Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less

Raoul said:
Is this the same twenty something woman attending a peace concert in southern Israel whose abduction was posted on Twitter earlier ?
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No, that's different one who was also at this festival, there's footage of her alive and well.
 
neverdie said:
Yep. The dangerous part is what happens next. Because if it goes really bad, Hezbollah, and this is six months in the making (this specific scenario), are massed in the north by the blue line. They sort of let it be known that should something like this happen, they may very well move from the north into the conflict. If that happens, then a world of shit is unleashed. And whilst Iran obviously funds Hezbollah, it really, despite the usual Iranian-Israeli hatred (their tensions/conflicts over decades) isn't an Iranian produced movement. As for the rationale, only Hamas knows that. But as Raoul said, there will be an inevitable response and by my reading of the situation the only thing they - Hamas - can be trying to do here is signal to Hezbollah in the north. That would be catastrophic for the Arabs and Israelis. It's scatter-brained madness by Hamas. The Saudis already stipulated, and seriously meant it, that they won't accept normalization without the two-state being firmly binding. So that's not why Hamas did it. To put it on the world's agenda? Maybe. It was inevitable, but I, being very pro-Palestinian, wouldn't justify it for a second because it is anti-Palestinian security (and anti-Israeli too).

Just to add: it is anti-Iranian regime in this instance because they've been about as pro-Saudi as they can be for the past two years. They're not tearing up years of diplomacy with the Arabic states for this one instance (constantly speaking with the Saudis now).
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The US seem to be expecting that as Biden was quite clear that anyone trying to take advantage of the situation would end up having to deal with the US as well.

I agree with you, this is not good for anyone, least of all the civilian population in Palestine.
 
owlo said:
I believe there’s talks of a national unity government, as they don’t believe they can fight a war with loons like Ben gvir and smotrich in charge. Likely depends on if bibi can extract immunity for corruption or whatever. Be in no doubt though, this will be brutal and murderous. The IAF will flatten Gaza before the tanks even roll, and plenty of innocents will lose their lives.

The roof knocks are far from perfect, they try to use an inert charge and sms etc as Raoul said, but they generally only give 5 minutes warning or so. Not much use for a disabled guy On the 6th floor.
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Damn, 5 minutes? That's rough.
 
neverdie said:
Yep. The dangerous part is what happens next. Because if it goes really bad, Hezbollah, and this is six months in the making (this specific scenario), are massed in the north by the blue line. They sort of let it be known that should something like this happen, they may very well move from the north into the conflict. If that happens, then a world of shit is unleashed. And whilst Iran obviously funds Hezbollah, it really, despite the usual Iranian-Israeli hatred (their tensions/conflicts over decades) isn't an Iranian produced movement. As for the rationale, only Hamas knows that. But as Raoul said, there will be an inevitable response and by my reading of the situation the only thing they - Hamas - can be trying to do here is signal to Hezbollah in the north. That would be catastrophic for the Arabs and Israelis. It's scatter-brained madness by Hamas. The Saudis already stipulated, and seriously meant it, that they won't accept normalization without the two-state being firmly binding. So that's not why Hamas did it. To put it on the world's agenda? Maybe. It was inevitable, but I, being very pro-Palestinian, wouldn't justify it for a second because it is anti-Palestinian security (and anti-Israeli too).

Just to add: it is anti-Iranian regime in this instance because they've been about as pro-Saudi as they can be for the past two years. They're not tearing up years of diplomacy with the Arabic states for this one instance (constantly speaking with the Saudis now). And the only reason I add it is because I know the usual anti-Iranian media stuff to come which will completely ignore internal movements across the Middle East between Iran and those states it is trying to also reach consensus with. Only works that way (it's Iran's fault) from a myopic Western oriented point of view.
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Hezbollah has over 130K missiles of various strength.

That is an insane number.

https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/hezbollahs-rocket-arsenal/
 
calodo2003 said:
Hezbollah reportedly has 130K

Hezbollah has over 130K missiles of various strength.

