Weird situation where the Tories look the more likely to end the triple lock and be willing to raise taxes, with Labour criticising them for both. I get why the latter are doing it, but...
General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time
- Thread starter altodevil
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Reveal yourselves!
Aye, the caf never ceases to amaze you.
Owen Jones defending it* on the basis that poor young people may one day be old and rich has made me chuckle
*Labour keeping the triple lock
What's so left wing about Ireland? Isn't abortion still illegal due to religious beliefs and they offer very low corporation tax to big business?
Sounds very conservative if anything.
We're through the looking glass here people
Can a budding modmin possibly change the title to "UK General Election 2017"? I keep getting it mixed up with the German election thread. Bloody europeans, coming over here and having elections in the same year.
Also slightly alarming
They had a +9 lead for the Tories pre-election announcement, may suggest (along with a similar although less pronounced leap for YouGov) that people focusing their minds more on the issue isn't going well for Labour. Though that said, I do expect them to narrow before June as ~20 point election wins are basically unheard of since 1931, which had its own particular circumstances.
They had a +9 lead for the Tories pre-election announcement, may suggest (along with a similar although less pronounced leap for YouGov) that people focusing their minds more on the issue isn't going well for Labour. Though that said, I do expect them to narrow before June as ~20 point election wins are basically unheard of since 1931, which had its own particular circumstances.
Still loving me some Labour moderates
No idea where the label 'Red Tories' comes from. Must be another of those 'Corbynista memes' like posting Angela Eagle's Iraq war and investigation voting record was during the last leadership election.
I can't say what the reaction is but it will be an interesting contrast with the scorn for Jill Stein/Nader voters, for indirectly helping Trump/Bush (with the implicit assumption that they owe their votes to the Dems) vs these sober realists who are actively aiding May (with no assumptions needed).
''Trust me to give you the Brexit you want'' & similar is doing the job for Theresa
Remain haven't got anyone to vote for in most places, Brexiteers still highly motivated (keeping 'em that way probably priority #1 for the Tories)
Labour are a divided party & the Corbyn factor - there's no coherence to the Lefty position for folks to get behind
all too easy for the Tories & the Tory media narrative of what we think (what they want us to think)
not a surprise, but still depressing
i do think sometimes politicians just criticize each other becuase thats what thier expected to do ..... i remember the few months Blair and Cameron faced each other at Prime Ministers Question Time, it was bizarre becuase their politics where basically identical.
So depressing that, if this is reflected in the actual vote, I predict a spike in the number of suicides.
I'm suffering from a lack of sleep but does that poll suggest at one point UKIP were polling higher than the Lib Dems ?
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They got more votes than the libs and snp combined in the last election I think... So yeah I suspect they have polled ahead of the libs quite regularly
Yeah, last week's one. This is the first Opinium one that's had Lib Dems above them since the election I think.
Okay, this seems to make a trend.
Yeebus.
Yeebus.
Just how bad will something like that translate for Labour... 50 seats less?
That would be worse than they did in 83 under foot...
Corbyn gone by breakfast the next morning (possibly to start a momentum party) and no effective opposition for 5 years of the hardest possibly Brexit.
Snp will probably maintain most of their stuff in Scotland, libs will probably have a good bounce back and the conservatives will end up with a majority somewhere between workable and massive (depending just how many cluusterfecks comrade corbyn causes)
I still think Corbyn might close the gap, even a little. The scary part is these polls underestimate the Tory's every election cycle, so it could be 55% even.
That result on a uniform swing gives the Tories a 200 seat majority, Labour losing about 90.
Though it's worth remembering that the polls in 97 and 01 gave Labour vast leads, even touching 60% in vote share, and they "only" won by about 14%. Similar story for Thatcher against Foot I think.
Indeed... Labour has some very safe seats and there is not much libs for the conservatives to target... Plus snp now in Scotland so I don't see that huge a majority... But it looks (very much) like it could be labour's worst result (in terms of mps) since ww2
As a remain voter, with a very small business and a conscience, who the feck am I supposed to vote for here?
