It always has been. Firstly, even during Demon people had the ability to purchase or transfer their money out electronically. It's just one particular mode (cash) that had issues. Secondly, it's nonsense to even imply that trust in banking system is determined ir will be influenced by a one off event.
India politics thread
- Thread starter Shiva87
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It always has been. Firstly, even during Demon people had the ability to purchase or transfer their money out electronically. It's just one particular mode (cash) that had issues. Secondly, it's nonsense to even imply that trust in banking system is determined ir will be influenced by a one off event.
History has proven that bar odd state elections BJP can never win elections on communal card alone. Bar Gujrat, no state in India can be called a republican style "red state" for BJP. Even MP has been governed by BJP for last 3 terms due to Congress' faiilure to set up adequate opposition there. So, no, only a Hinduvta style campaign won't help elect Modi again. He won handsomly last time because a large number of people bought into the development man image he had cultivated for himself. This time, a lot of folks have already seen through the same and there is a lot of clamour among others to take him down. I still expect BJP to come to power at center but with the support of allies like BJD, AIDMK, TRS. Really can't see oppposition uniting given 3-4 separate leaders want to be PM.
Holy shit.. watching it for the first time.
.. in tears. The reporters retort of "shayad sunte nahi hain" is even more amazing, as is the person laughing behind him.Congress were doomed in their second stint due to the corruption narrative. They just did not counter that at all, especially after the Anna Hazarre movement. Economy could have been better than China and they still would have been voted out since people were convinced that they were looting the nation like anything.
I tried to work out the maths yesterday. From their seats in north India (every Hindi-speaking state), Guj, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, and their allied seats in Kashmir, and AP, I think they will lose 90-110. They will make up a few in Bengal, NE and Orissa. It means a net loss of 70-80ish seats, which means the combined opposition (Cong+NCP+RJD+JDS+SP+BSP+TMC+DMK+CPM+AAP) and NDA will have roughly equal numbers.
As you said, it will be decided by the "neutral" parties - BJD, AIADMK, TRS, Jaganmohan Reddy's party and maybe Shiv Sena.
It is pretty much an open secret than AIADMK and TRS are working with them. They can buy others like YSR Congress after the GE. Bihar will be crucial for them, since with JDU they should be able to sweep it. In total, BJP alone would need to win 220-230 seats on their own. Get the rest from allies.
I also think if a third front comes up with another Deve Gowda style PM, it will fall again in 2 years like before and history repeating itself with BJP coming to power after that too.
I am curious what would happen to Modi/Shah out of power. They have not been in that position since 2001.
Modi still has great personal popularity. Many people who are generally cynical about politics weren't/aren't cynical about Modi - if that changes he's just another guy.
ADMK will not do well in polls if they support BJP. There is increased support for BJP nowadays but ADMK will get hit badly if they openly support BJP. Its clear that the ADMK leaders would like Center's support for continued to bribe taking etc, so they make overtures now and then. But they do know if they contest in polls in a BJP coalition, they will mess it up. I've been wrong many times but the possibility is that ADMK will contest the election unaligned and will probably consider outside support for BJP or something sinister and try to extract unreasonable demands. Even that is almost signing death-knell for many of it's leaders inside TN.
If bjp don't sweep maharashtra, rajasthan, madhya pradesh, uttar pradesh and bihar then they're fecked.
Except Rajasthan, aren't they guaranteed to sweep pretty much rest of it.
SS will not go with Congress. TRS will probably go with NDA as well.
i (and crappy) think that even without a majority for nda, they will get outside support (aiadmk, trs, etc) which will get them through.
Found my maths for 2019
They maxed out seats in North India last time (from memory, 73/80 in up, 25/25 in Rajasthan, 25/29 in mp, 29/40 in Bihar, 12/12 in chattisgarh, 7/7 in Delhi, 11/11 in haryana). The mere existence of an opposition alliance will cut UP seats in half became of fptp maths. The Rajasthan and mp state govts are unpopular and they'll lose about half of those seats. I'm hoping aap can pull off 2-3 Delhi seats. I can't see chattisgarh or haryana repeating a clean sweep. In all this is about 60-65 seats. I think they also will lose quite a few to the new alliance in Karnataka (they have 15/25) and shed more in gujarat (26/26) and Maharashtra (42/48). Say 15 more, to make total losses = 80ish.
They have lost coalition partners in Andhra and j&k and shiv Sena might not support them. About 30 more seats in jeapordy. Total losses= 110.
Where do they make up 110 seats? 7/14 in Assam will definitely go up to by 5-7. Add 7 ish seats sprinkled throughout the NE. Another 8-10 in Bengal. Maybe 7ish in Orissa. That's it, totaling 36. New partners = aiadmk in tn (20 seats). Net loss = 110-56 = 54.
Right now NDA has a majority of 35-45ish IIRC. Basically the non-NDA parties need full unity to convert their seat losses into a loss of power, because even 1-2 defections could give modi the majority again. Undecided parties like tdp, trs, bjd and that Reddy party in Andhra will be important. Cpm better not be neutral in a trust vote.
Edit -forgot jharkhand, uttaranchal, hp, Punjab. Probably further losses in those since I think they're maxed out in all those too.
They have lost coalition partners in Andhra and j&k and shiv Sena might not support them. About 30 more seats in jeapordy. Total losses= 110.
Where do they make up 110 seats? 7/14 in Assam will definitely go up to by 5-7. Add 7 ish seats sprinkled throughout the NE. Another 8-10 in Bengal. Maybe 7ish in Orissa. That's it, totaling 36. New partners = aiadmk in tn (20 seats). Net loss = 110-56 = 54.
