Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully and stay on topic

[11101]

The THAAD system has zero offensive capabilities and is strictly used for defensive purposes.

It would be in any other circumstances little more than a PR stunt, as it will be overwhelmed if the Iranians decide to go for a massive counter-retaliation after the incoming Israeli "reprisal".

The real deterrence, or tripwire depending on how you look at it, is that this air-defense system is exclusively operated by members of the US military forces. So if the Iranians wound or kill american military personel, even by accident, in an eventual retaliatory strike, it would give the US a convenient excuse casus belli to fully engage in the war Netanyahu and so many US neo-cons (we have quite a few in this very forum), including the likes of Blinken, Hochstein, McGurk and most likely Biden, as well as Graham, Bolton and so many other republican loonies who have been jerking off to for decades.

That's what this THAAD deployment is all about.

But it sounds a bit evil so it must be there to do evil things. They have had these systems in Israel in the past. I don't know if they currently have any beyond this announcement but there is almost zero chance of Iran's rudimentary missiles getting anywhere near them. As crazy as they are i think they know better.

Regardless, the end game for this conflict is likely a campaign of limited strikes against Iran. They and their allies have been embarrassed. Hamas is all but gone, Hezbollah has been dismantled, Houthis are ineffective, and Iran themselves can't get close to Israel whilst Israel can strike at will. I think their next step will be to eliminate Iran's nuclear sites and that's what the B2s the other night were there to threaten.

 

[RedSky]

Great! He/she can join their bosses fpr war crimes and funding a genocide

I know why you say it and i understand, but this evil needa to be fought with any means

Agreed. They all need to be locked up (including anyone involved in the UK and Europe as far as i'm concerned).

I applaud the person for having the guts to do it knowing their life if caught would effectively be over but by doing so has probably just saved the lives of countless innocent civilians that both Israel and America (and most of Europe) don't give a flying feck about. All that is happening is escalation, escalation into a broader, larger war with more suffering and death. What should be happening is deescalation by the withdrawl of support of a war mongering terrorist state and trying to calm things down in the region but the exact opposite is happening.

All of which has a knock on effect with Ukraine/Russia war too. More resources being sent to Israel to murder countless civilians when they could be being used to protect Ukraine. I don't think people realise how dangerous all of this really is on a global scale. Deescalation and peace is vital before another conflict erupts elsewhere.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Agreed. They all need to be locked up (including anyone involved in the UK and Europe as far as i'm concerned).

I applaud the person for having the guts to do it knowing their life if caught would effectively be over but by doing so has probably just saved the lives of countless innocent civilians that both Israel and America (and most of Europe) don't give a flying feck about. All that is happening is escalation, escalation into a broader, larger war with more suffering and death. What should be happening is deescalation by the withdrawl of support of a war mongering terrorist state and trying to calm things down in the region but the exact opposite is happening.

All of which has a knock on effect with Ukraine/Russia war too. More resources being sent to Israel to murder countless civilians when they could be being used to protect Ukraine. I don't think people realise how dangerous all of this really is on a global scale. Deescalation and peace is vital before another conflict erupts elsewhere.

I have the complete opposite view. I think this person is a coward.

Becoming a senior intelligence officer (an analyst wouldn't have clearance to the comprehensive operational plans), means you surrender your own moral and political judgement on the matter at hand. The only line is when it is directed at your own people (which is why I personally give someone like Snowden a bit of a pass, at least far more than most. Plus he wasn't an Intelligence officer).

It doesn't matter if you completely disagree on a values level or a moral level with regards to what you are working on. You work as a military intelligence officer because you decide to serve your country, and accept that all political, geopolitical and moral decisions are well above your pay grade and that you must trust the decisions made above you, regardless of how you personally feel about it.

You can't accept this? The choices are pretty simple.

1) Don't become an intelligence officer. It isn't something you fall into by accident, you know the damn rules and how you are meant to operate professionally.

