas intended for Germany. So Nord Stream was a solution for Germany not to be affected by those troubles. Scholz conveniently doesn't mention that he didn't expect Russia to use this weapon against the West as well.

Where do you get this from?

 

[frostbite]

He needed to take Kyiv within a couple weeks, that was the plan. Biden turned up for sure, but when? Took a while for military aid to get there in any sizable amounts. Russia couldn't even take Sumy or Kharkiv right on their doorstep, what help was Biden there? US Intelligence helped I'm sure but Ukraine and Ukrainians won this war there and then by holding out. For an unprovoked war by a fascist dictator against a country just fighting for its freedom, in Europe, foreign aid was inevitable. I expect Putin knew that but taking Kyiv straight away, installing a puppet government and taking over all media, would have pretty much given him the country before the US could do anything. He may have been fighting an insurgency and what remained of western Ukraine for a decade, but he'd of got what he wanted.

I can only assume he vastly overestimated his capabilities, militarily, intelligence ops, bribes etc, and underestimated Ukraine.

Biden started helping Ukraine long before the invasion. Ukraine would not be able to defend Kiev, if it wasn't for US help. Not only material help, but also intelligence help, satellites, AWACS, training, planning, the full monty.

We have no idea what it was said in discussions between USA and Russia, or USA and Ukraine, or USA and Germany. There are secret discussions all the time, we barely know the surface of what happened. But even this very little that we know, shows clearly that Biden gave full support to Ukraine. Putin underestimated Biden.

Here are some public remarks, on December 8th 2021. Yes, that is almost THREE months before the invasion!

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...esident-biden-before-marine-one-departure-10/

THE PRESIDENT: Shh. Shh. Let me —

In the meeting with Putin, I was very straightforward. There were no minced words.

It was polite, but I made it very clear: If, in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences — severe consequences — and economic consequences like none he’s ever seen or ever have been seen, in terms of being imposed.

He knows. His immediate response was he understood that. And I indicated that I knew he would respond. But beyond that, if, in fact, we would probably also be required to reinforce our — our presence in NATO countries to reassure particularly those on the eastern front.

In addition to that, I made it clear that we would provide the defensive capability to the Ukrainians as well.

 

[frostbite]

If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier, told Putin in no uncertain terms that he will face severe consequences and that Germany will provide full military aid to Ukraine, then we'd probably not have a war today.

If Putin knew that Germany will support Ukraine the same way as, for example, Poland was going to support Ukraine, then Putin would probably have decided that the risk is too high. But Putin knew that Germany would do nothing. France would do nothing. The EU would do nothing. Putin was not afraid of Poland.

Putin's miscalculation was that he underestimated Biden.

 

[frostbite]

Don't forget London and the conservative party in this thesis.

Yes, but the conservatives did help Ukraine. Huge difference between Boris and Scholz. USA had to push Germany a lot before Scholz did anything.

 

[VorZakone]

If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier, told Putin in no uncertain terms that he will face severe consequences and that Germany will provide full military aid to Ukraine, then we'd probably not have a war today.

If Putin knew that Germany will support Ukraine the same way as, for example, Poland was going to support Ukraine, then Putin would probably have decided that the risk is too high. But Putin knew that Germany would do nothing. France would do nothing. The EU would do nothing. Putin was not afraid of Poland.

Putin's miscalculation was that he underestimated Biden.

CIA director said Putin had 4 assumptions:

• Weak Ukraine.
• Weak Western support.
• Sanctions-proof economy.
• Strong and modern Russian military.

 

[nimic]

If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier, told Putin in no uncertain terms that he will face severe consequences and that Germany will provide full military aid to Ukraine, then we'd probably not have a war today.

If Putin knew that Germany will support Ukraine the same way as, for example, Poland was going to support Ukraine, then Putin would probably have decided that the risk is too high. But Putin knew that Germany would do nothing. France would do nothing. The EU would do nothing. Putin was not afraid of Poland.

Putin's miscalculation was that he underestimated Biden.

The US is massively ahead on supporting Ukraine materially, obviously (having 40% the entire world's military spending), but it's just a little bit ridiculous to say that Germany, France and the EU as a whole have done nothing.

 

[frostbite]

The US is massively ahead on supporting Ukraine materially, obviously (having 40% the entire world's military spending), but it's just a little bit ridiculous to say that Germany, France and the EU as a whole have done nothing.

In December 2021?

 

[nimic]

In December 2021?

What?

 

[frostbite]

What?

The post you quoted said: If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier,