Geopolitics

[Raoul]

Point is that Spanish companies have to decide if they want to trade with Cuba or the US. They can't do both.

Cuba already trades with Spain, and even trades with the US on specific things.

 

[4bars]

Spain is cubas second largest trading partner

I know. and?

 

[VorZakone]

UK cedes Chagos Island sovereignty to Mauritius, retains Diego Garcia airbase

Britain said on Thursday it would cede sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius in a deal it said secured the future of the UK-U.S. Diego Garcia military base, and which could also pave the way for people displaced decades ago to return home.
U.S. President Joe Biden welcomed the deal, saying it would secure the effective operation of Diego Garcia, a strategically important airbase in the Indian Ocean, into the next century.

https://www.reuters.com/world/brita...d-sovereignty-deal-with-mauritius-2024-10-03/

 

[4bars]

Hope Argentinians don't see that

 

[VorZakone]

A recent diplomatic disagreement has pushed Somalia into closer ties with Egypt and Eritrea, both of which have long-standing disputes with Ethiopia.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

https://news.usni.org/2024/10/09/na...ach-under-current-budget-outlook-says-admiral

The immediate complication facing the Navy and the Pentagon is that 14 out of the last 15 fiscal years have started with a continuing resolution instead of an enacted budget, putting a hold on spending plans.

“That means you’re kind of slow out of the gate” because spending is largely capped at the last fiscal year’s approved levels and new starts are generally not exempted, Pitts said, “There’s a misalignment of appropriations” that includes critical weapons procurement under continuing resolutions.

This year’s first continuing resolution, which expires in December, does not include $1.95 billion the White House requested for two Virginia-class submarines.

Last year, the Navy delivered an assessment to Congress stating that “a future battle force objective of 381 ships is required to meet future campaigning and warfighting demands,” according to a report in USNI News.

The Navy’s budget would have to grow 3 to 5 percent above inflation to meet that goal, Vice Adm. James Pitts told an audience at an event hosted by the U.S. Naval Institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Tuesday.

Instead, Pitts said the budget requests for the Pentagon could fall to about 2 percent of gross domestic product which would “the lowest since the 1920s.” If kept at that level, the 381-ship fleet would be unobtainable.

I swear, if anyone cries about US defense budgets being too high again, I'll weep.

The West is sleepwalking to oblivion, and the people are happy to cheer their own demise.

Lowest potential navy budget since 1920's, jesus christ.

 

[4bars]

https://news.usni.org/2024/10/09/na...ach-under-current-budget-outlook-says-admiral







I swear, if anyone cries about US defense budgets being too high again, I'll weep.

The West is sleepwalking to oblivion, and the people are happy to cheer their own demise.

Lowest potential navy budget since 1920's, jesus christ.

I dont know if my math are wrong (really, im bad at it and might miss ) but if the US GDP grew 2.9% last year and the navy decreassed their budget 2% of the gdp. Doesnt mean that is 0.9% higher than last year?

 

[AfonsoAlves]

I dont know if my math are wrong (really, im bad at it and might miss ) but if the US GDP grew 2.9% last year and the navy decreassed their budget 2% of the gdp. Doesnt mean that is 0.9% higher than last year?

I have absolutely no idea how you reached that conclusion. How do you know how much the US navy budget changed if you don’t know what the current value is as a percent of gdp?

Also given inflation is at 2.4%, any material increase is immediately offset.

 

[4bars]

I have absolutely no idea how you reached that conclusion. How do you know how much the US navy budget changed if you don’t know what the current value is as a percent of gdp?

Also given inflation is at 2.4%, any material increase is immediately offset.

Maybe i misread it then. But yeah. The navy can be relatively lower than ever. Still a crazy amount but i guess not enough if you keep playing world police

 

[Mogget]

https://news.usni.org/2024/10/09/na...ach-under-current-budget-outlook-says-admiral







I swear, if anyone cries about US defense budgets being too high again, I'll weep.

The West is sleepwalking to oblivion, and the people are happy to cheer their own demise.

Lowest potential navy budget since 1920's, jesus christ.

How?

You've mentioned an existential threat on here a few times and said ordinary people are going to need to choose which ideology to follow, but you haven't elaborated when questioned on it.

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Nonsensical fake news.

Most of the stuff US is providing isn't even used by the DoD branches.

 

[4bars]

Nonsensical fake news.

Most of the stuff US is providing isn't even used by the DoD branches.

