Geopolitics

I find it ironic that countries that are dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia are telling others dependent on Russian oil/gas to stop buying from Russia. How about you stop buying from Saudi as well then?
 
I find it ironic that countries that are dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia are telling others dependent on Russian oil/gas to stop buying from Russia. How about you stop buying from Saudi as well then?

How is it ironic?
 
I find it ironic that countries that are dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia are telling others dependent on Russian oil/gas to stop buying from Russia. How about you stop buying from Saudi as well then?

Don’t think many Western states are dependent on Saudi oil these days, certainly not to the same degree as some European states are on Russia. Saudi Arabia exports most of its oil to East Asian states.
 
Don’t think many Western states are dependent on Saudi oil these days, certainly not to the same degree as some European states are on Russia. Saudi Arabia exports most of its oil to East Asian states.

That's true, US has 5.5% of Saudi oil exports while Germany would have a higher share in Russian gas. But that is also because US produces a lot of oil themselves, that would beg the question why they even need to contribute Saudi when they can produce themselves (don't know of Germany's ability to produce oil and natural gas), and this isn't considering the miltary support they already provide Saudis. It's easy for the US to say to another country without the capability to produce themselves that they should stop accepting it from Russia.

And also I think Germany is putting forward a plan to vastly reduce their depedency on Russian energy (though I think that involves taking it from the Middle East), but it will take time to implement it.
 
That's true, US has 5.5% of Saudi oil exports while Germany would have a higher share in Russian gas. But that is also because US produces a lot of oil themselves, that would beg the question why they even need to contribute Saudi when they can produce themselves (don't know of Germany's ability to produce oil and natural gas), and this isn't considering the miltary support they already provide Saudis. It's easy for the US to say to another country without the capability to produce themselves that they should stop accepting it from Russia.

And also I think Germany is putting forward a plan to vastly reduce their depedency on Russian energy (though I think that involves taking it from the Middle East), but it will take time to implement it.
Smaller share should make it even easier to get rid of that share. Yet they don't.

Why do the US care about atrocities in Ukraine, but not in Yemen? Because they are corrupted by Saudi money. It's a quite flawless logic...
 
I think that these two points have been answered repeatedly. But I will answer them again. Please tell me where exactly your disagreement is.

1. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe. If they cut all ties with Russia, then all the other countries will have to follow. And Germany will make sure of that! There is no point focusing on smaller countries.

Cutting all ties with Russia right now will obviously have an impact on the German economy. How big an impact? I don't know. I have read articles that say 6% down, I have read articles that say GDP will be 2% down. For comparison, I have read that coronavirus had an impact of minus 4%. Is this significant? Yes it is. Is it more important than what is happening in Ukraine? Of course it isn't.

Do we need to discuss this further? Germany should have cut all ties two months ago. Everyone should tell them this again and again, till they do it! There are many European politicians who try to send this message, for example this is from April 22:

Poland 'indignant' over sanctions stance of Hungary and Germany says PM
https://www.thefirstnews.com/articl...s-stance-of-hungary-and-germany-says-pm-29858



2. This is a war, words are not important, actions are important. So far, Germany is helping Putin more than it is helping Ukraine. That is a fact. You also agree that Germany is doing too little. The question is why is this happening? In my opinion, one terrible truth is that the German political system is deeply corrupted by Russian money. Here is what the NY times article says, I have linked the article above, I am linking it again here, please read it:

“Schröder is the tip of the iceberg,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, a former ambassador to the United States and veteran diplomat. “But there is a whole iceberg below him.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/23/world/europe/schroder-germany-russia-gas-ukraine-war-energy.html

Does anyone really think that the Russians have paid one and only one German politician? Of course, I don't have lists of who got what money. But I think it is quite obvious that other German politicians made money directly or indirectly. There were repeated warnings from the US and from other European countries that dependency on Russian oil is not a good idea. There were warnings from some German politicians too. All that was ignored by SPD and CDU. The fact is that now Ukrainians are paying the price. Why should we accept that Germany has zero responsibility to cut all help to Putin? Not in the future, it should happen right now! And we should repeat that till it happens.

https://www.express.co.uk/comment/e...sky-Putin-germany-russian-gas-oil-EU-payments

EU and Germany have Ukrainian blood on their hands, says PAUL BALDWIN

JOE Biden has just announced a massive $800 MILLION package of military aid to Ukraine which includes the heavy weapons, Howitzers, and attack helicopters President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been begging for. And this seems fantastic news.

