Horse racing tips

2.10 Epsom

Two CD winners Resurge and Area 51. Resurge has 3 wins, 3 seconds from 9 starts over 10f but looks on the decline at 8. Area 51 won over 10f end April and is the selection.
 
Area Fifty One for me too, Pete. Fahy/Spencer have teamed up for 9 wins from 39 runners with a profit of £22 to a £1 stake. CD winner recently too adds to the appeal.

Circumvent is one who interests me for a place. Goes well fresh, has won at Goodwood before, Queally in the saddle and it could out-run its price today.
 
peterstorey said:
2.10 Epsom

Two CD winners Resurge and Area 51. Resurge has 3 wins, 3 seconds from 9 starts over 10f but looks on the decline at 8. Area 51 won over 10f end April and is the selection.
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feck Area 51 came second- a mate tipped Area 51 and then Blue Surf- he got them the wrong way round:(
 
Poor form that Neil Callan has been taken off Sri Putra in the next at Epsom with the ride given to Dettori. Callan has been the horse's number one rider since 2010. Callan is in fine form and all. Peculiar.
 
2.45 Epsom
Between Producer (4 course wins) and Gregorian (good form in GpI) for me. Not sure about Producer over extended mile, Gregorian for me.
 
Haha we're jinxing each other here, Pete. I'm on Gregorian myself. Gosden's are in decent shape and Buick is always a plus in the saddle. I think the trip and ground will suit and he offers a great chance. I'd also fear that Producer won't get the full trip so that turns me away from him, despite his fantastic course form.
 
nahealai said:
Haha we're jinxing each other here, Pete. I'm on Gregorian myself. Gosden's are in decent shape and Buick is always a plus in the saddle.
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3-2-1 (doubled stake on this one). Dead right on Buick, another shit ride from Hughes.
 
Tricky one, the next. I like Vainglory but at 11, I feel his best days are behind him. I like the look of Hefner, who is only on his second start for Marco Botti. His last run was impressive from a poor draw at Chester and he'll have come on for that run. Three-time winner for Hannon last term so he has the quality. The trip should suit so I see plenty of positives for him, and at 9/1, he represents value.
 
I had some shrapnel hanging around the account so stuck a speculative bet on Takeitfromalady (40/1). I see this has run primarily over further for new yard and is down in trip today. It's best form for previous yard as been over 1m so today's trip should suit. Change of headgear today too so that may give him the squeak that's needed. Well handicapped and just may run a big race at a big price.
 
3x CD winners in Benzanno (I always keep an eye on Balding), Mister Music ( got 9 7 and Hughes) and Maverik (being backed). I think I'll just watch this but Maverik if pressed.
 
Just had a tiny punt on Gertrude Versed. Need some Buick magic at 33-1!
 
Jippy said:
Just had a tiny punt on Gertrude Versed. Need some Buick magic at 33-1!
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The Oaks has a tendency to throw up a surprise or two so I wouldn't discount it. I have gone for two outsiders (as such) in Banoffee (main bet) and The Lark (small e/w punt). Banoffee is very interesting as she has won both starts to date and Fallon/Morrison have 5 winners from 16 rides together. Morrison also has a good record at Epsom so I'm happy to side with them.

The Lark is one which I feel will go well from a large price. Bell's horses are running well and Spencer's style should suit the horse. I wouldn't be surprised to see it blazing home inside the final furlong.
 
Fav looks dodgy in the Oaks, beat nothing in a slow time. Moth has classic form and must be the way to go. Wouldn't put anyone off Liber Nauticus or Banoffee (nice performance at Chester).
 
I think I may have backed this one!

 
nahealai said:
I'll take the place on The Lark. i thought she was going to push for the win 2f out but Talent ran a scorcher inside the final furlong.
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Yeah I had the Lark e/w. Effing close at the end though- covered my earlier losses.
 
Right, just put the remainder of the account on Here Comes When in the next. As Pete alluded to above, Balding is more than capable of stripping winners. This horse comes here in decent form, is a progressive sort and is only one of two winners at this distance in the race. It defeated the favourite in this race two starts ago (albeit receiving weight) but it's progression since then suggests he can go in again today. I think 11/4 is value against a 2/1 favourite.
 
Hasopop has got a 15lb pull for a neck beating, a stone is a lot of improvement to find. I'm a few quid up so I'll go and do some work now and leave the last two races alone.
 
fecking Deal or No Deal is on now:mad: Wanted to watch the last race.
 
peterstorey said:
Hasopop has got a 15lb pull for a neck beating, a stone is a lot of improvement to find. I'm a few quid up so I'll go and do some work now and leave the last two races alone.
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Hope you went e/w!
 
