Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less

[Allegedly] - Saudi Arabia has ended all negotiations on normalisation with Israel. Not 100% certain on the source, so won't share it for now.
 
neverdie said:
As for Arafat, he rejected a solution which would have rejected itself (by popular Palestnian discontent). There's a good documentary, from the American led intermediary team, which came out recently and even they admit that whilst they blamed Arafat at the time, and wanted it to go through, there was an obvious problem inasmuch as Arafat could sign the accord but then watch the place go up in flames immediately after (it wouldn't have been accepted and most admit that now).
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Nothing will get accepted, there’s too many extremists with a vested interest in the status quo.
 
Laurencio said:
There are 2.5 million civilians on the Gaza strip. None of which will be unaffected by continously bombing and a full scale ground invasion. It's a nightmare scenario. Someone needs to provide relief and we all know that Israel won't - and you unfortunately can't expect them to considering what Hamas just did.
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Egypt's primary responsibility is to it's own people. Never mind the logistics of all those people, a good number of them will only cause trouble for Egypt. They're never going to let them in.
 
11101 said:
Egypt's primary responsibility is to it's own people. Never mind the logistics of all those people, a good number of them will only cause trouble for Egypt. They're never going to let them in.
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I understand that. It's just a really terrible situation.
 
The normalisation of anti-palestinian racism in Europe continues.



“War in Israel and Palestine leads to violence by a teacher at the Ernst Abbe Gymnasium in Neukölln. A student shows the Palestinian flag, gets a slap in the face from the teacher, and the student defends himself. Student is suspended.

I learned from my teachers at school that we discuss differences. Pedagogical goal fulfilled?”
 
The Corinthian said:
Arafat didn't want to lose Al Aqsa, and why would he?
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Because the alternative to losing Al Aqsa was a million times worse. Essentially continued apartheid and indiscriminate eternal bombing.

And, unless geopolitics massively change, the next time the Palestinians will have the chance to get peace, it will be a far worse deal than just losing Al Aqsa. In meanwhile, millions of lives would be destroyed. Thing is, the geopolitics can change for the worse (e.g., Arab countries willing to fight Israel, to Arab countries normalizing the relations with Israel).

Some pragmatism is needed at times.
 
nickm said:
Nothing will get accepted, there’s too many extremists with a vested interest in the status quo.
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Well, what happens when they go into Gaza, the WB explodes (clashes kicking off there already if anyone is following it), and then, potentially, Hezbollah come from the north? How does that resolve itself. Something will have to be accepted because that's not a war either Israel nor the Arab contingency can, in today's world, win. Israel couldn't defeat Hezbollah 20 years ago and they are far more substantial in qualitative terms now than they were then (as is the general influence of the Arab League which has supported Palestine unanimously).

Raoul said:
Hamas have confirmed their true intentions.
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Which the AL has come out and entirely supported. Which confirms the demise of the Abraham Accords given that it represents every state implied within it. EU/US playing a dodgy game. Both will be dead to that region if they are seen to take Israel's side, disproportionately, (this time). A 4 trillion dollar bloc which projected not so far ahead is easily 10-15 trillion in terms of population, age, education, and landmass.

I mean, the US provides Israel with all of its top weapons despite them confirming their true intentions a long time ago. It's just hypocrisy. Two different standards for two different peoples. Change in world balance of things, imo, won't see it end the same way.
 
Revan said:
alternative
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Not an alternative. That was the entire premise of his rejection. It would end up being a bloodbath and the peace would last about as long as it took for news of it to reach Palestine. After which, it would be the Palestinians who the world would blame for breaking the peace treaty when, given its rejection, history will demonstrate, as it already does, that Israel has, since the Oslo accords, and thereafter, continuously entrenched an apartheid regime which has managed to, as South Africa did, tear itself apart internally, also. All predicted by many people.
 
neverdie said:
Well, what happens when they go into Gaza, the WB explodes (clashes kicking off there already if anyone is following it), and then, potentially, Hezbollah come from the north? How does that resolve itself. Something will have to be accepted because that's not a war either Israel nor the Arab contingency can, in today's world, win. Israel couldn't defeat Hezbollah 20 years ago and they are far more substantial in qualitative terms now than they were then (as is the general influence of the Arab League which has supported Palestine unanimously).
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They definitely can defeat them in a full-scale war. How many times they have to defeat several Arab countries together until people stop claiming that they cannot defeat X and Y.