Fantastic news, that is, until you realise $800 MILLION is almost exactly the same sum EU countries have paid in blood money to President Putin on every single day of this awful war.
Sure, as a big country, Germany has a bigger responsibility to the world. But that doesn't absolve other countries from doing what they can - including places like Greece and the Netherlands. That'd be the kind of cop-out German leaders are using It's a cheap argument.

But in any case, the issue isn't that argument, it's where you go afterwards. For example, that Germany is 'again' supporting facism. That's just a cheap WWII stab that has no relevance to current German politics. Or taking the expression 'corrupted by Russian money' literally and suggesting current German politicans are actually receiving money from Russia.

For that last point: I read that NY Times article, but despite its headline, it's all about Schröder and there is no evidence for other important German figure lobbying for Russia. The only wider point you could take there, is that people didn't see the danger of dealing with Russia, and only considereded the money to be made (and maybe that Russia would change if more interwoven with the EU economy). But that's not unique to Russia; I read an article in a Dutch newspaper at the start of the invasion making the exact same point about the Netherlands, describing how many politicians and business leaders were all too happy to work with Russia and make lots of money, ignoring everything Putin was doing in Georgia and elsewhere.
Today, by the editorial board of Wall Street Journal.


Where Are Germany’s Weapons for Ukraine?

Berlin slow-rolls heavy arms deliveries out of confusion, or fear of Russian retaliation.

By The Editorial Board
Updated April 25, 2022 7:02 pm ET

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised Germans and their allies a transformation in Berlin’s approach to foreign and defense policy. As voters and North Atlantic Treaty partners try to assess whether he meant it, a question looms: Where are Germany’s arms for Ukraine?

The snail-like pace of weapons shipments to Kyiv’s military is becoming a political scandal in Germany. Berlin has improved on its laughable offer of 5,000 helmets, extended in mid-February before Vladimir Putin started his invasion. Germany has since shipped an assortment of anti-aircraft missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, machine guns, mines and the like.

But Mr. Scholz is reluctant to send tanks, armored vehicles and other heavy equipment Ukraine needs to fight the prolonged campaign this war is becoming. The tabloid Bild reported last week that Mr. Scholz had excluded such weapons from a proposal for German manufacturers to ship new arms directly to Ukraine at Berlin’s expense. Berlin has also refused to send older weapons.

Instead, Berlin belatedly struck a deal last week under which NATO ally Slovenia will supply Ukraine with Soviet-era T-72 tanks, which Germany will replace with more up-to-date equipment. Yet deliveries directly from Germany are still off the table.

Political expediency doesn’t explain the foot-dragging, which is becoming a major controversy in Berlin. Leading members of the Green and Free Democratic parties, which govern in a coalition with Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), are vociferous advocates for heavy weapons. So are many members of the opposition Christian Democrats. The polls say sending heavy weapons to Ukraine also enjoys support with a German public shaken (for now) out of its traditional pacifism by Mr. Putin’s invasion.

Ostensibly practical concerns also ring hollow. Mr. Scholz’s administration says it worries that sending more of its heavy weapons would degrade Germany’s military capacity. This might be true given Berlin’s chronic underinvestment in its military over many years, but it’s also irrelevant. Germany and its NATO allies aren’t currently under threat of invasion as Ukraine is, retired Gen. Hans-Lothar Domröse told public broadcaster WDR Thursday. The weapons Berlin sends to Ukraine today could be replaced within months.

It’s possible Mr. Scholz doesn’t think Ukraine can win. That view in Washington explained early delays in support from the U.S., although the Biden Administration now appears to recognize a Russian victory—or ceasefire favorable to Russia—isn’t certain.

