Not that I disagree with anything youre saying, but I genuinely believe there's a better chance of Sunak winning this election than starmer calling another referendum.
General Election 2024
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You'd presume it's because it would be election poison to open that can of worms, which it probably would be, but who knows? Maybe he thinks a reset and improved relations with the EU are possible.
Don't see how anyone can have conviction about what he really thinks, given he'll bend to take the route of least resistance with the right wing press every time.
Yes that is very fair.
I wasn't really suggesting that he would, although it is my strong view that were he to do that, the outcome would be quite different.
Especially if it involves voters from the age of 16.
More that he seems to at least understand that if you want to increase wealth, you really ought to first look at reducing the barriers to trading with your closest countries.
But wanting to discuss trading arrangements with the EU is hardly likely to endear himself or Labour with the right wing press is it.
On the contrary.
In 2018, I had downloaded EU-wide data regarding healthcare spending, and the proportion of healthcare spending covered directly by the govt. Don't have the time to find the data* and make a fresh one, so:
I think the y-axis is % GDP spent on healthcare, and x-axis is how much of that spending is directly by the govt (which I think excludes state-run insurance like France).
1. The UK's spending is low by European standards, especially outside Southern Europe (considering also that Norway's oil makes it a bit of a GDP outlier, one can argue that the UK is effectively spending the least among Western/Northern Europe). As a amount of money per capita rather than % of GDP, it is indeed the lowest among Northern/Western Europe.
2. For the people talking about the superiority of other models, like Germany...the Germans spend about 1.5 points(~16%) more than the UK on health expenditures. Where will that money come from in this new system that is to be adopted? And, if the NHS had a budget that was 16% higher, would it be in the state that it was in?
3. Countries with more directly nationalised systems seem to spend less on healthcare.
*also Brexit means it probably no longer exists in one place
I don't think that data tells you much, you have some of the best healthcare systems at opposite ends of the chart.
Spending per capita is the most relevant and more specifically looking at the spending and the per capita part separately. The UK's outright spending is about average but our population growth quite comfortably outstrips other major European nations over the last couple of decades. We are falling behind because we are being expected to increase the spending more than the countries around us and the productivity isn't there to support it. In short we have too many people who are not contributing.
I suppose I keep harping on about it because I hope it will come true. I am of an age where I am unlikely to see many more GE, so "hope springs eternal" as they say.
Actually, it's more than that, I do believe (and perhaps always have) that Labour will 'creep' into real power (a bit like war time) when to rally the nation for the coming battles they need to ensure everybody has a fair share, not just the very richest, but the people who keep the wheels turning.
Certainly, in my life time, the idea a Labour government just might get a landslide majority of maybe 150 to +200 seats, was almost unthinkable. The Manifesto is 'lite', no doubt, but it points the way in a realistic manner to proper and sustainable change i.e continuous, 'moving of the dial stuff'. The other pointer is the abject failure (or so it seems) of the Tories, i.e. if they do get less than 100 seats it will be catastrophic for them and will indicate Labour a has a real chance of 1 or 2 more further terms in office. In this sense the current Labour manifesto should be viewed as Chapter 1 in 'Moving the Dial'.
Starmer is right 'Change' is needed but it wont come quickly, we must not keep going on about Brexit, Covid , etc. these are done, gone and have left their mark; however there are other changes, in climate, mass migration, water pollution/storage, housing and energy supplies all just over the horizon. We need a stable government over the next 15 years, to prepare properly for the next 50.
I do hope it is a Labour government, loaded with power of a massive majority in parliament, in order to begin to move the dial...
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Don't disagree with any of this apart from where you said about the Tory abject failure...or so it seems.
That abject failure is definite and total.
Farage saying he wants to be PM in 2029, unfortunately there's a clear pathway...
