General Election 2017 | Cabinet reshuffle: Hunt re-appointed Health Secretary for record third time

[Untied]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet..._gtJPpGCWBWX6DofeoVS5_Ea_w/edit#gid=431732130

The result seems to be somewhere between me and @Dobba

I think you are pretty spot on (I lose on the tiebreaker). Although it depends where we count 'majority' from. If absolute, then 326 and @Kentonio wins; if functional then 322 and you win by tiebreaker.

But you are a lot closer on the Labour seats than ken, so I would declare you the winner

 

[Ubik]

She's told her aids that she is going to stay supposedly.

She's a wounded animal. Marr just raised the possibility of the DUP demanding she move aside for them to play ball...

 

[Classical Mechanic]

She's a wounded animal. Marr just raised the possibility of the DUP demanding she move aside for them to play ball...

It is natural that she will try and hang on if she can. I doubt she can, however.

 

[Fergies Gum]

So is the actual majority needed 322? Something related to Sinn Fein?

 

[Untied]

She's told her aids that she is going to stay supposedly.

Let me be clear, she's gone by the end of the week

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

So is the actual majority needed 322? Something related to Sinn Fein?

321 when you take out SF & the speaker.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

It will be interesting to see the Tories make a deal with the single country DUP, considering their "SNP would prop up Labour" narrative.

 

[Silva]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33983048

That's incredibly basic. I'm sure the same was said when there was only one university of the second, then of the third when there were only two.

 

[Fergies Gum]

321 when you take out SF & the speaker.

Ashcroft now saying its 320

 

[Classical Mechanic]

That's incredibly basic. I'm sure the same was said when there was only one university of the second, then of the third when there were only two.

You should know it anecdotally anyway unless you live in a cave.

 

[Silva]

I think you are pretty spot on (I lose on the tiebreaker). Although it depends where we count 'majority' from. If absolute, then 326 and @Kentonio wins; if functional then 322 and you win by tiebreaker.

But you are a lot closer on the Labour seats than ken, so I would declare you the winner

Smashed it

 

[Smores]

Let me be clear, she's gone by the end of the week

Not so sure, a leadership challenge will take time and on what basis can they negotiate on Brexit.

Think she'll refuse to stand down

 

[Untied]

So is the actual majority needed 322? Something related to Sinn Fein?

650 seats in parliament. But Sinn Fein have 7 seats (up 3 from last time) that they do not take up, which leaves 643. Minus the Speaker and you are at 642 which requires 322 seats for a functional majority.

 

[Silva]

You should know it anecdotally anyway unless you live in a cave.

What I know anecdotally is that people with higher education tend to be better learners - having self teaching skills, and are better equipped for a contemporary jobs economy where people don't have 40-50 year careers, but rather have a new job every few years. But then, anecdotal evidence never counts for much.

 

[Scrumpet]

The odd thing about the DUP's role as kingmaker is that a Conservative government is their best case scenario anyway. They have nothing to gain from another election. They don't really need to be wooed.

 

[Untied]

Not so sure, a leadership challenge will take time and on what basis can they negotiate on Brexit.

Think she'll refuse to stand down

I find it impossible to predict what Theresa May will do. But she'll be gone soon, whether she is pushed or jumps.

 

[NinjaFletch]

You Corbyn in or out now?

I'm still not confident he's secure, there may be moves to challenge thinking a Labour sans-Corbyn may do even better. Hard to say

He outperformed Milliband in terms of vote share.

The odd thing about the DUP's role as kingmaker is that a Conservative government is their best case scenario anyway. They have nothing to gain from another election. They don't really need to be wooed.

The disagree on a fair amount and they would be foolish not to cash in on it.

 

[Smores]

I love the idea of a pissed off May this morning and Boris scheming

 

[Fergies Gum]

650 seats in parliament. But Sinn Fein have 7 seats (up 3 from last time) that they do not take up, which leaves 643. Minus the Speaker and you are at 642 which requires 322 seats for a functional majority.

That explains it.

So is Ashcroft right then just to get a majority, its 320 seats needed when you remove the speakers?

 

[Scrumpet]

That explains it.

So is Ashcroft right then just to get a majority, its 320 seats needed when you remove the speakers?