Maybe preparing the terrain of an excuse to drop Ukraine if trump gets elected (like he needs any though)

 

[4bars]

My predictions for the Trump 2025-2029 presidency

- Ukraine is toast. Cedes territory and Russia eying Moldova and maybe some baltic countries is Trump pulls out from OTAN
- Israel and EEUU goes to war with Iran. As Iran has no capabilities, it applies scorched earth in middle east burning oil fields causing a global recession
- China decides to go for Taiwan around 2028 whichever method hey decide to go for. US doesn't intervene. If it is military conflict, semiconductors problems which depens or causes a recession

I am a positive guy, I swear

 

[neverdie]

My predictions for the Trump 2025-2029 presidency

- Ukraine is toast. Cedes territory and Russia eying Moldova and maybe some baltic countries is Trump pulls out from OTAN
- Israel and EEUU goes to war with Iran. As Iran has no capabilities, it applies scorched earth in middle east burning oil fields causing a global recession
- China decides to go for Taiwan around 2028 whichever method hey decide to go for. US doesn't intervene. If it is military conflict, semiconductors problems which depens or causes a recession

I am a positive guy, I swear

Predictions are notoriously tricky but I disagree with all three.

Ukraine will not get, imo, any of the land it has lost along the Crimean corridor (all to the east of Crimea through the original separatist areas). It can, however, depending on how smart/savvy and competent the US is, maybe get that which is to the west.

Israel will not be going to war with Iran and the EU is never joining that action if ever it were to be an Israeli attack. The distance between the two countries is about a thousand miles. Seeing as all they do is launch missiles in exchange (tit-for-tat) after exchange at each other, how can any advancing army be safe over a one thousand mile contiguous distance? This isn't the US, which will absolutely avoid Israeli attempts to go to war with Iran, which could do such a thing (though it would end up worse than Vietnam once they actually got there). It is Israel. Moreover, the EU has no incentive whatsoever to go to war with Iran. Russia also has an agreement which does two things: one, it means the Iranian nuclear facilities are now Russian investments (it will be viewed as a strike against Russian interests, strategical and essential, if Israel or anyone else is to bomb these areas); two, Russia has taken on a de facto responsibility to ensure Iran does not get a nuclear weapon. It will be blamed, unilaterally, now, if Iran does.

On China. They have been waiting nearly one hundred years to be in the position they are in. They have a great reputation (mostly and in contrast to other nations which have been recently colonial in external senses) around the world because they have not gone to war and are seen as Wilsonian moderates sans the American intervention in WW1. If Taiwan does go back to China, as One China policy come to fruition, it will not be through war (and if, in the unlikely case that such is true, it will not be in that timespan). They have simply come to far to throw so much away. The only scenario here is if the US places significant military installments into Taiwan in which case the Chinese will respond but most likely with other means than naval invasion.

Also, as per Taiwan, the US started moving its logistics regarding semi-conductors and chips back to the US under Trump and ramped that up massively (CHIPS act and more) under Biden - noting the Chinese/Taiwainese issue and also general insecurity in global supply chains. Moreover, as part of an even broader "thing" whereby raw (minerals) to refined (distribution of products and sale) as productive process is much more stable as panacea to de-industrialization. Biden ran on this massively in similar terms and other terms that were basically "dumbed down" or "simplified" but which meant the same thing in 2020.

 

[nickm]

On Taiwan, I have read stuff wondering if TMSC moving chip production to the US makes war more rather than less likely, because the US is less likely to defend the island if they have chip production on their own territory.

(I don't think the primary goal for the US would be to defend TMSCs fabs BTW, I thought it was an interesting idea).

 

[4bars]

Predictions are notoriously tricky but I disagree with all three.

Ukraine will not get, imo, any of the land it has lost along the Crimean corridor (all to the east of Crimea through the original separatist areas). It can, however, depending on how smart/savvy and competent the US is, maybe get that which is to the west.

Israel will not be going to war with Iran and the EU is never joining that action if ever it were to be an Israeli attack. The distance between the two countries is about a thousand miles. Seeing as all they do is launch missiles in exchange (tit-for-tat) after exchange at each other, how can any advancing army be safe over a one thousand mile contiguous distance? This isn't the US, which will absolutely avoid Israeli attempts to go to war with Iran, which could do such a thing (though it would end up worse than Vietnam once they actually got there). It is Israel. Moreover, the EU has no incentive whatsoever to go to war with Iran. Russia also has an agreement which does two things: one, it means the Iranian nuclear facilities are now Russian investments (it will be viewed as a strike against Russian interests, strategical and essential, if Israel or anyone else is to bomb these areas); two, Russia has taken on a de facto responsibility to ensure Iran does not get a nuclear weapon. It will be blamed, unilaterally, now, if Iran does.

On China. They have been waiting nearly one hundred years to be in the position they are in. They have a great reputation (mostly and in contrast to other nations which have been recently colonial in external senses) around the world because they have not gone to war and are seen as Wilsonian moderates sans the American intervention in WW1. If Taiwan does go back to China, as One China policy come to fruition, it will not be through war (and if, in the unlikely case that such is true, it will not be in that timespan). They have simply come to far to throw so much away. The only scenario here is if the US places significant military installments into Taiwan in which case the Chinese will respond but most likely with other means than naval invasion.

