Yep. Peace is hell.
Iran v US confrontation
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Time Lindsay got a grip of himself (no pun), he’s embarrassing himself so much.
Stand firm my liege.
fecking hell Lindsey Graham is more despicable than I already thought before. The Bolton war propaganda machine is in full overdrive again. We could see that one coming from a mile away I guess..
More billions for war games that could be better used elsewhere.
More billions for war games that could be better used elsewhere.
Yes Tulsi Gabbard is non-stop smeared by DNC and establishment Dems 24/7 for centring her campaign on fighting the Military Industrial Complex and their endless wars, and how it can impact average joe US citizens so much with all the money saved. Even on here as well
That's why I don't buy the whole Dems this, Repubs this...war is the only thing bringing the two parties together. Hell, the only time Trump has been praised by the Dems and establishment media in the last 2.5 years, was when he bombed Syria (see the latest development on that in the thread I bumped) and when he was openly pushing for a military coup in Venezuela.
At this point...it's not just the neo-cons, but rather neo-cons AND neo-libs together...Tulsi is spot on.
Graham and McCain have always been the poster boys of bloody war-hungry Neoconservatism. Alongside likes of David French, Shapiro, David Frum, and lots of other original NeverTrumpers.
Which made it a whole lot more strange seeing them worshipped and praised by so-called liberals and progressives just because they opposed a specific or two policies of Trump
There was even a tune on bombing Iran.Graham and McCain have always been the poster boys of bloody war-hungry Neoconservatism. Alongside likes of David French, Shapiro, David Frum, and lots of other original NeverTrumpers.
Which made it a whole lot more strange seeing them worshipped and praised by so-called liberals and progressives just because they opposed a specific or two policies of Trump
Haven't been following this current affair. Odds on US invading Iran?
Invading a la Iraq in 2003 : negligible.
Invading? Very unlikely. Air strikes? Why not?
If it happens, what do you think China and Russia will do?
Difficult to say ‘cos Trump’s nuts, but other than that it would be a ridiculously foolish thing to do.
as ridiculous as sending troops to the border to stop asylum seekers?
Nothing obviously.
Interesting to contrast this characterisation with the post right before (#477). Or any account by people who (or whose friends & family) have suffered at the hands of the regime, or have reason to fear them.
I never heard Iran was attacking vessels and pipelines, another Iraq excuse type of war? So far Trump is holding the horses unlike Bush did but lets see how long he does.
Bush had a major event to influence public opinion. Bolton has less to work with on this one so it takes more time to build a case.
I'm not sure the US do "win" this one in any sense. If they try and just air strike the shit out of Iran, the Iranians will block the Strait of Hormuz and trigger their insurgents across the ME. If the US try and actually invade then we're talking about an absolute bloodbath, and the chances of the US public stomaching those kind of loses are negligable. I just don't see any path to victory for the US here, its just a stupid unwinnable fight with the potential to strangle the worlds oil supplies and drag a host of neighbouring countries into constant insurgency. If Bolton manages to talk Trump into this, then they both deserve to be charged as war criminals.
You can enjoy Beijing while not liking the government there. Not everything is so black and white.
Nothing wrong with the first and last sentence I quoted on their own. My post was essentially about the middle sentence, which is not about short vacations.
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That didn't work so well last time.
The strategy would be to commit troops and then have Congress authorize war...or not .
Then run on the no votes in 2020.
Iran tensions are a smokescreen to authorize sale of weapons, without Congress approval, to Saudis.
Celebrate? It would be another step towards America cutting itself off from its allies and falls into Russia's political narrative that the US is the root of all evil so anything we do is ok. Russia would absolutely fecking love it.
I think they’d enjoy it only up to a certain point. In the event of actual regime change, they’d stand to lose an important regional ally and have to deal with more chaos on what they still consider their southern border. I’m not sure they’d calculate that all that is worth the Americans getting dragged into another quagmire.
Just how much of an ally is Iran to Russia though? US sanctions on Iran keep the oil prices high, which is important for Russian economy. In Syria they have been allies because they both support Assad, but for different reasons. I'm not sure Putin is very happy about Iran's rising influence in Syria and it certainly creates problems for him to form closer ties with Israel and Saudis, something that Russia is clearly interested in.
I do agree about the dangerous consequences of the possible conflict spilling out close to Russia's southern borders but the biggest threat from radical islamist organizations in the post-Soviet territories is coming from the Central Asia regions (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan etc) where population is predominantly Sunni Muslims and I doubt Iran has much influence there.
