Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less

Lets assume this seemingly impossible task is completed and 1 million people move away from that zone, then what? Hamas will just evacuate along with the civilians. After Israel destroys the tunnels in that area, they will just move towards the area where they have asked the civilians to move right now.

This will only end up with entire Gaza population becoming refugees in Egypt and the Gaza strip annexed by Israel. Else the next ground invasion would mean civilians caught in between israel and hamas.

Ground invasion wont be easy. I would imagine that they would want to flatten that area before ground invasion starts.
 
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I’m pretty speechless. Just can’t believe that Israel think it’s OK to ask what they have asked. And how the rest of the world, in particular western countries, are unlikely to even criticise it.
 
Telling 1.1 million people to evacuate within 24 hours is pure madness. Even at the best of times it would take weeks. Are they really intending to destroy an entire city before they enter with ground forces? I get not wanting to risk unecessary casualties ( soliders mostly), but this is beyond the pale.
 
Sir Erik ten Hag said:
Would this lead to a World War? On the East things are in tension regarding China and Taiwan. Russia and Ukraine are also at war. And that’s not mentioning the whole mess in the Middle East.
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I would doubt it, china invading taiwan in next few years would have global ramifications and make Ukraine/Russia look a tinderbox conflict. That could really set things off.

"...Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Most are manufactured by a single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). Until now, the most advanced have been made only in Taiwan.."

Its one of the reasons why USA has given TSMC generous tax breaks to build a plant in USA. Also encouraged Intel and others to build more semiconductor factories in USA.

Apparently TSMC have rigged their semiconductor factories with explosives so if China did ever invade and were successful, TSMC could oblitarate their own semiconductor factories to stop china making use of them.
 
dinostar77 said:
I would doubt it, china invading taiwan in next few years would have global ramifications and make Ukraine/Russia look a tinderbox conflict. That could really set things off.

"...Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. Most are manufactured by a single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). Until now, the most advanced have been made only in Taiwan.."

Its one of the reasons why USA has given TSMC generous tax breaks to build a plant in USA. Also encouraged Intel and others to build more semiconductor factories in USA.

Apparently TSMC have rigged their semiconductor factories with explosives so if China did ever invade and were successful, TSMC could oblitarate their own semiconductor factories to stop china making use of them.
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Yeah Right!
 
This is what happens when spineless western leaders give israel their unquestioning support. Lets their fascists thugs go all out in their madness. And then you have the shills over here screaming antisemitism if anyone dares question it.
 
do.ob said:
Yes? Why the sarcasm? It takes (at least) two sides to make peace. I'm sure you understand that? It wasn't just about the Germany. The victorious countries decided not to entertain desires for revenge, but a mindset of quick integration on eye level instead of occupation and so the cycle was broken and the precursor of the EU was founded just 6 years after the war.
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The Allies realised that a politically and economically weak West Germany would hold Europe back and could push them directly in the arms of the Soviet Union. A strong Germany was integral to the stabilization of Europe, reducing the risk of a new conflagration and again to discourage any velleity of expansion of the Soviet Union. Hence the Marshall Plan and not the Morgenthau one or a milder version of the latter.

The fate of the country was decided by the two superpowers of the time, each according to their own ideology and own interests. The massive financial help given to West Germany and its quick integration to the ECSC, and the NATO a few year later, were based on geopolitical, geostrategical and economical reasons. Not the power of friendship. Western Europe simply could not do without Germany.

The current situation in the Middle-East is no way comparable. There's no balance of power there, no (impartial) middleman. One side has everyone and everything behind them, even time, the other has absolutely nothing. More importantly, the region can do without Palestine. Not even the arab countries there have now interest in having them around as a country. Maybe if one day, someone like say China decides on a whim that enough is enough, and sides with the Palestinians for whatever reason, then we might see some change. Until then it's business as usual.
 
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24 hours to relocate to the south, and next week they'll be told to go north so they can flatten the rest of it.
 
