Horse racing tips

lem8sh said:
News that I've know for a while but it's finally in the public domain today :(

McNamara suffers paralysis after fall
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My thoughts are with him, his family, and friends. :(

Another Jim Diamond -- like lem8sh I'll try and just ignore your horrible comment based on a total lack of knowledge about racing, both regarding facts and feelings, but still:

'You speak evil of that which is fair beyond the reach of your thought, and only little wit can excuse you.'
 
I'm going tomorrow and the feature this year is how strong the Racing on Thursday and Friday is these days. It isn't all about the one race anymore and the Melling Chase on Friday is the race of the season never mind the week.

2.30 The price differential between the main two in this, Silviniaco Conti and First Lieutenant, is excessive. I'd go 13/8..9/4 rather than 10/11..7/2. The latter is turning into a bit (a lot) of a bridesmaid. He seems to find stayers outstaying him over three miles+ and speedballs having too many gears for him over shorter. However, three miles on Aintree's flat track with decent ground the order of the day could really be his optimum conditions and on lines of form through Bob's Worth and Long Run I don't think there is a whole lot between the two market leaders. The others look outclassed.

3.05 As good as The New One looked in the Neptune things did go his way at Cheltenham. Pont Alexandre only set a modest pace and the Twiston-Davies animal out speeded horses who are essentially staying chasers in the making to win impressively. He's a fine prospect over timber and fences but tomorrow's Aintree Hurdle is a whole new ball game. I'm completely against the horse at a ridiculously cramped 3/1 and am taking him on with Grandouet and Thousand Stars. The former has never tackled two and a half miles before but his win in the International at Cheltenham in late 2011 over 17f was achieved against the high class Overturn who set a good pace that day. The extra three furlongs this race entails should be well within range, especially on an easier track. Grandouet is also a fresh horse who his trainer admitted in early March he would have liked more time with to get right. That freshness also applies to Thousand Stars who has been runner up twice in this but crucially this time around bypassed Cheltenham for this objective. Simply put he's a little under the radar and is overpriced at 10/1. The freshness angle cannot be overstated in this race. Countrywide Flame has been on the go since the summer and The New One has had three tough races since the turn of the year. My two selections both look overpriced and I see them both placing.
 
My main angle when Aintree comes around is taking on those who have hard races at Cheltenham and with only 3 weeks between both festivals I'll be sticking to it again this year.

2:00 Irish Saint for me, has bit of work to do to reverse form with Rolling Star but the flat track should helo not to mention he should be fresher having bypassed the festival.

2.30 Quite fancy Quito De La Roque here, has winning and placed form at this meeting over the past two years and the hard race First Lieutenant had at Cheltenham puts me slightly off him while Silviniaco is much too short for me.

Aintree hurdle is a cracker but I think Grandouet will have too many gears for them, I love The New One though and I'm excited to see how he does against the older stars.
 
lem8sh said:
2.30 Quite fancy Quito De La Roque here, has winning and placed form at this meeting over the past two years and the hard race First Lieutenant had at Cheltenham puts me slightly off him while Silviniaco is much too short for me.
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That is my one concern with First Lieutenant but his price is too big so I had to go in. Respect Quito but he'll need both the big two to perform well below their best and I can't see it really.
 
I've registered with Boylesports to take them up on their introductory offer of Evens for Sprinter Sacre tomorrow. What can possibly go wrong?

Bottle will be lost, more bets will be placed, but for today's races I'm currently going with:

14:00 Rolling Star
14:30 First Lieutenant
15:05 The New One

I'm also going e/w on Oscar Whisky in the 15:05 because, quite frankly, the sonofabitch owes me after that woeful Cheltenham display.
 
