It make sense on paper, truly it does. But many in US are itching to get to Iran also. In the end, US will do what Israel does. I guess we will find out in the next month. Another thing to be optimistic for a hot war with Iran not happening is that Israel is planning Lebanon for now
Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic
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It make sense on paper, truly it does. But many in US are itching to get to Iran also. In the end, US will do what Israel does. I guess we will find out in the next month. Another thing to be optimistic for a hot war with Iran not happening is that Israel is planning Lebanon for now
There is a difference between Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon (which Israel has been firing rockets at for fifty years), and Iran. And the US knows it. It's a big difference. I have no idea how you could even imagine a war with the US and Iran that is not a Vietnam (exponentiated) scenario. And knowing that in advance, there's just no way. The Pentagon would shut that political bullshit down in seconds if it were mounting high. Unless Iran attacks a US warship or something like that, there just isn't any scenario where this happens.
Congratulations to Iran for conducting the most targeted strike we have yet seen.
Isreal response will be huge. There wont be a single school or hospital left.
It's not that their weapons platforms aren't good (they are), all the way from Iron Dome to Arrow-3 to David's Sling.
The big problem that they face is geography. They have no strategic depth because their country is so small.
They can't place early warning Radar's on their border, with 500km of desert to traverse before any missile gets to any urban area. All their population centres are in proximity of each other.
They have no data-link between their entire armed forces including air-force and navy for synchronized interception (Think Link-16 as an example). They don't have navalized air defense assets that are mobile.
Think about it this way.
Imagine Canada launches a missile at Washington DC is this ridiculous fictional scenario. US Early Warning in Maine detects it, Fighters from Upstate New York are scrambled to intercept, THAAD and Patriots from Rochester New York start firing, A second layer of strategic air defence in Philly/New York City region starts trying to intercept. By the time it reaches DC it would have had to go through multiple multiple layers of heavy Strategic depth in order to reach it.
Iran Fires at Tel Aviv. Israeli detects it. Israel doesn't have anything in Iraq/Jordan that they can use to intercept the incoming missiles (because it's not their country being the main reason), and by the time the Missile Arrives to hit Tel-Aviv it only has to deal with the air defenses in the block around Tel-Aviv because Israel has no strategic depth.
It also means their enemy can focus fire on one general region rather than spread their fires across 1000's of KM's.
Israel cannot park DDG's on their coastline to double up as Naval Interceptors. Mainly because they don't have that kind of naval asset.
They also lack the 24/7 Aerial coverage that the US has for example, with it's armies of intelligence planes circling all day every day.
Can someone ELI5 if possible the latest escalation here?
I know about the Hezbollah pagers thing, has Israel admitted it was them? Why have they been bombing Lebanon? Why did they target Hezbollah? And why are Iran now attacking Israel?
I know about the Hezbollah pagers thing, has Israel admitted it was them? Why have they been bombing Lebanon? Why did they target Hezbollah? And why are Iran now attacking Israel?
I am very aware about the differences. But we are in a very different scenario than the past, Israel has much more capabilities than 20 yeas ago and the assynchronity between the 2 countries is gigantic. Also Iran is the least stable ever. I am not saying an invasion of Iran, but carpet bombing for a while and the US defending Israel full on of Iran's attacks.
I can see it happening because Israel can go scot free while bombing none stop
A much more informative (militarily) comprehension of what I had assumed. Thanks. Question, doesn't Israel merely piggy back upon the US' concentric circles of missile defenses? Or is there a limit, regionally, to what the US is providing? I.e., having no real naval capacity of its own, isn't the Israeli calculus that the US fills that gap?
Kind of, just earlier the DoD launched a press release that said three US destroyers in the region were providing interceptions for Israel.
By the way, the "Circles" of air defense is a myth, that also needs to die!
There are so many factors that go into the interception range of a missile that drawing an arbitary circle around Anti-air assets tells us absolutely nothing.