Badunk said:
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But in many ways that is not far from the truth. They apparently did have some intelligence on the situation but misinterpreted it.

And they obviously have a lot of past and current Intel in the Gaza, human, satellite, etc.
 
It's so sickening. All I come back to is the original question posed last week: what did the Hamas leaders that okayed the attacks want to happen in Gaza?

All of thr posters on both sides knew from the moment the magnitude and savagery of the attack that Israel would over compensate, and the innocents would suffer. I promise you Hamas knew that too.

And yet 90% of this discussion is now against Israel. And if we're honest with ourselves, that very fact stems from the intuition that Israel shouldn't do these atrocities, but Hamas just will. That asymmetry is important.

Gazans would be better off today if not for the actions of Hamas. The agency lies at the feet of the them. Yes, Israel should choose to not react this way, but the why has everyone stopped caring about the actual cause of this escalation? This is not quotidian affairs, this is new, it is worse.
 
Seen a lot of people saying that Israel wants to annex Gaza again. I'm really not sure that's true. They didn't want it to start with and left willingly 20 years ago. Way too much trouble and resource to fully occupy it, and not a lot of benefit. This isn't about expansionism but neutralising threat.

Of course, even without the serious moral concerns, bombing it like this is not going to neutralise the threat, it'll increase it longterm, from all sides.
 
Drizzle said:
But in many ways that is not far from the truth. They apparently did have some intelligence on the situation but misinterpreted it.

And they obviously have a lot of past and current Intel in the Gaza, human, satellite, etc.
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Yep.

They have had to be constantly revising plausible war plans against Hamas with regular frequency.
 
Beachryan said:
It's so sickening. All I come back to is the original question posed last week: what did the Hamas leaders that okayed the attacks want to happen in Gaza?

All of thr posters on both sides knew from the moment the magnitude and savagery of the attack that Israel would over compensate, and the innocents would suffer. I promise you Hamas knew that too.

And yet 90% of this discussion is now against Israel. And if we're honest with ourselves, that very fact stems from the intuition that Israel shouldn't do these atrocities, but Hamas just will. That asymmetry is important.

Gazans would be better off today if not for the actions of Hamas. The agency lies at the feet of the them. Yes, Israel should choose to not react this way, but the why has everyone stopped caring about the actual cause of this escalation? This is not quotidian affairs, this is new, it is worse.
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This is outrageous, to blame the Palestinians for being victims of war crimes.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I remember both of those (well, i don't *remember* Indian independence), and neither came about through just peaceful protest, despite how the stories have been retrospectively written re Gandhi and Mandela. Both suffered severe violence. These are definitely not good examples.
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You misunderstand my point. Final and ultimate victory arrived quickly once violence was renounced. Before that the violent struggle had lasted 6 plus years in both cases with no tangible benfit to the oppresed beyond minute satisfaction of revenge. Most people forget opressors use violence to oppress so violent struggle always plays the game by their rules and into their hands. 9/10 times they always win as a result. Even if you do suceed in expelling them like the Hatiian did or the Zimbabweans, they will use it as a pretext to get the world to hell them oppress you worse. With you ending up not far removed from the lives those who reside in Gaza right now. Living in false independence.
 
Beachryan said:
It's so sickening. All I come back to is the original question posed last week: what did the Hamas leaders that okayed the attacks want to happen in Gaza?

All of thr posters on both sides knew from the moment the magnitude and savagery of the attack that Israel would over compensate, and the innocents would suffer. I promise you Hamas knew that too.

And yet 90% of this discussion is now against Israel. And if we're honest with ourselves, that very fact stems from the intuition that Israel shouldn't do these atrocities, but Hamas just will. That asymmetry is important.

Gazans would be better off today if not for the actions of Hamas. The agency lies at the feet of the them. Yes, Israel should choose to not react this way, but the why has everyone stopped caring about the actual cause of this escalation? This is not quotidian affairs, this is new, it is worse.
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Hamas obviously knew Israel would strike back, but I feel that they were expecting a proportional response, especially since they were going to be holding hostages.

