Horse racing tips

Paddy Power were offering a 5/2 special on So You Think earlier, not a huge horse racing man but had to back that when the normal price was Evens.





Didn't see that. That was a fantastic price.

Got the winner of the big handicap but it was a last minute bet

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It's gotten harder the last few years for some reason. I went ten straight flat seasons showing a profit at the end of each season but two of the last three have been losses. I've got a feeling an angle or two has closed. Had a horse in my notebook from York last month who came out on Derby day and was 3/1 for a handicap. Pretty sure back in the day he'd have been 5s and a bet.

Jumps have been the other way. Was in and out but only one losing season in the last half dozen.

Opinion Poll is good value in the Gold Cup tomorrow. Dettori gave him a poor ride in the race last year but I expect he'll be closer to the pace this time. I think he's improved (the horse, Frankie is in Federer mode - steady decline) and I'm glad the young French lad is on him.
 
I've taken your advice. Betfair (I don't know if this went out to everyone) are giving me £25 of free bets. Well, technically, they're refunding any stakes up to £25 after 24 June. Lost a fiver today, so that (assuming I lost no more, nor won anything) would be refunded. So I've emptied my account on Opinion Poll, knowing I can't lose. My favourite bets those ones.

Did anyone else who uses betfair get that offer by the way?
 
I'm not really a fan of 2yo races this time of year but I know one or two people who are keen on Gale Force Ten in the same race Lem. Might be worth a saver.
 
I've taken your advice. Betfair (I don't know if this went out to everyone) are giving me £25 of free bets. Well, technically, they're refunding any stakes up to £25 after 24 June. Lost a fiver today, so that (assuming I lost no more, nor won anything) would be refunded. So I've emptied my account on Opinion Poll, knowing I can't lose. My favourite bets those ones.

Did anyone else who uses betfair get that offer by the way?

Yep, also had one the days before £25 net loss refund to celebrate euro 2012 :). Hasn't paid me yet though because, of course I lost.
 
Kailani is well worth an each way interest in the 3.05. She's a German bred filly who was impressive in soft ground at Newmarket on Guineas weekend.

She ran in the Oaks but she was so bad coming down the hill I was reminded of John Terry at full pelt.

It's pissed it down overnight and I think she'll go close.
 
Can't oppose Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee. Hope she smashes them up.

The bet today is Sea Moon in the Hardwicke at 3.05. I think he's a class above his opponents today and around 7/2 on Betfair is fair. The danger according to the betting is Aiken. He's a nice horse but very underpriced - Dunaden, who he beat last time out, will be more suited to the likely faster pace today and I see him chasing Sea Moon home.
 
Can't oppose Black Caviar in the Diamond Jubilee. Hope she smashes them up.

The bet today is Sea Moon in the Hardwicke at 3.05. I think he's a class above his opponents today and around 7/2 on Betfair is fair. The danger according to the betting is Aiken. He's a nice horse but very underpriced - Dunaden, who he beat last time out, will be more suited to the likely faster pace today and I see him chasing Sea Moon home.

You're right of course but he was 1/6:lol:

Nearly fecked it at the end too...
 
It was only worth taking on if you had it in a multiple or to win by numerous lengths. Fantastic finish to the race for people like me who didn't have a bet on, but a dreadful ride from the jockey, really thought BC had lost it.
 
Yeah the jockey was pretty apologetic, but feck, it won in the end. It's a massive horse...
 
RIP Campbell Gillies, a smashing jockey.
Little did Lucinda Russell know after winning the Albert Bartlett that her horse Brindisi Breeze and Campbell would be gone three months later :(
 
:( RIP

Terrible waste of talent.....

Cheltenham Festival-winning jockey Campbell Gillies has died following an accident on holiday in Greece.

Gillies, who was due to turn 22 on Wednesday, was attached to the Lucinda Russell yard in Kinross, Scotland.

He rode the biggest winner of his fledgling career when Brindisi Breeze ran out an impressive victor of the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.

Russell posted on her website, www.lucindarussell.com: "We learnt this morning that Campbell died as the result of a swimming accident while in Kavos, Greece.

"Campbell was on a short holiday with one of our head lads, Mark Ellwood, and jockeys Nathan Moscrop, Henry Brooke and Harry Haynes.

"This dreadful news has hit the whole yard. He was a much loved, popular and respected member at Arlary, and it is so hard to lose part of our 'family'.