Right now NDA has a majority of 35-45ish IIRC. Basically the non-NDA parties need full unity to convert their seat losses into a loss of power, because even 1-2 defections could give modi the majority again. Undecided parties like tdp, trs, bjd and that Reddy party in Andhra will be important. Cpm better not be neutral in a trust vote.
Edit -forgot jharkhand, uttaranchal, hp, Punjab. Probably further losses in those since I think they're maxed out in all those too.
That particular alliance is a ticking time bomb and can fall any time. Perhaps even before the 2019 elections.
Need to see which way Paswan goes. If memory serves correct that guy hasn't backed a losing horse yet.
No they aren't at all.
In Up a Bsp sp rld alliance will feck them big time. Probably bigger than most expect given recent 3 bypoll results unless they polarize anyhow.
In Bihar they should have upper hand with jdu.
In mp they won't sweep anymore. Will be 50-50 or so.
I think BJP messed up politically in making Yogi the UP CM. They've largely lost most of the by polls since that decision.
Aiadmk will support them but it will mean nothing as they won't win many seats. Dmk might too but they prefer Congress.
Trs will go either way. But they'd prefer a non modi alternative if they have a choice.
I see a 2004 repeat in the offing. Just Rahul Gandhi needs to not feck up.
Not gonna happen.
He's been a poor administrator too and the lower castes don't like him.
Even without him a working Bsp SP alliance is impossible for them to overcome unless they polarize massively.
And the bypolls which happened were their strongest seats as well and incumbency advantage they had both in centre and state still lost comfortably.
Even Maha ncp is making comeback.
BJP lost the seats of CM and DY CM both in the bypolls. BJP thought that Yogi could have the same effect that Modi had in Gujrat and he could potentially be the PM in 2024. So far its looking like a pipe dream.
Am surprised so many of you think coalitions might come into play in 2019. I was thinking despite the issues, BJP will still win due to the alternative being Rahul Gandhi. He can try as hard as he wants, but his "image" is set and he will find it very difficult to break free from that.
It's very, very unlikely that BJP will gain a majority of its own in 2019. I'll be shocked actually. Its gonna be coalitions.
As @berbatrick there's no way they will replicate the same results in Rajasthan and UP.
Didn't realize SP/BSP were getting back to popularity in UP. Having Yogi would have been a big factor for sure.
Modi is like Trump for me though (in more ways than one) and the blind support he gets probably has skewed my opinion on how the polls will go in 2019.
I think he'll be the next PM, but he will have to be with the a lot more coalitions. This won't be easy. I also expect BJP to lose the Rajasthan elections.
Oh definitely if it's an NDA coalition.
Need to realize KCR will not support a congress government.. He'll ,mostly give outside support to BJP..
According to rumors,BJP seem to have made an alliance with Jagan also.. So that is around 25 seats from both states combined they ll get other than their own..
I think Raje will be trounced or even worse in Rajasthan.. UP will also go tits up.. Anti incumbency in MP,I actually think they are screwed this time.. Having a total impotent opposition helps ofcourse..
Are we sure that someone like NCP won't prop up Bjp in exchange for some good ministry?
According to rumors,BJP seem to have made an alliance with Jagan also.. So that is around 25 seats from both states combined they ll get other than their own..
I think Raje will be trounced or even worse in Rajasthan.. UP will also go tits up.. Anti incumbency in MP,I actually think they are screwed this time.. Having a total impotent opposition helps ofcourse..
Are we sure that someone like NCP won't prop up Bjp in exchange for some good ministry?
I think you are too optimistic about a non-BJP front. BSP and SP only joined hands because BJP alone was decimating them. BJP is a non factor in TN, so AIADMK and DML would never be part of the same alliance at center. Similarly, I don't buy CPM and TMC being part of the same Govt either even if the CPM is supporting from 'outside'. AAP would never join a Congress led center. YSR and TDP would never be part of same alliance at center at this stage.
Bloody hell, Yogi as PM and I would even start exploring Sri Lanka as a possible destination to emigrate.
I think there is a chance this could still happen. Even if the BJP loses the state Govts on Rajasthan and MP in coming Dec Polls, Modi will still try to convert the GE into a presidential style referrendum on his popularity as a leader. The populace in those states can rationalize punishing BJP by voting them out at the state level but voting Modi to stay in power at the center. Cong can't run a realistic anti-Modi campaign without projecting Rahul as an alternative, something that will piss off parties like BSP, TMC.
Yeah think there is an outside chance of this happening. Though still think it will be NDA who has the majority and not BJP alone.
Is Yogi not liked?
Mayawati is as good/bad as Yogi.
Yeah that's how I see it too. There are lot of issues that the opposition can raise and run with, but don't think it will be anywhere near enough.
He doesn't have one-tenth the charisma or the oratory skills of Modi. Add to that poor governance and his stock is pretty low right now.
The only way KCR will offer support to non-BJP is if he is declared PM or he or his son given top 3-4 ministry berth
Couple of religious riots will probably put votes in some states in favour of BJP/NDA
Yogi is definitely worse. A lot of bureaucrats loved Mayawati since she she gave them a free hand to rule over the state as long as she could get her pet projects done (and siphon off moeny through the same).
I hate corrupt politicians as they undermine everything else. Mayawati and Mamta are the ultimate trash in Indian politics. Not really a fan of either, but I'd take him over Mayawati.
UP at its current size is unsustainable. Should be divided into three parts.