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His name is what the french will eventually call this war.
I think it largely depends on the form US intervention takes. If it's just airstrikes, nothing. If it turns into an actual invasion, I would imagine Russia will start throwing MANPADS and ATGMs at Iranian insurgency forces as the war shifts more and more towards insurgency and away from conventional. If the US were to invade, it's going to win the conventional bit, insofar as, it's going to reach Tehran and Trump is going to come out onto the Rose garden in a national guard flight suit, that accentuates his dong, and say "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" while crotch chopping himself degeneration-x style.
That will just be the start of a decade+ long blood bath that will result in, as an Iran war will devolve into what is just going to be a bigger scarier more organized version of Afghanistan, a horrifying quagmire. Insane mountainous terrain, 3x the size of Afghanistan, the Russians have a much bigger stake in Iran surviving as pro-Russian. There will be Strelas and Iglas on every hill and mountain top, just waiting to take potshots at aircraft. It would be absolutely horrendous and I think a later poster nailed it on the head. The cost in blood would probably exceed the combined cost of Afghanistan and Iraq, in a year or two, if not months.
But Iran did not comply with the Treaty.
oh wait.
oh wait.
The us is bound to have her karma looming for bombing the shits out of so many countries,.
All the flag waving morons will feel so proud..until one of their own comes back in a body bag.
They are so thick that they will love it even more as their dead love ones sacrifice would not have sense and they will wave it even more
The Russians would love to bleed us out just like we did to them in the 80s in Afghanistan. You are so right about every hilltop containing a Strela, it will become as well known as the Stinger was.
I genuinely wish to believe even Trump isn't crazy enough to invade Iran, but if he did, I think the scenario you've described is very close to what would actually happen. I also think America's usual allies would have serious trouble accepting the intervention, let alone supporting it. America's relationship with its European allies hasn't been the best lately, but that's nothing compared to the consequences of starting a new major war that pretty much all the big players, apart from the US itself, are against. Public opinion will definitely play a part and the anti-American sentiment will certainly grow. The number of casualties will be significantly bigger than any other US involved conflict post Vietnam, the financial resources it would require will be staggering and I don't see any other NATO members chipping in. Most importantly for Trump, I don't quite get how he'll explain to the American public and his political opponents inside the US the necessity of yet another major military operation against the state that resides thousands of miles away from the US borders and poses no apparent threat to America, apart from bashing US during public speeches.
Even as something to help Donald get re-elected I don't see how it helps his chances. It will give Democrats plenty of ammuntion against him, it won't be a quick military success, in fact it has all the familiar signs of the Iraq disaster, only against a much stronger, united and determined enemy. Russians wil no doubt provide provide weaponry and other military support to Iran and I wouldn't be surprised if China secretly does, too. It could easily turn into another Vietnam.
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Surely the joint chiefs, combatant commanders, intel people, etc. know an actual showdown with Iran would result in thousands of deaths on both sides, possibly trigger something bigger on the global stage, and likely end up another Iraq quagmire while intensifying terrorism globally.
Is it just media/political sabre-rattling or do we really believe an attack is likely to occur in the near future? I've heard nothing of us preparing for a potential attack/invasion unlike Iraq six months out but I'm not working in the intel and operational world at the moment.
@antihenry - As an American myself, never underestimate the American public's adept ability to be swayed by media and political spin. It's all about "freedom" and "god".
Is it just media/political sabre-rattling or do we really believe an attack is likely to occur in the near future? I've heard nothing of us preparing for a potential attack/invasion unlike Iraq six months out but I'm not working in the intel and operational world at the moment.
@antihenry - As an American myself, never underestimate the American public's adept ability to be swayed by media and political spin. It's all about "freedom" and "god".
Who do you think Trump works for?
You're like a Caf version of Walter Sobchak from Big Lebowski, only he was obsessed with Vietnam, not Putin.
The confrontation between the US and Iran goes back decades and has literally nothing to do with Putin and Russia.
I've lived in the States for a number of years and there's some truth to what you're saying but I just think in this day and age it's become much harder to manipulate the public. There are two things Americans in general care about: American lives and where their tax money goes. Bush used September 11 tragedy and the people's fear and anger that followed to get the public backing to move against Saddam, and even back then it wasn't a unanimous support within the country, let alone abroad. I don't see how Trump can justify a war against Iran at this moment in time, unless something terrible happens that helps him sway the public opinion.