Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

that Qatar boycott thread must look like a gold mine now given what's being accepted these days without anyone giving a feck about civilians most basic right, to exist.

not to mention Israeli clubs casually participating in European cups and their NT freely playing their matches while the same "horrified" crowd who didn't have stomach for watching 2022 World Cup now watch those tournaments without a fuss, waiting for the next tournament in ME so they can pretend to be horrified again.

only in times like these you realize how fake everything is.
 
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AfonsoAlves said:
It will.

THAAD increases ABM specific platforms in Israel by 50-100%. There's only two known Arrow 3 batteries, each capable of firing 24 missiles, and a few more Arrow-2 platforms which are less effective.

THAAD has an absurd success rate as well in testing, passing every intercept test for the past 20 years.
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That was the fundamental point. The attack being planned on Iran will elicit a further response from Tehran, which is why the Israelis likely requested it.
 
They allowed journalists into the hospital they threatened to bomb yesterday, absurd this needed to be done but this is the new reality because of that sick entity.



Today I visited the Sahel hospital in southern Beirut the morning after Israel claimed - without evidence - that hundreds of billions of dollars in gold and cash were stored in the basement and used to fund Hezbollah. I had unrestricted access to all areas, including the basement and all I found were the normal things found in any hospital, in any country across the world. The hospital director believes it will be bombed by Israel, repeating a pattern seen in Gaza, with attempts to link the hospital to Hezbollah a smokescreen to justify an attack. We had to leave the hospital with drones flying overhead with the potential for Israel to strike at any moment. Lebanon’s health ministry has called on the international community to speak out and break its silence on Israel’s war crimes with around 150 health workers killed in Israeli attacks. At least four people including a child were killed as Israel bombed the vicinity of the Rafik Hariri Hospital on Monday night while 14 people were killed in Jnah, wiping out two families.With a ceasefire seemingly out of reach, Israel’s bombing continues with no end in sight.
 
Bole Top said:
that Qatar boycott thread must look like a gold mine now given what's being accepted these days without anyone giving a feck about civilians most basic right, to exist.

not to mention Israeli clubs casually participating in European cups and their NT freely playing their matches while the same "horrified" crowd who didn't have stomach for watching 2022 World Cup now watch those tournaments without a fuss, waiting for the next tournament in ME so they can pretend to be horrified again.

only in times like these you realize how fake everything is.
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It was about racism for the majority of people who objected to that. Few actually care about human rights but even those will likely have to perform mental gymnastics to conclude that "everything is on a scale and what they do is worse than we do".
 
Idxomer said:
It was about racism for the majority of people who objected to that. Few actually care about human rights but even those will likely have to perform mental gymnastics to conclude that "everything is on a scale and what they do is worse than we do".
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Of course it was. I want to see the same energy at the next world cup if Trump is elected, and see how football fans reconcile visiting a nation with a racist, misogynistic fascist at the helm, not to mention one that is actively sponsoring a genocide.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
That is not his job, nor his responsibility, in fact it's his exact job to not do that.

If you want to maximise good based on your own worldview, Intelligence officer isn't the career for you.

For every person who feels empowered to leak based on his judgement that ended up being right, there is a person who feels empowered based on flawed judgement.

The actual solution is to empower neither.

For every officer who leaks Israel's plan to strike a country, there is an officer who leaks the undercover identities of CIA assets in China resulting in the execution of dozens.
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This is just a restatement of your previous post and I still find your assessment unsatisfactory. Of course the solution from the security state's point of view is to treat each case equally. Thankfully I am not a member of the security state and can therefore use a different rubric. Some hypothetical Hamas commander revealing to the world plans for Oct 7th would be a pariah and a traitor; regardless I would still praise them should they have done it. "It's not your job" just doesn't cut it, neither does "just resign".
 
That_Bloke said:
We'll see how it fares in real life situation, a wave of hundreds if not thousands of missiles, without any kind of warning.

I personally hope that it doesn't come to this point.
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You both underestimate this system and overestimate Iran's missile capabilities. Israel's Arrow is an effective defence on its own, alongside the rest of the Israeli missile defence and the US's Army and Navy systems Iran doesn't have enough launchers to overwhelm it. Both sides know that. Simple ground launched ballistic missiles are no longer effective against a technologically advanced adversary.

The tactic used to be to get short range missiles to their Allies located nearer Israel but Israel is busy dismantling that option. Hard to see what Iran can do from here. They've been badly embarrassed over the past year on the military front.
 
