Jarrad Branthwaite

We also signed Maguire for 80 million, is he a generational talent?
Fee does not equal ability, which has been massively unfortunate for United over the past 10 years.

I'm simply commenting on the fact that the fee you were prepared to bid would have placed him at the upper end of that list, which would imply that your club believes he is, or at least a top one.
 
Your second bid was 53.5m Euros rising to 60m Euros which would him in the upper echelon of that list?

I suppose that puts him around Ben White which is probably comparable and a reasonable ceiling. Most would say that White was sold for above market value at the time and there’s definitely a “tax” you expect for buying English and buying a player from another PL club that they want to keep hold of.

Of course ultimately the true price is dependent on what you’re prepared to sell him for but I see that being around the maximum we should go to without feeling like we’ve significantly overpaid.
 
I'm simply commenting on the fact that the fee you were prepared to bid would have placed him at the upper end of that list, which would imply that your club believes he is, or at least a top one.

Oh yeah that’s fair enough. I’d also like to think the new regime have a better eye on which players are worth the big bucks compared to Woodward and co but time will tell!
 
Just to help inform the discussion on the “market value” of Branthwaite, below I've compiled a list of centre-back transfers and reported fees from the last 3 years. This is mostly a list of signings to England's top clubs and Europe's elite but also included the likes of Guehi and Tomori as comparable young English talents. Transfer fees all taken from transfermarkt.com for consistency (the ones marked * are rumoured fees for this summer, including Everton's reported valuation of Branthwaite)

Fee Euros(m)Year
Gvardiol
90​
2023​
Branthwaite*
85​
2024​
Fofana
80​
2022​
De Ligt
67​
2022​
Yoro
62​
2024​
White
59​
2021​
Martinez
57​
2022​
Romero
52​
2022​
Min-Jae
50​
2023​
Calafiori*
50​
2024​
De Ligt*
50​
2024​
Bremer
47​
2022​
Disasi
45​
2023​
Upamecano
43​
2021​
Timber
40​
2023​
Van De Ven
40​
2023​
Varane
40​
2021​
Konate
40​
2021​
Badiashile
38​
2023​
Botman
37​
2022​
Tomori
34​
2021​
Pau Torres
33​
2023​
Todibo*
32​
2024​
Dragusin
25​
2023​
Guehi
23​
2021​
Akanji
20​
2022​


Everton reportedly see the Gvardiol and Fofana fees as a suitable benchmark (which conveniently are the two most expensive) but you can see there's plenty of good signings that have been picked up for below the 50m mark, all the way down to Akanji who was a steal at 20m.

Branthwaite's valuation by Everton looks extremely out of place on this list (as does Fofana). On current ability he would be somewhere towards the bottom of this list so to justify the fee you would have to believe he is a generational talent and yet there does not seem to be a wider perception that he is. By comparison to others that would have been considered "generational" on this list and what they had done to earn that tag:
  • Gvardiol had reported interest from multiple of Europe's elite after impressive performances for RB Leipzig from the age of 18, catching the eye due to his left-footedness and ability on the ball. He won two German cups at Leipzig and also played in the Croatia first team in the 2022 World Cup in their run to the semi-final.
  • De Ligt was 22 when he moved to Bayern. He had broken into the Ajax team at 17 and become their youngest ever captain. He won the golden boy award in 2018. He captained Ajax to the Eredivisie title and on their run to the Champions League semi-finals during which he scored a winning goal against Juventus in the quarter finals and became the competitions youngest ever captain. He moved to Juventus at the age of 19 and made over 100 appearances across 3 seasons winning a Serie A and a Coppa Italia. He began his senior international career at the age of 17, becoming the youngest player to start for the Netherlands since 1931 and became a first team regular on their run to the Nations League final, scoring a goal against England in the semi.
  • Branthwaite at the same age has two seasons of regular senior football under his belt. The first on loan at PSV where he made 36 appearances and won the KNVB cup (Dutch Cup), although he did score an own goal in the final. His second, back at Everton, making 35 PL appearances and winning Everton's young player and player's player of the season awards. He was selected for England U21s for the 2023 U21 European Championship but was largely an unused substitute throughout the tournament which England won (he started the final group game which was a dead rubber). He has 1 sub appearance for the senior team and was not selected for Euro 2024 despite the injury to Maguire and the lack of proven alternatives. Lewis Dunk who has 6 caps at the age of 32 was favoured to Branthwaite.
It's obvious his career to this point does not scream generational talent and therefore does not justify a fee that would put him anywhere near the top of this list. He does have a unique set of attributes with his rare combination of height, speed, left-footedness (or even two-footedness) and that makes him a very interesting prospect. He could even be "generational" from an England perspective and be an England starter for much of the next decade, although Southgate seemed to think otherwise. However, it's difficult to say he's anything but raw potential at the moment so we should really continue to negotiate for a fee that reflects that.
Very good post.
 