2) If you find out later on it isn't for you, and you can't take it anymore? Get dishonourably discharged. Fake a mental breakdown (or have a real one), or whatever. There's a lot of sneaky ways to get out of this.

3) Wait until your contract is over, then get honourably discharged.

1) and 3) are the preferred options.

What this person did is cowardice. He/She should be punished by the full extent of the law and if it were up to me, for sedition.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

I have the complete opposite view. I think this person is a coward.

Becoming a senior intelligence officer (an analyst wouldn't have clearance to the comprehensive operational plans), means you surrender your own moral and political judgement on the matter at hand. The only line is when it is directed at your own people (which is why I personally give someone like Snowden a bit of a pass, at least far more than most. Plus he wasn't an Intelligence officer).

It doesn't matter if you completely disagree on a values level or a moral level with regards to what you are working on. You work as a military intelligence officer because you decide to serve your country, and accept that all political, geopolitical and moral decisions are well above your pay grade and that you must trust the decisions made above you, regardless of how you personally feel about it.

You can't accept this? The choices are pretty simple.

1) Don't become an intelligence officer. It isn't something you fall into by accident, you know the damn rules and how you are meant to operate professionally.

2) If you find out later on it isn't for you, and you can't take it anymore? Get dishonourably discharged. Fake a mental breakdown (or have a real one), or whatever. There's a lot of sneaky ways to get out of this.

3) Wait until your contract is over, then get honourably discharged.

1) and 3) are the preferred options.

What this person did is cowardice. He/She should be punished by the full extent of the law and if it were up to me, for sedition.

You could go a long line to excusing many war crimes like this. I mean, many were just following the orders.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

You could go a long line to excusing many war crimes like this. I mean, many were just following the orders.

Well no.

Every person who follows war crimes had the option of dishonourable discharge.

If you feel that strongly against an order, just leave.

There's also a factor in this that actual enlisted men do not usually get charged with war crimes. The commanding officers of the unit do.

People are aware that sometimes enlisted lose their capacity/agency when in a group like this, hence the pressure is put on the commanding officer.

Either way though, comparing an enlisted soldier peer pressured into doing war crimes with an intelligence officer who has a very different mandate isn't a good comparison.

 

[Raoul]

The THAAD system has zero offensive capabilities and is strictly used for defensive purposes.

It would be in any other circumstances little more than a PR stunt, as it will be overwhelmed if the Iranians decide to go for a massive counter-retaliation after the incoming Israeli "reprisal".

The real deterrence, or tripwire depending on how you look at it, is that this air-defense system is exclusively operated by members of the US military forces. So if the Iranians wound or kill american military personel, even by accident, in an eventual retaliatory strike, it would give the US a convenient excuse casus belli to fully engage in the war Netanyahu and so many US neo-cons (we have quite a few in this very forum), including the likes of Blinken, Hochstein, McGurk and most likely Biden, as well as Graham, Bolton and so many other republican loonies who have been jerking off to for decades.

That's what this THAAD deployment is all about.

Its actually about protecting Israel from Iran's next response, because the Israeli attack is likely to be so unprecedented that Iran will be forced to either formally declare war on Israel or else launch a massive counterattack that the current Israeli air defense configuration cannot defend because it is not set up to deal with a large amount of ballistic missiles. That's where THAAD comes into the picture. It also gives Biden some degree of political leverage that Netanyahu doesn't attempt to go after non-military or nuclear targets in population centers, in exchange for Biden allowing THAAD to be positioned in Israel.

 

[RedSky]

I have the complete opposite view. I think this person is a coward.

Becoming a senior intelligence officer (an analyst wouldn't have clearance to the comprehensive operational plans), means you surrender your own moral and political judgement on the matter at hand. The only line is when it is directed at your own people (which is why I personally give someone like Snowden a bit of a pass, at least far more than most. Plus he wasn't an Intelligence officer).

