Thanks
German elections on Sunday 23rd February 2025
- Thread starter VorZakone
- Start date
Black Forrest Gateau, no question.
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Nah, but I posted them here so there's that. (I'm also not so sure what you meant since they are both projections, one from ARD and another from ZDF. Why exactly I posted one in spoilers and the other not, I have no idea).You work for ZDF?!
Ah, I misunderstood then
I thought the first were the earliest numbers and the latter was projections from a few days ago or something.
So I guess a lot now depends on whether FDP and BSW make it through the 5% threshold and that would change arithmetics a lot, right? How does the match change if neither makes it to the parliament and who's hoping for what? For all my disgust at 'liberals' should we wish FDP makes it but obviously BSW doesn't?
That's fairAh, I misunderstood then
I thought the first were the earliest numbers and the latter was projections from a few days ago or something.
Not as much as one might think. If there are no major surprises, even with the FDP and BSW falling below 5% SPD-Greens-Left has no majority. It could decide whether Union-Greens alone is possible or whether they have to go for a big coalition. Worst case for the Union is that they have to form a government with SPD and Greens. The wildest scenario would be that one of their two candidates steps back and together they could have more votes than Merz, meaning Scholz or Habeck could become chancellor but the outrage from the conservatives would be gigantic.
Merz as chancellor is pretty much save. The only question is who becomes the junior partner(s).
Did AfD do better or worse than expected?
And should we consider these good results for those who were worried about the rise of the far right?
Same as their polls pretty much. And yes.
Bit worse. Saw very few polls in which they were below 20%, most often between 21% and 23%. 84% show up rate is also the highest since 1990 which is very good.
FDP getting in would be bad, and can't believe BSW is actually that close
Most polls had the AfD slightly above 20%. So this is a small but pleasant surprise.
But it’s still a bad sign that they are getting roughly 20% of votes.
The one thing that encourages me is the amount of people who are completely against the AfD in any way. There is actual resistance towards them and this won’t go away. There are many people who take never again seriously. I remain pessimistic about all coming elections, until we start rediscovering socially conscious politics. But there are encouraging signs coming from those results. The left receiving 8,5% of the votes is giving me some hope. We need a populist left. Badly. We need them to force the greens and SPD further to the left.
Thank you, all.
I wonder whether the interventions of Musk and Vance a bit backfired. Either way, finally some good news. Thank you, Germany.
Also, what coalitions you envision?
I wonder whether the interventions of Musk and Vance a bit backfired. Either way, finally some good news. Thank you, Germany.
Also, what coalitions you envision?
To offer even more hope: there were unprecedented attempts to interfere with this election. The richest man in the world tried everything he could to further the agenda of the AfD. Russia did whatever they could to help the AfD. Considering the amount of money and other resources going to the AfD, it’s astonishing to me to see such a huge turnout of people determined to prevent the AfD from getting into power.
So it seems like Germany are halting the spread of fascism in Europe. Thank you to Germany. The first round of moderately priced pale British piss water ales are on me.
Both barely getting in according to ZDF’s first Hochrechnung…
Good on you, Germany!
Been to the country a few times and have found the people so very friendly on every occasion. And how can you go wrong when there’s good sausage and beer? The very definition of win-win.
Been to the country a few times and have found the people so very friendly on every occasion. And how can you go wrong when there’s good sausage and beer? The very definition of win-win.
How fast do you expect them to work that out?
I mean, we had our election on September 29th and still don't have a government.
At least fecking Kickl blew his chance.Before people sing our praises, we still gave a nazi party 20%. It could've been worse, but it's not a result to be happy about
Well it certainly did go well in their own base but it also possibly helped the other parties mobilise more voters against AFD… Very high turnout.
Decent result all things considered. Was afraid a large turnout would be good for the scum.
CDU/SPD most likely if it's enough. If not, Greens or FDP might enter the equation
Yeah given that turnout is at 84%, the 20% converts to pretty big numbers in terms of voting population.
A Nazi party supported by Musk and the USA, which would probably sway some voters. I'm impressed with how little it moved the dial in that party's favour - look at the UK as an example of a country filled with wankers.
You're right though, it's deeply troubling. But the way the world's going it's nice to see the far right movement slowed down somewhat.
There's every opportunity for it to be a passing fad. The Onus is on the new government to do something to try and make people's lives better. I wish that the UK govt could see this.
AfD polls were actually consistent before Musk entered the fray so there’s not much to suggest he helped boost their numbers, maybe even the opposite, ever so slightly.
Sadly, Merz is basically neoliberalism in human form.
How fast do you expect them to work that out?
I mean, we had our election on September 29th and still don't have a government.
Their programmes are so far apart, it could take a long time, especially since the last months were pretty rough. The Union is closer to the AfD and the FDP ideologically while SPD, Greens and Left are the other side of the spectrum. Merz for instance promised 100bn in tax cuts, a recent study suggested that if the programme is seen through as planned then 50bn go to the richest 10%, 28bn to the richest 1% and 12bn to the poorest 50%. The others wanted to do the exact opposite.
Let's be real, the result sucks but it announced itself for months.
Yeah, it's one of those things where expectations mask the reality a bit, given they just about doubled their support and the conservatives have begun to flirt with the idea.
Still, I'll take the brief reprieve.
Germany has been right wing as long as I can remember.
Interesting dynamics, and that was my thinking leading up to today. 84% turnout is great to see.
Thank you. We need more of this type of partnership. Not the extremest on either side.
Grim
If the next German coalition cannot improve the lives of German citizens then the AfD will only grow the next time.
AfD's results thus far have been according to polling expectations so I guess that's "good news" instead of a sudden surge of silent voters on election day. But German politics can not be complacent.
AfD's results thus far have been according to polling expectations so I guess that's "good news" instead of a sudden surge of silent voters on election day. But German politics can not be complacent.
So CDU-SPD- Green coalition?
Yep. But he should be relatively reasonable in regards to his foreign policies. That’s something.Grim
As it stands right now, CDU/SPD is enough
Maybe, maybe not. It's really too early to call that as we don't know if FDP and/or BSW make it above the 5% threshold or not.
If both fail CDU/SPD would already be enough.
Loving it. I remember the talks when Wagenknecht split up and how the left party would be pretty much irrelevant and now look at that beauty.
Both parties also the ones that are massively centered around one single (cnutish) person, and both hopefully failing.