"We are immensely proud of the achievements of Campbell. It was through his innate ability and talent that he reached great heights as a jockey at such an early age.

"More than that he had a wonderful charm that I believe came across to everyone who met him, and through his media interviews.

"His victory at Cheltenham on Brindisi Breeze was the pinnacle of his career; the race epitomised him as a jockey; his belief and confidence and his innate timing. He became one with the horse.

"This empathy and love of his horses was one of the reasons that he was a truly great jockey."

Rory McNeill, Campbell's uncle, made the following statement on behalf of Lesley (his mother), and his brother and sister Finlay and Rita: "The whole family is devastated and trying to come to terms with our loss.

"Campbell was dearly loved by one and all, and this is shown by the tributes to Campbell. We hope that at this time we can be given the space and time to grieve."

Gillies' brother, Finlay, plays rugby for Glasgow Warriors and the club said in a statement: "Glasgow Warriors are deeply saddened to learn of the sad passing of Campbell Gillies, brother of Warriors hooker Finlay.”

Gillies sprang to prominence due to his association with the classy Lie Forrit, trained by Willie Amos.

He rode his first winner in the 2007-08 season and had 131 winners under his belt.

Last year was his best campaign to date with 38 winners and he was in action as recently as Sunday at Hexham.
 
Awful news. The lad had the rest of his life and probably twenty Festivals left to ride in. RIP.
 
Tomorrow's King George looks to me like the best renewal for some time with a whole host of classy older horses, including foreign animals, taking part and I have had Sea Moon in mind for the race since before his Hardwicke win. Indeed I risked a whole five pounds on him at 14/1 the day before that victory. He has a similar profile to Harbinger and was almost as impressive in his win at the Royal meeting. I think he was better than the bare result that day as he went for home quite early in the straight.
Eclipse winner Nathaniel is the market leader and is respected and I have hedged on him by putting him in a double with Valyra for the Arc (the Aga filly was impressive in the Diane and is value at 14s with the Ballydoyle horses at the top of the market for that race all being criminally short in the betting)

St Nicholas Abbey is one of those horses and his form does look better going left handed. He's somewhat overrated in my opinion and I consider Arc winner Danedream a bigger danger tomorrow. She needs to bounce back from a poor run in France last time out however and whilst she's a danger if I'm honest Nathaniel apart none of the others worry me overmuch.

I've turned my season round after an appalling start and am confident about going into the black either tomorrow or at Glorious Goodwood.
 
Glorious Goodwood starts tomorrow. It's massively overshadowed by the Olympics but there are a couple of bets to be had anyway.

Girolamo is a tidy 5/1 in the 2.35. This is a German trained horse who was third in their Derby. Foreign trained horses tend to go off at bigger prices than they ought to. An angle I've been exploiting for years. I didn't back Danedream in the King George because I fancied Sea Moon too much. Stupid. But Giofra was a crazy price in the Falmouth. It's just an angle that keeps on giving and I think Girolamo should be 11/4 tomorrow. Our 3yos are pretty ropey.

Libranno is also around 5/1 in the 3.10. I think the Cecil filly who heads the market is a tad short and my selection is in good form this year. He has form at the track and is trained by Hannon, who always does well here. Unfortunately the race only has seven runners so it isn't an each way bet to nothing but he's good value nonetheless.
 
Glorious Goodwood starts tomorrow. It's massively overshadowed by the Olympics but there are a couple of bets to be had anyway.

Girolamo is a tidy 5/1 in the 2.35. This is a German trained horse who was third in their Derby. Foreign trained horses tend to go off at bigger prices than they ought to. An angle I've been exploiting for years. I didn't back Danedream in the King George because I fancied Sea Moon too much. Stupid. But Giofra was a crazy price in the Falmouth. It's just an angle that keeps on giving and I think Girolamo should be 11/4 tomorrow. Our 3yos are pretty ropey.

Libranno is also around 5/1 in the 3.10. I think the Cecil filly who heads the market is a tad short and my selection is in good form this year. He has form at the track and is trained by Hannon, who always does well here. Unfortunately the race only has seven runners so it isn't an each way bet to nothing but he's good value nonetheless.
German classic winners used to be group 3 horses at best (and then only on soft) but that seems to have changed of late. I'd agree about the home 3YOs so 5s is probably good value (going shouldn't be a problem with rain tomorrow am). I'm going down to see Frankel on Wednesday, if you want to mark my card tomorrow.
 
