Horse racing tips

Nearco said:
Can't wait to see Frankel finally tackle further than a mile tomorrow. He should win but this is far less straightforward than the odds suggest. The longer trip and slower pace mean he has to settle for longer than he ever has had to before. I think he'll be OK simply because he has such a massive class advantage, but shocks have happened in this race before and this track with it's long straight will really suit St Nicholas Abbey. He'll be fair flying at the finish and I think he's a good each way bet. I can't have him unplaced in the this.

Hajras at 7/1 is worth a punt in the handicap that closes the card. Last time out at Ascot he led late on and won going away by a length. This measurement of victory underestimated his superiority that day and the six pounds he went up in the handicap doesn't look enough.
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My favourite meeting of the year, we used to do some serious punting back in the day. I can't see Frankel having much of a problem judging by the way he cruised around Goodwood, mind you when a horse doesn't stay they go from cruising to walking in a few strides. I still remember Roberto ('stung by a bee') beating the Brigadier in this race too. York was always tough for punters and has got worse, the answer is to lay the arse off them (except Frankel).
 
I agree. I tend to do either very well or awful at the Ebor meeting. Shorties are positively out. I'm going on Friday, fingers crossed for a nice day.
 
Nearco said:
I agree. I tend to do either very well or awful at the Ebor meeting. Shorties are positively out. I'm going on Friday, fingers crossed for a nice day.
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The Ebor itself is a black hole for me I've NEVER backed the winner. Friday has my big two races the Gimcrack and Nunthorpe, tho' the former won't see a Mill Reef and the top sprinters have been disappointing in recent years (bigged-up handicappers in my book).
 
Same here. I never bother with the Ebor now.

The Nunthorpe actually looks good this year. I've backed the Aussie mare Ortensia because she won impressively at Goodwood with a 7lb penalty and is too big at around 11/2. But Bated Breath and Sole Power are decent as well.
 
Unstoppable, such acceleration.

I fear that TV which is all i've ever had the chance to see Frankel on, really doesn't do a win like that justice.
 
Best ever. The trainer doesn't like the race but he should really go for the Arc after that.
 
The horse moves like a Jaguar motor car with turbochargers. And his jockey knows exactly how to ride him. I am so glad I was able to watch that.
 
My only bet of the day is on Shareta in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. This French trained filly is a fast ground animal who loved the conditions she faced in last year's Arc where she was a fantastic runner-up despite being a pacemaker. That run was a big step up on all known form but it was the first time she'd had her ground in a big race. This year she's run twice and not won but under foot conditions were soft on both occasions. The good to firm ground will really suit her and at around 4.7 on Betfair I think she's a good value bet. I'm not in love with our 3yo fillies this year and I think 7/4 about The Fugue is poor. She won the Nassau Stakes nicely enough last time out but I thought it was an average renewal of the race and for me she's overrated.
 
Nearco said:
My only bet of the day is on Shareta in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. This French trained filly is a fast ground animal who loved the conditions she faced in last year's Arc where she was a fantastic runner-up despite being a pacemaker. That run was a big step up on all known form but it was the first time she'd had her ground in a big race. This year she's run twice and not won but under foot conditions were soft on both occasions. The good to firm ground will really suit her and at around 4.7 on Betfair I think she's a good value bet. I'm not in love with our 3yo fillies this year and I think 7/4 about The Fugue is poor. She won the Nassau Stakes nicely enough last time out but I thought it was an average renewal of the race and for me she's overrated.
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Shirocco Star might be worth a go in that, especially at odds of 9/1 on PP.

Also like the look of Invisible Man at 14s in the 3.05 at York, and fancy a wee nibble at Swerve in the 4.50.
 
I'm at York today and I'll be backing Ortensia and Dubai Prince. Hope the rain stays away for the former. She was very impressive carrying a 7lb penalty on fast ground at Goodwood. Dubai Prince also ran at that meeting but didn't stay the mile and a half that day after looking a likely winner of the race he contested. Over 9f today I think he's overpriced at around 5/1.
 
Nearco said:
My only bet of the day is on Shareta in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks. This French trained filly is a fast ground animal who loved the conditions she faced in last year's Arc where she was a fantastic runner-up despite being a pacemaker. That run was a big step up on all known form but it was the first time she'd had her ground in a big race. This year she's run twice and not won but under foot conditions were soft on both occasions. The good to firm ground will really suit her and at around 4.7 on Betfair I think she's a good value bet. I'm not in love with our 3yo fillies this year and I think 7/4 about The Fugue is poor. She won the Nassau Stakes nicely enough last time out but I thought it was an average renewal of the race and for me she's overrated.
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Won it well. Its been a good week so far. Backed the Weld horse in the staying race. Looks a promising sort.

Gona have another go today. Enjoy it ontrack....still havent been to a big flat meeting, how does it compare to likes of Aintree/Cheltenham?
 
Nearco said:
I'm at York today and I'll be backing Ortensia and Dubai Prince. Hope the rain stays away for the former. She was very impressive carrying a 7lb penalty on fast ground at Goodwood. Dubai Prince also ran at that meeting but didn't stay the mile and a half that day after looking a likely winner of the race he contested. Over 9f today I think he's overpriced at around 5/1.
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Wow. Was on Bet365 placing some football bets, which I absolutely never win on, and had a quid left in my account. Came in here and decided to place a double on these 2 horses winning. So now I'm £40 up, probably the first bet I've ever won haha.

