The ballistic one.
Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic
- Thread starter Raoul
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The ballistic one.
Some of my friends are sure this is a start of WW3.
I've been having this feeling for a while.
Doubt it. Don't think Russia and China care all too much about the middle East for this to turn into a world war.
US joining in with Israel to go to war with Iran maybe. Even that I highly doubt.
Yeah, warning the US will have ensured the majority of missiles would be intercepted - or at a minimum it gave the Israelis time to evacuate properly. Feels more like missile diplomacy than an actual attack.
Everyone needs to chill and see what has actually happened. Were the Zionist military sites hit, or did the Iron Dome/Americans/Jordan shoot most of the missiles down?
This last month of Genocide Joe being in 'power' whilst mentally gone, will be a very dangerous month.
This last month of Genocide Joe being in 'power' whilst mentally gone, will be a very dangerous month.
Seems fake to me.
would have been all over Telegram and Israeli mainstream media had they managed to hit an army base.
From what we know, the missiles hit empty lands.
@Tibs as well, re: your post
Between who?
But yeah, rando trucker types in my office been on about the same thing all day.
Iran and USA I guess.Between who?
But yeah, rando trucker types in my office been on about the same thing all day.
Nah, we all said the same thing with Ukraine / Russia and that been going on for years now. Reckon WW3 will cyber based, the days of blasting a nuke off at someone are gone, we all know that ends in mutual destruction.
Sadly I have family living in Iran - my mom went over for her last trip there - she lives in London. I am worried of course as she is poorly and went despite our concerns. This is a real tipping point. Israel have the green light to do what they want to do. Iranian regime’s power in the region has been damaged and are in a lose lose situation. I honestly wish this ends this dictatorship but doubt it. Both sides are guilty of mass killings. I am just hoping that both sides deescalate like last time. Only innocent people suffer through all of this. Very sad the world we live in.
Missiles are en route to Israel from Iran.
Nah.
The twitter geolocation nerds have 'confirmed' Ort Tel Nof & Nevatim have either been hit or at least the video's of impacts are in their vicinity.
I've watched enough war footage these last few years that I was expecting to see some sort of secondary explosions or at least a bit of residual burning from all these impacts, if they had hit anything. Every single one I've seen however has dissipated in a puff of its own smoke.
You’d imagine it was because Israel are at least slightly more competent than Russia and have their munitions and planes in hardened hangars and bunkers
A completely morally bankrupt braindead country.
There will not be a full on war between Israel and Iran. That would drag the US in - no one wants that. It's Iran making a point to its proxies. Israel will likely respond by attacking a few military sites that Iran will be warned about through Russia.
"We too can play the symbolic gestures game!" It's all too predictable. The realities of geo-politics and how devoid it is of concern for civilians is quite depressing in truth.
For some reason, I can't embed it here, but on Twitter I saw a video of Bedouin people watching missiles fall on the ground some 500 meters from them. this would be the same area where the bases you've mentioned are located. This might have been the same ones, but Idk.
but again, if this had happened I'd have seen videos of it by now on Telegram.
here: Ynet article there are some videos of what had occured.
As it stands, almost all the powerful nations including Germany are on Israel's side. Russia and China will not plunge into this. So no two powerful sides to start a WW.
how can anyone with a shred of humanity celebrate airstrikes on civilians?
Just like clockwork.
Source?
We hear this every single time this happens. I wouldn't worry. Just easy to jump to the worst case scenario.
de-scalation through escalation. It looks like it worked.
That is truly where it gets insane.
If you shoot at me I'll grab a machine gun and spray at everyone around me?
Anyone who hasn't been living under a rock and/or read any papers in the last two weeks knows that Israel is behind the pagers attack and all that followed. Anyways:
For decades, there's been bad blood between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shia islamist resistance movement (I insist on this term, because "muh terrorist organization" will never cut it and is just plain idiotic) born directly in reaction to the 1982 Israel's invasion of Lebanon and then the South Lebanon Conflict (1985-2000)
Said invasion was carried out by Israel to destroy the PLO, the Palestinian independentist movement lead by Arafat who at the time took refuge in Lebanon. Hezbollah is one of the main reasons that forced Israel to cut its losses and pull out from Lebanon in 2000. It's also the one who pushed back the IDF's incursion in 2006, which many observers consider as a major set-back for Israel. The 2006 Lebanon War is one of the reasons why Nasrallah was considered a hero by many and the man to kill by Israel.
From the very beginning, Hezbollah aligned itself with the Islamic of Republic Iran (religious affinities playing a massive part) and copied its internal structure. It originally was a radical islamist movement, sponsored and backed by Iran, which somewhat mellowed over the years, went into a more "inclusive" approach and became a fully fledged political party, as well as a "state in the state" due to its military power and long reaching influence within the Lebanese society.