It doesn't matter if you completely disagree on a values level or a moral level with regards to what you are working on. You work as a military intelligence officer because you decide to serve your country, and accept that all political, geopolitical and moral decisions are well above your pay grade and that you must trust the decisions made above you, regardless of how you personally feel about it.

You can't accept this? The choices are pretty simple.

1) Don't become an intelligence officer. It isn't something you fall into by accident, you know the damn rules and how you are meant to operate professionally.

2) If you find out later on it isn't for you, and you can't take it anymore? Get dishonourably discharged. Fake a mental breakdown (or have a real one), or whatever. There's a lot of sneaky ways to get out of this.

3) Wait until your contract is over, then get honourably discharged.

1) and 3) are the preferred options.

What this person did is cowardice. He/She should be punished by the full extent of the law and if it were up to me, for sedition.

Well of course you'd disagree. I fundementally with all of my heart completely disagree with you. The person in question has saved countless lives and delayed a possible attack that still may be prevented through dialogue. Possibly delaying the inevitable but at least the innocent civilians of Iran can breath a sigh of relief that their houses, schools, nurseries and hospitals won't be destroyed just yet. They'll be caught and you can fist pump as another life is ruined.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Well of course you'd disagree. I fundementally with all of my heart completely disagree with you. The person in question has saved countless lives and delayed a possible attack that still may be prevented through dialogue. Possibly delaying the inevitable but at least the innocent civilians of Iran can breath a sigh of relief that their houses, schools, nurseries and hospitals won't be destroyed just yet. They'll be caught and you can fist pump as another life is ruined.

Yes, and what happens when the next leak or the next degree of unprofessionalism results in lives lost. What happens when the next leak makes its way to Russia/China's hands and people end up being caught and executed. No doubt you'll say, "He knew the risks by being there." This is why unfettered moral judgement at the intelligence level is a huge problem. This time, morally, this officer was "right." What happens if next time he wasn't? You cannot operate on these things on an ad-hoc basis.

I'm not fist pumping that another life is ruined. I won't be happy if he goes away forever. He has undermined the trust and professionalism of his profession and that cannot be taken back; this wasn't some kid leaking tank specs on WarThunder forums because he is an idiot, this was calculated and he has undermined the country that he has swore and pledged to serve.

I think the problem with the view you have on this is that you cheer when the leak goes with your values and interests, but when it doesn't and all hell breaks loose, you're left wondering, "But how could this have happened?"

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Yes, and what happens when the next leak or the next degree of unprofessionalism results in lives lost. What happens when the next leak makes its way to Russia/China's hands and people end up being caught and executed. No doubt you'll say, "He knew the risks by being there." This is why unfettered moral judgement at the intelligence level is a huge problem. This time, morally, this officer was "right." What happens if next time he wasn't? You cannot operate on these things on an ad-hoc basis.

I'm not fist pumping that another life is ruined. I won't be happy if he goes away forever. He has undermined the trust and professionalism of his profession and that cannot be taken back; this wasn't some kid leaking tank specs on WarThunder forums because he is an idiot, this was calculated and he has undermined the country that he has swore and pledged to serve.

I think the problem with the view you have on this is that you cheer when the leak goes with your values and interests, but when it doesn't and all hell breaks loose, you're left wondering, "But how could this have happened?"

This is why it's possible to judge on a case by case basis. A bloke sneaking out the enigma key list undermines the German security state and from their point of view it is essential he be punished. That doesn't make me any less free to judge his actions favourably, nor does it imply that the chap's a coward for not simply resigning. He may simply be leveraging his position to maximise good as he sees it.

The security state might not find a difference between Enigma Man and Harold Cole, say, revealing members of the French Resistance to the Gestapo, but I can see quite a clear one.

 

[Maticmaker]

Sadly, I'm also sure we won't. So does that then make us collectively at fault too?