Your second bid was 53.5m Euros rising to 60m Euros which would him in the upper echelon of that list?
Fair point.

But I think that is about the valuation most fans would be happy with and see as a true reflection of his ability - with the English / PL aspect included in that figure.

The frustration is not that it was rejected, but that its deemed an insult and nowhere near his 'true' valuation. Whereas that actually is around his true valuation, looking at other CB prices, and it's the Everton figure that is OTT going off market prices - not our bid that's an insult.
 
I wonder is the money from that second offer still available. Probably need sales in defence to fund it again. I wouldn't go up but i might just state its still on the table. Think after buying Yoro this just makes a lot less sense and we should go elsewhere.
Sucks for Everton, they cant catch a break.
 
Branthwaite as the 2nd CB makes more sense than De Ligt.

Yoro is a right footed CB, so the 2nd CB being left footed to cover Martinez, be the long term replacement for Martinez and enabling us to play one at LB in emergency scenarios works. Also rotating Branthwaite and Yoro for minutes works for their development and their current standing, while De Ligt would expect to start most matches.

I'd guess they would accept a similar fee to Yoro.

Could also allow us to utilise Martinez at left back in the case of an emergency or failure to secure another LB (if Malacia is going to be sold)
 
Couldn't we offer them Maguire as part of the deal? Might be a good deal for him, too - he wouldn't need to uproot his family and would still be playing in the Premier League.

They have financial troubles no way they can afford Harry's wage.
 
Could also allow us to utilise Martinez at left back in the case of an emergency or failure to secure another LB (if Malacia is going to be sold)
Martinez himself is susceptible to a long-term absence, so in any situation having Branthwaite or another comfortable left-sided player makes a lot of sense.
 
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:lol: :lol: :lol:
 
I think this is one that gets done on transfer deadline day. Some more sales needed if we’re seriously pursuing him.
 
I feel sorry for them. 30m, Mejbri and Lindelof should do the trick. It will add some cash in their coffers while providing them with ready made replacement for Onana and the Carlisle Kaiser
 
I feel sorry for them. 30m, Mejbri and Lindelof should do the trick. It will add some cash in their coffers while providing them with ready made replacement for Onana and the Carlisle Kaiser
Too kind of an offer, they need the money desperately, we should stick to our current bid or reduce it.
 
Ideally but you don't think that in a context where we could do with better starters in midfield and wings, adding a big money rotational starter is strange?
I'm of the opinion that you aren't going to solve every issue in one window, so if I can solidify an area of the squad to make it a full on strength with quality right now I'd rather do so than try to buy for every "need" and end up just scattering the budget on players that are just decent but not really ideal targets. Martinez/Yoro/Branthwaite is an elite trio for the future and completely reshapes our defense.
 
Ideally but you don't think that in a context where we could do with better starters in midfield and wings, adding a big money rotational starter is strange?
It kind of seems like a one in one out at the moment. Varane and Martial are gone, Zirkzee and Yoro have replaced them.
I think we'll spend money without sales but they wont be big fees. It'll be amrabat for 25m and a cheap left footed defender. Lindelof, Wan Bisakka, Maguire, McTominay, Casemiro will have to go to spend big fee's
 
He's a level below Yoro but still an excellent prospect. Athleticism, comfortable playing either side, good base level technicality, top tier duel winner. I promise Everton fans aren't just lying to you about his quality. People need to get over themselves.

Potential wise sure, currently its not the case. Also Jarrad is LCB while Yoro is RCB. Jarrad is the typical EPL CB but with pace. He's got a 6ft5 frame and he's excellent in air. Yoro is a far better passer but he's not as imposing in air.
 
Offer them £30 million and Maguire or
Lindelof take it or leave it. If no move on and go for another target. Still think we need another Centre back this window.
 
He would provide better balance than De Ligt,however saw it suggested on the other thread that De Ligt is also ambidextrous too
 
Ideally but you don't think that in a context where we could do with better starters in midfield and wings, adding a big money rotational starter is strange?
Who knows, there may be a few more sales that could surprise us where we can use the funds to reinvest the midfield and wings.
 
Yes. Maybe they will be obstanant and refuse to sell at less than £70mil so we can go for de ligt instead.

Yeah could go either way but I think more likely outcome is they need to raise cash (so no longer need an impossible to turndown offer) and they'll come to the negotiation table with a more realistic valuation
 
Yeah could go either way but I think more likely outcome is they need to raise cash (so no longer need an impossible to turndown offer) and they'll come to the negotiation table with a more realistic valuation
Maybe it's me. I have seen Everton play on TV. I've watched @raaes analysis on his Pythagoras in Boots YouTube channel. I just do not see the hype around the lad. Other than he can play on left or right side as the CB. Which a trait of modern day football.