- Labour wins with a massive majority
- Tories wiped out to < 100 seats
- Farage wins in Clacton
- Either Reform & Tories merge, or Farage defects
- Leadership race for either the merged Party or the Tories, Farage wins
- Labour don't bring about sweeping change in 2025-29
- Farage Party wins in '29
- Labour wins with a massive majority
- Tories wiped out to < 100 seats
- Farage wins in Clacton
- Either Reform & Tories merge, or Farage defects
- Leadership race for either the merged Party or the Tories, Farage wins
- Labour don't bring about sweeping change in 2025-29
- Farage Party wins in '29
Farage saying he wants to be PM in 2029, unfortunately there's a clear pathway...
- Labour wins with a massive majority
- Tories wiped out to < 100 seats
- Farage wins in Clacton
- Either Reform & Tories merge, or Farage defects
- Leadership race for either the merged Party or the Tories, Farage wins
- Labour don't bring about sweeping change in 2025-29
- Farage Party wins in '29
I think this is pretty much what happens. The whole of Europe is lurching to the right, the UK will be no different
Perhaps, or just wishful thinking my friend
Think of the past when the Tories were supposedly dead but wouldn't line down, After Edward Heath (and the first Miners strike) after Margaret Thatcher's three terms, but then John Major did a 'raising of Lazarus' act; now after Theresa, Boris, Liz and Richie, we might indeed find the Tory corpse floating down the Thames... but don't count on it.
Or, he recognises that any journey back to EU membership has to be done in stages. I think anyone thinking that he was going to promise to rejoin at this election is in fantasy land. And whatever the polls say, it would be a very big deal and argument that would derail everything else. And I say this as a remainer/rejoiner. You have to pick your battles. Better instead to draw a line under it and make the best of a bad job in this parliament and (I hope) go for it in the next. Time is very much on the rejoiner side, so the strategy should recognise that.
Is he launching a "contract" because "manifesto" sounds too foreign, or because "contract" is easier for his dipshits supporters to spell?
Sorry, I really should be holding the hands of these right wing losers and helping them see sense. I wouldn't want to alienate them further...
Farage is able to stand on a stage and have his words broadcast live on the BBC, even though he has absolutely zero authority, and talk about how wokeness has ruined Wales, and how the NHS has never worked properly, and I'm meant to have a conversation with these twats?
Sorry, I really should be holding the hands of these right wing losers and helping them see sense. I wouldn't want to alienate them further...
Farage is able to stand on a stage and have his words broadcast live on the BBC, even though he has absolutely zero authority, and talk about how wokeness has ruined Wales, and how the NHS has never worked properly, and I'm meant to have a conversation with these twats?
He certainly does, he also knows the 'poison' that would be released with another (3rd 'shall we, shall we not Referendum') I don't think there is any clear mandate at the present time, there are more pressing problems and as @Paul the Wolf is fond of telling us "we ain't seen nothing yet" in terms of fallout from Brexit.
I think Starmer's aim is to keep us within 'hailing distance' of the EU and use certain areas as 'grappling hooks' to bring us closer if he can. Because if Paul is right (and we all know he believes passionately, that he is) once the press get hold of these 'return' issues there will be another war of words and everyone will retreat to the trenches.
There is also the as yet unknown effect of the swing to the right in many EU countries, how will the cards fall from that hand... anybody any ideas?
But the EU don't really have a problem with the UK. The animosity is invented by the British press or by politicians . The UK left and everyone moves on.
Labour as you can see in the press are being accused of wanting to take the UK back into the EU even though they're not.
If Starmer doesn't understand the problem there's no route to a solution.
But it's the been same since 2016. Parliament spent three years discussing which selection on the non-existent menu they would like.
The UK have a trade deal with the EU just like many other countries but they don't keep renegotiating every 5 minutes.
The problem is that Starmer, though not him alone, does not understand that being in a different Customs Union requires all the checks , certification of standards and paperwork to prove compliance. They can't just say we are aligning some standards with the EU. One example - the UK could import Australian beef which is banned in the EU. The Uk have to prove that any beef they export into the EU is from the UK or at least comply with EU standards. That's just one tiny example. Paperwork, all types of certificates, phytosanitary certificate, rules/certificate of origin, costly and time consuming. Before just an invoice and packing list and on the way.
