The americans dont think.
They never learn. Or maybe the few profiteeer just dont care. The hardline nationalist are too dumb to think that a war will destroy their country as well. Thank goodness the man in charge of iran is still level headed
Iran v US confrontation
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The americans dont think.
They never learn. Or maybe the few profiteeer just dont care. The hardline nationalist are too dumb to think that a war will destroy their country as well. Thank goodness the man in charge of iran is still level headed
We will increase our naval presence in the area, as will many other countries, and not just America's obvious allies. Our first carrier isn't ready yet though, aircraft are still being delivered and crews need to be trained.
Not sure if an Iran invasion thread is the right place to discuss this though, it's not clear at all who is responsible for the sinkings in the first place.
Iranian-American journalist here on how he thinks Tehran approach this conflict:
Doesn't really matter how they approach it. If the US go at them with even 50% of their military capability they will obliterate Iran. You wouldn't even need a full ground invasion/occupation for it to quickly turn in to a nightmare.
They're straight up delusional fools if they think poking the bear is a solid strategy. I feel for the people of Iran if they have idiots like this leading them to the slaughter house because they have a death wish.
I think the regime and many of its supporters view American military power in a very different light, like much of that region. They basically view America as a paper tiger - number one in technology, weapons, etc., and very much able to inflict much short-term damage; but with no will or staying power, no faith (in the religious sense) in the justness of their cause, and no legitimate business being in the region in the first place. They look across the region over the last 40 years and take great heart from all the various ways the people of the region have stood in defiance of American power - the embassy crisis, Beirut 1982, Saddam’s survival in 1991, Mogadishu 1993, Israeli humiliations in Lebanon in 2000 and 2006 and the survival of besieged Hamas since 2007, the utter mess made of Iraq since 2003, the survival of Assad since 2011, and the humbling of the Saudis by the Huthis in Yemen since 2015. Combined with their very real sense that God is not only on their side but working through them, I think they’ve concluded that ultimately America can and will collapse and withdraw from the region just as the Soviet Union did before them, and the British and French did before them.
That’s not to say they can’t or don’t operate on a pragmatic basis often enough, or that they’re actively looking for a bigger confrontation at this particular moment. But it may be enough reassurance in the back of their minds to test the Americans in such ways until the right time comes.
Why would you wish for your nation to have great short term damage inflicted upon you, including the death of thousands of your own citizens, destruction of much of your infrastructure etc etc? Even if they do view the US as a 'paper tiger' (which I don't get, sure they struggle with their longer term goals/combating insurgency but they've successfully invaded nations and overthrown regimes, who wants to tempt that?) then it makes little sense to want to bring air strikes down on your own nation.
Testing the US (especially under Trump) is a huge risk, best case scenario you get flattened for a while, worst case you deal with a lengthy invasion and occupation, the regime is overthrown, and then you have to wait for the US to decide it's not worth continuing to occupy. It must take an incredibly inflated ego for these people to decide the death of thousands of their own civilians/destruction of cities etc is worth it as long as they can claim a victory a decade down the line when occupation gets too expensive.
I don’t think they do wish for short-term damage, they just see it as a possibility which must and can be endured in the event it happens, and something that will ultimately be more damaging to their enemies than them. The regime has several long-term goals which can’t be bought off with financial or diplomatic incentives or deterred by the threat of sanctions or warfare.
They value martyrdom in the cause of God as the highest ideal a human can hope to fulfill. They believe it is their destiny to expel American (and indeed all non-Muslim) influence in the Middle East. Whatever the average Iranian or indeed regime official believes, the regime has spent 40 years hammering these points home, and in its view fulfilling them during the war with Iraq in the 80s, and via Hezbollah and other proxies since then.
Again this is not to say they’re actively looking to provoke a war right now, or even that they’re behind this morning’s incident. I just think many Westerners find it hard to wrap their heads around the idea that these are things that Islamists actually believe in and try to act upon.
This is plainly false though. Sure the US have had their failures in the Middle East and it's been a financial burden, but they've inflicted far more damage than they've taken.
It just seems a weird way to go about trying to expel the US, deliberately provoking them in to taking military action. They must be at least somewhat aware that if the US truly invested its efforts in to an invasion it would be successful? There's nothing from a military standpoint that Iran could do other than slow the invasion down and make it a slog, sure after that they could grind down an occupying force, but defeat would be inevitable.
Maybe they are following a different logic that has another definition of success?
I guess so. I'd be interested in knowing how the average Iranian actually feels about what they'd consider a success though.
In contrast, Western leadership seems the very definition of short-termism.
The example of the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 80s still weighs very heavily on Islamist thinking in the region, it suggests to them that the seemingly rational line of thought you’ve laid out there does not account for certain factors which cannot be measured in any material sense - most importantly faith in God and the justness of his cause.
I initially thought that but really we've been watching too many Netflix dramas. This is beyond the capability of any terrorist group and there are too many other nations involved for it to be a cosy up between the US and Israel.