Not this year. I've been before though and it is a beautiful track. Very picturesque. One of my things is to visit a new track every year and I've chalked Leopardstown and Newbury off my list in the last twelve months. Would love to visit one Stateside. Santa Anita ideally.

Don't fancy anything tomorrow. I've a feeling they'll take it quite easy with Frankel as he's due to be stepped up in trip which will be awesome to see.
 
Sussex Stakes - Special Handicap Betting

William Hill

Bullet Train (+15 lengths)
11/4
Farhh (+ 8 lengths)
11/4
Frankel
11/4
Gabrial (+13 lengths)
11/4

Farhh is worth a bet at those odds. The other two are a pacemaker and a horse who was beaten in a terrible renewal of the St James Palace at Ascot. Frankel steps up in trip next time out and I think his jockey will be tender on him in the last furlong or so.
 
Sussex Stakes - Special Handicap Betting

William Hill

Bullet Train (+15 lengths)
11/4
Farhh (+ 8 lengths)
11/4
Frankel
11/4
Gabrial (+13 lengths)
11/4

Farhh is worth a bet at those odds. The other two are a pacemaker and a horse who was beaten in a terrible renewal of the St James Palace at Ascot. Frankel steps up in trip next time out and I think his jockey will be tender on him in the last furlong or so.

Three way dead heat??
 
No Bullet Train won that. He was beaten around 9L by Frankel and was under the starts he got from the other two. Dettori didn't ride out a finish on Farhh but I fancy him to go one better on Colour Vision tomorrow though. He's 3/1 when he should be around 7/4. He carries a penalty but so did Olympic Glory, who won the 2yo race today and I'm not sure Saddlers Rock will be at home on this track on ground that should be getting faster. The Mullins horse should be 8s.
 
Gatewood is chronic value for the Group 3 tomorrow that opens the card tomorrow. I backed him last time out but the gap between group races and handicaps is hardest to bridge at 10 and 12f.
Quest for Peace owns the single best piece of form on show having won a good race at Ascot last Autumns and I like Dubai Prince in this company as well. I've backed them both. When you get a really bad value favourite it means two and sometimes three horses can trade at bigger prices than they should.

In the Betfred Mile Captain Bertie is worth another go with a good draw and lots of dead wood in the Betfred Mile. It's about time the powers that be changed handicaps so they are drawn using ratings rather than weights after wfa is taken off. It's bullshit that decent 3yo's can't get in these sort of races. Bronze Angel will just have to wait another day.
 
Stewards Cup looks a night mare. Only bet of the day is in the Nassau Stakes. If we ignore Nahrain's last run - a run she obviously needed over a trip that is short of her optimum - she wouldn't be 9/2 for this by a long chalk. Respect Izzi Top but she's a bit skinny.
 
I think I'd do Borderlesscot and Mac's Power each way. The former loves the track and although he's not as good as he was he has run OK in big races this year. Mac's Power was third last year and I doubt this renewal is as good. Certainly nothing of Hoof It's class in it. And of course some bookies pay the five places.
 
Can't wait to see Frankel finally tackle further than a mile tomorrow. He should win but this is far less straightforward than the odds suggest. The longer trip and slower pace mean he has to settle for longer than he ever has had to before. I think he'll be OK simply because he has such a massive class advantage, but shocks have happened in this race before and this track with it's long straight will really suit St Nicholas Abbey. He'll be fair flying at the finish and I think he's a good each way bet. I can't have him unplaced in the this.

Hajras at 7/1 is worth a punt in the handicap that closes the card. Last time out at Ascot he led late on and won going away by a length. This measurement of victory underestimated his superiority that day and the six pounds he went up in the handicap doesn't look enough.
 
Sorry Barbara, it's the Ebor meeting at York. A four day fixture with a lot of good contests.

The feature is the race Frankel runs in, the Juddmonte International. It's over a mile and a quarter and it's the race Brigadier Gerard (then unbeaten) was beaten in by Derby winner Roberto. The latter was given no chance as the Brigadier was considered unbeatable at the time.

Incidentally, Roberto was owned by Pittsburgh Pirates owner John W. Galbreath who named him after Roberto Clemente.
 
Thanks old boy. If it is a Grade I race it might be on the racing channel over here (fingers crossed) especially if Frankel is running.
 
I imagine the Americans take more interest than normal in Frankel just because of who he is named after. Or at least the racing fans do.