Yes, it does, because sadly in the age where World wide nuclear destruction is only one false move, one mistake away, battles and wars of a conventional type will continue to be the way all of us settle our differences, or try to do!

In the modern era terrorism can no longer be truly defeated, nor can it 'force the issue', nor bring lasting peace; it only leads to genocide. Hence 'ethnic cleansing' becomes the real 'end game' but which in order to prevent (in terms of the major players) in reality it becomes the annihilation of such 'proxies,' by the larger power blocks.

With the build up of massive trading blocks, comes the development of massive powerful, almost 'omnipotent' entities which as the world battles to control climate change does not bode well for peace.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

This is why it's possible to judge on a case by case basis. A bloke sneaking out the enigma key list undermines the German security state and from their point of view it is essential he be punished. That doesn't make me any less free to judge his actions favourably, nor does it imply that the chap's a coward for not simply resigning. He may simply be leveraging his position to maximise good as he sees it.

The security state might not find a difference between Enigma Man and Harold Cole, say, revealing members of the French Resistance to the Gestapo, but I can see quite a clear one.

That is not his job, nor his responsibility, in fact it's his exact job to not do that.

If you want to maximise good based on your own worldview, Intelligence officer isn't the career for you.

For every person who feels empowered to leak based on his judgement that ended up being right, there is a person who feels empowered based on flawed judgement.

The actual solution is to empower neither.

For every officer who leaks Israel's plan to strike a country, there is an officer who leaks the undercover identities of CIA assets in China resulting in the execution of dozens.

 

[4bars]

That is not his job, nor his responsibility, in fact it's his exact job to not do that.

If you want to maximise good based on your own worldview, Intelligence officer isn't the career for you.

For every person who feels empowered to leak based on his judgement that ended up being right, there is a person who feels empowered based on flawed judgement.

The actual solution is to empower neither.

For every officer who leaks Israel's plan to strike a country, there is an officer who leaks the undercover identities of CIA assets in China resulting in the execution of dozens.

You have that mindset because your work life mentality is set that way and is the structure that make sense to you and it goes against your code. You lose this and anything in your professional life lose the sense of existance so you need to defend it

I am not saying that is this case, but in history, there are many men/women that did the right think betraying the military that they were serving. Often times, not doing anything (dishonorable discharge) is the wrong thing

 

[Raven]

Wow. This comes across as utterly psychotic.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

You have that mindset because your work life mentality is set that way and is the structure that make sense to you and it goes against your code. You lose this and anything in your professional life lose the sense of existance so you need to defend it

I am not saying that is this case, but in history, there are many men/women that did the right think betraying the military that they were serving. Often times, not doing anything (dishonorable discharge) is the wrong thing

I'm not saying all cases of whistleblowing is bad.

Internal or domestic conduct should, and is, encouraged (though this is controversial as its not always the base based on branch or departmental culture) to be whistleblown.

People who leaked Abu Ghraib, My Lai, etc are well within their rights to do so and should be encouraged. Internal and domestic misconduct should always be accounted for.

This is not that. This is the equivalent of leaking to the Viet Cong that US soldiers were planning to go to My Lai. Or telling Iraqi insurgents where the locations of all the US operations centres are.

 

[africanspur]

I'm not saying all cases of whistleblowing is bad.

Internal or domestic conduct should, and is, encouraged (though this is controversial as its not always the base based on branch or departmental culture) to be whistleblown.

People who leaked Abu Ghraib, My Lai, etc are well within their rights to do so and should be encouraged. Internal and domestic misconduct should always be accounted for.

This is not that. This is the equivalent of leaking to the Viet Cong that US soldiers were planning to go to My Lai. Or telling Iraqi insurgents where the locations of all the US operations centres are.

Is this not the point though? That others see this as equivalent to the examples you gave whereas you don’t?

Also I’m not sure if I’m looking at the wrong thing (very likely) but it barely seems to give any actual information that would be actually helpful in stopping the attack (if Iran could, which it almost certainly can’t).