I don't think they factored in the possibility that Israel would respond with the vengeance & revenge they appear to be building up to. If they did, they are bigger nihilists than I thought.
 
Drizzle said:
Seen a lot of people saying that Israel wants to annex Gaza again. I'm really not sure that's true. They didn't want it to start with and left willingly 20 years ago. Way too much trouble and resource to fully occupy it, and not a lot of benefit. This isn't about expansionism but neutralising threat.

Of course, even without the serious moral concerns, bombing it like this is not going to neutralise the threat, it'll increase it longterm, from all sides.
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One of the main reason they didnt want to annex Gaza was the exploding population there which meant that if the peope living in Gaza became Israeli citizens they would eventually outnumber Israelis in a democracy in a state meant to be jewish.
 
Company have told everyone to WFH today as they are scared about the fatwa.

Not sure the middling, grotty commuter town in the South East would notice if a bomb went off tbh.
 
Gehrman said:
One of the main reason they didnt want to annex Gaza was the exploding population there which meant that if the peope living in Gaza became Israeli citizens they would eventually outnumber Israelis in a democracy in a state meant to be jewish.
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"It's not like apartheid, I have an obscure journal to prove it"
 
Gehrman said:
One of the main reason they didnt want to annex Gaza was the exploding population there which meant that if the peope living in Gaza became Israeli citizens they would eventually outnumber Israelis in a democracy in a state meant to be jewish.
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It's strange that one can talk about Israel like this but if you say England is meant to be a democracy and English people are being outnumbered, well, that's not right.

You cannot limit numbers/birthrates of a certain group of people, that's not democracy.
 
Gehrman said:
Ndtv is not at all the danish bbc. That is DR which means Danmarks Radio. Just to nitpick. Never heard of ndtv. But apart from that as you say it is reported from several media stations

Edit.: NDTV is an indian channel
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Yes, as a Dane, I'm well aware that DR is the Danish equivalent of the BBC :) I never said NDTV is Danish at all. I didn't post the DR article, because it's in Danish, but for what it's worth they still report the 4,000 tons number.

What I originally took offense to, was being told by the resident Redcafe ordnance expert, that it was ridiculous and that you wouldn't even need to check articles to figure that out - when the number in fact came from an article on a neutral site citing the IDF themselves.

The number might be misunderstood, translated incorrectly, overstated by the IDF or all of the above, but it doesn't change the original sentiment of the post that it's crazy to drop 6,000 bombs on a small densely populated area mostly filled with civilians. I don't care if the weight adds up to 4,000 tons, or 2,000 or 1,000.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Yes, as a Dane, I'm well aware that DR is the Danish equivalent of the BBC :) I never said NDTV is Danish at all. I didn't post the DR article, because it's in Danish, but for what it's worth they still report the 4,000 tons number.

What I originally took offense to, was being told by the resident Redcafe ordnance expert, that it was ridiculous and that you wouldn't even need to check articles to figure that out - when the number in fact came from an article on a neutral site citing the IDF themselves.

The number might be misunderstood, translated incorrectly, overstated by the IDF or all of the above, but it doesn't change the original sentiment of the post that it's crazy to drop 6,000 bombs on a small densely populated area mostly filled with civilians. I don't care if the weight adds up to 4,000 tons, or 2,000 or 1,000.
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Sorry i misread that and made a gaffe.
 
So what are Gazans supposed to do? They've been subjugated and brutalised for longer than the majority of them have been alive. They try to protest peacefully and they're shot down in cold blood whilst the international media decries "both sides" or "Hama's were hiding amongst the protesters. They're systematically chased out of their homes and their lands by insane settlers and their IDF henchmen whilst the world looks on and does nothing.

The absolutely obscene violence that was carried out last Saturday was disgusting but I fail to see what people think their options are/were. These events have taken place because Gazans are desperate and have no hope. Only once the occupation ends can the cycle of violence end in my opinion.
 