It just seems nuts for the Iranians to do this. Like @2cents says they clearly have no fear of poking the bear because they think it will get bored and go away, but it will still rip your arms off first. The Americans have been itching for a reason to bomb Tehran off the map for years and the regime is giving them one.
I might go and fill the car up before the price of diesel goes through the roof.
I've got to be completely honest about this whole Iran thing. I think war would be terrible, it'd destablise Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan even further, it'd cause chaos with oil prices and if the Iranian bite matches their bark, it'll cost a lot of lives in the Arabian Gulf, Israel and the response will cause huge loss of life in Iran. I expect Iranian proxies in Syria and Lebanon would also engage Israel at this point, (depending on if they have any survival instinct or not).
I do see a silver lining though. In about 20 years time, we might have an Iranian regime which isn't prickly with all it's neighbours. Doubt it though - everyone thinks the arrogance and assholery is a radical islamist shia thing, it's not - it's an uber-Persian thing.
So maybe like a 2% chance of a silver lining - totally not worth the 10-20 years of suffering, death and choas that will take place.
Anything to back this up?
Only my limited biased personal experience.
I think that's silly. There's none of that on a personal level from what I have experienced and you can't translate political actions over to that.
They are people just like others.
It's too early to go to war.
Trump will want the boost from around September 2020 in order to time it right for November election. At the latest, America will fire the first shots in October of that year. This story is just about doing the ground work in preperation for that.
In any case, it's obviously a false flag. Iran is neither that stupid, nor that belligerent. Nothing about it makes sense.
Trump will want the boost from around September 2020 in order to time it right for November election. At the latest, America will fire the first shots in October of that year. This story is just about doing the ground work in preperation for that.
In any case, it's obviously a false flag. Iran is neither that stupid, nor that belligerent. Nothing about it makes sense.
Pompeo ramping up the rhetoric. Says Iran as attacked oil tankers.
The ones you called nationalists don’t want US involved in any war and want all the US military back in US
There is going to be lots of sabre rattling over this. I just hope the UK stays well out of it.
If Iran did indeed torpedo (or whatever) the Norwegian tankers, then why did their Navy help with the rescue?
None of this makes sense except it being a false flag and carried out by the USA, Israel or someone else wanting a war.
I hate to say it but this time, until we know more details, I think the conspiracy theories make more sense than what is being reported.
If Iran did indeed torpedo (or whatever) the Norwegian tankers, then why did their Navy help with the rescue?
None of this makes sense except it being a false flag and carried out by the USA, Israel or someone else wanting a war.
I hate to say it but this time, until we know more details, I think the conspiracy theories make more sense than what is being reported.
Don't generalise, that's not the case at all. So many I've seen want not only war with Iran but also world dominance. So many think the US should lead through strength and just love the Trump style bully boy tactics. Fair enough some may not, but you can't make a statement like you just did, because it's just not true at all.
Ops. I mean the iran hardline nationalist.
This war might hurt americans in the long run but in the short run it'll be Iran's demise
That only works if a superpower is behind them in that case was US and Uk, Russia will help them with weapons but more sanctions and could lead in a revolution against Putin so I will see a minimum help from Russia and China. Invading Iran will be a mistake and just bomb the shit out of them would be enough to cause chaos to a bankrupt economy. Then at the end the arabes would be happy but at same time call the American dogs and support more terrorism against the infidel.
The fact is they should not be in this position in the first place. Iran was complying .
That is too complex for Republicans to understand.
Remarkable that you can complete a thorough assessment so quickly from behind a bucket of KFC, Mike.
Does Pompeo do Chelsea's cup draws too?
Wag the Dog.
The cnut is so obvious.
The cnut is so obvious.
The original reddit thread for this news has gone from over 1k upvotes to 0 in a matter of minutes.
Biden will back this.
Nice try buddy.
It's been and will ALWAYS be the Persian Gulf.
Back on topic of today's events....it's just such a "coincidence" for this to happen as Abe is in Tehran. And for Pompeo to already identify who did it
I still think Pompeo/Bolton and Trump are playing the bad cop good cop thing here. Getting involved in another military adventure in Mid.East is one of Trump's surest ways of losing re-election. It just makes no sense whatsoever.
And I want these absolute cancers out of my country as much as anyone, but never through a foreign power destroying our infrastructure and murdering thousands of innocent civilians.
Thanks bro
No doubt that’s John Bolton’s doing.
This is completely a false flag to drive a war against Iran. USA needs war.
Nice try buddy.
It's been and will ALWAYS be the Persian Gulf.
Back on topic of today's events....it's just such a "coincidence" for this to happen as Abe is in Tehran. And for Pompeo to already identify who did it
I still think Pompeo/Bolton and Trump are playing the bad cop good cop thing here. Getting involved in another military adventure in Mid.East is one of Trump's surest ways of losing re-election. It just makes no sense whatsoever.
And I want these absolute cancers out of my country as much as anyone, but never through a foreign power destroying our infrastructure and murdering thousands of innocent civilians.
Doh, geography phail on my part.