India politics thread

India’s Fingers have come under Chinese boots. Denial won’t help us
The Modi government and the military have gone into ‘denial’ about loss of territory, attributing the present situation to differing perceptions about the LAC.


Lt Gen H S Panag (retd)
4 June, 2020 10:29 am IST

The situation in eastern Ladakh at the face-off points between Indian Army and the PLA–Pangong Tso, Hot Springs and Galwan river–remains unchanged from what I wrote in my last column in ThePrint. By now, the additional formations that would have been inducted by both sides to cater to escalation and further operations as per respective operational strategies, would have fully acclimatised to operate in these high-altitude regions.

Officially, both sides have been restrained in their statements and reiterated faith in diplomacy. Defence minister Rajnath Singh has said that diplomatic and military-level talks as per existing border management mechanism are in progress. While harping on “differing perceptions” about the Line of Actual Control (LAC), Singh said the Chinese presence along the LAC was in “achhi khasi sankhya (sizeable numbers). Major General-level talks have been conducted on 2 June and Lieutenant General-level, that is, talks at the level of Corps Commanders, are scheduled on 6 June.

China now has an upper hand in talks

Having seized the initiative by securing approximately 40-60 square km of Indian territory in three different areas, China will be negotiating from a position of strength and will try to impose unacceptable conditions–no further development of border infrastructure on the Indian side–to restore status quo on its own terms. If diplomacy fails, China has come prepared for a border skirmish or a limited war.

India’s task is cut out. It has to ensure that status quo ante 1 April, 2020 prevails for quasi sanctification of the “un-demarcated” LAC, so that China does not advance similar claims in future to gain tactical advantage and embarrass/humiliate India at will. If it cannot be done diplomatically, then it must be done by force. However, rather than evolving a clear strategy and broadly sharing it with the nation, the Narendra Modi government and the military have gone into ‘denial’ about any loss of territory, attributing the present situation to differing perceptions about the LAC.

Some journalists and activists are also busy peddling their interpretation of the alignment of the LAC to prove that no territory has been seized by China. A perception is being built for diplomatic acquiescence. What else does China want? We are playing into its hands.

I explain the ground situation in the three areas where loss of territory has taken place and analyse the dangers of justifying the loss to “differing perceptions of the LAC”.

Pattern of defence in Ladakh

The term LAC is not demarcated through a formal agreement, either side can vary in its perception. And this has remained the case despite the numerous confidence building agreements signed since 1993, and two informal summits. Out of the 857-km-long border in Ladakh, only 368 km is international border (IB) and the rest of the 489 km is the LAC. This was the line reached by China in 1962, which is exactly as per its 1960 claim line.

It is a treacherous high-altitude terrain with the valley height being 14,000 – 15,000 ft and hill features being at heights of 16,000-18,000 ft. The main defences cannot be physically located along the LAC because the terrain is not tactically suitable. These are located on the Ladakh Range, Pangong Range, along Shyok River and in the Depsang plains. The distance to the LAC varies from 10 to 80 km, depending upon the terrain. The main defences are manned by the Army and the LAC is secured by the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP). The security of the vast spaces ahead of the main defences is ensured by covering elements deployed at selected places, mechanised forces and by physical/electronic surveillance. The ITBP posts are along the routes of ingress and in disputed areas, but are not continuous like we have on the IB in plains.

There are vast gaps between the ITBP posts along the LAC. There are areas where the ITBP posts are well short of the LAC due to lack of infrastructure. To defend the entire length of the LAC, in strength and man, the main defences, as we do at the LoC, we will require at least 4-5 divisions instead of just one that is committed now. Even in the present pattern, the ITBP strength has to increase tenfold to effectively cover the entire length along the LAC.

Pangong sector

P1.jpg


The map shown above is at slight variation from the one in my last column based on fresh inputs.

Some journalists are misinterpreting the ‘Fingers’ north of Pangong Tso to justify the denial of loss of territory. The annotated satellite image of Google Earth above gives the correct location of the Fingers and the territory lost. In 1962, we were holding the area up to Sirijap. This was captured by the PLA in 1962 and consequently the LAC runs west of it at Finger 8, on to Ane La pass. The PLA post with a jetty (in pic above) is located east of Sirijap. Till 2011, our ITBP post was located well to the rear at Phobrang. The Chinese Claim Line is up to Finger 4. ITBP patrolled up to Finger 8 and the PLA up to Finger 4.

In 2013 – 2014 we developed a road to Finger 3 and Ane La pass. The ITBP established a new post near Finger 3 in 2013. The PLA patrols started blocking our patrols between Finger 4 and 8. The Chinese considered the establishment of the post at Finger 3 a violation of border management agreements. The frequent patrol blocking by either side led to a violent scuffle on 15 August 2017 and thereafter jostling by patrols became common. The PLA post remained at Sirijap and no post was established between Finger 4 and 8. Our patrols continued to patrol upto Finger 8.