11101 said:
Hard to see what Iran can do from here. They've been badly embarrassed over the past year on the military front.
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They don't have many options at this point. Their proxies around Israel are all on the ropes, most of their leaders killed, and the C2 infrastructure and weapons completely demolished. When the Israelis respond to the last Iranian ballistic missile attack on 1 Oct, Khamanei won't have any realistic arrows left in his quiver, especially knowing that the US has completely underwritten Israelis power.
 
Raoul said:
They don't have many options at this point. Their proxies around Israel are all on the ropes, most of their leaders killed, and the C2 infrastructure and weapons completely demolished. When the Israelis respond to the last Iranian ballistic missile attack on 1 Oct, Khamanei won't have any realistic arrows left in his quiver, especially knowing that the US has completely underwritten Israelis power.
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They could still potentially put on fire lots of oil in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia which could cripple the world economy. But probably as last option.

Still think that their best way out of this is a protection alliance with Russia (or even China, in return of lots of oils) with them sending a few nukes to Iran. And then hurrying to make their own nukes, which shouldn’t take that long at this stage. Not sure Putin won’t fancy this idea, be it to position Russia much stronger there or to use it as a card against West for the Ukraine war. China probably won’t want to have anything with that, it is outside of their region of interest.
 
Bole Top said:
that Qatar boycott thread must look like a gold mine now given what's being accepted these days without anyone giving a feck about civilians most basic right, to exist.

not to mention Israeli clubs casually participating in European cups and their NT freely playing their matches while the same "horrified" crowd who didn't have stomach for watching 2022 World Cup now watch those tournaments without a fuss, waiting for the next tournament in ME so they can pretend to be horrified again.

only in times like these you realize how fake everything is.
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The classic 'what aboutism' argument. Wonder if a thread will even be made asking to boycott the world cup in the US. You can bet your life the same people that were in the Qatar thread talking about what aboutism won't even enter that thread.

It's called selective outrage.
 
Raoul said:
They don't have many options at this point. Their proxies around Israel are all on the ropes, most of their leaders killed, and the C2 infrastructure and weapons completely demolished. When the Israelis respond to the last Iranian ballistic missile attack on 1 Oct, Khamanei won't have any realistic arrows left in his quiver, especially knowing that the US has completely underwritten Israelis power.
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The US will be pushing hard for restraint from Israel in the reply, whilst Iran cant realistically retaliate and Netanyahu would love nothing more than to go for Iran's nuclear dreams, any failure there would embolden Iran's hardliners to go even harder for their own bomb. I think the tactic behind sending those B2s the other day was to remind Iran they can drop heavy ordnance anywhere they might choose to hide their enrichment facilities.

There is a path to peace and it involves the US (and probably China in the background) telling them both to reign it in.
 
11101 said:
The US will be pushing hard for restraint from Israel in the reply, whilst Iran cant realistically retaliate and Netanyahu would love nothing more than to go for Iran's nuclear dreams, any failure there would embolden Iran's hardliners to go even harder for their own bomb. I think the tactic behind sending those B2s the other day was to remind Iran they can drop heavy ordnance anywhere they might choose to hide their enrichment facilities.

There is a path to peace and it involves the US (and probably China in the background) telling them both to reign it in.
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Remind me why Iran had been brought in the position that has to be reigned in?
 
11101 said:
The US will be pushing hard for restraint from Israel in the reply, whilst Iran cant realistically retaliate and Netanyahu would love nothing more than to go for Iran's nuclear dreams, any failure there would embolden Iran's hardliners to go even harder for their own bomb. I think the tactic behind sending those B2s the other day was to remind Iran they can drop heavy ordnance anywhere they might choose to hide their enrichment facilities.

There is a path to peace and it involves the US (and probably China in the background) telling them both to reign it in.
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The issue is that Biden is pretty much a lame duck at this point, which is not lost on Netanyahu, who knows he can more or less do what he wants. That will be the case even more if Trump wins in 2 weeks, since the guardrails will be completely removed.
 
Raoul said:
The issue is that Biden is pretty much a lame duck at this point, which is not lost on Netanyahu, who knows he can more or less do what he wants. That will be the case even more if Trump wins in 2 weeks, since the guardrails will be completely removed.
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I guess he's the guy who scrapped the nuclear deal and let this situation spiral so who knows what he will do. I think much more domestic focus than before.
 
Putting ethics aside for a second, you have to wonder what the operational thinking of hezbollah is at the moment with regards to their longer range missiles. Someone paying more attention may be able to correct me but it certainly seems they’re in a quasi existential battle for survival now.