And if the UK are in a Customs Union with the EU it means that they cannot import goods that don't comply with EU standards. Northern Ireland is a perfect example.
Furthermore the grace periods are ending so the checks, rules of origin plus the new ETIAS system is going to make things a lot tougher for the UK. As was said years back in the Brexit thread, trucks will eventually stop coming or going because there are too many barriers for quick trade.
Until Starmer understands why....
But Starmer is taking the UK even further away. Trying to pick and choose a couple of things he likes from his menu is not getting the UK closer. It's more annoying than anything else.
He's already ruled out a return to the EU publicly. And everyone around the world can hear what he and the UK are saying.
It brings us back to how Labour are going to return the UK to growth. There's nothing in the manifesto (that makes much sense).
Perhaps, or just wishful thinking my friend
Think of the past when the Tories were supposedly dead but wouldn't line down, After Edward Heath (and the first Miners strike) after Margaret Thatcher's three terms, but then John Major did a 'raising of Lazarus' act; now after Theresa, Boris, Liz and Richie, we might indeed find the Tory corpse floating down the Thames... but don't count on it.
You and I know that politics is cyclic. The Tories and Boris will be back, Boris to save them from the dreaded Farage.
Not only that, but I am becoming convinced that Brexit will be back on the agenda as well.
The scenario.... Labour has tried to stimulate growth in order to fund the NHS etc without raising taxes.
But we all know that is not likely to happen.
The voting age is reduced to 16 (I am in full support of that).
So, more and more people start to realise that we have to face up to the fact that Brexit is holding the UK back from stimulating growth.
And the millions of new voters who have never had the chance to vote for leaving the EU start to exert more pressure for a rethink.
Wishful thinking, or an inevitably??
Yeah absolutely. It feels like you need another 10 years at least for another for more Brexiteers to die out. Even then apathy might set in and it'll be difficult if we had to ditch the pound.
It is bizarre no-one will discuss it because it remains such an open sore on British politics though.
Farage saying he wants to be PM in 2029, unfortunately there's a clear pathway...
- Labour wins with a massive majority
- Tories wiped out to < 100 seats
- Farage wins in Clacton
- Either Reform & Tories merge, or Farage defects
- Leadership race for either the merged Party or the Tories, Farage wins
- Labour don't bring about sweeping change in 2025-29
- Farage Party wins in '29
If there's even a slight split in the Tory party, Labour will dominate every election for the next 20+ years.
The "centrist" Tory types will probably defect to Labour or even the Lib Dems if Farage becomes Tory leader before a potential 2029 election. If, even 50% + of the current Tory Mps defect to Reform, there's no guarantee each constituency returns a Reform MP.
The only way Farage ever becomes PM is in the unlikely event that Starmer calls for a 2nd referendum that 'rejoin' wins causing people to develop collective memory loss and everyone voting Tory again with Farage becoming PM after he defects to the tories in response to losing the referendum/rejoining the EU.
Yes, I don’t see how a Farage-led party gets more than 20-25%. If he takes over the Tories then you would see either a centre-right version of the SDP or an exodus to the Lib Dems. Most likely even a rapprochement with the EU wouldn’t move the dial as by 2029 you have (demographically speaking) all the new voters aged 18-31 who couldn’t vote in 2016 and much less of the pensioners who had voted leave.
what a joke these people are.
"Vote for us. We're not going to be in a position to do anything but shout about it all."
Except that they'll be on MP salaries and expenses. That's all this is about.
The last thing Farage wants is to be held accountable for anything. Why people think he wants to be PM, I have no idea.
Anyone who votes for Reform are complete and total idiots.
No pity for the 50,000 fools who were conned out of £25 each.
His "contract" is a joke. Brexit is destroying the country. "Britain is broken - vote for me and I'll completely finish it off!"
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I want slap every person stupid enough to vote for an obvious con man like Farage. How ignorant must these people be?
For the first line, my point was just about spending, not about quality - the discussion was that the public sector is inherently inefficient.
For the rest - sure, more money is needed, and that increased spending will be required whether the NHS continues in a recognisable form, or whether Labour introduces more privatisation (either at the medical side or the payment side).