In end April and beginning May this year, the PLA moved in regular troops and physically secured the area between Finger 4 and Finger 8 and now sits on top of Finger 4 . As per my assessment, based on my experience and media reports, the PLA has secured the entire area from Finger 8 to Finger 4, a distance of 8 km, and are overlooking our ITBP post between Finger 4 and Finger 3.
It has also secured the heights along Fingers 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 up to height of 4,500 – 5,000 meters ie 4-5 km to the north. Total area secured by the PLA is 35-40 square km. The PLA has deployed one or two battalions to defend the area as marked (on Image 1) with one or two battalions as reserve at Sirijap.

Galwan sector

P2-1920x1409.jpg


In Galwan sector, the PLA has secured the heights north and south of the Galwan river with. The PLA seems to have come across the LAC for 2-3 km in the valley and then climbed up the heights. It is also possible that it climbed the heights from China’s side of the valley and then moved along the heights westwards up to 3-4 km. What matters in mountains/ high-altitude is the control of the heights. The valleys become untenable when surrounding heights are with the enemy.

It is likely that the PLA has secured the heights with two battalions with one held as reserve at the LAC.

For the apologists of the “differing perceptions” who have theories to deny loss of territory, it is pertinent to point out that there are no differing perceptions about the LAC along the Galwan River. The intrusion here is deliberate to threaten the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldie (DS-DBO) Road and prevent us from defending it by securing the Galwan valley and the heights north and south of the river.

Hot Springs

P3.jpg


As per my assessment, at Hot Springs/Gogra, the PLA with nearly a battalion has almost surrounded the post and effectively denied the approach to Kongka La pass, which lies on the LAC but is not held by us. The aim here is to prevent road construction by India to the Kongka La pass. At Hot Springs and Kongka La, which is 4-5 km away from Hot Springs, there is no “differing perception” about the LAC.

Playing into the hands of the Chinese

The justification of “differing perceptions” is just playing into the hands of the Chinese.
We are very clear about the alignment of the LAC as we have cremated/buried our comrades who were killed in action in 1962. China stopped exactly on its claim line of 1960 and our rear posts were located on this line during the ’62 War. It is the Chinese claim line that has been changing since 1950.

It should be clear to the discerning reader that to be in denial and acquiesce to explain the loss of territory to “differing perceptions” will open pandora’s box, and in future, result in loss of more territory, possibly at Chumar, Demchok, Fukche, Kailash Range, Hot Springs, along the Shyok River and in Depsang Plains. Who knows China may apply the same logic at Tawang in the near future?

China cannot be allowed to get away with usurping Indian territories like it has done till now. This confrontation must end with status quo ante 1 April, 2020 and sanctification of the LAC with formal exchange of maps. Major Shaitan Singh, PVC and Major (later Lt Col) Dhan Singh Thapa, PVC who defended Rezang La and Sirijap in 1962 and 3,000 of our soldiers who were killed in action would be very unhappy in Valhalla. They died fighting in areas that lie along the current LAC. It would be a shame if we now acquiesce to give up those areas without firing a shot using the fig leaf of “differing perceptions”.

No wonder the Chinese military strategist and *********** Sun Tzu said some 2,500 years ago: “For to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”

Lt Gen H S Panag PVSM, AVSM (R) served in the Indian Army for 40 years. He was GOC in C Northern Command and Central Command. Post-retirement, he was Member of Armed Forces Tribunal. Views are personal.

https://theprint.in/opinion/indias-fingers-have-come-under-chinese-boots-denial-wont-help-us/435145/
 
Hasan Minhaj has spoken.
All people with desi heritage should watch this.
Stop hiding behind your own racism and ignorance.
#BeLikeRahulDube

 
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Watched it in the morning, he sounded mad.
mad as in angry mad? I think he hit the mark. so much hypocrisy within the desi world on this issue.

I wish Muslims in India can use this as inspiration to shame Indian cops .... or will the BJP just dance with whoops with even more visual evidence?
 
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New development
battalion commander-level, Brigadier-level and Major General-level meetings failed to resolve the standoff, there is news of Lieutenant General-level talks being scheduled, on the eve of which unusual PLA buildup opposite Sikkim is noticeable.
 
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Just realised since China has taken over heights of finger 4, our road running from Spangmik to man, merak and Chusul villages parallel to Pangong lake is also now exposed to chinese surveillance.

DBO and Pangong-Chushul route, that's two strategic roads now open to 24×7 enemy surveillance.
 