The conservatives are actually who brexit voters should be going for, Labour are the ones the poorest brexit voters should be going for, and the lib dems are who exactly??
If 48% of people voted to remain, surely one of the so called opposition should go that route and actually stand for us? That's got to be better than being humiliated and shown up as cowards for not trying.
The conservatives are actually who brexit voters should be going for, Labour are the ones the poorest brexit voters should be going for, and the lib dems are who exactly??
If 48% of people voted to remain, surely one of the so called opposition should go that route and actually stand for us? That's got to be better than being humiliated and shown up as cowards for not trying.
The EPL should be expanded to include the top two teams in Scotland. That way, when the Tories are given free reign to completely feck up England, Wales and NI, and when Scotland breaks away from UK and rejoins EU, we will be able to move to Socialist Scotland and see Utd on their Scottish away trips.
Perhaps the other question is how would Jill Stein/Nader voters advise the current Labour Voters? Would they ask them to follow their mind and vote Lib Dems or Conservatives or would they ask voters to be pragmatic and vote for Labour unlike them.
Got to be Lib Dems then. They usually deliver a financially sensible budget.
Best option is to look at who is likely to win your constituency and vote for whoever is most likely to keep the Tories out. Looks like they're going for a hard brexit, which seems like the worst option for you.
They should certainly do better than last time... I suspect at the expense of labour
This is also something pretty massive
Labour and Lib Dems goint to tories (unionism). Quite scary to think that.
Tories fighting dirty again
It's not the last election ever, if their vote share crumbles even further off 2015 then it looks even bleaker than ever of regaining a foothold there (assuming no independence, which is a very big assumption). Tories are beginning to do it after 20 years in the wilderness.
And then you think about what's going on in the rest of the UK...
Presumably the remain (in the UK) vote?
What makes them different this time to the last time they had a sniff at power then bent over? That people just want a centrist party, even if it's one with no ideas and no bottle?
Why is that any worse than any other option though? Who isn't going for a hard brexit? Why is anybody but the tories a good option, even if they have feck all policies I know about?
Is this Labour policy I've just heard about of 4 new public holidays for real?
As it's definitely a policy I can get behind...
As it's definitely a policy I can get behind...
I was sceptical on the first few tweets but it has certainly gained traction. They're saying Corbyn will be announcing it tomorrow.
It's constituencies like Norwich South that will worry Labour.
Clive Lewis has been spoken of as a future leader, but I think he's got a real fight on to save his seat and thats in a strong pro-Remain area.
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6
Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6
Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7
UKIP Steve Emmens 4,539 9.4 +7.0
That was 2015.
Assuming Labour do not lose any votes directly to the Tories here all that really needs to happen is for the Conservatives to cannibalise the UKIP vote and the Lib Dems to recover and the situation is close to being fecked already and thats an incredibly optimistic prediction.
Clive Lewis has been spoken of as a future leader, but I think he's got a real fight on to save his seat and thats in a strong pro-Remain area.
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6
Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6
Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7
UKIP Steve Emmens 4,539 9.4 +7.0
That was 2015.
Assuming Labour do not lose any votes directly to the Tories here all that really needs to happen is for the Conservatives to cannibalise the UKIP vote and the Lib Dems to recover and the situation is close to being fecked already and thats an incredibly optimistic prediction.
If May had a bad election (whatever that would be), would it strengthen the position of remainers or stregthen the position of the hardline brexiters within her own party? Because I see both being suggested.
Announced already I think?
I'm assuming they are going to be ok with me cutting wages by 1.58% as they have just taken 4 working days away?
That said Corbyn could offer people 4 weeks off and he would still be unelectable
I just dont believe these figure will pan out. I have no evidence to support this whatsoever but these 20+ point gaps are so unbelievable that I'm sure the numbers must converge a little. No party has managed even a 15 point gap in the post war era, to get a 20-odd point win now, and for a sitting Government at that, is too unrealistic. Hell, even 1931 only had a 25 point gap and that was a truly exceptional set of circumstances.