Just to help inform the discussion on the “market value” of Branthwaite, below I've compiled a list of centre-back transfers and reported fees from the last 3 years. This is mostly a list of signings to England's top clubs and Europe's elite but also included the likes of Guehi and Tomori as comparable young English talents. Transfer fees all taken from transfermarkt.com for consistency (the ones marked * are rumoured fees for this summer, including Everton's reported valuation of Branthwaite)
| Fee Euros(m) | Year |
| Gvardiol | 90 | 2023 |
| Branthwaite* | 85 | 2024 |
| Fofana | 80 | 2022 |
| De Ligt | 67 | 2022 |
| Yoro | 62 | 2024 |
| White | 59 | 2021 |
| Martinez | 57 | 2022 |
| Romero | 52 | 2022 |
| Min-Jae | 50 | 2023 |
| Calafiori* | 50 | 2024 |
| De Ligt* | 50 | 2024 |
| Bremer | 47 | 2022 |
| Disasi | 45 | 2023 |
| Upamecano | 43 | 2021 |
| Timber | 40 | 2023 |
| Van De Ven | 40 | 2023 |
| Varane | 40 | 2021 |
| Konate | 40 | 2021 |
| Badiashile | 38 | 2023 |
| Botman | 37 | 2022 |
| Tomori | 34 | 2021 |
| Pau Torres | 33 | 2023 |
| Todibo* | 32 | 2024 |
| Dragusin | 25 | 2023 |
| Guehi | 23 | 2021 |
| Akanji | 20 | 2022 |
Everton reportedly see the Gvardiol and Fofana fees as a suitable benchmark (which conveniently are the two most expensive) but you can see there's plenty of good signings that have been picked up for below the 50m mark, all the way down to Akanji who was a steal at 20m.
Branthwaite's valuation by Everton looks extremely out of place on this list (as does Fofana). On current ability he would be somewhere towards the bottom of this list so to justify the fee you would have to believe he is a generational talent and yet there does not seem to be a wider perception that he is. By comparison to others that would have been considered "generational" on this list and what they had done to earn that tag:
- Gvardiol had reported interest from multiple of Europe's elite after impressive performances for RB Leipzig from the age of 18, catching the eye due to his left-footedness and ability on the ball. He won two German cups at Leipzig and also played in the Croatia first team in the 2022 World Cup in their run to the semi-final.
- De Ligt was 22 when he moved to Bayern. He had broken into the Ajax team at 17 and become their youngest ever captain. He won the golden boy award in 2018. He captained Ajax to the Eredivisie title and on their run to the Champions League semi-finals during which he scored a winning goal against Juventus in the quarter finals and became the competitions youngest ever captain. He moved to Juventus at the age of 19 and made over 100 appearances across 3 seasons winning a Serie A and a Coppa Italia. He began his senior international career at the age of 17, becoming the youngest player to start for the Netherlands since 1931 and became a first team regular on their run to the Nations League final, scoring a goal against England in the semi.
- Branthwaite at the same age has two seasons of regular senior football under his belt. The first on loan at PSV where he made 36 appearances and won the KNVB cup (Dutch Cup), although he did score an own goal in the final. His second, back at Everton, making 35 PL appearances and winning Everton's young player and player's player of the season awards. He was selected for England U21s for the 2023 U21 European Championship but was largely an unused substitute throughout the tournament which England won (he started the final group game which was a dead rubber). He has 1 sub appearance for the senior team and was not selected for Euro 2024 despite the injury to Maguire and the lack of proven alternatives. Lewis Dunk who has 6 caps at the age of 32 was favoured to Branthwaite.
It's obvious his career to this point does not scream generational talent and therefore does not justify a fee that would put him anywhere near the top of this list. He does have a unique set of attributes with his rare combination of height, speed, left-footedness (or even two-footedness) and that makes him a very interesting prospect. He could even be "generational" from an England perspective and be an England starter for much of the next decade, although Southgate seemed to think otherwise. However, it's difficult to say he's anything but raw potential at the moment so we should really continue to negotiate for a fee that reflects that.