So is the next Indo-Pak war actually going to be an Indo-China war with Chinese bases all located down Eastern Pakistan?
 
So is the next Indo-Pak war actually going to be an Indo-China war with Chinese bases all located down Eastern Pakistan?
Why would there even be a war when this pussy government will keep ceding all the land that China wants?
 
Why would there even be a war when this pussy government will keep ceding all the land that China wants?

:lol:

Isn't the right wing Modi government itching for a fight? All right wing elements in the world are generally itching for wars. Now they're even more agitated after China pulled down their pants and stuck their own Fingers in (pun intended). :p
 
:lol:

Isn't the right wing Modi government itching for a fight? All right wing elements in the world are generally itching for wars. Now they're even more agitated after China pulled down their pants and stuck their own Fingers in (pun intended). :p
Nope, not at all. All is well according to them.


Things are going to get really hilarious if there's going to be a Democrat government in US soon, and the anti China rhetoric gradually dissipates away.
 
As per rumours in Telangana, there are hell lot of covid cases all around. But the govt is neither interested in conducting adequate tests nor willing to accept the high numbers. The data apparently is being suppressed, if not collected at all. Many people seem to have complained that hospitals are just asking them to feck off if they come complaining about cough or fever.

With things opening up like crazy, are we in for a doom?
 
I am pretty certain next 2 weeks will see exponential increase of cases in India across many states like we saw in US for NY or countries like UK, Italy, Spain. Delhi today reported 1000+ cases, I am fairly confident that actual numbers are 4-5 times the same since I personally know of 12 people who are infected but have not gotten even tested. These 4x numbers just refers to actually sick people rather than asymptomatic carriers. Given the current state of the situation, Govt is still not sure if we are in community transmission stage yet. :lol: :lol:

In another 2-3 weeks if not earlier, Govt will reactively re-introduce the strict lockdown initially imposed. Now that middle case is starting to suffer due to lack of adequate testing and hospitals, the coverage from social media is getting amplified on TV channels and newspapers. So only a matter of time that despite best efforts of central and all the state Govts, the reality on the ground will be exposed if not by true numbers but by sheer panic or helplessness of the general public.

It is quite amazing that the 2 month lockdown which destroyed the economy and led to suffering of so many migrants and other poor people was completely and utterly wasted by Govt at all levels. They could not even procure enough test kits in 3 months! Doubt they even arranged for more ventilators or oxygen cylinders.
 


After this, I am sure Shah will impose strict lockdown on BJP spokespersons attending non-scripted interviews.
 
I am pretty certain next 2 weeks will see exponential increase of cases in India across many states like we saw in US for NY or countries like UK, Italy, Spain. Delhi today reported 1000+ cases, I am fairly confident that actual numbers are 4-5 times the same since I personally know of 12 people who are infected but have not gotten even tested. These 4x numbers just refers to actually sick people rather than asymptomatic carriers. Given the current state of the situation, Govt is still not sure if we are in community transmission stage yet. :lol: :lol:

In another 2-3 weeks if not earlier, Govt will reactively re-introduce the strict lockdown initially imposed. Now that middle case is starting to suffer due to lack of adequate testing and hospitals, the coverage from social media is getting amplified on TV channels and newspapers. So only a matter of time that despite best efforts of central and all the state Govts, the reality on the ground will be exposed if not by true numbers but by sheer panic or helplessness of the general public.

It is quite amazing that the 2 month lockdown which destroyed the economy and led to suffering of so many migrants and other poor people was completely and utterly wasted by Govt at all levels. They could not even procure enough test kits in 3 months! Doubt they even arranged for more ventilators or oxygen cylinders.
They don't have the balls to reintroduce the lockdown again. The economy will collapse. There's not enough money that will save it.
 
Most likely the numbers may get fudged to show improvement especially since monsoon means these numbers can be mixed with dengue and leptospirosis.

Life will rapidly move back to normal because earning needs will demand so. And we will all lead weirdly schizophrenic lives
 
They don't have the balls to reintroduce the lockdown again. The economy will collapse. There's not enough money that will save it.

If current situation in Delhi escalates Govt will be compelled to reintroduce lockdown at some point. Economy would collapse anyway if a significant portion of people are infected. So many shops that opened near my place, closed down with a week because whole workforce there got infected. If economy had to be opened then Govt needed to test aggressively and isolate places with infected folks, not to mention ensure migrants got support so that they did not have to travel and increase spread further. Govt simply sat on their hands and enjoyed a vacation instead.
 
