Horse racing tips

Classy win for Minella Forfitness in the 4.50 there. Went to Aintree in great form and was well-treated by the handicapper on his handicap debut. I was hoping he'd go close but delighted with that. Makes up for two slow days on the betting front up to now. Four winners for Henderson today, magical stuff.
 
nahealai said:
Classy win for Minella Forfitness in the 4.50 there. Went to Aintree in great form and was well-treated by the handicapper on his handicap debut. I was hoping he'd go close but delighted with that. Makes up for two slow days on the betting front up to now. Four winners for Henderson today, magical stuff.
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You seem to know what you're talking about.

Any tips on what to look for when deciding who to bet on, other than 111111 in the form column? First ever race day for me tomorrow and never really touched the horses before!!!
 
K Stand Knut said:
You seem to know what you're talking about.

Any tips on what to look for when deciding who to bet on, other than 111111 in the form column? First ever race day for me tomorrow and never really touched the horses before!!!
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Nah mate, I'm just a newcomer 'round here! I like the geegees but wouldn't be as knowledgable nor passionate as lem8sh or Nearco, for example. Look back through the last page or two, I think both have posted their fancies for the big one tomorrow.

Good luck and enjoy the day! :)
 
Today was close to perfect. Only Master Of The Sea e/w didn't score and that was a near miss. Gonna have a little bonus on Molly's A Diva to celebrate. I know a dog called Molly so it makes perfect sense.
 
nahealai said:
Nah mate, I'm just a newcomer 'round here! I like the geegees but wouldn't be as knowledgable nor passionate as lem8sh or Nearco, for example. Look back through the last page or two, I think both have posted their fancies for the big one tomorrow.

Good luck and enjoy the day! :)
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No worries mate. cheers anyway.

Wasn't really asking about the Big One as that seems to be more about throwing a dart at the wall and seeing which horse you hit or just picking anything you like!!!
 
Judge Red said:
Today was close to perfect. Only Master Of The Sea e/w didn't score and that was a near miss. Gonna have a little bonus on Molly's A Diva to celebrate. I know a dog called Molly so it makes perfect sense.
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I wasn't going to play but with a winner in the last, I couldn't resist. Stuck two small each-way bets on Daly's two runners. I think they offer some decent each-way shouts at big money.
 
Well, that was a poor end to a great day that I should have ended earlier as planned. Betting on a whim doesn't work. Who knew?

Still plenty of money to throw at the big one tomorrow.
 
Judge Red said:
Well, that was a poor end to a great day that I should have ended earlier as planned. Betting on a whim doesn't work. Who knew?

Still plenty of money to throw at the big one tomorrow.
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As per my above question, any tips on what to look at when looking at racecards and deciding on who to pick?

Also, another question to anyone. At what point does an e/w bet become pointless? Had a few e/w 'tips' in the past, which came in but I lost money
 
Two Daly horses ran well and unlucky not to finish in the place money. I thought Kayfleur was running particularly well and was well in contention before the winner made her move.

Considered calling it a day until tomorrow but I noticed that Kieran Fallon has only one ride today (Life of Laughter @ 5/2, 7.00 Wolverhampton.) He also had only one ride yesterday too - for the same trainer, Wille Musson - which won readily at 6/1. I might have a pop at this to try strengthen the pot for tomorrow's racing. :D
 
K Stand Knut said:
Also, another question to anyone. At what point does an e/w bet become pointless? Had a few e/w 'tips' in the past, which came in but I lost money
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I generally don't back anything each-way if it's less than 5/1. Most firms now only pay 1/5 odds for a placed horse so if your selection was 5/1, you'd get evens (1/1) for it.

£5 each-way bet = £10 stake (£5 win bet and £5 place bet)
Horse finishes 3rd = 1/5 of odds = evens (1/1)
Payout = £5 winnings + £5 each-way stake back = £10 bet returns.

Sorry of that's confusing, but it makes sense in my head. :lol:
 
nahealai said:
Considered calling it a day until tomorrow but I noticed that Kieran Fallon has only one ride today (Life of Laughter @ 5/2, 7.00 Wolverhampton.) He also had only one ride yesterday too - for the same trainer, Wille Musson - which won readily at 6/1. I might have a pop at this to try strengthen the pot for tomorrow's racing. :D
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Fallon just rode a spare there in the first at Wolverhampton, won at 9/2.

Not sure whether to use that as a good omen or not now!
 
Most of the online bookies I go with offer quarter odds e/w for a placed finish, but, yeah, as a rule I like my e/w bets to be at least 7/1. For instance, backing Cue Card e/w today would have got you a lot more than backing Sprinter Sacre to win (unless you took Boylesports up on their Evens offer!).

Bet Victor are paying out for six places on their e/w bets tomorrow so that's who I'm going with. I've been siding with Seabass for weeks and can't back out now.

I'll be looking for a longer shot as well. My heart wants to go with one of Fergie's horses even though I was just reminded by Molly's A Diva to NEVER bet on a whim!

As for any other tips on who to pick, William Hill is good for checking out the Racing Post's guides and tips from fellow punters. I'll be watching the Morning Line on Channel 4 tomorrow morning and checking out the tipsters on Twitter for further inspiration.

Picking a winner for the Grand National takes a LOT of good fortune. I think I'm even going to have to go e/w on Seabass at 11/1.
 
nahealai said:
I generally don't back anything each-way if it's less than 5/1. Most firms now only pay 1/5 odds for a placed horse so if your selection was 5/1, you'd get evens (1/1) for it.