I'm officially coming in here for your tips from now on :D
 
Nearco said:
I'm at York today and I'll be backing Ortensia and Dubai Prince.
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Well punted. I was going to do Ortensia til I saw Buick on TV saying he thought the softer ground had killed her chance. Then he rides a brilliant race to win it. William is going to be way better than Spencer/Moore/Hughes, he reminds me of Pat Eddery - consistently puts away the good horses and can conjure the magic to win races he probably shouldn't.
 
peterstorey said:
Well punted. I was going to do Ortensia til I saw Buick on TV saying he thought the softer ground had killed her chance. Then he rides a brilliant race to win it.
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Can't understand his comment there. The ground looked fine to me and bolstered my confidence in the mare. Had a fantastic day but no bets today. The Ebor looks a nightmare to solve and is best left well alone.
 
Nearco said:
Can't understand his comment there. The ground looked fine to me and bolstered my confidence in the mare. Had a fantastic day but no bets today. The Ebor looks a nightmare to solve and is best left well alone.
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All the jockeys thought it was 'loose on top' though the going stick was reading good, even after the race Buick was saying the mare couldn't get traction early on and he was surprised to win (though I thought he rode a superlative race).
 
Can't oppose Camelot in his Triple Crown bid this afternoon. Not sure he'll stay as the bottom half of his pedigree is all speed but he has a big class advantage which should see him home. The 3yo colts this year have been the worst bunch I can ever remember and I personally can't rate Camelot that highly until he takes on his elders. Would love to see him run against Frankel.

Only bet of the day is Strong Suit in the 4.15 also at Doncaster. This horse needs a fast surface over 7f to show his best form and he gets it today. I'm holding out for 5/2 though as he ran last week which is a bit of a concern.

Tomorrow in Paris we have the Arc trials. I'm a massive fan of the Japanese colt Orfevre (who won their Triple Crown last year). He's currently 8/1 for the Arc and that is worth taking. The fact that the horse has been over here a few weeks and has a prep run for the big race is vital.
 
lem8sh said:
Hard luck for the Japanese with the draw, needs a miracle from there I feel. Great Heavens the only value left in the race for me.
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Too much being made of the draw. Sakhee and Dalakhani were both drawn very wide but were good enough and ridden well enough to nullify their positions in the gate. If Orfevre is given a good ride (and the best jockey around Longchamp is on him) it won't get him beat.

I'm on Orfevre at 12s and am confident. I still think he's the most likely winner. Camelot is favourite which is plain wrong. His position in the market means there is value to be had out there

I like Sea Moon at around 10/1. He loves cut in the ground and the fast pace he'll get here will suit him more than the crawl they went at Ascot in the King George.

The big thing about the Arc is that the 3yo's are slightly advantaged by the weight for age allowance and the French ones are usually put away for this when the older horses are out in the summer running against one another. That being the case Saonois is a decent price at 9s. He won the French Derby over 10f and was quite impressive in the Prix Niel.
 
Have any of you ever been to racing in France and particularly Longchamp, how does it compare to the experience in the UK and Ireland?

Wouldn't mind seeing another finish like that of Bronze Angel's last weekend.
 
Nearco said:
Too much being made of the draw. Sakhee and Dalakhani were both drawn very wide but were good enough and ridden well enough to nullify their positions in the gate. If Orfevre is given a good ride (and the best jockey around Longchamp is on him) it won't get him beat.

I'm on Orfevre at 12s and am confident. I still think he's the most likely winner. Camelot is favourite which is plain wrong. His position in the market means there is value to be had out there

I like Sea Moon at around 10/1. He loves cut in the ground and the fast pace he'll get here will suit him more than the crawl they went at Ascot in the King George.

The big thing about the Arc is that the 3yo's are slightly advantaged by the weight for age allowance and the French ones are usually put away for this when the older horses are out in the summer running against one another. That being the case Saonois is a decent price at 9s. He won the French Derby over 10f and was quite impressive in the Prix Niel.
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I think that Prix Niel was a joke of a race, they went no pace at all. Hope Orvevre gets it done for you I've had no bet and pretty much all value gone now. At least the proper racing will be coming to hand after Sunday
 
lem8sh said:
At least the proper racing will be coming to hand after Sunday
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Can't wait for the Jumps. I've had a profitable flat season but there's nowt like the winter game and that countdown to Cheltenham.
 
Orfevre to win or Sea Moon each way. There is also a horse called Kesampour who is like 40/1 plus and likes deep ground. Chance at that price.
 
I can't have him at the price. His trainer has a terrible record with 3yo's at this meeting and he just ran really flat in the Leger. Don't think he'll like the ground either.
 
Well, we did get a Bronze Angel style finish. :) Exciting stuff.

Camelot never in it, and nor was Saonois from my PoV.


ETA: Oh, bad luck Nearco.
 
I just flicked on to see Sea Moon covering the track, but I was a bit late and just saw Sea Moon across the finish line.
 
Cracking days racing today. Excellent cards and Newmarket and Chepstow.

At the former I've done Motivado in the 3.35. He'll appreciate this step up in trip after being a beaten fav in the Ebor. Well drawn and worth a do each way with five places being paid.

Cristoforo Colombo is a speculative bet in the Middle Park at 2.20. He ran well at the Royal Meeting in a mega hot renewal of the Coventry before disappointing on soft ground since. Like his dad he's a good ground colt and he may have been overlooked somewhat at 5/1

At Chepstow the main thing is to see how Fingal Bay runs in the 3.00. I've backed him ante-post for the RSA at the Festival in March at 12s. Future Gold Cup horse imo.

I've backed Ulis de Vassy in the 4.10. He's bottom weight in this handicap, loves the soft and is handled by the trainer I follow on the jumps. Nick Williams targets this meeting with his good horses.
 
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