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Is this not the point though? That others see this as equivalent to the examples you gave whereas you don’t?

Also I’m not sure if I’m looking at the wrong thing (very likely) but it barely seems to give any actual information that would be actually helpful in stopping the attack (if Iran could, which it almost certainly can’t).

How is US gathering information on Israel's plans (with possible US support) on attacking Iran internal/domestic? If it was, it wouldn't even fall under the purview of Military Intelligence. MI handles strategic/operational.

Regarding the last bolded, that's totally irrelevant. If someone leaked even the logistics plans for how a C-5 Galaxy manages to transport a mobile Burger King from Houston to NSA Bahrain, that person should be locked up. It's the principle of it.

 

[11101]

Its actually about protecting Israel from Iran's next response, because the Israeli attack is likely to be so unprecedented that Iran will be forced to either formally declare war on Israel or else launch a massive counterattack that the current Israeli air defense configuration cannot defend because it is not set up to deal with a large amount of ballistic missiles. That's where THAAD comes into the picture. It also gives Biden some degree of political leverage that Netanyahu doesn't attempt to go after non-military or nuclear targets in population centers, in exchange for Biden allowing THAAD to be positioned in Israel.

It's also live fire testing. That's half the reason these systems get sent to far flung corners of the world. Interoperability and testing.

 

[africanspur]

How is US gathering information on Israel's plans (with possible US support) on attacking Iran internal/domestic? If it was, it wouldn't even fall under the purview of Military Intelligence. MI handles strategic/operational.

Regarding the last bolded, that's totally irrelevant. If someone leaked even the logistics plans for how a C-5 Galaxy manages to transport a mobile Burger King from Houston to NSA Bahrain, that person should be locked up. It's the principle of it.

When you said domestic, I assumed you meant within the continental USA and that the examples you gave were another point.

 

[Idxomer]

The scumbags are threatening to bomb a hospital in Lebanon.

 

[berbatrick]

 

[AfonsoAlves]

When you said domestic, I assumed you meant within the continental USA and that the examples you gave were another point.

No, when I said internal/domestic, I mean things that occur within either

a) Continental USA / Internal country of whichever country the Intelligence Officer was part of. An example of this would be Edward Snowden leaking the fact that US was spying on it's internal citizens without much need for any court orders or due process.

b) Occur within the realm of conduct of internal affairs, for example the people who tipped off Amnesty/Media around Abu Ghraib and the torture of prisoners there.


What is an entirely different real is operational, tactical and strategic intelligence that doesn't fall under either of those two. These are leaks that are highly unprofessional. An example would be Chelsea Manning, who leaked footage, videos, diplomatic cables, operational documents to Wikileaks. None of these are pertaining to internal conduct, none of these are about actions that occur within the United States itself. She was an intelligence analyst who broke her duty and whistleblew due to geopolitical differences in opinion.

The only reason Chelsea Manning was given leeway by Obama and gathered a lot of sympathy in the DoD itself is because she shouldn't have been in Iraq in the first place. The DoD acknowledged that she had already shown signs of mental instability, and was a victim of bullying due to her trans identity. Her unit had already documented internal discussions whether she was fit for deployment. But she herself admitted that she leaked because of ideological reasons, that "she was trying to make the world a better place."

When it was proven that her leaks had cost the lives of servicemen in Iraq and Afghanistan, she reportedly broke down in tears because she had no idea of the implications that her leaks caused. The thing is, she wasn't even an officer, just an analyst. Imagine what someone with a much higher security clearance and bigger picture could have done under these circumstances.

This is why leaks, no matter "for the greater good" should not be tolerated. Chelsea Manning is a great example of thinking you're doing the right thing actually causes the deaths or endangerment of other service members, colleagues and even people who may have the same ideology as you.

