Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

thegregster said:
They are firing at civilians.
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My post was obviously in jest, but being pedantic and assuming this story is actually verified, this poor civilian was killed by the debris of the missile being intercepted. Its fair to assume where that debris landed was not the intended target.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Last time the missiles were cruise missiles, subsonic and takes hours to reach and can be intercepted by AMRAAMs and Sparrows.

This time it was mostly ballistic missiles which short of some very well positioned/lucky F-22's and F-15E's just happening to be in that trajectory at the exact moment, aircraft cannot intercept.
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Mate, you can't imagine how welcome and informative your posts are. And I mean it.

Cheers.
 
Kaos said:
My post was obviously in jest, but being pedantic and assuming this story is actually verified, this poor civilian was killed by the debris of the missile being intercepted. Its fair to assume where that debris landed was not the intended target.
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We'll see if Iran takes a leaf out of israel's book and follows up with a double tap.
 
buchansleftleg said:
Those missile hits don't seem to have much impact.... have these missiles got a smaller warhead to try and beat the defences? Or is it just not showing because of the distance?
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Could be distance, but even a small warhead exploding at that velocity creates a visible boom.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Mk-41 VLS launchers have a launch time of 0.8s (+-0.5s) gap between each missile. You usually have a forward VLS package and an aft VLS package which means two can be fired at once by the ship. Burke's and Tico's range from 90 to 122 VLS tubes per ship. The bottleneck isn't the firing speed of the VLS tubes, but for the combat control systems and guidance systems to fully integrate and guide each missile as it is launched.

There is also a mode for Mk41's that allow for every single missile to be launched at the exact same time up into the air. This will destroy most of the tubes and is only used in extreme emergency situations such as, "Our carrier will mostly likely get hit with this wave."

Also, SM-2's will provide the backbone of the interceptions. SM-3 and SM-6 for the high threat stuff. Not to mention quad-packed ESSM's.

All this together means that a standard CSG carries anything between 500-600 interceptors.
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Interesting. I had no idea that a CSG carried that many interceptors. I would have thought maybe 400 at most with the rest of the VLS tubes having surface attack missiles.
 
RedTiger said:
Oh ffs. How is your friend bro?
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He's good. His family are all safe, one of his friends saw it all from his apartment.

Though my friend was due to go back to Syria in November despite me telling him for a week it was a dumb idea. This time he just text me saying, "Yeah, doesn't seem likely I'll go."

The civil war has taken a complete toll on him. He doesn't view danger rationally anymore.

One of our conversations literally went like this:

"Mate, don't go to Syria, you never know when a bomb lands on where you are."

"Bombs have been dropping around me since I was 17. I'm still here. I'll be fine."
 
That is it for Iran, the retaliation will be brutal.

Great job on keeping middle east stable genocide Joe
 
the hea said:
Interesting. I had no idea that a CSG carried that many interceptors. I would have thought maybe 400 at most with the rest of the VLS tubes having surface attack missiles.
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Quad packing ESSM's really increased that number.

With 2 DDG's + 1 Tico you have around 302 VLS tubes.

But, with Quad packing ESSM's, reserving 24 VLS tubes per ships for ESSM's results in being able to pack 288 interceptors in just 72 tubes between the 3 ships. If the other 230 tubes are SM2/3/6 then you essentially have 518 interceptors.

Once you include SeaRam and the none-VLS tubed missiles, the number reaches or surpasses 600.

EDIT - You are right on the latter part, but not quite just now. Some destroyers/cruisers not part of a CSG will carry a high number of TLAM's, and some strike groups will carry TLAMs too. This number will increase once Navalized TLAM's go into serial production.

Right now, the Tomahawks are mostly fired from the SSN's that accompany a CSG.
 
4bars said:
That is it for Iran, the retaliation will be brutal.

Great job on keeping middle east stable genocide Joe
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It's also probably the end of any hope of peace in the middle east. I expect guerilla and terrorism everywhere.
 
My IDF friend in intelligence just wrote to me on whatsapp that the majority of the missiles that were caught on camera to be hit were purposefully ignored by the tracking computers because they were projected to hit/land on barren/empty desertland outside of the urban area.
 
JPRouve said:
It's also probably the end of any hope of peace in the middle east. I expect guerilla and terrorism everywhere.
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Everything goes. I don't think Iran regime will survive a sustained bombing. From there, the power will disegregate and radicalize. As you said it might well translate in terrorism everywhere.

Hopefully Iran doesn't have a nuclear from from Russia
 
AfonsoAlves said:
My IDF friend in intelligence just wrote to me on whatsapp that the majority of the missiles that were caught on camera to be hit were purposefully ignored by the tracking computers because they were projected to hit/land on barren/empty desertland outside of the urban area.
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Yeah, some analysts on Twitter mentioned this too.
 