That is an insane number.
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Yep, insane is the key term, too. In terms of various fighters, they also have many tens of thousands camped. Weridly, as said, this is one instance where Iran won't want any part of it regardless of what they say in public to satisify their own hardliner base.
 
neverdie said:
Yep, insane is the key term, too. In terms of various fighters, they also have many tens of thousands camped. Weridly, as said, this is one instance where Iran won't want any part of it regardless of what they say in public to satisify their own hardliner base.
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Just posted like the guy on Goodfellas who always says everything twice, says everything twice.
 
neverdie said:
Trying to condense four years of movements across that region into a few sentences. Just a broad uptick/trend for the Arab League as, for once in its entire existence, an autonomous bloc.

I suggest reading https://new.thecradle.co/. It's the best english-language source for things that are not easily stated on forum posts. It's balanced (inasmuch as you can expect it) and not the typical anti-Israeli thing (more concerned with larger Arab trends, economic-political, through Northern Africa and obviously the "standard" Arabic region (we rarely include the Islamic Africans within that region).

Simply put. The Iranians and Saudis have been engaged in diplomatic mutually assured deescalation which is being mediated by the Arab League in general. Saudi plans for transport links, modernization, Turkey and the Emirati states building a massive interlinking trade corridor, Iranians and Iraqis engaged in something similar. Just promising news, if you take it all together, coming from that region. Yemen, and certain other conflicts aside (the state of Libya let's say), it might be the most peaceful/optimistic the Middle East (the Arabic League M.E. has looked in the lifetime of all people upon the planet).

The Saudis want to modernize. It's happening, albeit to their own pace. The Iranians want (as do the Saudis for the first time in 50 years or more) a genuine understanding (economic/zones/military/etc.). It's just a general rise of that region which is absolutely looking decades ahead. Might not be the best of explanations but it is literally four to five years of economic Middle-East stuff which I cannot really represent well here.

If you were 5, I'd just say: from the Arabic perspective, it hasn't looked better in any person's lifetime. Anyone interested, beyond those here who know it as well or better than me, natives, academics, etc, needs to follow the economic agreements being made throughout the Middle East and Africa and driven by the Arab Leauge. The AL, as it goes, has always seemed useless but now, and in decades to come, you can see it actually working for most of the states involved. The Chinese/US/Russian point is just this: they tolerate great powers but they, now, see themselves, via the AL as an emerging power which thus hedges its "bets" against all the other powers (more collective now than it has been perhaps ever).

Not the easiest poster to comprehend, so I just point you to deep political-economic readings which you can find at thecradle.co and other places.

As one example: the Saudis want to do business in Syria and the Arab League has conclusively accepted Assad back into the fold. The Saudis made this known to the US. They also made it known that the two-state solution is their price for various other US goals within the region (and this is rare). Follow it daily, or weekly, and you see an Arab League actually coming together, despite differences which will always exist, as an economic-political giant (or relatively so). So the Saudis/Iranians do hedge agains the US/China/Russia (etc) but it is understood now that there is a limit to any imposition upon the Arab world, whatever the nation, or bloc, insofar as deciding their own future goes.

US wants Israeli recognition (across the AL). I.e., that's the hedge the Saudis made (publicly) and entirely because of the Arab League (they cannot function within that league if they accept US demands but let the Palestinian issue go; which, turning to a week or two ago, is why the Saudi minister, for the first time in decades, went to the WB and publicly let the two state requirment be known). Fatah, now, not so much Hamas (but, again, the AL has coordinated meetings between Hamas and Fatah and even IL with the latter opting out because of internal disputes with Fatah and their general remit when it comes to IL fighters). It's just a general Arab confidence which hasn't existed in centuries (probably since the Ottoman Empire but ask someone else about that, I'm not qualified to give you that history).
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So how does that all change after today? And in the face of what is about to happen in Gaza?
 