 

[Idxomer]

 

[AfonsoAlves]

You don't understand, Nasrallah visited there 2 months ago and left his sunglasses there. It's a terrorist threat.

 

[Frosty]

Why are these factual news stories being deleted from X within minutes?

 

[Idxomer]

I think the Reuters reporter deleted it himself to update the story

 

[FireballXL5]

Hitting yet another hospital...what can you say at this point?

 

[Frosty]

I think the Reuters reporter deleted it himself to update the story

I don't trust Musk and his far right algorithms. Thanks for the explainer.

 

[Spark]

Hitting yet another hospital...what can you say at this point?

That they’re still child murdering cnuts.

 

[dumbo]

US investigation of IDF unit over alleged abuse against Palestinians could jeopardize aid​

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/21/israel-force-100-abuse-palestinians-investigation

Nine members of Force 100, a unit inside the Israeli Defence Forces, are the subject of criminal investigation over allegations that they sexually assaulted a prisoner at the Sde Teiman detention camp in the Negev desert, which human rights groups have dubbed “the Israeli Guantanamo”.

Given what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have covered for thus far I'm not holding out much hope that sexual assault of prisoners will move them in any way but you never know.

 

[MDFC Manager]

I think the Reuters reporter deleted it himself to update the story

Hitting yet another hospital...what can you say at this point?

Isn't this is how the Gaza genocide started? Just 'outside' shifa hospital?

 

[Laurencio]

The scumbags are threatening to bomb a hospital in Lebanon.

And then they did. What the feck is wrong with them. Bombing a hospital because there might be gold in the cellar is completely absurd.

 

[That_Bloke]

Its actually about protecting Israel from Iran's next response, because the Israeli attack is likely to be so unprecedented that Iran will be forced to either formally declare war on Israel or else launch a massive counterattack that the current Israeli air defense configuration cannot defend because it is not set up to deal with a large amount of ballistic missiles. That's where THAAD comes into the picture. It also gives Biden some degree of political leverage that Netanyahu doesn't attempt to go after non-military or nuclear targets in population centers, in exchange for Biden allowing THAAD to be positioned in Israel.

The THAAD system is not going to significantly up Israeli defenses. Not against Iran's most advanced weaponry. It will do a job, but not as a game changer. I maintain that the presence of American troops on Israeli soil is the biggest headache the US can currently give to Iran.

I think that the latest Iranian strike got the Israelis spooked, that's why their response has been delayed and they went crying to Uncle Sam. The US and Israel relationship is akin to too permissive parents unable to deal with a rotten, spoiled brat. If the US truly wanted to protect Israel, they'd keep them on a tight leash and stop the ongoing madness. You've already thrown yourselves into the abyss of infamy with your unconditional support of a genocidal regime, and instead of putting your foot on the brakes, you're doubling down. And one day or another, you're going to pay the bill.

On a side note, you're the only poster on the CAF who truly makes me the most uncomfortable. We got here a couple of Israel cheerleaders and die-hard supporters. Some of them are just not knowledgeable enough about the region's history and what's going on there, others are in denial, and then you have racist scumbags. They're quite easy to figure out.

But you belong to an entirely different category. You're an outstanding democrat and well aware of the world's matters. Yet your medieval vision of international relationships and your thinly veiled, absolute contempt and lack of empathy for anything coming from the Middle-East, with the exception of Israel, is truly horrifying.

If cognitive dissonance ever needed a personification, you'd be its poster boy.

 

[Kaos]

The THAAD system is not going to significantly up Israeli defenses. Not against Iran's most advanced weaponry. It will do a job, but not as a game changer. I maintain that the presence of American troops on Israeli soil is the biggest headache the US can currently give to Iran.

I think that the latest Iranian response got the Israelis spooked, that's why their response has been delayed and they went crying to Uncle Sam. The US and Israel relationship is akin to too permissive parents unable to deal with a rotten, spoiled brat.