So are they actually not? And they’re saving them for if they are being driven back from south Lebanon?
Have a large number of them been destroyed?
Can they operate them without Iranian operatives? If so, are the Iranians keeping them in reserve for if Israel’s response is too large to ignore?
 
africanspur said:
Putting ethics aside for a second, you have to wonder what the operational thinking of hezbollah is at the moment with regards to their longer range missiles. Someone paying more attention may be able to correct me but it certainly seems they’re in a quasi existential battle for survival now.

So are they actually not? And they’re saving them for if they are being driven back from south Lebanon?
Have a large number of them been destroyed?
Can they operate them without Iranian operatives? If so, are the Iranians keeping them in reserve for if Israel’s response is too large to ignore?
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Saw one analyst saying that Iran might be veto-ing Hezbollah to not use its large missile arsenal in order to avoid a broader war.
 
africanspur said:
Putting ethics aside for a second, you have to wonder what the operational thinking of hezbollah is at the moment with regards to their longer range missiles. Someone paying more attention may be able to correct me but it certainly seems they’re in a quasi existential battle for survival now.

So are they actually not? And they’re saving them for if they are being driven back from south Lebanon?
Have a large number of them been destroyed?
Can they operate them without Iranian operatives? If so, are the Iranians keeping them in reserve for if Israel’s response is too large to ignore?
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I suppose one reason may be because Hezbollah doesn't have any leadership at the moment, and as such, lack a coherent strategic plan on what to do. We are in a truly uncharted territory at the moment in the sense that this is the first time in 40 years that Hezbollah are on the ropes; especially given that Tehran are themselves expecting a massive attack any day, there simply isn't a plan on what to do next in lieu of constant Israeli attacks.
 
africanspur said:
Putting ethics aside for a second, you have to wonder what the operational thinking of hezbollah is at the moment with regards to their longer range missiles. Someone paying more attention may be able to correct me but it certainly seems they’re in a quasi existential battle for survival now.

So are they actually not? And they’re saving them for if they are being driven back from south Lebanon?
Have a large number of them been destroyed?
Can they operate them without Iranian operatives? If so, are the Iranians keeping them in reserve for if Israel’s response is too large to ignore?
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Western intelligence estimated half their missile arsenal had been destroyed a few weeks ago. Israel reckons theyve now lost two thirds. Most of their C4 infrastructure is gone. They're now incapable of operating anywhere near Israel's borders and are very limited further inland. Larger missiles require more effort to launch and are therefore easier to spot before they launch.

Any kind of coordinated attack by Hezbollah looks almost impossible. Same goes for Hamas whilst the Houthis are too far away to do any real damage, and they're preoccupied with shipping. Nobody is able to go toe to toe with Israel in conventional warfare.
 


This is the Lebanese army which they repeatedly said they aren't at war with but have been targeting their personnel since the start of their bombing.
 
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-and-saudi-arabia-hold-joint-naval-exercise-in-sea-of-oman/

Saudi Arabia held military exercises with Iran and other countries recently in the Sea of Oman, the Saudi defense ministry spokesman said in a statement to AFP Wednesday.


The two Middle East rivals, which have long backed opposing sides in conflict zones across the region, severed diplomatic ties in 2016. However, Shiite Muslim-dominated Iran and Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia resumed relations last year under a surprise China-brokered deal, even as Riyadh appeared poised to sign a normalization deal with Tehran’s arch-foe, Israel.
 
berbatrick said:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-and-saudi-arabia-hold-joint-naval-exercise-in-sea-of-oman/

Saudi Arabia held military exercises with Iran and other countries recently in the Sea of Oman, the Saudi defense ministry spokesman said in a statement to AFP Wednesday.


The two Middle East rivals, which have long backed opposing sides in conflict zones across the region, severed diplomatic ties in 2016. However, Shiite Muslim-dominated Iran and Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia resumed relations last year under a surprise China-brokered deal, even as Riyadh appeared poised to sign a normalization deal with Tehran’s arch-foe, Israel.
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Wouldn't it be nice to have an harmonic middle east region, Israel included...

Shouldn't be that difficult FFS
 
4bars said:
Wouldn't it be nice to have an harmonic middle east region, Israel included...

Shouldn't be that difficult FFS
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One thing is peace between the countries in the region, sure that would be amazing. But there is also lots of oppression and corruption in many of these countries. Dictators, militant groups, outside influence and so on making it hard for the normal people to prosper.
 