Like it or hate it, Hezbollah is the main political force that anyone dealing with Lebanon just can't dismiss. People might disagree, but that's how things actually are.
Its ties with Iran run deep as its military is backed by the latter who considers Hezbollah as its first line of defense and its prime projection of power against one of its two main opponents in the region, Israel. The second being Saudi Arabia.
Hezbollah is currently way more powerful and much better equipped and trained than the Lebanese Army. That's why the IDF, seeing the opportunity of destroying of a mortal enemy that's been a thorn in its side for decades and a chance to conquer a part of South Lebanon, has been concentrating its "strikes" on the movement instead of the regular Lebanese Army.
There's always been a sort of cold war and low rate exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah for decades. A kind of tit for tat, with tacite rules between the two, which amped up on both sides after 10/7. Hezbollah doing just enough to keep Israel worried about its northern border after its invasion of Gaza, but never crossing the line that would lead to an open war.
That changed once Netanyahu, after seeing that the US would ride along no matter what, decided that 10/7 was the chance to avenge the 2006 humiliation, get rid of Iran's first line of defense and prepare the "coup de grâce" to the enemy he's been dreaming of destroying for decades, as well as grabbing a juicy part of the land Israel always considered theirs, i.e. Southern Lebanon up to the Litani River.
Israel used its decades long deep infiltration of Hezbollah to its full effect, the pagers attack and Nasrallah's assassination would've never succeeded without it, to cripple Hezbollah's communications (the pagers attack) before launching an unprecedented airstrike campaign, civilians be damned. Now comes the logical follow-up which is the ground invasion.
Iran had no choice but to react to the absolute pummeling of its most important ally in the region and an essential part of its deterrence strategy built on proxy groups (and a shit ton of missiles), since it doesn't have any Air Force or Army to project in the region, in order to protect its own interests.
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I guess they are making sure Israel knows that targeting refineries would ignite the region and force the US into a position they certainly do not want to be in?
I hope...
This is where we fundamentally disagree.
Iran's positions itself in this way because it wants to. It could easily, quite easily, reverse its unsustainable foreign policy since the 80's and look for co-operation rather than a feud with other regional powers.
Even if you take away Israel's existence, Iran's foreign policy is to infiltrate and conduct asymmetric warfare on most of the Arab states.
Take for example Saudi Arabia - Things would look far far rosier if Iran don't keep backing and supporting the Houthi's.
Errr wants to, or Trump wanted when he cancelled all the unprecedented agreements that were achieved during Obama? Also, the best relationships between S.A. and Iran in ages thanks to China that stopped the almost a decade long in Yemen?
Surely is Iran? or certain factions of US and Israel that are not interested in an stable and cooperative Iran?
Would be surreal from afar, it's not as if the Arab and Muslim nations have done much to stop the genocide in Palestine...but imagine the likes of the Saudis actively taking sides after their refineries are blow up.
Perhaps, but its worth nothing that their proxies only exist because of Israel and the US. Hamas/Hezbollah were formed as a result of decades-long systemic oppression and occupation, whereas the Shia militias in Iraq rose to prominence after the US deemed it appropriate to decimate the country and leave huge power vacuums everywhere.
In a cruel twist of fate, I think Israel's existence and more specifically their batshit colonial ways as well as the US hegemonic recklessness in the region has only empowered the regime over the years. After the Iraq-Iran war the country was essentially on its knees.
What kind of Air Defence system Iranians have?
None of the neighbouring Arab regimes give a shite about the Palestinians really, save for perhaps Syria. Heck the Jordanians helped intercept Iranian missiles during the previous exchange (yet were seemingly content with watching their neighbours get butchered over the course of a year).
Saddam tried to call this bluff when he unprovokedly bombed Israel during the first gulf war, hoping to drag the Israelis into the conflict and putting those Arab nations in an uncomfortable position where they'd essentially be on the same side as the Israelis. The US and (surprise surprise) the Jordanians however talked the Israelis out of entering the war.
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The US would be forced to attack Iran. They would have to demonstrate to the other Arab nations that they are serious about their commitment to normalisation and cooperation in the region, and act as detterent against Iran. Which in turn would force the Sunni states into the uncomfortable position of considering entering the war on a side that includes Israel.
That is quite the threat.
The War is still ongoing.
Regarding the "unprecedented agreements"
Sorry but, this might not be a popular opinion on here but that deal was another showcase of weak Western geopolitics in the past two decades.
Sanction relief in exchange for a vague pause on "non civilian application" of nuclear development that still allowed weapons grade processing to be done, just at a much slower rate, in Natanz. Centrifuges were still allowed, just again, at a delayed timeline.
There were no provisions for the huge ballistic missile inventory Iran has, the proxies running wild in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon, and nothing at all to do with unfettered IRGC operations across the entire middle east.
Ultimately, it was a terribly one sided deal.
"Slow down your nuclear weapons development and we'll lift all related sanctions."