On a side note, you're the only poster who makes me the most uncomfortable. We got here a couple of Israel cheerleaders and die-hard supporters. Some of them are just not knowledgeable enough about the region's history and what's going on there, others are in denial, and then you have racist scumbags. They're quite easy to figure out.

But you belong to an entirely different category. You're an outstanding democrat and well aware of the world's matters. Yet your medieval vision of international relationships and your thinly veiled, absolute contempt for anything coming from the Middle-East with the exception of Israel is truly horrifying. If cognitive dissonance needed a personification, you'd be its poster boy.

Card-bearing Democrats tend to be fairly progressive on pretty much every issue except that one. Israel acts as this one glitch in their otherwise progressive matrix of world views and principles, where condemning them (the same way condemning oppressive regimes like Russia and Iran comes naturally) just causes them to lock up or be evasive about the issue. They're often full of praise for their flagbearers Biden and Harris over much needed initiatives like excusing student debt and protecting Women's abortion rights (and rightly so), yet shrug their shoulders after watching their leaders essentially give their blessing over the latest round of civilian massacres, torture and gang rapes of prisoners, only to be up in arms again over the Iranian mullahs and Putin once they're back in the editorial spotlight. AIPAC has truly done a number on the political establishment there.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

The THAAD system is not going to significantly up Israeli defenses. Not against Iran's most advanced weaponry. It will do a job, but not as a game changer. I maintain that the presence of American troops on Israeli soil is the biggest headache the US can currently give to Iran.

I think that the latest Iranian response got the Israelis spooked, that's why their response has been delayed and they went crying to Uncle Sam. The US and Israel relationship is akin to too permissive parents unable to deal with a rotten, spoiled brat.

On a side note, you're the only poster who makes me the most uncomfortable. We got here a couple of Israel cheerleaders and die-hard supporters. Some of them are just not knowledgeable enough about the region's history and what's going on there, others are in denial, and then you have racist scumbags. They're quite easy to figure out.

But you belong to an entirely different category. You're an outstanding democrat and well aware of the world's matters. Yet your medieval vision of international relationships and your thinly veiled, absolute contempt for anything coming from the Middle-East with the exception of Israel is truly horrifying. If cognitive dissonance needed a personification, you'd be its poster boy.

It will.

THAAD increases ABM specific platforms in Israel by 50-100%. There's only two known Arrow 3 batteries, each capable of firing 24 missiles, and a few more Arrow-2 platforms which are less effective.

THAAD has an absurd success rate as well in testing, passing every intercept test for the past 20 years.

 

[That_Bloke]

It will.

THAAD increases ABM specific platforms in Israel by 50-100%. There's only two known Arrow 3 batteries, each capable of firing 24 missiles, and a few more Arrow-2 platforms which are less effective.

THAAD has an absurd success rate as well in testing, passing every intercept test for the past 20 years.

We'll see how it fares in real life situation, a wave of hundreds if not thousands of missiles, without any kind of warning.

I personally hope that it doesn't come to this point.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

We'll see how it fares in real life situation, a wave of hundreds if not thousands of missiles, without any kind of warning.

I personally hope that it doesn't come to this point.

There's no way for Iran to launch a singular wave of thousands of missiles - they don't have enough launch platforms for that.

The majority of them won't be IRBM's either, intermediate range ballistic missiles are expensive, even countries like China don't have thousands of them lying around.

If they were to launch a huge massed missile strike, the majority of the munitions will be cruise missiles or older ballistic missiles which the likes of David's Sling can intercept.

It's also kind of hard for Iran to not give warning when it has vast strikes.

The majority of their inventory are GLCM/GLBM which requires trucks to go to their staging positions which Western assets can very easily track.

 

[That_Bloke]

There's no way for Iran to launch a singular wave of thousands of missiles - they don't have enough launch platforms for that.

The majority of them won't be IRBM's either, intermediate range ballistic missiles are expensive, even countries like China don't have thousands of them lying around.