No matter the reason, these delays are an embarrassment for a chancellor who promised more support for Ukraine and whose voters expect it. Mr. Scholz is undermining his credibility with NATO allies. Heavy-weapons shipments would send a strong deterrent signal to Mr. Putin that Germany’s strategic transformation regarding Russia and his recommitment to NATO are serious. Mr. Scholz’s new foreign policy starts with tanks for Ukraine.
For what it's worth, this exactly confirms what posters like @stefan92 keep saying. The problem is with the SPD leadership, and Scholz specifically; not with Germany as a whole.

For a wider perspective, I wouldn't overestimate what the US is doing either. I would suggest that the US are not so much trying to help Ukraine (although that's of course the image they're to project) but to cripple Russia. I wouldn't doubt that some US political and military leaders would happily prolong the war, cause the longer it continues, the more the sanctions and the loss of lives and equipment will hurt Russia (while western support means that Ukraine won't run out of money or equipment while they're fighting Russia).
 
For a wider perspective, I wouldn't overestimate what the US is doing either. I would suggest that the US are not so much trying to help Ukraine (although that's of course the image they're to project) but to cripple Russia. I wouldn't doubt that some US political and military leaders would happily prolong the war, cause the longer it continues, the more the sanctions and the loss of lives and equipment will hurt Russia (while western support means that Ukraine won't run out of money or equipment while they're fighting Russia).
When the war started the US proposed a stop of Russian gas imports to Germany, which could be replaced by US LNG imports. That will be more expensive and therefore not in Germany's interest.

These claims where made while the US still didn't stop importing Russian oil (they have done that by now, but much later than their suggestions were made to Germany). This effectively created the image that the US don't care about Ukraine, but just want to get rid of an economic rival.

This fits your hypothesis quite well and is also a factor why support for sanctions against Russia isn't overwhelming in Germany.

Russia claims that Ukraine is just fighting on behalf of the US and such events seem to support that claim.
 
I find it ironic that countries that are dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia are telling others dependent on Russian oil/gas to stop buying from Russia. How about you stop buying from Saudi as well then?

The difference is that Saudi Arabia is not going to invade Europe. The countries that may get invaded by Saudi Arabia should not buy oil from Saudi Arabia. This war is happening because Ukraine wanted to join the European Union.
 
When the war started the US proposed a stop of Russian gas imports to Germany, which could be replaced by US LNG imports. That will be more expensive and therefore not in Germany's interest.

These claims where made while the US still didn't stop importing Russian oil (they have done that by now, but much later than their suggestions were made to Germany). This effectively created the image that the US don't care about Ukraine, but just want to get rid of an economic rival.

This fits your hypothesis quite well and is also a factor why support for sanctions against Russia isn't overwhelming in Germany.

Russia claims that Ukraine is just fighting on behalf of the US and such events seem to support that claim.
Yeah, I meant to add that actually. It's easy for the US and Canada to advocate for a stop to imports of Russian oil and gas, because (1) they barely use any themselves, and (2) they export oil and gas and can thus look forward to an increased customer base.

I would say that Ukraine obviously fights for itself; but that all outside support is much more complicated than 'help Ukraine'.
 
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The difference is that Saudi Arabia is not going to invade Europe. The countries that may get invaded by Saudi Arabia should not buy oil from Saudi Arabia. This war is happening because Ukraine wanted to join the European Union.
By your logic Germany could keep on buying Russian gas/oil, as we will surely not be invaded by them.
 

This article rubs me the wrong way. This isn't "Germany", this is the city state of Berlin, which is a disgrace regarding organisation and money wasting.

And what happened there: Berlin has some centers for refugees where organisational stuff should be done and then they should be moved on to permanent/long term accomodations. Berlin failed to do that, let the Afghans stay in these arrival centers and now has a problem how to deal with arriving Ukrainians.

So the fault isn't that the Afghans have to leave those centers, the fault is that they had to stay so long that they got used to live there.
 
