Horse racing tips

Frankel makes his seasonal debut at Newbury over a mile. He'll be about 1/5 so it's just one to watch. Possible match up with Aussie supermare Black Caviar at Goodwood in the Sussex stakes later on.
 
Immense performance. The best flat horse I've seen.

He has nothing left to prove over a mile other than beating the 3yos so challenges will be a possible match-up with Black Caviar (and I would like to see that over 7f rather than a mile to even up the chances of both animals) and later on mile and a quarter races where the likes of Cirrus Des Aigles and maybe Bonfire will be tough opponents.
 
Nearco said:
Immense performance. The best flat horse I've seen.
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Have to agree, though I've never seen him in the flesh unlike Mill Reef, Shergar or Dancing Brave et al. It's a testament to a lack of interest in racing these days that we can entertain an angel practically unawares.
 
I think the interest would be there but we have a terrible media that is basically obsessed by football and twats.
 
Big day in Ireland tomorrow where Jim Bolger runs my Derby fancy Parish Hall in the Irish 2000 Guineas. This horse has beefy stamina elements to his pedigree and he looks the type who will only proper come to himself when stepped up in trip. With that in mind winning the Dewhurst last year was a surprise and an indication that he could be a bit special. The mile at the Curragh might suit him as it's a stiff track and whilst the price has gone a little (got 6s earlier in the week) I think he's a big price for the Derby and is a solid each way bet.
 
Yeah I'd row in with that - 9/2 seems a very fair price. I think the French missed their chance at soggy Newmarket, Trumpet Major lacks top class and Power is underpriced due to the O'Brien factor. Might have a couple of quid on the Derby too.

EDIT: Parish Hall out of both with a leg infection
 
Desperately disappointing. I have my doubts that Camelot will stay the Derby trip (he is my Montjeu but his female line has speed elements to it that makes it not 100%) and I felt Parish Hall was a cracking each way bet at double figure odds. Today's race was poor and was there for the taking.
 
Yeah the proximity of the rags would bear that out. I had a few quid on the Derby but left the Guineas bet to the day.
 
Absolutely no value left in the derby, think the bookies have the top 3 in the betting spot on. Judging by the exchanges today wouldn'y be surprised to see Imperial Monarch bypass this for the French Derby which means the top three will only shorten.
 
I agree. Can't oppose the favourite partly because he's so solid and partly because there is nothing to take him on with.

The Oaks is different though. Maybe is around 5/2 but should be 8s. The way she travelled in the Guineas suggests she's a miler (an Oaks winner first time out over a mile would have been off the bridle way before Maybe was with the injection of pace that was put to that race - especially on the rain softened ground.) I like Vow at around 6/1 and the Godolphin filly Kailani is very backable at double figures. Vow is trained by William Haggas - an underrated handler - and whilst she veered across the track when winning at Lingfield last time out I think too much is being made of it with regard to Epsom and she's a filly with a sharp turn of foot who should go well.
 
I'm a big Vow fan i think she has all the ability in the world but she was just too green for me on her second start at Lingfield. I half fancy the 2nd horse that day Colima at 14/1. If Vow handles the track though I think she will win to be honest and I wouldn't put anyone off backing her at 6/1.
 
I was disappointed with Vow. She was well ridden and well placed but just didn't have the class. Couldn't even get placed:(:(

The Derby is Camelot's for the taking and he hope he pisses it and faces Frankel later on in the season.

Masked Marvel is worth a bet in the Coronation Cup at 2.40. There really isn't that much difference in ability between him and odds-on St Nicholas Abbey. Certainly not as wide as the prices indicate. 10s is good value.
 
Camelot looks as if he has the Derby at his mercy, I thought he might get chopped for speed in the Guineas but he was quick enough to win it.

Course and distance winners have a good record at Epsom lining up tomorrow are:

1.35 Mister Music has won over 9f on good and run well over 10f on heavy.

2.40 Saint Nick, who got turned over at 2/5 last time out. Avoid.

3.15 Captain Dunne (third go for the 7-year-old - 2nd, nowhere, and won last year 9st 10lb may not be enough to stop him again), Living It Large (doesn't appeal) and Diamond Charlie (doesn't appeal) in the downhill.

4.55 Two course winners, Fiery Lad has won 7 races none of them over 12f, Spanish Duke has won 4, none over today's trip.

5.25 Baldemar, 4 runs at Epsom over 6f, 3 wins on good going.
Swiss Cross, all turf wins on good-to-firm, recent runs very poor.
 
peterstorey said:
Course and distance winners have a good record at Epsom
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9 horses either CD or C, two winners (though, of course, I dissed both of them in commentary) and two placed at long odds. 3.75 pt profit backing the lot to win at level stake.
 
I don't think he was gonna win anyway Barbara. There are a couple of colts in Union Rags and Street Life who have every chance of staying 12f effectively. A distance that is rarely run in American dirt contests.
 
I'm having a shit flat season but have two or three bets lined up at the Royal Meeting.

Frankel runs in the opener. It's a no bet race naturally. Can't wait to see him either run over 10f or take on some 3yos.

The sprint looks terribly hard but Power has drifted to a backable price in the 3.45. He's the best horse in the race, his trainer has won it numerous times, he's well drawn and he's 5/1. Sometimes punting is that simple. Hopefully.
 
Nearco said:
The sprint looks terribly hard but Power has drifted to a backable price in the 3.45. He's the best horse in the race, his trainer has won it numerous times, he's well drawn and he's 5/1. Sometimes punting is that simple. Hopefully.
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Dunno about Power that Irish 2000 form looks suspect to me. I think Hermival will run a better race on good to soft.
 
It isn't the greatest of form but I think it's a poor race today. Hermival was highly flattered in the Guineas and the ground is drying out all the time.

Another possible bet is Worthadd in Frankel's race. But in the without favourite market. He's around 10s and worth an each way interest. His best form is on straight tracks and he's a big horse who was unsuited to Epsom last time out.
 
evra said:
I'm going out on a limb and tipping a little known horse called Frankel.
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You need to set up a tipping service so I can immediately sign up to it.

Backed Ortensia in the next at 11/2 earlier. Now favourite.
 
Well, that went well. Torn between power and The Nile in the next. Think I'm going to go ew on the Nile, at 12-1 pretty good value for a yard in form.
 
Didn't back Hermival since it was drying out but I thought Benoist gave him a crap ride, lost his place 4 out and ran on too late.
 
Frankel has been trending all day on Twitter. I don't think he's making much of an impact on the country at large though. Certainly not to the extent Black Caviar is on Australia. Wonder if he'll make the 6 0'Clock news?
 
I think Reliable Man is overpriced in the Prince of Wales today. He can be forgiven a couple of poorish runs earlier in the season (needed the race first time up on heavy ground and too short a trip last time) and he has form that puts him close to Carlton House who is ten points shorter in the market. Has place claims.

The Hunt Cup is one of the hardest races of the week to punt in but Captain Bertie should go well. He's been in excellent form since being gelded and I think he's still ahead of the handicapper.
 
Paddy Power were offering a 5/2 special on So You Think earlier, not a huge horse racing man but had to back that when the normal price was Evens.
 
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