Raven said:
So what are Gazans supposed to do? They've been subjugated and brutalised for longer than the majority of them have been alive. They try to protest peacefully and they're shot down in cold blood whilst the international media decries "both sides" or "Hama's were hiding amongst the protesters. They're systematically chased out of their homes and their lands by insane settlers and their IDF henchmen whilst the world looks on and does nothing.

The absolutely obscene violence that was carried out last Saturday was disgusting but I fail to see what people think their options are/were. These events have taken place because Gazans are desperate and have no hope. Only once the occupation ends can the cycle of violence end in my opinion.
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Courageously kumbaya to freedom, peacefully, even when getting shot at
 
Murder on Zidane's Floor said:
It's strange that one can talk about Israel like this but if you say England is meant to be a democracy and English people are being outnumbered, well, that's not right.

You cannot limit numbers/birthrates of a certain group of people, that's not democracy.
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Im not agreeing with it, just exploring the reasons for Israel to withdraw from Gaza in the first place. in the words of Ehud Olmert in 2003, the deputy leader of Sharon:

"There is no doubt in my mind that very soon the government of Israel is going to have to address the demographic issue with the utmost seriousness and resolve. This issue above all others will dictate the solution that we must adopt. In the absence of a negotiated agreement – and I do not believe in the realistic prospect of an agreement – we need to implement a unilateral alternative... More and more Palestinians are uninterested in a negotiated, two-state solution, because they want to change the essence of the conflict from an Algerian paradigm to a South African one. From a struggle against 'occupation,' in their parlance, to a struggle for one-man-one-vote. That is, of course, a much cleaner struggle, a much more popular struggle – and ultimately a much more powerful one. For us, it would mean the end of the Jewish state... the parameters of a unilateral solution are: To maximize the number of Jews; to minimize the number of Palestinians; not to withdraw to the 1967 border and not to divide Jerusalem... Twenty-three years ago, Moshe Dayan proposed unilateral autonomy. On the same wavelength, we may have to espouse unilateral separation... [it] would inevitably preclude a dialogue with the Palestinians for at least 25 years.[13]"
 
The world makes me sick, may the Palestinian’s have peace one day and break free from apartheid
 
owlo said:
For those that are interested in the IAF's bomb rates (and types), casualties etc, here are some figures.

Bear in mind I do try to reference stuff when possible, but it's sometimes impossible. I'm also aware redcafe is a low traffic area with far less trolls and enemies so I thank you for that. (also a good place to write internal thoughts without much reaction) There's a acquaintance of mine mike (not even a jew or Israeli) on twitter who's somehow survived being an Iranian designated terrorist without worry but has had to take preventative actions against trolls.

Israel say they have dropped 6000 munitions, of which you would assume the vast majority are PGM's (Precision Guided Missiles)
- We know they are mostly PGM's because the US military has flagged that Israel are requesting different kinds of weapons from Ukraine currently, air launched PGM's instead of Artillery etc.

When I refer to CCR I mean "Civilian Casualty Ratio" - This defines how many combatants are killed vs civilians. For example, 1:5 would mean 5 Hamas terrorists killed for the cost of 1 civilian life, whereas 5:1 would indicate a cost of 5 civilians for 1 Hamas fighter. It is direct casualties only, generally.

So Israel have generally (and they have been worse and better at times, but I'll use the 2014 Gaza war as a base) been between 1:2 and 2:1, depending on whose reporting is used etc.
For comparison: In the Iraq war, the CCR was above 4:1. In Afghanistan it was 0.4:1. Vietnam was between 1:2 and 2:1

For the current conflict (And I'm not including the terrorist attackers in these figures) the CCR is likely over 10:1, which means of the 1500 casualties, only 500 or so are likely to be Hamas.

For historical figures I've mostly used: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualty_ratio

Now, to Ordnance intensity.....

Israel have dropped 6000 bombs, likely around 70% PGMs in 4 days. This is a rate of 1500/day.