That was nahealai, I was trying to put him off but stepped out myself. All good fun, may have another go tomorrow afternoon. Good luck at the track.
 
Yeah, ended up even for the day, but certainly made a dull afternoon in the office infinitely more enjoyable.
 
evra said:
I'm at the Derby tomorrow, what do the resident experts think of these selections?


1 Space Ship
2 Thunder Strike
3 SNA / Dunaden
4 Ajjaadd
5 Dawn Approach / Ocovango
6 John Biscuit
7 Dr Red Eye
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Dunno about the experts but first up I think Dawn Approach won't stay (see a somewhat more informed opinion here http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/ne...tching-saturdays-derby/1279873/international/

Going is now good with no rain forecast.

Early thoughts, will decide before the race.

1.35 Spaceship/Makafeh.
2.05 Riverboat Springs/Thunderstrike.
2.40 St Nick (one to watch)
3.15 Duke of Firenze

5x CD winners Captain Dunne, Long Awaited, Fair Value, Stone of Folca, Ajjaadd.

Fair Value and Stone of Folca like to hear their feet rattle.
Long Awaited hasn't had a run this season.
Captain Dunne hasn't won for a long time and is now 8 (both nahealai and I got burned by an 8yo and 10yo winning yesterday)
Ajjaaadd looks as if he'll find one too good at this level and has 9-2.

If Duke of Firenze reproduces last run at York should win.

Humidor has a touch of class but has plenty weight and not won for ages.
Ballesteros is classy but needs cut to show his best.

Derby: Chopin

Dawn Approach is doubtful stayer so next 4/5 in betting all value.

Ocovango's jockey puts me off.
Battle of Marengo pick of O'Briens
Libertarian very impressive at York but that's a wide flat track.

4.50 & 5.20 look too hard.
 
peterstorey said:
Derby: Chopin

Dawn Approach is doubtful stayer so next 4/5 in betting all value.

Ocovango's jockey puts me off.
Battle of Marengo pick of O'Briens
Libertarian very impressive at York but that's a wide flat track.
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It's a great race for a bet with the favourite not likely to stay. I'm on Ocovango ante-post for a nice touch as the second part of an each way double. The jock worries me as well. I remember backing Fabre's Subotica in the Coronation Cup back in the early 90s and it was his jockey's first ride on the course and he rode a nightmare. I'll be happy with a place.

I backed Battle of Marengo earlier in the week when he drifted on Betfair and also Mars each way.

Chopin is too short for me. I like under the radar foreign horses running over here but he's been a fancy selection for a while now and the value has gone.
 
I can't get around the value aspect of Salutation in the first today. The favourite in this race, High Troja, and Salutation opposed each other on their penultimate starts and Salutation got the better of High Troja by almost 3 lengths that day, from level weights too. Salutation had excuses for its last run (came 4th) when ground was soft and it ran over 1m4f, which isn't its optimum trip.

High Troja won its next time out which explains the huge difference in prices for today's race (High Troja 4/1fav and Salutation 14/1) but there is certain value to be had with Salutation. Back down in trip, ideal ground, wide draw and 2lbs lower in weights than the favourite, I am more than hopeful of a good run today to top up the betting kitty for the afternoon. It's definitely in with a each-way shout and at 14/1, I'm willing to find out.

Pasaka Boy is interesting as well as it has ran in many Class 1 events this season so connections must have a high opinion of him. Trainer has a decent record at Epsom too and considering he went for a Derby trial with this horse, tells you how they must feel about it and how they were targeting Epsom all season. I think 33/1 is a big price and it may sneak in for a place.
 
I just got a text about Nurse Ryan in the 3.05 at tramore. 2/1 on pp now but should do it.

Don't blame me, but this guy rarely gives tips and when he does they are normally pure decent.
 
nahealai said:
I can't get around the value aspect of Salutation in the first today. The favourite in this race, High Troja, and Salutation opposed each other on their penultimate starts and Salutation got the better of High Troja by almost 3 lengths that day, from level weights too. Salutation had excuses for its last run (came 4th) when ground was soft and it ran over 1m4f, which isn't its optimum trip.
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I don't understand why High Troja is fav, he's held by Makafeh too (prefer latter to Salutation, who I think is better on firmer ground - even if strictly on the book Mak has 4lb to find).
 
I agree, Pete, but on a pure value outlook, I think Salutation offers the best.

High Troja - 7/2fav
Makafeh - 5/1
Salutation - 14/1

We'll know more in ten minute's time, but I think something's amiss there.
 
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