£5 each-way bet = £10 stake (£5 win bet and £5 place bet)
Horse finishes 3rd = 1/5 of odds = evens (1/1)
Payout = £5 winnings + £5 each-way stake back = £10 bet returns.

Sorry of that's confusing, but it makes sense in my head. :lol:
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No, that's great mate. Thanks!!! Makes sense now but got a limit on my betting budget tomorrow and need to work out the best way of making it go as far as possible.

Decided on:
Cappa Bleu
Teaforthree
Chicago Grey and
Across the Bay!!!

Doubt I'll come back a millionaire but it's all good for shits and giggles
 
I did reasonably well today, got my £33 up to £98, a few smaller bets and a good treble of My Tent, Sprinter and Dynaste. Also did a double of Fishers Cross and Sprinter.

Hopefully have a decent day tomorrow and have more money than I started with. Will be good to actually watch the races instead of reading text on my phone.

Anyones thoughts on Imperial Commander and Cappa Bleu?
 
Guys I need some help for some of you in the know.

In a sweepstake tomorrow at work for all the race card. Winner is based on the best each way results from the selections.

Its against a load of Leeds fans as well, give me some inspiration I know feck all about horses :lol:
 
My portfolio for the race:

Grand National:
Teaforthree £20w @ 20/1
Chicago Grey £10w @ 47/1
Imperial Commander £10ew @ 28/1
Cappa Bleu £20w @ 14/1
Roberto Goldback £7.50ew @ 33/1
Join Together £15 to place @ 56/10
 
Nearco said:
My portfolio for the race:

Grand National:
Teaforthree £20w @ 20/1
Chicago Grey £10w @ 47/1
Imperial Commander £10ew @ 28/1
Cappa Bleu £20w @ 14/1
Roberto Goldback £7.50ew @ 33/1
Join Together £15 to place @ 56/10
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What's the difference between e/w and to place?
 
I can't turn down Tarquinius at 100/1. Fancy it to finish and that's half the battle won! Wouldn't be surprised to see the starting price shorter than 50/1. Already down to 66/1 at William Hill. Still 100/1 at Bet Victor for six places. Delicious.

The favourites are shortening a fair bit now now. Both Seabass and On His Own down to 8/1 with many bookies.
 
Keep these tips coming today lads.
 
I'm seeing talk grow and odds shorten for Harry The Viking. I'm in! I said I wouldn't do it but I'm backing a Fergie horse!

Gladiators ready!

Seabass
Chicago Grey (e/w)
Harry The Viking (e/w)
Always Waining (e/w)
Tarquinius (e/w)

If they all somehow manage to finish in the first six, I'm buying Ronaldo.
 
Tea for Three - 14/1
Cappa Bleu is my favourite at 12/1
Had a couple of quid on Oscar Time e/w at 50's

Got Sunnyhillboy on the sweep in work too.

Tea For Three and Seabass in particular are coming in fast, but McCoy's ride Colbert Station is drifting out.
 
I wouldn't worry about horse's drifting/shortening in the market at all to be honest lads. It's the most heavily-backed horse race of the year and alone there's millions being bet by people who only back one horse race per year. Seabass for instance will take a lot of money from female punters simply for the Katie Walsh factor.

It's the one race of the year where even seasoned punters will back upwards of three horses in the race. Crazy really for what is only a Grade 3 chase! What a spectacle it is though, I'm looking forward to it. I haven't finalised my selections yet, but it's sure to be a five-band army like the rest of us! :lol:
 
P.S I am a big fan of the trends system in attempting to dissect a race and the main trends for the Grand National are fairly conclusive going back over the past 15 years (I've seen some of these stats posted elsewhere but used them to research the race myself):

  • Won over 3m
  • Aged 8-11
  • Official rating 135+
  • 3 - 6 runs in the season (majority also ran within last 50 days)
  • Won a class 1 chase (possibly include a class 2 winner)
  • No more than two falls in career

Two stand-out horses that fit all of the above are Chicago Grey and Forpadytheplasterer. Rare Bob, Across The Bay, Teaforthree and Joncol also come close to the trends and I cannot discount them as the National can be pure pot luck. In saying this, Neptune Collonges had more than two career falls and only ran once last season and went on to win this last year so the trends can be beaten.

It's not feasible to back seven horses in one race so I'll try to pick two/three selections to add to Chicago Grey and Forpadytheplasterer before the off. Best of luck to everyone else with their selections.
 
I've stuck a few quid on Imperial Commander, and some on Colbert Station EW. Will probably back another closer to the time, depending on how my bets go before The National.
 
Cheers for the tips Nahealai.

If you come up with anything else for the other races post them in here if you can.

Best of luck!
 
I'm on teaforthree and Harry the Viking. If my horses live to see tomorrow this time, I'll consider it a success.
 
I fancy Eduard here in the first. Ultra consistent and sound jumper. Question marks over some others in the race and think Eduard can nick in to score.
 
I remember when I was working at Aintree, we were on the track for the actual National, and the winner walked right past me then did the biggest shit you've ever seen right in front of my mate who wasn't allowed to move.

So my tip is....don't work at the National.
 
Selection Selection Details Result
1
Horse Racing
AINTREE
14:15 MAGHULL NOVICES' CHASE 2m
6th of Apr 2013 2:15 pm
Win or E/W
1/4 places 1,2
Special Tiara @ 28/1 (GP)

very small stakes though...
 
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