Why didn't Corbyn enforce the whip against the Election Bill? Surely he must have known that a general election wold decimate his party?
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Surely that'd make him look like a coward?
I don't understand or buy that The Torries are picking up votes from the SNP and Labour in an Anti-Tory Scotland of all places. What's the most they've ever got in Scotland?
I'm really not one of those "don't listen to polls" people. I think they are useful, important, and trust the academic work behind them.
But... there are problems with the field when two polls covering essentially the same groundwork period have a 10 point difference in the Conservative lead.
In January though.
But... there are problems with the field when two polls covering essentially the same groundwork period have a 10 point difference in the Conservative lead.
In January though.
That's akin to Labour voting to keep the Tories in Government.
Holding the Government to May's promise not to go early? Hardly cowardice.
In any case he should have opposed Brexit on the basis that someone needs to represent the interests of the 48% who voted against. He in Nero in opposition while Rome burns.
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The Tories will be in power anyway. They could at least use the next 3 years to try to get their shit together sufficiently so as not to get decimated at the polls, as will now certainly happen this year.
Logically, yes. But its the kind of argument the Opposition can't make. You can't really say "right now we're unelectable, give us three years to get our act together". They have to further the lie that they'd be a better Government & could win an election if people had a chance to vote for them. Stupid really, but then if politics were logical it would look very different.
Westminster VI polls have a number of factors that can't be quantified with absolute accuracy. One classic example is turnout. If you ask people, about 80-90% of people say they will definitely vote in a General Election. That's obviously not true, turnout is nearer 60%. So when pollsters get results in like that they have to adjust them to account for what they expect the actual turnout to be.
Some ask people how likely they are to vote from 1 to 10, then weight the scores based on that. Others use socio & demographic models to predict turnout, since turnout on class, geography, income, ethnicity etc are all fairly well understood. The different methodologies for calculating these adjustments results in different scores.
There are other factors like that. Not to mention simple things like the fact that rogue polls exist & that they all contain a margin of error of 2-3% anyway. Best thing is to take individual polls with a pinch of salt and instead look for trends in the aggregate poll of polls.
edit: speaking of which, here's the latest poll of polls.
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Tories pledge to reduce energy bills by £100
So we can revisit this classic
So we can revisit this classic
An update on one of the polls I posted earlier (note sample size)...
Connect the dots and lower energy bills is an obvious lie.
They refuse to rule out tax hikes. Why? Because if one thing is certain about brexit is that it will disrupt business in the short term, long term who knows, depends on what brexit it is. But reality is that the government's income will fall, and they will have to increase tax rates to compensate.
History says they won't increase higher rate taxes, but in fact the tories will do what they have done at the start of their last 4 governments, raise VAT. They promised specifically not to in three of those elections, including 2010, but did so within 2 months of the election. Now they won't even promise not to, so all bets are off.
That is a guaranteed 2.5% increase in energy bills from a tory government (maybe as much as 5% if they are feeling frisky).
They refuse to rule out tax hikes. Why? Because if one thing is certain about brexit is that it will disrupt business in the short term, long term who knows, depends on what brexit it is. But reality is that the government's income will fall, and they will have to increase tax rates to compensate.
History says they won't increase higher rate taxes, but in fact the tories will do what they have done at the start of their last 4 governments, raise VAT. They promised specifically not to in three of those elections, including 2010, but did so within 2 months of the election. Now they won't even promise not to, so all bets are off.
That is a guaranteed 2.5% increase in energy bills from a tory government (maybe as much as 5% if they are feeling frisky).
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Has a party with no MPs ever been given so much airtime. Wtf is Nuttal doing on Married again?
Granted they have no MPs, but they did get 12.5% of the vote last time & they are the UK's biggest party in Europe too.
I think they election UKIP will lose some of their former Conservative votes, but will perhaps gain more disillusioned Labour voters who voted leave.
In Scotland we may not like the Tories but we like Ruth Davidson. I wouldn't be surprised if some have warmed towards that party because of her. Doesn't make much sense because May is, well, fecking useless but I'm struggling to think of any social reasons.