People saying Israel's response will be massive. This is Iran's response to Israel (has been waited on for a couple of weeks after bombs and assassinations which became impossible for them not to make after the other day).
 
neverdie said:
People saying Israel's response will be massive. This is Iran's response to Israel (has been waited on for a couple of weeks after bombs and assassinations which became impossible for them not to make after the other day).
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Are you trying to apply logic to Israel attacks? We are applying Israel logics on how they usually responds
 
4bars said:
Are you trying to apply logic to Israel attacks?
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There is a weird tit-for-tat logic between the US/Iran and Israel. Has been for quite some time. Escalatory size, expected revenge, public face keeping and so on. It is there.
 
4bars said:
That is it for Iran, the retaliation will be brutal.

Great job on keeping middle east stable genocide Joe
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They notified USA (so Israel too) and Russia about attack. Response will be the same as last time. One attack of some millitary area and then back to swears and insults only. They both are biggest players out there with both having good relations with world's top dogs (USA and Russia).

Luckily, there will be no major war between those two. Especially being separated with Iraq so they can't go head to head directly.
 
Andycoleno9 said:
They noticed USA (so Israel too) and Russia about attack. Response will be the same as last time. One attack of some millitary area and then back to swears and insults only. They both are biggest players out there with both having good relations with world's top dogs (USA and Russia).

Luckily, there will be no major war between those two. Especially being separated with Iraq so they can't go head to head directly.
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Russia in the "worlds top dogs" category.

It can't even project power to a poor sub 10k GDP/c country that is its direct neighbour in an effective way.
 
neverdie said:
There is a weird tit-for-tat logic between the US/Iran and Israel. Has been for quite some time. Escalatory size, expected revenge, public face keeping and so on. It is there.
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Andycoleno9 said:
They noticed USA (so Israel too) and Russia about attack. Response will be the same as last time. One attack of some millitary area and then back to swears and insults only. They both are biggest players out there with both having good relations with world's top dogs (USA and Russia).

Luckily, there will be no major war between those two. Especially being separated with Iraq so they can't go head to head directly.
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I don't think we are in this camp anymore. Israel is out for blood and as I read a few times already, they are taking it like a generational opportunity in Gaza, WB, Hezbollah, Lebannon and Iran

I hope you are both right
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Russia in the "worlds top dogs" category.

It can't even project power to a poor sub 10k GDP/c country that is its direct neighbour in an effective way.
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You perfectly know it is not that simple. But that is another topic. Russia, Usa and China are 3 top dogs in the world. But, of course that USA is alpha dog.
 
4bars said:
they are taking it like a generational opportunity in Gaza, WB, Hezbollah, Lebannon and Iran
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They are trying. No doubt. The other day it was published in the JPost that Greater Judea was promised to Israel by God. That would be Southern Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank and so on (parts of Syria, too, I guess). They cannot, for long, maintain any serious incursion in Lebanon (which moves north) because Hezbollah will not allow it (see 2006). A different beast to Hamas despite Israel's qualitative advantages. They cannot, that is, even do the things the settler mentalists want in Gaza and West Bank (yet) despite what is now an obvious attempt to try.

If Israel were to attack Iran it would require genuine support, not just arms, from the US. It would have to draw the US into that war and the US knows it and wants no part of it. The entire Middle East would be on flames if it were to happen and the US (not Israel) would be receiving all the blame. In the era of rising Arab states, and blocs, and more, it just isn't sane or desirable from even a war-planning point of view to engage Iran in all out war (it would be disastrous for all involved).
 
Does Iran have any decent air defence?

And is this another telegraphed attack?
 
2mufc0 said:
Does Iran have any decent air defence?

And is this another telegraphed attack?
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Russian air defenses. Decent, then, but clearly not as good as Israel's. Much better than Lebanon's which is basically non-existent and even Syria's which is basically entirely Russian, too, but not as concentrated or complex. The mil intel poster I was chatting with earlier ought to know the specifics.
 
2mufc0 said:
Does Iran have any decent air defence?

And is this another telegraphed attack?
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On paper they do, but then again on paper so did the Russians.

There's rumours that Iran have bought the S-400 from Russia although it remains to be seen if that is true.

S-300's are decent but they're about Patriot Standard/PAC-2 level, which is to say a generation or two behind Patriot PAC-3 MSE

But again, we have no real idea because the way the Russians have used the S-300 in Ukraine War has been awful.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Russia in the "worlds top dogs" category.

It can't even project power to a poor sub 10k GDP/c country that is its direct neighbour in an effective way.
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Can you explain the iron dome part. You said something in the sense its all bs.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Israel's anti-air is not good.

I have written in detail about this in this thread a while ago.
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It is designed for Hamas and so on, really, though, isn't it? The Iron Dome? I mean, it's pretty fecking good at what it does but what it does doesn't typically include anything beyond the capacity of the Palestinians (and Gaza within that set) if I am reading it right. It isn't designed for ballistic missiles (and I'm ready to be wrong here) of the caliber Iran is firing.
 
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