Yoro on the other hand, I can see abit of VVD and Ferdinand in him so I can see why people are excited.

Then again Branthwaite might go onto have a career like John Terry or Phil Jones (covering both bases there).
 
Who knows, there may be a few more sales that could surprise us where we can use the funds to reinvest the midfield and wings.

Hoping that happens, no doubt getting money for players (outside of Mason) is biggest challenge
 
Offer them £30 million and Maguire or
Lindelof take it or leave it. If no move on and go for another target. Still think we need another Centre back this window.

They did ask for Maguire's (money) so Maguire and 30m sounds fair
 
Maybe it's me. I have seen Everton play on TV. I've watched @raaes analysis on his Pythagoras in Boots YouTube channel. I just do not see the hype around the lad. Other than he can play on left or right side as the CB. Which a trait of modern day football.

Yoro on the other hand, I can see abit of VVD and Ferdinand in him so I can see why people are excited.

Then again Branthwaite might go onto have a career like John Terry or Phil Jones (covering both bases there).

Yeah I agree. I'm a bit meh about him and would rather have De Ligt but willing to give the new structure the benefit of the doubt. Could be their first error.
 
Maybe it's me. I have seen Everton play on TV. I've watched @raaes analysis on his Pythagoras in Boots YouTube channel. I just do not see the hype around the lad. Other than he can play on left or right side as the CB. Which a trait of modern day football.

Yoro on the other hand, I can see abit of VVD and Ferdinand in him so I can see why people are excited.

Then again Branthwaite might go onto have a career like John Terry or Phil Jones (covering both bases there).

Branthwaite is most importantly a rare physical profile for me. Big, tall, strong, but still has very good pace and mobility. I think just this rare combination, similar to Hojlund, makes him a very good prospect for the future, but he's also someone who's already good enough to massively contribute from day 1.

His box defending also improved a lot last season at Everton IMO, as defending deep for large portions of every game was a big change up from what he was used to, in a more dominant team at PSV in the Eredivisie. Box defending was one of Varane's biggest strengths when he played for United, but in my opinion he was not good enough to play in a high line. With Branthwaite, he's perfectly suited for that whilst also being on the course to becoming an excellent box defender. He would be a long-term project, just like Yoro, but the Englishman is a further ahead in his development and in my opinion he's ready to play most of a whole campaign at Manchester United at 22, unlike Leny, who will need to be slowly phased in for the first 1-2 seasons, due to having much less experience (50+ Ligue games at 18 is still very impressive, mind you) and being 3 years younger.
 
Potential wise sure, currently its not the case. Also Jarrad is LCB while Yoro is RCB. Jarrad is the typical EPL CB but with pace. He's got a 6ft5 frame and he's excellent in air. Yoro is a far better passer but he's not as imposing in air.

I'm not sure you understood my post. I'm agreeing that Jarrad is an excellent prospect, just a level below (as a prospect) compared to Yoro. Still very good. Hence why I'd happily have him as well.
 
Branthwaite is most importantly a rare physical profile for me. Big, tall, strong, but still has very good pace and mobility. I think just this rare combination, similar to Hojlund, makes him a very good prospect for the future, but he's also someone who's already good enough to massively contribute from day 1.

His box defending also improved a lot last season at Everton IMO, as defending deep for large portions of every game was a big change up from what he was used to, in a more dominant team at PSV in the Eredivisie. Box defending was one of Varane's biggest strengths when he played for United, but in my opinion he was not good enough to play in a high line. With Branthwaite, he's perfectly suited for that whilst also being on the course to becoming an excellent box defender. He would be a long-term project, just like Yoro, but the Englishman is a further ahead in his development and in my opinion he's ready to play most of a whole campaign at Manchester United at 22, unlike Leny, who will need to be slowly phased in for the first 1-2 seasons.

Not sureif "not good enough" is how I'd describe Varane in a high line, he just wasn't physically able to as well as he could. Was less about skill and more about his body.
 
Not sureif "not good enough" is how I'd describe Varane in a high line, he just wasn't physically able to as well as he could. Was less about skill and more about his body.

Out of all our defender pairings in the last 3 years, I'm pretty sure when Varane was one of the two centre halves, we always played a very low defensive line, one of the lowest in the league. I also think he wasn't good enough on the ball and in the build-up. Our right hand side suffered a lot when Varane played RCB with AWB next to him at right-back. The physical qualities used to be there for Varane, but he also wasn't 25 anymore. Having Dalot and potentially Yoro and Branthwaite there instead will be night and day compared to Varane + AWB.