They can defeat Palestinians and Hezbollah and Syria together, while bombing Tehran to stone ages. Of course, the question is are they willing to pay the price if they do so (which would be lots of Israeli dying too).
 
Revan said:
They can defeat Palestinians and Hezbollah and Syria together, while bombing Tehran to stone ages. Of course, the question is are they willing to pay the price if they do so (which would be lots of Israeli dying too).
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I guarantee you, that is a fantasy. Go back to the last time they had to engage, seriously, with Hezbollah. They lost. No one wants it to happen, but if it does, Israel isn't forcing a massive defeat across a front that enormous. It hasn't got the army to do it despite having qualitative advantages. This isn't the 70s. It has changed.

If they were to go into Lebanon and Syria (already there in a small way) in a big way, and hundreds of thousands in Gaza, not to mention the same to keep WB in order, they would be overrun. Fighters from across the Arab world, as it goes, would also join overnight if it kicked off on that scale. The conventional groundwar against the Arab states isn't what Israel faces now. Completely different set of problems.
 
Revan said:
Because the alternative to losing Al Aqsa was a million times worse. Essentially continued apartheid and indiscriminate eternal bombing.

And, unless geopolitics massively change, the next time the Palestinians will have the chance to get peace, it will be a far worse deal than just losing Al Aqsa. In meanwhile, millions of lives would be destroyed. Thing is, the geopolitics can change for the worse (e.g., Arab countries willing to fight Israel, to Arab countries normalizing the relations with Israel).

Some pragmatism is needed at times.
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Is there anything left for Palestinians in a peace-deal? Gaza is already getting pummeled and all that's left on the west bank are a handful of pockets amid Israeli territory.
 
Laurencio said:
Is there anything left for Palestinians in a peace-deal? Gaza is already getting pummeled and all that's left on the west bank are a handful of pockets amid Israeli territory.
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It will depend on how far Israel will go in Gaza. Impossible to say right now.
 
CNN reporting an attempted infiltration from southern Lebanon just now. Nothing too serious apparently and was dealt with through a brief firefight. Probably one of the black flag organizations in southern Lebanon probing Israeli capabilities in the north.
 
neverdie said:
I guarantee you, that is a fantasy. Go back to the last time they had to engage, seriously, with Hezbollah. They lost. No one wants it to happen, but if it does, Israel isn't forcing a massive defeat across a front that enormous. It hasn't got the army to do it despite having qualitative advantages. This isn't the 70s. It has changed.

If they were to go into Lebanon and Syria (already there in a small way) in a big way, and hundreds of thousands in Gaza, not to mention the same to keep WB in order, they would be overrun. Fighters from across the Arab world, as it goes, would also join overnight if it kicked off on that scale. The conventional groundwar against the Arab states isn't what Israel faces now. Completely different set of problems.
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All of this is based on the assumption that Israel does not use its nuclear weapons. If they wanted, they could erase the whole Middle East. That's why we'll never see an united arab-muslim war against Israel again. If Israel feels their very existence is threatened, they will cross all red lines.
 
Apparently they've been beheading both military and civilian hostages. Needs fact checked by those who watch the Hamas videos. I don't have the stomach for it.
 
Ragnar123 said:
All of this is based on the assumption that Israel does not use its nuclear weapons. If they wanted, they could erase the whole Middle East. That's why we'll never see a united arab-muslim war against Israel again. If Israel feels their very existence is threatened, they will cross all red lines.
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They can't use nuclear weapons against non-state actors. And even if it were against Iran, how can they use nuclear weapons? The world, including Israel, would go up in flames overnight. They'd be bombing themselves, more or less, with the nuclear option considering the millions of Palestinians who live within Israel proper. The nuclear weapons are basically a dud in today's world with respect to Israel unless it was actually against Iran, directly. And even then, there's just no way the US or any of Israel's backers are going to side with it.

Arab states don't want a war with Israel, period, nuclear weapons or not. But likes of Hezbollah will very quickly get involved if it goes into certain extreme zones (who knows).


Israeli internal assessment of Hezbollah:



"As of 2017, the Israeli government believe Hezbollah had an arsenal of nearly 150,000 rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon.[206] Some of these missiles are said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat.[207] The IDF has accused Hezbollah of storing these rockets beneath hospitals, schools, and civilian homes.[207] Hezbollah has also used drones against Israel, by penetrating air defense systems, in a report verified by Nasrallah, who added, "This is only part of our capabilities".[208]

Israeli military officials and analysts have also drawn attention to the experience and weaponry the group would have gained from the involvement of thousands of its fighters in the Syrian Civil War. "This kind of experience cannot be bought," said Gabi Siboni, director of the military and strategic affairs program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "It is an additional factor that we will have to deal with. There is no replacement for experience, and it is not to be scoffed at."[209]"


They're far more equipped and battle-hardened than the last time the two met.
 
