General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time

How do you intend to vote in the 2017 General Election if eligible?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 80 14.5%

  • Labour

    Votes: 322 58.4%

  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 57 10.3%

  • Green

    Votes: 20 3.6%

  • SNP

    Votes: 13 2.4%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 29 5.3%

  • Independent

    Votes: 3 0.5%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 2 0.4%

  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 11 2.0%

  • Other (UUP, DUP, BNP, and anyone else I have forgotten)

    Votes: 14 2.5%
  • Total voters
    551
  • Poll closed .
Slight shrinking of the lead under Opinium.



Opinium are usually more generous to Labour, but this still feels a bit more sane that the flipping 20+ point gaps we've seen. Still can't believe Tories will top 45%.

YouGov out later, who showed a narrowing during the last week so that'll be interesting. YouGov generally show larger leads than Opinium.
 
That YouGov poll would mean a 79 seat majority for the Conservatives apparently, I feel like they'd be disappointed with that. Is it really likely Labour will get a a similar vote share to last time though?
 
Sweet Square said:
May couldn't even say that nurses going to food banks is wrong.

Horrible cnut.

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I despise her, Lynton Crosby, Phillip Hammond, Dacre and Murdoch for making this country a more depressing place. I don't give a shit if Corbyn might be an incompetent leader, at least I actually trust he wants what's best for the majority.

The announcement this morning from McDonnell on the pledge to ban ZHC is more proof of that. This is common sense stuff we should all get behind and rally for. What does May stand for? She's an opportunistic pussy who stands for nothing and doesn't want accountability. She doesn't deserve to lead us. People are poorer, four million kids growing up in poverty, education eviscerated, NHS being dismantled, national debt up, out of the EU. Where's the good stuff? Get the Tories out for feck's sake!
 
Giggsy92 said:
That YouGov poll would mean a 79 seat majority for the Conservatives apparently, I feel like they'd be disappointed with that. Is it really likely Labour will get a a similar vote share to last time though?
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79 is a huge majority in the modern era with so few marginals, but yeah, when people are talking excitedly about majorities of 200, 79 might be underwhelming. However the truth is that 50 to 100 was considered unthinkable not long ago, it would still be a catastrophe for Labour.

As for whether Labour will get 31%, its important to remember that the polls move as you go through a campaign, and not just because people are changing their minds. There's a big chunk of Don't Knows at the start of the campaign. As you go through the campaign those Don't Knows make up their mind, but they might not do so evenly across all parties. Left leaning Undecideds may make up their minds sooner than right leaning Undecideds (or vice versa). So the polls ebb and flow in each direction as people make up their mind. This positive movement could just be floating Labour people making up their mind, we'll see over the next few weeks.

Instinctively, I don't think the gap will be more than 10 percentage points, but I think that Labour will get 30 or less.
 
Sweet Square said:
May couldn't even say that nurses going to food banks is wrong.

Horrible cnut.

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Yeah but she'll go to heaven because she's Christian. Granted she has feck all christian values, but she does go to church so that makes everything much better. Or something.
 
ICM at 19 though



I think the final margin will be in the teens, but whether that's high or low teens I have no idea.
 
Lib Dems will do better than polling suggests.Will pick up an awful lot of anti-Brexit voters who can't vote for Corbyn.
 
Unmutual said:
Get the feeling that Clive Lewis is putting clear water between himself and Corbyn. Now calling for a second ref on the terms of exit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-clive-lewis-rachael-maskell?CMP=share_btn_tw
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Ubik said:
Think it's all about trying to secure the remain vote in Norwich for him at the moment. Interesting thing though, who was the last leader whose seat wasn't safe?
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Yeah, he won his seat from the Lib Dems in 2015 and runs the very real risk that any sort of Lib Dem resurgence will see him lose it to either them (unlikely imo) or the Conservatives.
 
Oscie said:
Lib Dems will do better than polling suggests.Will pick up an awful lot of anti-Brexit voters who can't vote for Corbyn.
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You'd assume so but there's little evidence of a pro-remain impact on the polls so far. I'm now expecting the Lib Dems to stick with less than 20 seats.
 
ThierryHenry said:
You'd assume so but there's little evidence of a pro-remain impact on the polls so far. I'm now expecting the Lib Dems to stick with less than 20 seats.
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Exaggerating the growth of the Lib Dems is a general election tradition. If they double their number of MPs, that'll be a great result for them.
 
ThierryHenry said:
You'd assume so but there's little evidence of a pro-remain impact on the polls so far. I'm now expecting the Lib Dems to stick with less than 20 seats.
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For the Lib Dems it's about targeting specific seats, like they did with Goldsmith. Their vote share may even go down and pick up seats
 
ThierryHenry said:
You'd assume so but there's little evidence of a pro-remain impact on the polls so far. I'm now expecting the Lib Dems to stick with less than 20 seats.
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They haven't been anywhere near as pro-remain in reality as people have made them in theory. Farron's interview on Marr was unbelievably stupid on this topic yesterday.
 
Unmutual said:
Kind of weird watching Labour attack the Tories from the right. While I'm not sure VAT (or VAT alone) is the answer, we need to increase the tax base in the UK.
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Increasing VAT is increasing taxes for the poorest though
 
Having watched May in the last few days I can't get over how fecked politics must be to have her as likely winner of a landslide in this election. She's probably odds on to be a worse PM than Cameron in all aspects of the job and yet she's going to get a massive incentive to do whatever the feck she wants. It's a remarkable time.
 
Minimalist said:
Having watched May in the last few days I can't get over how fecked politics must be to have her as likely winner of a landslide in this election. She's probably odds on to be a worse PM than Cameron in all aspects of the job and yet she's going to get a massive incentive to do whatever the feck she wants. It's a remarkable time.
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Now's the chance for the people to Unite and vote en mass for the same party but you know what it's like.....

Once bitten, twice.......bitten, thrice bitten and so on
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Christ.

Is nobody willing to represent 48% of the electorate?!
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If you read the whole thing it's not particularly noteworthy, just a bit of wumming from the Tele

Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, he made a pitch for voters in former Lib Dem heartlands in the South West, where many people voted to leave the European Union.

"I don't want to go off on a little bit of a rabbit hole here, but you will remember that I resigned from the Liberal Democrat front bench about 10 years ago because I am a bit of a Eurosceptic," he said.

"I'm somebody who challenges people in power - the EU, in government, in councils - but I am somebody who believes Britain is better off in the European Union."
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