Ran an absolute cracker. I thought it could run a decent race but that was superb.
Horse racing tips
- Thread starter evra
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Ran an absolute cracker. I thought it could run a decent race but that was superb.
Did Riverboat to win and Cool Bahamian e/w in this one.
I did Riverboat but didn't expect him to give them a furlong start.
I'll be backing him again though. He literally tore by that field in a furlong at the end.
Anyone think St. Nicholas Abbey can be turned over here in the next? I think Joshua Tree could be in with a squeak, and at 8/1, might be worth a small bet. The pacemaker for SNA could work out just as well for Joshua Tree, who is a dual Group 1 winner over today's distance. SNA should (and in all likelihood will) win this but Joshua Tree interests me.
Stuck £2.50 each-way on him, Pete. Just had a little feeling about him is all. As we all know, sometimes you have to overlook the black and white formbook and go with instinct. Trainer does well at Epsom, the horse had a lot of Class 1 entries and ran a Derby trial a few months ago so it suggested Epsom was on their minds all along. Only a small punt, but as with Vainglory yesterday, it's better to be on than not!
Wow. Ultra impressive.
Frankel looks better and better every time you see SNA bolt home like that.
Frankel looks better and better every time you see SNA bolt home like that.
Well done, I feared you'd ended up putting money on something else. I'm a bit lazy these days I usually only look at the first 6 in the betting, even doing it half-arsed takes a lot of time.Stuck £2.50 each-way on him, Pete. Just had a little feeling about him is all. As we all know, sometimes you have to overlook the black and white formbook and go with instinct. Trainer does well at Epsom, the horse had a lot of Class 1 entries and ran a Derby trial a few months ago so it suggested Epsom was on their minds all along. Only a small punt, but as with Vainglory yesterday, it's better to be on than not!
Right, on to the lottery that is the 'Dash' next. Five previous CD winners make this even all the more difficult to predict. I like Balding's Top Cop as I think it's open to improvement and a claimer takes a handy 7lbs off an already nice weight. Behind Duke of Firenze and Fair Value on form at Goodwood over the distance but I think conditions suit today for it to get competitive. Drawn nicely and first-time blinkers today also a positive and 16/1 offers some value.
Confessional is another who appeals on the basis of CD form. 2nd two years ago and unlucky in running last year (finished 5th) so it can handle this course. Same headgear tried as last year today, decent middle draw, Easterby has had some winners recently from a sluggish start, de Sousa on board as well so all indicates it might fall in to place today, and 16/1 offers value again.
Others probably more likely, but these two are slightly overpriced in my view, and the Dash often throws up big-priced winners.
Confessional is another who appeals on the basis of CD form. 2nd two years ago and unlucky in running last year (finished 5th) so it can handle this course. Same headgear tried as last year today, decent middle draw, Easterby has had some winners recently from a sluggish start, de Sousa on board as well so all indicates it might fall in to place today, and 16/1 offers value again.
Others probably more likely, but these two are slightly overpriced in my view, and the Dash often throws up big-priced winners.
You still sweet on Duke of Firenze in the Dash?
He wants a step up in trip, was outpaced on debut too but got away with it.
That was brilliant from Moore there. The aerial view showed how good a ride that was.
I think the mile and a half will do ok on a different track.
feck was on fair value there. died in the last 100 yards.
I am now - got 7s. £5K traded at 1.08 or lower on Fair Value.
I'm often critical of Moore (and Spencer and Hughes) but he was brilliant there. Nicely up on the day with a bet to nothing on Chopin to come. £1037 to find for a season ticket.
Haha, come join your mate Robin in Salford, Pete. We have competitive ST prices here!
I'm keen on Chopin in the Derby as well (got 12/1). Bolted home to score by 9l in Germany suggests he will stay the distance and will surely be there to capitalise should Dawn Approach fail to get the trip. Dawn Approach's form has also taken a slight hit with subsequent runners from the 2000 Guineas flopping. Many expect it to power home and get the trip cosily but there's one too many unknowns for me at that price.
I've also gone for Galileo Rock (got 33/1) who on breeding will relish the trip today. Finished ahead of Libertarian at Sandown, who is ridiculously half GR's price today (okay, it won the Dante, but still). Galileo Rock also has some form that ties in with Battle of Marengo as Galileo Rock almost caught Sugar Boy in that run at Sandown and Sugar Boy was not far behind Battle of Marengo previously.
It's not a Derby that screams quality and I think we could have a double-digit winner today, or at least someone to go close. Looking forward to it all the same. Playing with the bookie's money still so happy to go against the grain as such.
wow favourite not settling at all
Bit embarrassing for Dawn Approach.
Should never have been in the race.
The field had their homework done. Much too slow which forced Manning to push Dawn Approach much too early. Joseph will rue opting for Battle of Marengo instead of Ruler of the World. Great afternoon for Ryan Moore all told.
