He made a qualified guess (he even admitted that) which ended up with him breaking Sir Alex' retirement. He followed that up with being Moyes' lapdog but was left completely out of the loop after LvG was appointed.
I don't even think it was a qualified guess. I think Moyes leaked it to him giving him the scoop of his life, knowing full well he was going to need some friends in the media. He then continued to brief him for the duration of his tenure.
I can't find it now but there was an Ogden interview on Republic of Mancunia, Red Issue or Stretford-End.com (or the like) where he admitted that Moyes used to meet him and another journalist at a Manchester restaurant and feed them stories in favour of support in the press. He'd leak who we were looking at with the intention of building hope or good will with fans.