If you go to Old Trafford on a Saturday and ask the 70,000 home fans who they support, 99.9% would say United. Does that mean 99.9% of football fans in the whole of the UK support United?
Probably because enough of his party would ingore the whip anyway
I don't watch ITV's Good Morning show (or whatever it's called).
Asked this same thing yesterday. No one come out so far.
Mods please make the voters visible.
I've got an idea who a few of them are
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05125
Latest Party membership figures
According to the latest available estimates from political parties’ head offices, press releases and media estimates:
- The Labour Party has around 517,000 members, as of March 2017.
- The Conservative Party had 149,800 members as of December 2013, the latest available estimate published by CCHQ.
- The Scottish National Party has around 120,000 members, as of July 2016.
- The Liberal Democrat Party has 82,000 members, as of February 2017.
- The Green Party (England and Wales) has 55,500 members, as of July 2016.
- UKIP has around 39,000 members, as of July 2016.
- The Plaid Cymru has 8,273 members, as of July 2016.
Note: Conservative figures are as of 1 December 2013 (Latest available estimate)
Source: latest available figures provided by party head offices and meadia releases
Thanks guys, that makes sense. I really don't want to vote at all tbh, but I will so I guess I'd better put effort in to figuring out who for.
On another note, Labour can feck right off with the extra bank holidays.
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05125
Latest Party membership figures
According to the latest available estimates from political parties’ head offices, press releases and media estimates:
- The Labour Party has around 517,000 members, as of March 2017.
- The Conservative Party had 149,800 members as of December 2013, the latest available estimate published by CCHQ.
- The Scottish National Party has around 120,000 members, as of July 2016.
- The Liberal Democrat Party has 82,000 members, as of February 2017.
- The Green Party (England and Wales) has 55,500 members, as of July 2016.
- UKIP has around 39,000 members, as of July 2016.
- The Plaid Cymru has 8,273 members, as of July 2016.
Note: Conservative figures are as of 1 December 2013 (Latest available estimate)
Source: latest available figures provided by party head offices and meadia releases
This has nothing to do with the amount of MEPs.
He should of said 'Let the British Public hold the government to account over Brexit in 2020'. Bad tactical choice in not doing so.
Not sure if you're being deliberately obtuse now, but the point is that its not just how many people you ask, its who gets asked that matters. In the case of the This Morning poll, its being shared all over Facebook & Twitter by Corbyn's supporters, who are pouring onto the website voting for Corbyn in an attempt to make him look good. That no more makes Corbyn the preferred PM by he country than it makes Mario Balotelli Liverpool's player of the year.
An electoral poll is only worthwhile if both a) it has enough people to be statistically significant and b) the people asked are representative of the entire country. Otherwise its worthless.
Plus, you know, you'd think it'd be a bit obvious that a show that's on during normal working hours is unlikely to have a representative audience.
Marr asked Corbyn what he would write on the letters to the head of the armed services to be delivered in case of Britain being under nuclear attack.
"I would say 'I want to work towards a nuclear free world'...."
Marr asked: "You'd put that in the letter?"
Corbyn: "No the letter will say to follow instruction"
I mean FFS
"I would say 'I want to work towards a nuclear free world'...."
Marr asked: "You'd put that in the letter?"
Corbyn: "No the letter will say to follow instruction"
I mean FFS
Ask a stupid question...
Around 68% of them, according to... um... you.
It was a stupid question. No one should know what the letter says before it needs to be opened.
Look... ITV's Good Morning audience is hardly going to be pro-Corbyn in the same way that the people that pay to go to watch Utd at OT are pro-Utd. Get it? It's as representative a sample as any, imo.
This Morning is the show that had Cameron on there every five minutes. And, in the most pathetic thing I've ever seen in politics, he once jogged past where they were filming outside.
The website is not restricted to only people who watch the programme...
Time for a bit of light relief (brought to you by UKIP)...
Depends what time the foodbank opens.
Poll of Peppa Pig viewers:
CON 17
LAB 18
PPIG 65
CON 17
LAB 18
PPIG 65
These polls are all fixed by the Tories.
I don't know. Are Zionists likely to be big pig fans?
It's a shady alliance between fat cats and big pigs, IMO.
Tory leaders have a history of it.