neverdie said:
Yep, insane is the key term, too. In terms of various fighters, they also have many tens of thousands camped. Weridly, as said, this is one instance where Iran won't want any part of it regardless of what they say in public to satisify their own hardliner base.
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some interesting posts, thanks.

not sure hezbollah can afford to take part in this, they are stakeholders in Assad and syria, and more and more closely allied to Russia (a lot of their funding is through Russia conduited Iranian sanctions evasion) . Id imagine they want to ideologically, but it wouldnt be practical. That said, today has been full of surprises…
 
Raoul said:
Translation - "They had it coming".
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More "it has been coming". And that's just the truth. Cannot justify it, but this has been predicted, with complete certainty, for a few years now. If they go in hard, which seems to be what is happening, there's no way imo Hezbollah will stay out of that. Saudis don't want it; Iranians, despite the usual propaganda, do not want it (negotiating economic terms with both Saudi and US, the second in weird ways as always). And no Arab state wants it. I just don't see how you avoid what Hezbollah stated many months ago if it becomes an intifada (it will be hellish).
 
T00lsh3d said:
So how does that all change after today? And in the face of what is about to happen in Gaza?
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The broader future prospects for the AL will not change but it could be a completely avoidable set-back (already is) to years worth of progress within that region. If it goes intifada. I don't think it will (more hope perhaps than thought). Israel just declared war. Always at some state of war anyway but a declaration in those terms isn't common. That's bad news for everyone. Whether Arabic or Israeli or Persian or European or whatever. No one wins anything here.
 
neverdie said:
The broader future prospects for the AL will not change but it could be a completely avoidable set-back (already is) to years worth of progress within that region. If it goes intifada. I don't think it will (more hope perhaps than thought). Israel just declared war. Always at some state of war anyway but a declaration in those terms isn't common. That's bad news for everyone. Whether Arabic or Israeli or Persian or European or whatever. No one wins anything here.
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Is the oil price going back up then? (Asking the important questions, I know)
 
T00lsh3d said:
Is the oil price going back up then? (Asking the important questions, I know)
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If that happens, get your nuclear shelters ready because I don't see how the world could take a six-day war (lasting six decades) scenario on top of the Ukrainian nightmare and US/Chinese tensions, too. I don't see how the Arab states can possibly get involved. It would derail their progress and future for some time to come, which, contrary to some peoples' understanding, very much includes a stablized Israeli state (just with the stability being Palestinian autonomy along the Dershowitz-styled proposal). It's insane to think that Dershowitz, who was as hardline Israeli as they came, is now your moderate (and that's what I meant by this version of Israel, understood by Israelis themselves, see the Supreme Court fiasco, is the one the West is least capable of dealing with given the broader picture). He and Chomsky had a hostile two hour debate, well worth watching, two decades ago, but Dershowitz rejected incursions into the WB, as does every nation on the planet, and minimally said there has to be a two state solution (even giving an actual blueprint as to what it might look like). That is now liberal in comparison to the people Bibi courts for political office.
 
Not sure what the precise number of hostages in Gaza Israel is saying, but Hamas just said that the true number is 'much, much higher.'
 
the hea said:
So completly trapped, thats a fecked up situation for all the civilians living there.
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Yeah, I wonder why Egypt won’t let them in?
If you look into it it’s because of their fear of Hamas.

Raoul said:
Translation - "They had it coming".
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The majority of Palestinians I’ve spoke to don’t support the PLO or Hamas, so this guy can talk all he wants but there are no elections in Palestine. The people have no support.

so, war is waged now. My guess is Israel takes Palestine completely now.If Iran jumps in we have a massive issue, it becomes a world war.
 
TheRedHearted said:
Yeah, I wonder why Egypt won’t let them in?
If you look into it it’s because of their fear of Hamas.