I posted this in the invasion thread, but maybe here is a better fit:

I decided to waste some time by looking into the supposed funding of the Russian war machine. I did it by looking at imports of "Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products" according to the United Nations COMTRADE database, adjusted for population sourced from a simple Google search, meaning it's per capita. The results are normalised, with the Big Bad Germany as 1. Countries included are EU members, EFTA members (excluding Lichtenstein because of lack of data), and a few other countries that are relevant either because of proximity or as world players. (Edit: I did not include countries friendly to Russia, like Belarus, Serbia, China or India. Turkey is borderline, I guess.)

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Germany Is Displacing Afghan Refugees to Make Way for Ukrainians
Hundreds of Afghans who fled the Taliban have been evicted as an even larger flood of Ukrainian war refugees arrive.

BERLIN—The knock on the door came when Parwana Amiri was having breakfast with her husband and two small daughters. An unexpected visitor—a social worker—stood outside, bringing even more unexpected news: The family would have to clear out their home for newly arriving refugees from Ukraine. No questions, no negotiation, just “out within 24 hours,” they were told.

Amiri, 33, a social activist and refugee from Afghanistan who arrived in Berlin in late January, fleeing the Taliban with the help of the German government after receiving threats for two consecutive years, is one of hundreds of Afghans across Germany who have been shunted aside to make way for newly arrived refugees from Ukraine. She requested to use a pseudonym to protect her security.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/20/germany-refugee-policy-afghanistan-ukraine/
 
Germany Is Displacing Afghan Refugees to Make Way for Ukrainians
Hundreds of Afghans who fled the Taliban have been evicted as an even larger flood of Ukrainian war refugees arrive.



https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/20/germany-refugee-policy-afghanistan-ukraine/
It's a story that's been discussed here on Tuesday already. Tl;dr:
The city of Berlin has refugee arrival centers, where refugees should stay short term to get paper work done and wait for a permanent accommodation. Berlin failed to take care of the latter and instead let them stay in the centers, and now those are needed for arriving Ukrainians, so the Afghans have to finally move on, like they should have months ago.

Berlin is a failed state, it doesn't treat it's own citizens much better, so please don't make this about the whole of Germany or about racism or anything, Berlin is just blessed with the most incompetent city government you can imagine.
 
It's a story that's been discussed here on Tuesday already. Tl;dr:
The city of Berlin has refugee arrival centers, where refugees should stay short term to get paper work done and wait for a permanent accommodation. Berlin failed to take care of the latter and instead let them stay in the centers, and now those are needed for arriving Ukrainians, so the Afghans have to finally move on, like they should have months ago.

Berlin is a failed state, it doesn't treat it's own citizens much better, so please don't make this about the whole of Germany or about racism or anything, Berlin is just blessed with the most incompetent city government you can imagine.

In Munich, I think they've done a better job in housing and releasing Afghan/Syrian refugees over the years. Haven't heard much concern from people in that regard, which is more well considering a lot of refugees came here during the Syrian civil war.
 
"Russia's actions are criminal but the west is not innocent".

This is my favourite news outlet presently and the most unbiased.

 
"Russia's actions are criminal but the west is not innocent".

This is my favourite news outlet presently and the most unbiased.



I feel that the serious news outlets like the BBC, Deutsche Welle etc have done a great job reporting on this war in a neutral way. I just tend to avoid any news from social media like twitter, youtube etc. People smack a Ukranian flag in their name and suddenly I'm supposed to believe them. There is so much propaganda from both sides in this war, like in every war.
 
"Russia's actions are criminal but the west is not innocent".

This is my favourite news outlet presently and the most unbiased.



Think the quoted post should be moved to the Geopolitics thread as it's not relevant to the current conflict and at worst is Russian disinformation. Plenty of evidence is out there now (Russian actions and shifting narratives) to prove the points brought up in the video are utter nonsense.
 
"Russia's actions are criminal but the west is not innocent".

This is my favourite news outlet presently and the most unbiased.


Let me ask you this: don't you think the invasion has legitimized NATO-membership of for example the Baltic states? Or do you consider all their fears about Russian military action to be irrational?

And second: if your counter-argument is "stay neutral and Russia won't attack you". Do you not have a problem with that particular argument? Why would countries stay neutral if economic integration with the West will make them richer and provide a better life for their citizens?
 