I am pretty certain next 2 weeks will see exponential increase of cases in India across many states like we saw in US for NY or countries like UK, Italy, Spain. Delhi today reported 1000+ cases, I am fairly confident that actual numbers are 4-5 times the same since I personally know of 12 people who are infected but have not gotten even tested. These 4x numbers just refers to actually sick people rather than asymptomatic carriers. Given the current state of the situation, Govt is still not sure if we are in community transmission stage yet. :lol: :lol:

In another 2-3 weeks if not earlier, Govt will reactively re-introduce the strict lockdown initially imposed. Now that middle case is starting to suffer due to lack of adequate testing and hospitals, the coverage from social media is getting amplified on TV channels and newspapers. So only a matter of time that despite best efforts of central and all the state Govts, the reality on the ground will be exposed if not by true numbers but by sheer panic or helplessness of the general public.

It is quite amazing that the 2 month lockdown which destroyed the economy and led to suffering of so many migrants and other poor people was completely and utterly wasted by Govt at all levels. They could not even procure enough test kits in 3 months! Doubt they even arranged for more ventilators or oxygen cylinders.
Today's numbers are a bit better but yeah, next few weeks are critical. If they're suppressing numbers then we're undoubtedly fecked.

Regarding lockdown, it just seems that all the government's have accepted that we don't have the financial resources to afford it and that we have to deal with whatever consequences may come along.
 
Today's numbers are a bit better but yeah, next few weeks are critical. If they're suppressing numbers then we're undoubtedly fecked.

Regarding lockdown, it just seems that all the government's have accepted that we don't have the financial resources to afford it and that we have to deal with whatever consequences may come along.

Numbers are 100% automatically suppressed via lack of easily availed testing. I myself tried to help my acquaintances to get one today for their families but no luck. Delhi Govt has foolishly suspended 4-5 private labs, rest are now scared and only doing very limited testing of 40 or so patients daily on first come first serve basis. In Govt Hospitals it is the usual tale of apathy and inefficiency, you can go and stand in a line there for 4 hour and then be told to come tomorrow. I also got told via some doctor network, this could easily be false gossip, that bureaucratic approval is required to run any tests in hospitals now and they are purposely delaying same to make sure numbers don't explode at once.
 
Today's numbers actually look suspicious, and convenient given its day 1 of unlock.

Given the current state of the situation, Govt is still not sure if we are in community transmission stage yet. :lol: :lol:
How are people even buying this anymore :lol: By their own admission, the authorities aren't able to trace the source of several positive cases.
 
Today's numbers actually look suspicious, and convenient given its day 1 of unlock.


How are people even buying this anymore :lol: By their own admission, the authorities aren't able to trace the source of several positive cases.
There is a meeting in Delhi tomorrow with expert panel and Delhi Govt headed by Sisodia to decide if we are in community transmission phase. :wenger:

Poor Kejri can't attend since he might himself be sick.
 
There is a meeting in Delhi tomorrow with expert panel and Delhi Govt headed by Sisodia to decide if we are in community transmission phase. :wenger:

Poor Kejri can't attend since he might himself be sick.
Perfect.

It's unbelievable that we find ourselves in this situation, despite having a massive headstart (I mean the lockdown happened at the right time). With monsoon kicking in, we're really looking at the initial scenes of a complete horror show.

People on the streets meanwhile are beginning to ditch social distancing and masks. Allowing religious places to open up is just mind boggling crazy.



https://timesofindia.com/india/rajn...r-is-circus-going-on/articleshow/76268843.cms
Ironic, given the circus he's personally presiding over at the borders...
 
Perfect.

It's unbelievable that we find ourselves in this situation, despite having a massive headstart (I mean the lockdown happened at the right time). With monsoon kicking in, we're really looking at the initial scenes of a complete horror show.

People on the streets meanwhile are beginning to ditch social distancing and masks. Allowing religious places to open up is just mind boggling crazy.



https://timesofindia.com/india/rajn...r-is-circus-going-on/articleshow/76268843.cms
Ironic, given the circus he's personally presiding over at the borders...
BJP is busy buying other party folks in Gujarat, Bihar and WB. And if possible in Maharashtra too.

#PMCARES
 
If not the spread, they could have at least gotten enough testing kits, ventilators and made enough makeshift hospitals. :(
Thought Trump was gonna send over some ventilators our way?

Makeshift hospitals. People on Twitter were questioning whatever happened to those repurposed train coaches, why aren't they stationed at Mumbai and Delhi. Or was it just yet another PR excercise...

Like crappy said, there's absolutely no excuse for not building up testing capacity though. That should have been the bare minimum target.
 
If not the spread, they could have at least gotten enough testing kits, ventilators and made enough makeshift hospitals. :(
See the Ram Madhav video I shared. He claims govt is ready with 900,000 beds and everything. And just a few hotspots here and there to be handled thats all