And my gut feeling is that a more private system will require an even bigger increase in expenditure for equivalent care, for reasons that are obvious from the US. After all, American lobbyists - including my own insurer here - are among those meeting Labour's health minister.
The root problem with the NHS is lack of money, not the sector it is in.
Farage don't want to be PM. He wants to grief endlessly. When they won the referendum, he jumped boat ASAP and criticized any brexit outcome. Now he is with reform and will grift from the bench of his constituency over and over till he retires. As long as he promises stupid shit and he doesn't need to be held accountable, he is fine.
You are beginning to sound like our friend @Paul the Wolf.
It's not about rejoining the EU it's about finding a way to trade with them from the outside. Yes, it will be more difficult but not impossible, we may have to become a 'rule taker' not a 'rule maker', then so be it. There are always 'quid pro quo's available.
Again political changes occurring in the EU will make the picture different to what it was. I agree with Paul in that the EU will not (cannot) change it's trading rules on single market and customs union etc. but 'freedom of movement' is going to go, even in the EU. The emergence of exploding migration, some caused by wars, but increasingly in future by climate change, is going to happen and by the end of this century many countries on earth may well will be unable to sustain life, or have disappeared like 'Atlantis', under the waves
The problem in looking back is that politically the further we move away from 2016 and the referendum, more and not less light needs to be shed on what is required to be done now, facing current dangers. Re-running a flawed referendum from almost 20 years ago, one that should never have been held in the first place, will solve nothing going forward.
Any UK leader spending any time on entertaining this thought, never mind acting upon it, is doomed to failure.
It isn't just that old Brexiteers will have died off, just listen carefully to some of the youngsters you are advocating should vote, many are more aware than most people think. First, it's looking forward they want not looking back, secondly, and admittedly only fairly recently, the rise of far right groups in Europe is just as horrifying to them as Farage and Co are here.
The world is changing it's more volatile and uncertain now than when the Brexit referendum was held, e.g. the long term effects of the Covid pandemic are not just about physical health, it's effects on mind as well as body is longer lasting, maybe much longer than anyone yet realise. The working from home situation that is becoming embedded after Covid has not been a panacea for anything except perhaps curtailing the spread of Covid.
Other pressure beside trade will drive both the EU (as a political entity) and the UK to new horizons, and if we cannot trade amicably with them, there will come a point where they cannot trade with us and both will suffer, much more than they need to. Starmers right changes are afoot and its heads up and looking forward we need.
You sound like Starmer. Just cannot get this through.
The Uk is trading with the EU; The Uk have the best deal any country has with the EU. You are a rule taker - every country that the UK exports to, you have to abide by their rules, not the UK's.
Freedom of Movement is within the EU not with the outside world - even the Far Right parties in the EU understand this. Even Le Pen doesn't want to leave the EU - she know it would be a catastrophe but like Farage her economic policies make no sense and would scare the markets. Thick idiots who vote for these people think they're being patriotic but are actually destroying their own country.
Not talking about a referendum, first of all the UK have got to stop drifting away and understand what they've actually voted for. Very few people seem to know.
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That's what I am talking about a number of the eastern EU countries are on the verge of going 'rogue' on this.
East European Countries want to join the EU, not leave it. (who are not pro-Putin) Putin's little helpers and useful idiots, Farage and Le Pen
I hope they fail miserably
I wouldn't, every person that votes for him is a voter lost to theTories, it just ensures that Labour wins seats that it won't normally win
In what sense?
That's great as long as Farage doesn't get in, I want the cnut to suffer the humiliation of an 8th defeat, its the least he deserves for the damage he's done.
State of Daily Mail and Telegraph on this list. No wonder we elect idiots.
I was interviewed earlier by a reporter for radio five live asking for my thoughts about the election and everything I know comes from this thread so cheers for the help lads
What time? I only ever listen to 5Live whilst driving and I like arguing with the people who call in, so I may have called you a wanker.
Even if he directly praised Mr Pigeon from RedCafe?
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