Pintu said:
The normalisation of anti-palestinian racism in Europe continues.



“War in Israel and Palestine leads to violence by a teacher at the Ernst Abbe Gymnasium in Neukölln. A student shows the Palestinian flag, gets a slap in the face from the teacher, and the student defends himself. Student is suspended.

I learned from my teachers at school that we discuss differences. Pedagogical goal fulfilled?”
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Teachers should not hit students, but the video shows mostly backpacks and you spin this into normalization of racism, even when the tweet you went through the trouble of translating makes no mention of it. Good posting.
 
As usual it’s just going to be the civilians who suffer. Civilians who were brutalised by Hamas. Civilians in Gaza who are going to be without food, water and electricity because of the Israeli response. The whole situation is repulsive. And both are to blame. Hamas obviously triggered these events but as a result of decades of inhumane behaviour on both sides of this. It’s just sad.
 
do.ob said:
Teachers should not hit students, but the video shows mostly backpacks and you spin this into normalization of racism, even when the tweet you went through the trouble of translating makes no mention of it. Good posting.
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Hard to be absolutely certain with all the backpacks but looks like the student struck the first blow too? Teacher's head certainly snaps around quite sharply, before he raises his hand.
 
neverdie said:
They can't use nuclear weapons against non-state actors. And even if it were against Iran, how can they use nuclear weapons? The world, including Israel, would go up in flames overnight. They'd be bombing themselves, more or less, with the nuclear option considering the millions of Palestinians who live within Israel proper. The nuclear weapons are basically a dud in today's world with respect to Israel unless it was actually against Iran, directly. And even then, there's just no way the US or any of Israel's backers are going to side with it.

Arab states don't want a war with Israel, period, nuclear weapons or not. But likes of Hezbollah will very quickly get involved if it goes into certain extreme zones (who knows).


Israeli internal assessment of Hezbollah:



"As of 2017, the Israeli government believe Hezbollah had an arsenal of nearly 150,000 rockets stationed on its border with Lebanon.[206] Some of these missiles are said to be capable of penetrating cities as far away as Eilat.[207] The IDF has accused Hezbollah of storing these rockets beneath hospitals, schools, and civilian homes.[207] Hezbollah has also used drones against Israel, by penetrating air defense systems, in a report verified by Nasrallah, who added, "This is only part of our capabilities".[208]

Israeli military officials and analysts have also drawn attention to the experience and weaponry the group would have gained from the involvement of thousands of its fighters in the Syrian Civil War. "This kind of experience cannot be bought," said Gabi Siboni, director of the military and strategic affairs program at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. "It is an additional factor that we will have to deal with. There is no replacement for experience, and it is not to be scoffed at."[209]"


They're far more equipped and battle-hardened than the last time the two met.
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We're talking hypothetical here with the most extreme scenario that surrounding muslim/arab countries unite to destroy Israel. If Arab fighters gather from all surrounding countries to attack Israel as you've said, that would make those states participants. Of course the world would go up in flames, but if you think you're going down anyways, you will take others with you. That's the most extreme scenario, but some people seem to forget that Israel is a nuclear power as well with around 100 nukes which would be enough to erase a united muslim-arab front from the map.
But I also think, that US would never allow Israel being attacked from all sides and would intervene in time. That would also be the end of a united front against Israel. Hizbollah is stronger than Hamas, but they alone do not pose an existential threat to Israel, not even together with Hamas. And every other participant would meet with US missiles, I'm pretty sure of it.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Hard to be absolutely certain with all the backpacks but looks like the student struck the first blow too? Teacher's head certainly snaps around quite sharply, before he raises his hand.
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I don't think we're getting far in either direction from that video. The best indicator is perhaps the one sided consequences the school supposedly took, but people in charge protecting each other wouldn't be a novelty either.
 
711 said:
I don't know the details of that one. Why did Arafat reject it?
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I remember a quote that he was offered 98% of what he wanted and rejected hence getting the nickname "no deal Arafat". However my knowledge of all this is scant, so people more invested in the subject can explain the details better.
 
