From today's Times.
Manchester United are facing up to the prospect of no Champions League football next season for the first time in 18 years. Trailing Arsenal, in fourth, by seven points with five matches remaining, United’s elimination in the Champions League quarter-finals by Bayern Munich on Wednesday effectively ended any hopes they have of competing in the competition next term.
Here The Times takes a look at the challenges, concerns and questions facing David Moyes, the United manager, the Glazer family, the club’s owners, and the squad as they plot their next moves.
The manager’s future
The Glazers are ruthless businessmen who are driven by the bottom line and not by sentiment. It seems unthinkable that the Americans will not be deliberating whether it will be wise to entrust a transfer kitty of up to £200 million this summer to a manager who could be on his way out come Christmas if United endure a poor start to next season.
As things stand, Moyes seems more likely to be in charge at Old Trafford next term than not, but a return to Goodison Park on Sunday week to face an in-form Everton, his former club, has the potential to invite more awkward questions about the manager’s suitability for the job.
Moyes’s mindset and methods
Should Moyes survive, he will have to make an adjustment to his approach if mistakes are not to be repeated. It might seem trivial, but he must start talking like a United manager. Installing Liverpool as “favourites” before their game at Old Trafford last month and claiming that Manchester City are “at the sort of level we are aspiring to” has done little to undermine the view — advanced by the supporters’ forum of the Red Issue fanzine — that Moyes “seems to be completely disassociated and visibly uncomfortable with the fact that he is manager of United”.
Ryan Giggs and Moyes held court before the first leg against Bayern, with the veteran midfielder affronted by the idea that the European champions should be considered such favourites to win. By contrast, Moyes’s diction routinely fails to project an image of strength. His sentences are laced with words such as “hopefully” — you can almost hear the groans from United supporters as they are uttered.
That natural caution and reticence are mirrored on the field. If United are 1-0 in front, Moyes’s default setting seems to be to cling to what they have and it has not been uncommon to see the team retreating deeper and deeper to try to protect a slender lead. It has invariably worked, but it invites trouble and is a concept alien to players conditioned by Sir Alex Ferguson, the former United manager, always to go for the jugular.
Once a hallmark of their resilience, United have also looked uncomfortable chasing matches. Of the 16 Barclays Premier League games in which they have trailed this term, they have recovered to win only four of them.
Moyes must also make his mark in the big matches. United have beaten only three teams of note this term — Liverpool in the Capital One Cup, Arsenal in the league and, at a push, Olympiacos in the Champions League. Ten points from 42 against the league’s present top nine is a damning statistic. Given that many had expected Bayern to demolish United over two legs, there was a degree of respectability to be had in a 4-2 aggregate defeat, but at the same time it will have been disconcerting that the German champions appeared to play well within themselves and were still able to progress.
The squad management must also improve — players have often found themselves overworked to the point of fatigue or underused, only to be suddenly thrown in from the cold.
The transfer market
Moyes’s indecision in the transfer market cost United dear last summer — a repeat is inconceivable this time around, not least in a World Cup year. Moyes likes Toni Kroos, the Bayern midfielder, but he cannot afford to be led up the garden path, as he was in the case of Cesc Fàbregas, the Barcelona midfielder, by a player simply angling to strengthen his position at his club.
Manchester has never been an easy sell for star players. Without Champions League football to offer and a manager on rocky ground, it will become even harder, unless United are willing to pay significantly over the odds in wages. Aware of United’s desperation for new players, clubs will inflate their asking prices accordingly — something that their neighbours across the city know only too well.
Moreover, will Moyes spend well? The £27 million lavished on Marouane Fellaini, the former Everton player, already looks an extremely costly error of judgment, while the £37.1 million purchase of Juan Mata, the midfielder, seems hard to rationalise when there are areas of the team in much greater need of attention.
Financial impact
The absence of Champions League football next season will cost United just over £20 million in lost revenue, which should be partially offset by an increasingly lucrative summer tour, potential mid-season exhibition matches overseas and new commercial deals. A single season outside Europe’s elite club competition would be comfortable for the club to swallow financially, but an extended spell without it could have wider- reaching repercussions.
The squad
United could lose Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra, the defenders, in addition to Giggs and Nemanja Vidic, their captain, who has already announced that he is leaving at the end of the season. Between them, they have 29 Premier League winners’ medals. To lose that amount of experience in one go would take some replacing. It would also leave Moyes needing to sign three or four defenders on top of addressing the issues in midfield and in attack.
That would be troubling enough were his younger defenders — Chris Smalling, Phil Jones, Jonny Evans and Rafael Da Silva — not all so injury-prone. Signing up to six players and offloading as many as ten in a single summer is probably unrealistic.
As such, there are players, whose relations with Moyes have become strained, that may well need to be brought back onside and from whom the manager will have to find an efficient way of extracting a much higher level of performance.
The coaching staff
There are a number of senior figures at United who would like Moyes to address the make-up of his backroom staff, with concerns over Steve Round, the assistant manager, Phil Neville, the first-team coach, and Jimmy Lumsden, a fellow United coach. A more respected, innovative coach who challenges the status quo could freshen up the place.
The Rooney and Van Persie conundrum
Robin van Persie’s commitment to United — and Moyes’s desire to keep the striker — may be put to the test if an attractive offer comes in. Wayne Rooney, left, having just signed a 5½-year contract, is not going anywhere, but it will concern Moyes that the striker scored only twice in the Champions League and has three goals against teams in the present top nine in the league. A toe injury could not explain the two excellent chances he squandered against Bayern on Wednesday.