Stubb is a former PM of Finland, a long time advocate of NATO membership and deeper EU integration. This is a very insightful thread on conversations he’s had with colleagues outside our “western bubble”.

 
Let me ask you this: don't you think the invasion has legitimized NATO-membership of for example the Baltic states? Or do you consider all their fears about Russian military action to be irrational?

And second: if your counter-argument is "stay neutral and Russia won't attack you". Do you not have a problem with that particular argument? Why would countries stay neutral if economic integration with the West will make them richer and provide a better life for their citizens?

I think those all nations are right in seeking protection in the warm embrace of Nato. But here we are talking specifically about Ukraine which has a large land border and close cultural ties with Russia. If people can't understand why Russia would find that a red line and major security threat, they are entitled to keep their heads buried in the sand. It's not only about what Ukraine or US wants but also what Russia as a major regional power with a big ego needs. And ignoring their needs has led to war.

I was not looking for another extended debate on this as it's been done to death here and people have their set views. But I will keep sharing any videos or articles I find interesting inspite of the western influenced echo chamber.
 
Stubb is a former PM of Finland, a long time advocate of NATO membership and deeper EU integration. This is a very insightful thread on conversations he’s had with colleagues outside our “western bubble”.


Good thread.
 
I think those all nations are right in seeking protection in the warm embrace of Nato. But here we are talking specifically about Ukraine which has a large land border and close cultural ties with Russia. If people can't understand why Russia would find that a red line and major security threat, they are entitled to keep their heads buried in the sand. It's not only about what Ukraine or US wants but also what Russia as a major regional power with a big ego needs. And ignoring their needs has led to war.

I was not looking for another extended debate on this as it's been done to death here and people have their set views. But I will keep sharing any videos or articles I find interesting inspite of the western influenced echo chamber.

War would of happened regardless, this is not about Nato. They want Moldova too.
Putin is still upset about the little Soviet Union. His only chance to try and rebuild it.
 
Stubb is a former PM of Finland, a long time advocate of NATO membership and deeper EU integration. This is a very insightful thread on conversations he’s had with colleagues outside our “western bubble”.



A couple of decent points made, then squandered at the end by references to "the West", which isn't an actual thing in political terms given that each nation in Europe and North America behave according to their own individual interests, much as the states he cites in other parts of the world. In the end, it feels like thinly veiled whataboutism masquerading as something thoughtful, and nuanced , which in the end does little to move the needle on Ukraine.
 
War would of happened regardless, this is not about Nato. They want Moldova too.
Putin is still upset about the little Soviet Union. His only chance to try and rebuild it.

Yes, before they all get swallowed by the West.
 
War would of happened regardless, this is not about Nato. They want Moldova too.
Putin is still upset about the little Soviet Union. His only chance to try and rebuild it.
It’s cool how no one listens to what Putin says.
 
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I think those all nations are right in seeking protection in the warm embrace of Nato. But here we are talking specifically about Ukraine which has a large land border and close cultural ties with Russia. If people can't understand why Russia would find that a red line and major security threat, they are entitled to keep their heads buried in the sand. It's not only about what Ukraine or US wants but also what Russia as a major regional power with a big ego needs. And ignoring their needs has led to war.

I was not looking for another extended debate on this as it's been done to death here and people have their set views. But I will keep sharing any videos or articles I find interesting inspite of the western influenced echo chamber.
You can share all you want. What should Ukraine have done? Not shift West? Stay under the Russian umbrella till eternity?

Make your point.
 


So, Saudi Arabia very actively participates in 9/11, gets immediate and total protection from the Bush mafia, has the US bomb and starve on its regional enemies as a direct consequence of 9/11, gets openly close to one US party while the other helps it continue its war crimes, and then refuses a US presidents' request to lower oil prices and save his dying presidency. All this with zero pushback.

Remember, there is no such thing as a permanent deep state of military+intelligence with interests that can run contrary to the democratically elected government. You would rightly get 4 pinocchios in the WaPo for suggesting that.