Ragnar123 said:
We're talking hypothetical here with the most extreme scenario that surrounding muslim/arab countries unite to destroy Israel. If Arab fighters gather from all surrounding countries to attack Israel as you've said, that would make those states participants. Of course the world would go up in flames, but if you think you're going down anyways, you will take others with you. That's the most extreme scenario, but some people seem to forget that Israel is a nuclear power as well with around 100 nukes which would be enough to erase a united muslim-arab front from the map.
But I also think, that US would never allow Israel being attacked from all sides and would intervene in time. That would also be the end of a united front against Israel. Hizbollah is stronger than Hamas, but they alone do not pose an existential threat to Israel, not even together with Hamas. And every other participant would meet with US missiles, I'm pretty sure of it.
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The repercussions would go further than just Israel. It'll be Christian vs Muslim, Muslim vs. West all over the world.
 
Ragnar123 said:
We're talking hypothetical here with the most extreme scenario that surrounding muslim/arab countries unite to destroy Israel. If Arab fighters gather from all surrounding countries to attack Israel as you've said, that would make those states participants. Of course the world would go up in flames, but if you think you're going down anyways, you will take others with you. That's the most extreme scenario, but some people seem to forget that Israel is a nuclear power as well with around 100 nukes which would be enough to erase a united muslim-arab front from the map.
But I also think, that US would never allow Israel being attacked from all sides and would intervene in time. That would also be the end of a united front against Israel. Hizbollah is stronger than Hamas, but they alone do not pose an existential threat to Israel, not even together with Hamas. And every other participant would meet with US missiles, I'm pretty sure of it.
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They united twice to wipe Israel off the map and lost when Israel were a significantly weaker military power. Not going to happen for a 3rd time.
 
neverdie said:
Look at the map. There is just a tiny population tilt in Palestinian identification terms among the Occupied WestBank, Gaza, and Israel Proper. If Palestine disappears, where does Israel go? Millions of Palestinian, Palestinan-Israeli, already settled within Israel proper and no room (or space open) to the West, North, South, and only a Sea to the East.

Two million Arabic/Palestinian within Israel proper, and then over five million between Gaza and the West Bank. Just over Israel's 7.1 million Jewish population with Arabic states already complaining, endlessly, about Palestinian refugee camps. There is nowhere for the Palestinians to go. Either two states or perpetual war. Or one state and Israel gives up the Jewish state status.
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I meant Palestine as a state.

What's actually left of it is not viable nor will ever be able to function as a geographical, economical and political entity. You just can't have a country that's literally divided in two completely separate entities, with your fiercest opponent in between, survive. There can't be a perpetual war nor a peaceful solution because there's no balance of power. One side is completely overwhelming the other and the rest of the world just doesn't care. Israel is clearly intent on recovering every single piece of land it thinks it's entitled to, no matter the cost and no matter how long it will take, and there's absolutely no one on the planet who will stop them to do so.

The Palestinians will be either forced out (very likely) or absorbed (in what terms, no one knows). I'm not talking in terms of years, history has a whole other time scale for these matters and it's not the first time humanity saw massive population movements or exodi. Absolutely everything is working against the Palestinians and I just can't see how it could be turned around. People with no power, like all the neighbouring arab countries, can complain all they want, they'll never get a say in the matter.

Might makes right, as a famous french poet said more than three hundred years ago. That's just how international relationships work.

Unless there's there's a dramatic change in the current international power equilibrium, and I mean by that a WW equivalent, a free, independant palestinian state is a pipe dream that's bound to die sooner or later. We might even live long enough to see that happen.
 
Gehrman said:
They united twice to wipe Israel off the map and lost when Israel were a significantly weaker military power. Not going to happen for a 3rd time.
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It happened 3 times right: 1948, 1967 and 1973. The first war was when Israel was a baby state, the second time they got humiliated in 6 days and the third time they caused some pain to Israel but still convincingly lost.
 
Revan said:
It happened 3 times right: 1948, 1967 and 1973. The first war was when Israel was a baby state, the second time they got humiliated in 6 days and the third time they caused some pain to Israel but still convincingly lost.
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I stand corrected
 
Revan said:
It happened 3 times right: 1948, 1967 and 1973. The first war was when Israel was a baby state, the second time they got humiliated in 6 days and the third time they caused some pain to Israel but still convincingly lost.
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Arab states hate each other more than they hate, or rather hated, Israel. There wasn't any coordination between them during those wars.
 
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