The majority of Palestinians I’ve spoke to don’t support the PLO or Hamas, so this guy can talk all he wants but there are no elections in Palestine. The people have no support.

so, war is waged now. My guess is Israel takes Palestine completely now.If Iran jumps in we have a massive issue, it becomes a world war.
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Iran can't jump in as they're too far away, and if they somehow tried, they would get squashed immediately by the US. The best they can do is keep funneling weapons to their proxies to let them do their dirty work on their behalf.
 
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Raoul said:
Iran can't jump in as they're too far away, and if they somehow tried, they would get squashed immediately by the US. The best they can do is keep funneling weapons to their proxies to let them to their dirty work on their behalf.
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That’s my hope and belief, but that would add so much more bloodshed. Best case scenario is Israel takes the territory, gives Palestinians Food, water, infrastructure and there is a large Islamic presence in the Israeli parliament, they can feel seen and be heard
 
I'm really not sure I buy this whole 'Hamas has miscalculated' viewpoint. I can't see any way that they'd have thought that a death toll in the hundreds, potentially even a thousand or more, along with taking maybe 100 hostages, would lead to anything other than the most extreme possible response from the Israelis. They are well aware how strong the response will be. On some level I think they've come to the conclusion that this was their best course of action, despite the consequences.
 
Reading all the comments from political leaders in the west, not one has expressed any sympathy for the Palestinian civilians...
 
Superden said:
Reading all the comments from political leaders in the west, not one has expressed any sympathy for the Palestinian civilians...
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I don't think anyone could reasonably expect them to, today. Other days, yes, but not today.

Edit - Corbyn has, obviously.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I'm really not sure I buy this whole 'Hamas has miscalculated' viewpoint. I can't see any way that they'd have thought that a death toll in the hundreds, potentially even a thousand or more, along with taking maybe 100 hostages, would lead to anything other than the most extreme possible response from the Israelis. They are well aware how strong the response will be. On some level I think they've come to the conclusion that this was their best course of action, despite the consequences.
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They didn't miscalculate. They knew exactly what they were doing and obviously behaved in a premeditated way for maximum surprise and carnage.

Also, since Hamas have historically used human shields as part of their strategy, its perfectly reasonable to presume they are comfortable with the deaths of their own civilians as a propaganda tactic to advance their political objectives.
 
golden_blunder said:
These threads are going to go round and round infinitely if people keep engaging in “but what about…?”

can we not agree to condemn individual acts on their own merits no matter what side commit the atrocities?
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The problem is that the mass media legitimise the actions of the israeli colonialists, brushing off any and all atrocities done by the israeli terrorists to the Gaza population. Until reporting is done fairly, which won't ever happen, the conflict will go around in circles and israeli state terrorists will act with impunity murdering women and children.
 
Devil_forever said:
People should really watch the videos of what friendly Palestinian terrorists are doing to the dead bodies of Israelis, how they’re man handling captured Israeli women, imagine what they will do to her in the name of what their religion permits against the Jews? Why do I say religion? In every clip they’re screaming god is great.

I can’t wait for everyone to come out and condemn Israel for fighting back though against such peaceful people.
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Vomiting emoji
 
Raoul said:
Not sure if its real but the Israeli grandmother being forced to hold an AK-47 while the Hamas guy takes a pic with her was a bit disturbing.
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If it's the same woman in a pink top, seeing her smiling in the back seat of a Jeep while flanked by two screaming idiots preening for the camera was also unsettling. She looked caught in the throes of dementia, just happy to be out & interacting with people, not a care in the world in her eyes.
 
gormless said:
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1710757415388414307?s=46&t=0QjsaQmW-MoAdLc-mrBJ2g


That poor woman.
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The whole situation is unspeakably grim. At this point it's impossible to see any way to peace in the region.

Whatever anyone's loyalties may be the killing, abduction, torture or imprisonment of civilians on either side can only be condemned. I'm no fan of Israel but the apparent celebration I'm seeing of the Hamas actions today, especially by some sections of the left in Ireland, is sickening. Yes, I believe the occupation should end but there's no cause for celebration today.
 
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