. So true.The death of the Hezbollah commander and Hamas leader on what was perceived to be Iran's watch (Iranian officials killed in the former, the latter taking place in Iran) is largely the issue to which Iran has been expected to respond.
The irony of this all has become a feature of this genocide .....
I'm not sure there's any country on earth that would have acted much differently this last year.
If the Israeli's are going to retaliate Iran need to place all their air defences around schools, hospitals, antenatal clinics, nurseries and universities.
Depends.
If you truly seek peace, that's the worse thing you can do. If you want to assert your domination on other countries and/or people, that might help you win battles but you'll always end up losing the war.
Israel isn't the first colonial country that used such tactics. Their efficiency relies on the complete destruction of the people they're up against, otherwise it's bound to blow back.
You can't be serious
.So much tunnels and command centers to be destroyed.
Does the entire discourse around today's actions serve to just piss me off?
What?
People, just watch and read carefully how the mainstream media is going to describe the attack and its damage.
That's propaganda 101 being played right in front of your eyes.
That's propaganda 101 being played right in front of your eyes.
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Shocker not everyone knows the ins and outs of this.You can't be serious
What did the Houthis fire at Israel? Widely reported as hypersonic which came to my incredulity (Russia, US, China, etc., - I know these nations have developed them with Russia the first, allegedly, to have them, but didn't think the Houthis had a stock available?). Wouldn't be too surprising if Iran did have some, though, would it? (If it came in exchange from Russian bartering for Iranian munitions which has been taking place). No idea, has to be said.
It's a stupid term because almost every ballistic missile by definition is hypersonic.
Iraqi SCUDS in 1991 were Hypersonic by that definition.
If we're going for the military specific term which is "air breathing scramjet engine cruise missile that travels mach 5 at sea level" nobody has that yet.
I thought it was common knowledge that Iran have hypersonic missiles. They don't just have the one 'Fattah' one either. They have 4 or 5 different types varying on distance.
Without exhausting the page, what do you mean? For the US, one assumes this is somewhat accurate - or is the metaphor wide of the mark? Concentric circles of defense, air or otherwise, is how the US reports its own capabilities (and this is quasi-official literature). Just curious. Never was one for military specifics beyond the generalities.
But surely there's a difference, unless the gaslighting by all the media is just mental, between what Russia has now and what it had in 1991? The time it takes for one of these new class of missiles to reach a target is far less than what it used to be. I mean, they can, apparently, hit London in about 15 minutes. This could be bullshit, but that's what the press briefings, western, too, have been.
Basically Hezbollah are one of a number of proxies (including Hamas, Houthis) that Iran have in the Middle East that basically act as a means of asserting their influence/deterrent without direct Iranian involvement.
Hezbollah has been one means of insurance policy/deterrent against Israel given they're heavily armed and sat on their border in Lebanon (firing rockets but not really trying to get into a war). Israel have basically gone after Hezbollah recently (hence attacks on Lebanon) because Netanyahu needs some political wins to show for his own survival and because Iran is unstable internally actually doesn't really want confrontation at this moment (so is calling their bluff by escalating) and there is a big void in the US elections. They have basically crippled Hezbollah by assassinating leaders and a lot of their command chain.
So basically Iran can't lose face with its proxies (who generally can't fight a direct with Israel) and needs to show they will support them, otherwise that whole system will collapse. Hence the missile barrage which still looks careful to avoid full escalation.
Yeah, they do. So does anyone with a intermediate/long range ballistic missile.
It's just terminology gaslighting.
Really hoping Iranian airspace isn’t closed like last time. My dad has a 6am (local time) flight out of Tehran to Doha. 
Russian ICBM's could reach Mach10+ about 5 decades ago.
It's Russian gaslighting and the media not understanding things well enough to call it out.
Even their air launched Kinzhals are just Iskander's put on a plane.
Really hoping Iranian airspace isn’t closed like last time. My dad has a 6am (local time) flight out of Tehran to Doha.
What about Chinese anti aircraft missile DF26?
Balls. Hopefully it’s a delay rather than cancellation.
I see what you did there!
Cheers!