Since I'm obviously biased I'll try and be as objective as I can.
In 2014-15 I was really surprised that they won a Championship. Coming off the Jackson 50 win season I expected to make the playoffs and maybe win a round but winning 67 games and a Championship was totally unexpected as far as I was concerned. Draymond and Klay had just turned 25 with Draymond having his first year as a starter. Steph was just starting his superstar run. I was shocked.
In 2015-16 they blew it. They chased 73 games when Kerr told them not too and by the finals even though they were not exactly running on fumes they were pretty gassed. Even with all that, without Curry's injuries and Draymond's suspension like
@Eboue I feel they would have won it and it was a surprise (to me) when they didn't.
The Cavs winning was a major upset. If they play 10 times, Cleveland wins 2 or 3. If the Warriors brought back the same team and didnt get Durant they would still have rightly been favorites.
In 2016-17 after adding Durant I expected them to win. What people seem to forget though is that they had an awful lot of cap space at that point to bolster their 73 win team in other ways if Durant doesn't come. Obviously landing KD was the equivalent of winning the jackpot and the rest is history. With the extra cap money though, I think it is very possible they could have won a Championship without Durant. We'll never know!
In 2017-18 I felt they coasted through much of the second half of the season. Injuries didn't help but they seemed to be on auto pilot for much of the time. I think the Rockets made them work harder than they expected to have to, but once again I wasn't shocked that they won another title.
This latest year (for me) has been the oddest of the lot. IMLTHO this is the worst team since 2015 since it is so top heavy and their main back ups (Iguodala, Livingston are getting older, and David West, Zaza and JaVale McGee are gone). Even though they are 2-0 against the Rockets, if Houston can win game three I think the series is far from over. If the Dubs can split in Houston I think the Rockets are done since nobody loses a 3-1 lead
. As for the Conference Finals and Championship (if they make it), I don't think either Portland or Denver can knock them off in the West but I think any of the top 4 from the East could make it interesting.