Well here's my horses for the day, need £35 to break even.


x2 - Captain Conan & Rolling Star - £10 bet - £98 potential returns

14:00 Rolling Star - £5 @ 3/1

14:30 First Lieutenant - £2.50 ew @ 4/1

15:05 - Oscar Whisky - £2.50 ew @ 7/1

x2 14:30 Silvi Conti @ Evens & 16:15 Rebel Rebellion @7/1 £5 gets £80 back

16:15 Rebel Rebellion @7/1 - £2.50 ew
 
2.00 Flaxen Flare 5/1 (winner of the Fred Winter and stable in fine form of late)
2.30 Quito De La Roque 10/1 (CD winner and 9 year olds have a good record in this race)
4.15 Viva Colonia 20/1 (badly hampered last time out but has won over 20f twice previous to that. Trainer/jockey combination had a winner at Wetherby yesterday so hoping they can continue today)
 
Good win for King and Hutchinson in the first there. Tellingly, maybe, L'Unique skipped Chelthenham. Us punters maybe should have taken note of that more carefully...
 
Chasing my money back already, predictably enough. This is how it went everyday at Cheltenham for me but I always found a horse to save each day in the end.
 
Dunno if there are highlights, maybe on the racing channel but it's a subscription only channel.

I started off pretty shit today but managed to get myself to only being £3.40 down for the day.

Contains some race results:

Stuck my last £12 on Captain Conan and then did a 60p each way (Crazy I know!) on First Fandango @40/1 to get myself almost level

Hopefully some better luck tomorrow.
 
I'm hoping for and expecting a better day for the favourites tomorrow. Jaws will hit floors if Sprinter Sacre lets us down. Also can't see past Your Tent Or Mine, Dynaste and At Fishers Cross.

So all them and some e/w nibbles at Master Of The Sea and Cue Card for me.

It all seems so easy until your horses don't come in!

I am done with Oscar Whisky for life.
 
Judge Red said:
I'm hoping for and expecting a better day for the favourites tomorrow. Jaws will hit floors if Sprinter Sacre lets us down. Also can't see past Your Tent Or Mine, Dynaste and At Fishers Cross.

So all them and some e/w nibbles at Master Of The Sea and Cue Card for me.

It's all seems so easy until your horses don't come in!

I am done with Oscar Whisky for life.
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Wouldn't be banking on either.
 
Only bet today is Barbatos each way in the 4.50. I backed him at the Festival where he was tenderly ridden out the back without ever being put in the race. His form as a novice suggests he's very well handicapped off 137.


The Melling is a watching race only. Should be immense.
 
Nearco said:
The Melling is a watching race only. Should be immense.
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Sprinter Sacre should win handily, and it would be great to see him put 10 lengths or more on the rest of the field. However, he hasn't raced over this trip before, and was actually beaten over 2m3f over hurdles too. I also feel Flemenstar's form cannot be ignored, and with him being back to his optimum trip, I fancy him to take the runners-up spot. I cannot find any "betting without" market online at the moment, but I'd be interested in Flemenstar here.

2.30 Rocky Creek 5/2 (dodged Cheltenham for a crack at this and has to be respected. Super Duty the big danger but McCain's horses aren't in great form at the moment. Nicholls won this race last year with Silviniaco Conti having dodged Cheltenham too so I'm going to respect that information again)
3.05 Flemenstar ("betting without fav" market. Small outright win bet too. 7/1)
3.40 Tartak 14/1 (well handicapped now - over 20lbs better off now than in this race last year, where he burst a blood vessel mid-race - and has good course form. Also has been placed in 4 of last 5 starts)
4.50 Minella Forfitness 10/1 (majority of the horses in this race ran in various races at Cheltenham and I wonder about their mindset having to be fit for two gruelling festivals in such a short timeframe. Minella Forfitness skipped Cheltenham and is well handicapped here. Twice won at up to 19f - beat two horses at Doncaster back in February and both have gone on to score since. Very interesting on handicap debut)

Will do an each-way Lucky 15 for entertainment too.
 
BetFred offered a special of evens for a Your Tent Or Mine/Sprinter Sacre double today. No bet limit either. It will be a costly afternoon for them should SS hack home like expected...
 
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