For comparison: In the 2003 invasion of Iraq, described as shock and awe... 29,200 bombs were dropped in approximately 40 days. Around 65% PGM's. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/2003/uscentaf_oif_report_30apr2003.pdf (look at page 11) - The vast majority being 90kg~ warheads on mk82s and gbu12 (the mk82 is the unguided version of the gbu12) , as well as some larger (300kg~ i think) gbu31s. 802 Tomahawks were used. (not relevant, but they are cool.)

This is a rate of 730 bombs a day. Israel is going at more than twice the intensity of the Iraq war.

We also mentioned CCR earlier, and that it was above 4:1 in Iraq. However this was mainly due to the ground invasion; in the shock and awe phase, CCR is estimated at closer to 3:1

Israel is therefore twice as intense, and 3 times as lethal as the initial stages of the Iraq war.
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On a much smaller surface.
 
Drizzle said:
But in many ways that is not far from the truth. They apparently did have some intelligence on the situation but misinterpreted it.

And they obviously have a lot of past and current Intel in the Gaza, human, satellite, etc.
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They have decent intel on tunnel networks and hiding places, but not complete intelligence - which is probably why they've decided to just bomb everthing.

Beachryan said:
It's so sickening. All I come back to is the original question posed last week: what did the Hamas leaders that okayed the attacks want to happen in Gaza?

All of thr posters on both sides knew from the moment the magnitude and savagery of the attack that Israel would over compensate, and the innocents would suffer. I promise you Hamas knew that too.

And yet 90% of this discussion is now against Israel. And if we're honest with ourselves, that very fact stems from the intuition that Israel shouldn't do these atrocities, but Hamas just will. That asymmetry is important.

Gazans would be better off today if not for the actions of Hamas. The agency lies at the feet of the them. Yes, Israel should choose to not react this way, but the why has everyone stopped caring about the actual cause of this escalation? This is not quotidian affairs, this is new, it is worse.
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Hamas most certainly wanted a reaction from Isreal that would force an end to the status quo, and they have pretty much gotten it. I imagine their hope was that certian other actors would get involved to change the situation, and they expected Abbas to take advantage of the situation. I'm personally very happy that the West Bank is so quiet, it gives me hope that negotations can follow after this travesty. This being a war between Isreal and Hamas, and not Isreal and Palestine is a good thing (not the war itself mind).

While I agree Hamas is purposefully exposing the civilian population to attacks, you should be able to expect Isreal to take a little more care with civilian lives. There are certain tactics and choices they are making that isn't OK and that should be called out. I have read reports that suggest that the reason civilian infrastructure is being hit (the UN hospital for instance) is because rockets are being fired from their roofs by Hamas - which is a war crime in itself. That said, Isreal should do their uttmost to avoid hitting these targets, and the Iron Dome theoretically allows them to pick and choose their targets a little more than what they seem to be doing.

Drizzle said:
Seen a lot of people saying that Israel wants to annex Gaza again. I'm really not sure that's true. They didn't want it to start with and left willingly 20 years ago. Way too much trouble and resource to fully occupy it, and not a lot of benefit. This isn't about expansionism but neutralising threat.

Of course, even without the serious moral concerns, bombing it like this is not going to neutralise the threat, it'll increase it longterm, from all sides.
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I don't think they have a choice any longer. Palestine lost control of the area to a terrorist organisation, in no small part because of Isreali interference. If they don't take Gaza they will be back there in a few years, and next time the group in charge might be worse and better equipped than Hamas. The tunnel network, the smuggling routes, and a growing dissenting population makes it a powder-keg that will explode again and again. After these attacks they can't afford to keep propping up a terrorist organisation to sabotage the possibility of a long-term peace with Palestine.
 
For the current conflict (And I'm not including the terrorist attackers in these figures) the CCR is likely over 10:1, which means of the 1500 casualties, only 500 or so are likely to be Hamas.
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:wenger:
 
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