Also, as per Taiwan, the US started moving its logistics regarding semi-conductors and chips back to the US under Trump and ramped that up massively (CHIPS act and more) under Biden - noting the Chinese/Taiwainese issue and also general insecurity in global supply chains. Moreover, as part of an even broader "thing" whereby raw (minerals) to refined (distribution of products and sale) as productive process is much more stable as panacea to de-industrialization. Biden ran on this massively in similar terms and other terms that were basically "dumbed down" or "simplified" but which meant the same thing in 2020.

You summarized perfectly all my lousy predictions. Don't anything happening in Taiwan, but with Trump I see it from impossible to extremely unliklely.

Iran conflict, and I am not talking of invasion but bombing the shit out of submission accounting that the population is very unhappy with the regime, I would place it from very unlikely to unlikley with Trump. Basically Israel is with the rolling pin in the region and Trump had a very aggressive rhetoric in his first term. Both things combined could make it happen if things goes out of hand. But again, unlikely

Ukraine seems bleak and I don't see how Donald will support at all Ukraine, quite the contrary

 

[OmgTheyKilkenny]

How exactly is a small country like Nicaguara an extensive threat to the USA?

Why is it always the Latin America socialists which are the threats yet brutal dictators like Pinochet, Trujillo, Debayle and Videla were all supported for much of their rein.

Unfortunately I wonder if this is them setting the scene to impose economic sanctions and try to cause destabilisation. I doubt Trump will be reversing it.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

How exactly is a small country like Nicaguara an extensive threat to the USA?

Why is it always the Latin America socialists which are the threats yet brutal dictators like Pinochet, Trujillo, Debayle and Videla were all supported for much of their rein.

Unfortunately I wonder if this is them setting the scene to impose economic sanctions and try to cause destabilisation. I doubt Trump will be reversing it.

Nicaragua is already incredibly unstable, made worse by the actions of Ortega to basically imprison/kill anyone who opposes him.

Since 2018 this was passed and nothing has changed to rectify the situation.

Having another violent, "Revolutionary" state next to the USA is not good. USA will tolerate socialist or left leaning politicians provided they don't go down the crazy route of declaring decades long revolutions years after taking power and then going around gunning people down.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

Case in point, US still maintains cordiality with Bolivia despite their ever increasing rhetoric and authoritarianism because it's still a functional country.

 

[OmgTheyKilkenny]

Nicaragua is already incredibly unstable, made worse by the actions of Ortega to basically imprison/kill anyone who opposes him.

Since 2018 this was passed and nothing has changed to rectify the situation.

Having another violent, "Revolutionary" state next to the USA is not good. USA will tolerate socialist or left leaning politicians provided they don't go down the crazy route of declaring decades long revolutions years after taking power and then going around gunning people down.

I don't see how they pose a national security threat to the USA though? I'm pretty sure USA hasn't been invaded for over 2 centuries and I doubt one of the poorest countries in Central America is going to change that either.

In terms of it being a supposed violent nation, I'm pretty sure USA has a greater homicide rate than Nicagura so is it really that violent?

If you interfere by imposing sanctions and supporting rebels and oppositions then that can create the conditions for instability and violence.

It's a chicken and an egg situation but given the history of supporting right wing capitalist regimes and overthrowing left wing regimes. Cynically I can't help but feel the biggest crime here is being left wing. And just like us discussing, and agreeing on Russia using sanctions for political interference. I feel the same may happen here to try and force a regime change which would be more open to foreign privatisation and investment.

 

[AfonsoAlves]

I don't see how they pose a national security threat to the USA though? I'm pretty sure USA hasn't been invaded for over 2 centuries and I doubt one of the poorest countries in Central America is going to change that either.

In terms of it being a supposed violent nation, I'm pretty sure USA has a greater homicide rate than Nicagura so is it really that violent?

If you interfere by imposing sanctions and supporting rebels and oppositions then that can create the conditions for instability and violence.

It's a chicken and an egg situation but given the history of supporting right wing capitalist regimes and overthrowing left wing regimes. Cynically I can't help but feel the biggest crime here is being left wing. And just like us discussing, and agreeing on Russia using sanctions for political interference. I feel the same may happen here to try and force a regime change which would be more open to foreign privatisation and investment.

Nicaragua has a 2x Homocide rate than the USA.

The problem isn't shit like gang violence and petty crime - USA is okay with outrageous crime rates in the Carribbean islands for example. What isn't okay is when the homocide is state sponsored. This creates problems.

When is a national security threat "invasion?" You're mixing things up.

I mean, Nicaragua isn't unique in this list:

The most recent Countries of Particular Concern designations were made by the Secretary of State on December 29, 2023:

Burma, People’s Republic of China, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

Yes, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are considered threats to US security because despite being somewhat allies/puppets in a way, they are hotbeds for extremism.

Terror attacks are also a matter of national security.