If they were to launch a huge massed missile strike, the majority of the munitions will be cruise missiles or older ballistic missiles which the likes of David's Sling can intercept.

It doesn't have to be thousands of missiles in one launch, and you're reacting based on the fact that Iran's strikes were telegraphed days in advance and strictly aimed at military targets.

Israel's air-defense systems are not infinite and given the amount of anti-missiles used to intercept incoming attacks, they'll eventually run out of ammunition. Iran has demonstrated twice that it has the ability to strike Israel's most protected sites, despite a warning. The amount of damage isn't important, the fact that missiles slipped through is what matters.

Imagine if the Iranians follow the path of the only democracy in the region and decide to indiscriminately strike Israeli cities? Given the size of Israel and its lack of strategic depth, how do you think an all-out Iranian attack will turn out?

The whole thing is absolute madness and leads us to uncharted territories. There's no winner in this war.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

It doesn't have to be thousands of missiles in one launch, and you're reacting based on the fact that Iran's strikes were telegraphed days in advance and strictly aimed at military targets.

Israel's air-defense systems are not infinite and given the amount of anti-missiles used to intercept incoming attacks, they'll eventually run out of ammunition. Iran has demonstrated twice that it has the ability to strike Israel's most protected sites, despite a warning. The amount of damage isn't important, the fact that missiles slipped through is what matters.

Imagine if the Iranians follow the path of the only democracy in the region and decide to indiscriminately strike Israeli cities? Given the size of Israel and its lack of strategic depth, how do you think an all-out Iranian attack will turn out?

The whole thing is absolute madness and leads us to uncharted territories. There's no winner in this war.

You cannot hide mass ballistic missile attacks.

All the main military areas are survailled 24/7, and if trucks start being loaded up and moved to their designated launch points, alarms will be immediately raised. At the very least, 3-6 hours warning will be given just from the sheer logistics of this endeavour.

Yes, Israel's defences can get saturated. Yes, it's almost impossible for a country like Israel to intercept the entirety of an incoming barrage.

But ultimately, Iran only has a few missile types capable of reaching Israel and there are simply not enough of those to saturate.

 

[That_Bloke]

You cannot hide mass ballistic missile attacks.

All the main military areas are survailled 24/7, and if trucks start being loaded up and moved to their designated launch points, alarms will be immediately raised. At the very least, 3-6 hours warning will be given just from the sheer logistics of this endeavour.

Yes, Israel's defences can get saturated. Yes, it's almost impossible for a country like Israel to intercept the entirety of an incoming barrage.

But ultimately, Iran only has a few missile types capable of reaching Israel and there are simply not enough of those to saturate.

Do you honestly want to find out who was right, just to prove a point?

 

[That_Bloke]

Card-bearing Democrats tend to be fairly progressive on pretty much every issue except that one. Israel acts as this one glitch in their otherwise progressive matrix of world views and principles, where condemning them (the same way condemning oppressive regimes like Russia and Iran comes naturally) just causes them to lock up or be evasive about the issue. They're often full of praise for their flagbearers Biden and Harris over much needed initiatives like excusing student debt and protecting Women's abortion rights (and rightly so), yet shrug their shoulders after watching their leaders essentially give their blessing over the latest round of civilian massacres, torture and gang rapes of prisoners, only to be up in arms again over the Iranian mullahs and Putin once they're back in the editorial spotlight. AIPAC has truly done a number on the political establishment there.

AIPAC has little to do with him.

I've read enough of his posts to realize that he's a hawk and a neo-con through and through. He believes in regime changes at gunpoint. Just look at his history and his posts on the Iran-Israel and the Israel-Palestine thread.

He unvariably shows up as soon as Israel scores some kind of "victory", especially when an extrajudicial murder occurs. You can't miss him, he's one of the first to react but remains remarkably silent about any war crime committed by Israel.