Manchester United have not spent enough money to compete at the highest level. In 2008, Sheikh Mansour acquired Manchester City and since then, Manchester United has faced a chronic lack of investment – the polar opposite of Manchester City. The effects of this negligence experienced lag, until 2013 when Ferguson retired.
So how is it that Ferguson was still able to compete?
- Ferguson was a football genius.
- Having Ferguson at the helm for almost 27 years means we were able to develop efficiencies. A typical example of this is the 'winning mentality' – it became ingrained in the culture of the club and mean't we could send out a midfield of Rafael, Gibson, O'shea and Fabio go on to beat Arsenal 2-0.
We were riding off of the back of Ferguson for a LONG time. I'm sure I've said nothing new so far, but let's take a look at the numbers.
Net Expenditure by Manchester United and Manchester City 2008 - 2017
Between 2008 and 2017: * Manchester United: -£584m * Manchester City: -£1,056m. In 10 years, Manchester City's net expenditure is almost twice as much as ours. You might say - "but, around 75% of Manchester United's expenditure has happened in the last 4 years. We DO compete now."
You are correct, but to counter that – Falcao, Di Maria, Schneiderlin, Depay, Schweinsteiger and Mkhitaryan have all since left the club.
We spent around £190m on acquiring those players and in all cases, they have left within two seasons to either play in a worse league, a worse team, or both. Could anything be a better illustration that these were bad signings?
Secondly, Manchester City have pumped considerably more money, more consistently, and over a longer period of time to acquire talent. Investments take time to reach maturity and their players have had the time to grow and develop with the club.
Is four years of investment really enough to catch up with 6 years of negligence?
Let's look at how this has translated in the world of football:
UEFA Club Coefficient Rankings of Manchester United and Manchester City 2008 - 2017
The club coefficient rankings are determined by the results of clubs in the UEFA Champions League and the UEFA Europa League over the previous five seasons, as well as by the coefficient of the clubs' association.
The graph shows that since 2010, we have faced a continuous drop in our position, whilst Manchester City have continuously risen. The amount we spend, directly translates into results.
When Ed Woodward took charge, he made numerous comments about the state the club was in, and also his desire to see a greater number of Manchester United player in the Ballon D'or list. Now yes, you may argue it's influenced by popularity, but it illustrates the influence of our spending quite well:
Players in the Ballon d'Or Shortlist from Manchester United and Manchester City 2008 - 2017
I've excluded players that joined us in the 3 months before the awards – Di Maria, for example, was shortlisted after his performances for Real Madrid before joining us.
You can see a complete dip in the number of world class players in the squad, in stark contrast to Manchester City's regular appearance in the shortlist.
One question I had after this, was how do the likes of Atletico Madrid and Juventus compete in Europe even though they have spent less than us?
My theory is that whilst not the only factor, a significant factor is the explosion in the value of the Premier League. The value of the latest Premier League TV rights is £3.5bn, to put that in perspective, La Liga's latest TV deal is estimated at £1.7bn. That's over double – and this translates into the amount we have to spend, in comparison to the amount a team like Atletico Madrid would spend for an equal value player.
Combine that with some absolutely awful business, and you have a delayed onset of results on the field.
BUT, there are positive's here.
- We are now investing more in the club, not quite as much as Manchester City, but it's a start.
- If you look at the UEFA Coefficient, recent trophies have enabled us to improve our position. There is a noticeable improvement in results and the trend is going in the right direction.
- As much as this sub would have you think he is the devil of progressive football, Jose Mourinho has got us scoring more goals. In fact, take a look at the graph below, we are ever so slowly beginning to head back towards Sir Alex Ferguson territory for goals scored.
Goals Scored Per Season by Manchester United and Manchester City 2008 - 2017
- Mourinho's also got our defence heading closer to Sir Alex Ferguson territory. I would argue that this is one of the worst defences on paper, that we've had in a decade – yet we are solid and there's SO much room to improve it.
Goals Conceded Per Season by Manchester United and Manchester City 2008 - 2017
Conclusion:
We are heading in the right direction under Mourinho. The data doesn't lie and I've deliberately picked broad points to try and avoid the 'cherry-picking' accusations. We have two ageing wingers, playing as makeshift full backs and a non-existent right wing. We have to invest there, without fail. Give it another summer, just one more season and let's return to the numbers. If the investments continues, the results under Mourinho absolutely will follow and we are beginning to see the start of that in the graphs above. Mourinho's a proven winner and we'd be mad to throw the club into a period of further instability as we transition into a new style of football. There are hidden efficiencies to keeping the same manager around and allowing him to implement his own identity, with his own players, over an extended period.