Schools really need to start teaching kids some basic statistical concepts like anomalies, outliers, sample size, confidence intervals, and extrapolation.
Example:
- We’ve hired Mourinho, and look how that worked out: Sample size = 1. Confidence in extrapolating to new a Mourinho-like candidate for the job in different circumstances and at a different time = close to 0
- People wanted SAF sacked, we were patient, and look how that worked out. Sample size = 1. Confidence in extrapolating to new a manager who shares very little with SAF, in different circumstances and at a different time = close to 0
I can go on, but you all are smart and get the point. Stop saying this stuff because it’s the equivalent of saying, “You say smoking is bad yeah? How come my grandpa smoked like a chimney since he turned 8 years old and lived till he was 99 and was healthy?”