Having a look into the 4.50 here and there's some very interesting runners. Looking at the trends for this race, only one favourite has won here in the last ten years so that's intriguing. The two Mark Johnston runners interest me, particularly Scatter Dice who is a front-runner and is drawn nicely to cement a commanding early race position. Party Line is back down to his optimum trip (4 wins) and has experience at winning big-field handicaps so it wouldn't be surprising to see him getting competitive today.
I like the promising claimer Ryan Tate and he rides Cayuga in this race. He finished 2.5l behind Duke of Clarence (favourite in this) at Windsor earlier in the season and gets an 8lb swing in the weights from that race so there's every chance it can go close.
I haven't finalised a selection yet but those three are interesting. Who do the rest of you fancy?
I like the promising claimer Ryan Tate and he rides Cayuga in this race. He finished 2.5l behind Duke of Clarence (favourite in this) at Windsor earlier in the season and gets an 8lb swing in the weights from that race so there's every chance it can go close.
I haven't finalised a selection yet but those three are interesting. Who do the rest of you fancy?
Great tip Naheali. Backed it £5 e/w and got back £214 from tote. Took pressure off and ended the day about 200 up. Could not get internet access at the race. No-one could apart from the odd second here or there. Bit frustrating but great day out.
They do that on purpose at all the tracks so you have to bet on course.
fecking awesome being in the box in the grandstand- massive and runs right over the finishing line.
Serious? They scared Twitter bollocks or whatever will hurt them? The box (bearing in mind it was the title sponsor's box) had wifi, but needed a password. When I asked, they said it wasn't actually working. Bollocks, it was a full strength signal. Could also see there was a Jockey Club wifi feed too.
First Saturday in a long time that I am not going to have a bet on the horses. In fact, I want to decrease my gambling radically from now on. I am sure we've all been in these situations whereby the penny drops in terms of how much you're gambling and how much of an effect it's having on your personal life and your mood. I am not in financial trouble, or even close to it, but when you're dropping £100 in an afternoon just out of boredom, you begin to question why exactly do you do it. I began to have an interest in gambling in my teenage years and only ever did it for fun. One of the first football bets I ever won on was a €5 bet on Milan Baros to be top goalscorer at Euro 2004 at 50/1 and was hooked thereafter. In recent months I've moved in with the missus and I am as happy as I've ever been, but when you head home to the person you love and have to explain why you have no money for the next few days until you're paid again all because of a few bets on the horses/football, it really hits home. Even lately when I've had a winner the feeling of euphoria hasn't been the same, which is a sure sign that I'm no longer enjoying it and that maybe it's become more of a problem.
I am watching Channel 4 racing on television at the moment and I am enjoying the racing for what it is. Of course, it's not the same as when you have a financial interest in the race, but I really think the game isn't worth it anymore. I noticed something in the last ten days that has more or less made my mind up for me too with regards the horse-racing industry and that's the insider knowledge that so many ordinary punters like ourselves aren't privy to. Brian Ellison has had three or four odds-on horses running in the past ten days that had plenty of money for them, and all were defeated. Indeed, they never looked liked winning. He had Pelmanism running at one of the same meetings and he had very poor form in the lead up to the race. Pelmanism went from 14/1 to 9/1 in the blink of an eye just as the horses were off, and he ended up being beaten narrowly by a half-length. Pelmanism ran again two days later and was a similar price (I backed him this time) and he again finished second. We're not naive and we know the smaller yards need to make a few quid with these gambles but it's blatant cheating in my view, and the ordinary punter has no idea of how prevalent it is.
Another example the other day was Planetoid scooting home at Newton Abbott. He started at odds-on in an 11 runner handicap hurdle. I know it was a low grade race but his form figures going into the race was 000F00. He is trained by Jim Best and I was amazed before the race at his price albeit with McCoy on board. He was 10th of 11 at 100/1 on his last run, 7th of 8 before that and so on back through his form. Then suddenly he is odds-on in an 11 runner handicap and hoses in. Anyone studying the form would lay him all day at that price and get their fingers burnt. He obviously wasn't running to his true ability in all his other races and a form punter has no chance with this carry on.
Apologies for the long-winded post, but it's just something I wanted to share and I feel all the better for it. I don't ever see myself stepping away from the punting forever as I enjoy it, but I am determined to try get the fun element back to it and manage my bets and level of betting far better in future.
I am watching Channel 4 racing on television at the moment and I am enjoying the racing for what it is. Of course, it's not the same as when you have a financial interest in the race, but I really think the game isn't worth it anymore. I noticed something in the last ten days that has more or less made my mind up for me too with regards the horse-racing industry and that's the insider knowledge that so many ordinary punters like ourselves aren't privy to. Brian Ellison has had three or four odds-on horses running in the past ten days that had plenty of money for them, and all were defeated. Indeed, they never looked liked winning. He had Pelmanism running at one of the same meetings and he had very poor form in the lead up to the race. Pelmanism went from 14/1 to 9/1 in the blink of an eye just as the horses were off, and he ended up being beaten narrowly by a half-length. Pelmanism ran again two days later and was a similar price (I backed him this time) and he again finished second. We're not naive and we know the smaller yards need to make a few quid with these gambles but it's blatant cheating in my view, and the ordinary punter has no idea of how prevalent it is.
