It has been suggested that Jeremy Corbyn has "lost a fifth of Labour voters". Has his first week really been that bad?
A poll by ORB for The Independent suggests that 20% of people who voted Labour in May would be more likely to vote Conservative with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader.
It also showed nearly three in four do not see Mr Corbyn as a Prime Minister in waiting – including those groups he is perceived as championing in the public sector and less affluent social grades.
It is important to note, however, that the ‘lost fifth’ claim is not based on a direct voting intention question, but on the claimed change in likelihood to vote for the Conservatives given Mr Corbyn’s leadership.
That could mean they have gone from certain Labour voters to certain Conservative voters.
But it could also mean that, while more likely than before, their chances of voting Conservative are still negligible.
The question is also likely to pick up committed Labour supporters who did not support Mr Corbyn in their leadership election, who want to express their disappointment.
Of course, there are still many unknowns here as well.
The next General Election will be in 2020 – if a week is a long time in politics, five years will provide many opportunities for Mr Corbyn to shape his public image.
But perhaps most importantly, if Mr Corbyn ‘lost’ a fifth of Labour voters, he has also ‘won’ 8% of Conservatives, 27% of Lib Dems, 20% of Ukippers and 36% of SNP supporters – in that they say they are more likely to vote Labour with Mr Corbyn as leader.
And if you do the maths, that would imply almost a million more voters backing Labour – even taking into account Labour losing a fifth of its support since May.
The Conservatives, by that logic, would win many more votes – but the SNP, UKIP and the Lib Dems are not about to disintegrate and Britain is not about to return to a two-party system.
Rather, all this shows that people don’t really know a week into Mr Corbyn’s tenure what impact his leadership will have on their votes in five years’ time.