But the Tories' 319 includes the Speaker and 1 Deputy Speaker

 

[Rolandofgilead]

We have come this far we might as well hope the DUP say no and watch the panic

 

[Damien]

So this all about lazy millenials who couldn't get out of bed to vote in the referendum then got caught up in Corbyn's student union rhetoric enough to belatedly engage in politics? They didn't stop Brexit when they has the chance and now they've fatally undermined the Uk's hand in the negotiations.

May did that by calling the election when there was no real need to, serving a manifesto that could crudely - but accurately - be described as a shit sandwich with nothing to really tempt voters to go blue to increase that majority and made the election about the one issue (Brexit). The smear campaign seems to have worked against them as well - as @Jippy alludes to.

Mine is now reasonably safe Labour, after the boundary move. Weird thing is, despite voting Tory at every GE until this one, I couldn't give a shit that they are having a stinker- Labour have fought a cleaner campaign, Corbyn has principles and May has to go.

---

Ultimately, nobody wanted another election and they paid the price by losing their majority.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I love the idea of a pissed off May this morning and Boris scheming

The idea of Boris scheming makes me feel nauseous. Such a devious prick of a man. May is incompetent, sure, but there's a whiff of pure evil coming off Boris.

 

[Fergies Gum]

But the Tories' 319 includes the Speaker and 1 Deputy Speaker

So Ashcroft is wrong?

 

[esmufc07]

How the feck is she not resigning!

 

[MoskvaRed]

Looks like the Conservative civil war over Europe is set to rumble on. A hard brexit deal could be scuppered by just a handful of remain Tories, while soft Brexit (meaning concessions made to the EU) will have the right wing howling about betrayal. All in all, I don't see how they can form a functional government, irrespective of the DUP. It looks like a second general election is unavoidable, and again it's hard to see a viable unity candidate - Johnson was a key figure in the whole Brexit mess, Davies is too hardline (and also totally out of his depth I suspect), Davidson was perhaps too pro-Remain to be credible.

 

[Damien]

How the feck is she not resigning!

Strong and stable Brexit. Her resigning would throw it into chaos... not that her calling the snap election and losing the majority hasn't done that already. Whoops.

 

[Untied]

That explains it.

So is Ashcroft right then just to get a majority, its 320 seats needed when you remove the speakers?

Yeah I forgot about the 3 deputy speakers so that brings it down to 639 which is the Ashcroft 320 for a majority. But as @Scrumpet said you also need to subtract the Speaker and 1 deputy speaker from the Conservative total. So Cons still need to win/reach 322 to govern.

 

[Smores]

The idea of Boris scheming makes me feel nauseous. Such a devious prick of a man. May is incompetent, sure, but there's a whiff of pure evil coming off Boris.

I only say that as he'd be a disaster for them

 

[NinjaFletch]

So this all about lazy millenials who couldn't get out of bed to vote in the referendum then got caught up in Corbyn's student union rhetoric enough to belatedly engage in politics? They didn't stop Brexit when they has the chance and now they've fatally undermined the Uk's hand in the negotiations.

This is such a lazy and inaccurate narrative.

 

[Ubik]

Theresa May comes out in 20 minutes - "Nothing has changed. Nothing has changed!"

 

[Smores]

In this case it should go to percentage. Lab Lib coaltion clearly has the biggest vote share.

The country voted for progressive parties

 

[pauldyson1uk]

The idea of Boris scheming makes me feel nauseous. Such a devious prick of a man. May is incompetent, sure, but there's a whiff of pure evil coming off Boris.

He scares me more than anybody, would rather have May than him.

 

[dumbo]

 

[Silva]

Why the feck is this interviewer asking if Labour will form a government? It's obviously not going to happen, ask him something that matters.

 

[Smores]

Why the feck is this interviewer asking if Labour will form a government? It's obviously not going to happen, ask him something that matters.

He sounds pissed off doesnt he, either a tory or just tired and grouchy

 

[Ubik]

Corbyn with a good point about EU nationals, people largely agree on that and it's a solid thing to push the Tories on.

Why the feck is this interviewer asking if Labour will form a government? It's obviously not going to happen, ask him something that matters.

Corbyn and McDonnell have been saying it themselves, can't blame the interviewer.

 

[Manny]

 

[Silva]

Corbyn and McDonnell have been saying it themselves, can't blame the interviewer.

For fecks sake.

 

[dumbo]

No way can the Tories step aside now, even if they wanted to.