Another example the other day was Planetoid scooting home at Newton Abbott. He started at odds-on in an 11 runner handicap hurdle. I know it was a low grade race but his form figures going into the race was 000F00. He is trained by Jim Best and I was amazed before the race at his price albeit with McCoy on board. He was 10th of 11 at 100/1 on his last run, 7th of 8 before that and so on back through his form. Then suddenly he is odds-on in an 11 runner handicap and hoses in. Anyone studying the form would lay him all day at that price and get their fingers burnt. He obviously wasn't running to his true ability in all his other races and a form punter has no chance with this carry on.
Apologies for the long-winded post, but it's just something I wanted to share and I feel all the better for it. I don't ever see myself stepping away from the punting forever as I enjoy it, but I am determined to try get the fun element back to it and manage my bets and level of betting far better in future.
Pelmanisms form wasnt that bad at all considering he was running without headgear,which he needs. Once they came back at Hamilton his level of performance improved. Ellison likes a bet but one horse he would not be backing would be Pelmanism as he is a bit of a tripless monkey, illustrated by the fact he has ran over 6 to 8f this season already. He will pop up because he has become well handicapped and thats why he will continue to be supported in the market but there is nothing untoward here.
In regards to Jim Bests Planetoid, nobody worth their salt would lay a Jim Best handicap debutant in a dirt race at Newton Abbot. He is one of the best gambling trainers of all time. He likes to get his horses handicapped as quick as possible, nothing illegal there. Why the handicapper gave him a rating of just 85 is anybodys guess, especially considering his flat rating of 83.
I guess half the problem is that horse racing and boxing are the most dodgy sports on earth. I generally prefer betting on footie, although I wouldn't like to assert that it is clean. But hell, if you feel you need to step back a bit from the gambling, good on you for recognising that. At least you realise it can cause problems wit your missus and are not in denial about at fact. My wife doesn't gamble and she finds it staggering I can bet on the number of corners in a half/a yellow card being dished out in a 15 minute period etc...
Henry Cecil has past away Gutted, a genius and great ambassador for the sport.
Gutted, a genius and great ambassador for the sport.Just heard about his death there Massive loss to a lot of people.
He won his first classic in 1975, Dettori's dad rode it.
Frankel couldnt have happened to a better bloke. RIP
Massive loss to a lot of people.He won his first classic in 1975, Dettori's dad rode it.
Frankel couldnt have happened to a better bloke. RIP
Cracking weeks racing ahead at Ascot.
I backed Elusive Kate in the opener a while ago each way. Can't see her out of the frame but the price has gone. Expect Animal Kingdom to probably win.
I fancy Reckless Abandon in the King's Stand. He's a fast 2yo from last year who has trained on judging by his effort at Haydock last time out. 6/1 is fair.
I can't have Dawn Approach in the 3.45 For me he's pretty much a sprinter who hangs on over a mile and this is a far different test than the Guineas. I think Magician's form is stronger and Toronado will be a different proposition around a turn. I'm on the latter each way and have the former in a double with Animal Kingdom.
I backed Elusive Kate in the opener a while ago each way. Can't see her out of the frame but the price has gone. Expect Animal Kingdom to probably win.
I fancy Reckless Abandon in the King's Stand. He's a fast 2yo from last year who has trained on judging by his effort at Haydock last time out. 6/1 is fair.
I can't have Dawn Approach in the 3.45 For me he's pretty much a sprinter who hangs on over a mile and this is a far different test than the Guineas. I think Magician's form is stronger and Toronado will be a different proposition around a turn. I'm on the latter each way and have the former in a double with Animal Kingdom.
Animal Kingdom has 10lb in hand over most of these, still too short for me at 11/8 being untested on good and only 1 in 4 on turf - a race to watch. I fancy Kingsgate Native to continue its return under Cowell in the King's Stand. I expect Dawn Approach to confirm Bolger's opinion that he is a champion miler who should never have lined up for a Derby.
O'Brien just on TV laying out what a troubled preparation Magician has had over the last week. From my reading he wouldn't be running if it wasn't such a big race. Dawn Approach is massive value at 13/8.
I took Dawn Approach at 13/8 on PP. Came into 5/4 I believe at the start. Good win.
Great performance by Dawn Approach, took a hold again, nearly got knocked over but toughed it out in the last 100 yards. Ascot can go back to being the graveyard of the fav now.
Might have a decent punt on Thunderstrike, very impressive at Epsom - rest talking horses?
Ha, ha talking horses say... 'feck me - what was that!'.
Pleased with Toronado. Great race.
I'm at work the rest of the week. Nightmare.
I like Camelot in the Prince of Wales tomorrow. He's more of a turn of foot merchant than Al Kazeem and this short straight will suit him more.
Also backed Prince of Johanne in the Hunt Cup. Won it last year and is off the same mark.
Gone for a lucky 15 on:
Al Kazeem
Duntle
Mutin
Directorship
Al Kazeem
Duntle
Mutin
Directorship