The Houthis, which began their attacks late last year over the Gaza war, eventually began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their strikes, said a person familiar with the matter and two European defense officials. The data was passed through members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen, one of the people said.
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YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
One thing is peace between the countries in the region, sure that would be amazing. But there is also lots of oppression and corruption in many of these countries. Dictators, militant groups, outside influence and so on making it hard for the normal people to prosper.
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Absolutely, but you have to start somewhere and stop bombing the shit out of the population is. Iran and Saudi Arabia with joint military exercises defuses tensions, not to tell I imagine that tones downs the official anti sunni and anti shiite rhetoric from their governments that might help with the tribal issues. Outside influence hardly depends on them. And dictators...democracy is not for every country/society. At least it needs a transition. And peace and specially prosperity can help
 
4bars said:
Absolutely, but you have to start somewhere and stop bombing the shit out of the population is. Iran and Saudi Arabia with joint military exercises defuses tensions, not to tell I imagine that tones downs the official anti sunni and anti shiite rhetoric from their governments that might help with the tribal issues. Outside influence hardly depends on them. And dictators...democracy is not for every country/society. At least it needs a transition. And peace and specially prosperity can help
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I find this statement incredibly sad. If the alternative to democracy was a benevolent leader figure i would agree, but thats not how i view the likes of Assad, Taleban, IRGC, Hezbollah (huge influence). I think the people of these countries have shown they want a different direction for their countries.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
I find this statement incredibly sad. If the alternative to democracy was a benevolent leader figure i would agree, but thats not how i view the likes of Assad, Taleban, IRGC, Hezbollah (huge influence). I think the people of these countries have shown they want a different direction for their countries.
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The entire region deserves to be free of these despots, but the Western would would do well not to prop up their own despotic puppets in Egypt, Jordan as well as their out of control rabid genocidal colony in Israel.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
I find this statement incredibly sad. If the alternative to democracy was a benevolent leader figure i would agree, but thats not how i view the likes of Assad, Taleban, IRGC, Hezbollah (huge influence). I think the people of these countries have shown they want a different direction for their countries.
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I agree with @4bars

Many of the middle eastern countries simply are not ready or do not want a democracy. Afghanistan will not be a democracy in our lifetimes. It isn't even a real dictatorship with central control - Taliban cede domestic affairs to Pashtun tribal leaders in the Southern Afghan provinces.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
I agree with @4bars

Many of the middle eastern countries simply are not ready or do not want a democracy. Afghanistan will not be a democracy in our lifetimes. It isn't even a real dictatorship with central control - Taliban cede domestic affairs to Pashtun tribal leaders in the Southern Afghan provinces.
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Iran was pretty much a bonafide democracy until the US and UK deemed it necessary to stage a coup there to enforce regional interests, paving the way for the eventual Islamic Revolution.
 
Kaos said:
The entire region deserves to be free of these despots, but the Western would would do well not to prop up their own despotic puppets in Egypt, Jordan as well as their out of control rabid genocidal colony in Israel.
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I 100% agree, i don't want the west to meddle in the middle east at all.
 
Kaos said:
Iran was pretty much a bonafide democracy until the US and UK deemed it necessary to stage a coup there to enforce regional interests, paving the way for the eventual Islamic Revolution.
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I mean, I don't disagree at all, Iran was not on my list of "places which are not ready for democracy."

Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan are the obvious ones, Saudi Arabia too but for very different reasons:

Egypt is an interesting one. The last time they actually had proper and fair elections, they elected a not-so democratic group of people.
 
YouOnlyLiveTwice said:
I find this statement incredibly sad. If the alternative to democracy was a benevolent leader figure i would agree, but thats not how i view the likes of Assad, Taleban, IRGC, Hezbollah (huge influence). I think the people of these countries have shown they want a different direction for their countries.
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I find it sad too. And no, people in this countries have not shown it, a decent chunk sure and in the big cities, but many more they simply don't want to suffer certain regimes or are neutral because they are unafffected. But that is different to want or even understand the concept of democracy as we do as westerners. They have a complete different concept of organization, tribalistic, religious and even descentralized in some cases.

And being sad, which I agree, doesn't make it not true. Hopefully one day they will reach a form of government that works for them. Not that certain democracies works super great lately by the way
 
4bars said:
I find it sad too. And no, people in this countries have not shown it, a decent chunk sure and in the big cities, but many more they simply don't want to suffer certain regimes or are neutral because they are unafffected. But that is different to want or even understand the concept of democracy as we do as westerners. They have a complete different concept of organization, tribalistic, religious and even descentralized in some cases.

And being sad, which I agree, doesn't make it not true. Hopefully one day they will reach a form of government that works for them. Not that certain democracies works super great lately by the way
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Orientalism 101.
 
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