Paris voted anti the right
French National Elections
- Thread starter TwoSheds
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran are here to talk about a frustrating 2 points dropped at Crystal Palace. They then discuss the regeneration of Old Trafford. Finally, Nik is joined by special guest Michael Statham from the Football Oranje podcast - who gives us a more in depth look at our EL opposition FC Twente, and then runs through the (many) Dutch connections currently at United.
No. Le Pen wanted Bardella to appeal to younger voters
Wow - and I thought the UK was divided! France is absolutely nuts. Could a coalition between Macron and the Republicans get them to the required number to govern? They hard left would go mad and riot but they seem to be doing that anyway even with their victory so much of a muchness there
No Ensemble would need to have a coalition with LR and a part of NFP which is kind of complicated.
Brilliant from Macron tbh. He now holds power which way to swing.
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan , Farage's old mate, and presidential candidate lost his seat. Shame.
Isn't that one of the more likely outcomes? For the new left to form a government it would require them to unite behind one leader and find enough from Ensemble to back their proposed government - also, what are they standing for now RN are defeated? Obviously there are other pressing issues, but this instability is going to spook the markets and it's nuts that, amidst all this, the Olympics will be taking place. I'm not sure which major event plays backdrop to which.
Le Pen didn't win any seats in Paris.
No surprises there
He got an extraordinary amount of shit in France for calling that election (according to my one French dwelling friend). But it does seem that, whether by luck or judgement, he’s got a better result than virtually anyone predicted.
The most sane and savvy voters among the leading Western countries.
Of course. The only question about Paris is the turnout. If Paris votes, the far right is in trouble.
Does France allow the "winner" first attempt to form a government? Or is it a free-for-all and all parties can talk to each other?
That's the biggest surpise.
I was absolutely convinced that RN would come first by a margin, albeit without the absolute majority, followed by NFP and Ensemble as a distant third. You can say that Macron's gamble paid off, even if it's a bit of a pyrrhic victory.
Glad my predictions were wrong though. There's still hope.
Hey now, Ireland aren't bad to be fair. Not that we elect the right parties, but we've generally avoided giving the far-right much headroom.
Well, they need not worry, as long as Biden stays on the ballot it will be next to impossible to lose this election, despite the rights best effort to throw the election themselves.
They got first in popular vote, but not "by a margin". And clearly for most voters, they are not yet in top 2 options.
Macron's centrist movement may be no longer people's first choice, but they are everybody's preferred second choice, with this in mind it is not fair to have them third in number of seats.
Some people really think Macron pulled off a strategic win out of this ?
He lost MPs every election. Supposedly the snap election was to "clarify" after the assembly became semi-gridlocked to his governance. The situation is even worse there now.
He limited the damage from being wiped outright of relevance but that is it.
He lost MPs every election. Supposedly the snap election was to "clarify" after the assembly became semi-gridlocked to his governance. The situation is even worse there now.
He limited the damage from being wiped outright of relevance but that is it.
It’s Macron’s call. I’m sure that he will be checking all options right now.
Also, he wants Attal to remain prime minister for now.
The left says they'll convene of possible names for taking the role but I think in the text the President is free to call whoever.
However whoever and his whoever cabinet need to pass a validation vote before the assembly.
Realistically the forces in Parliament would first talk to settle on someone that the President would accept to call in and could pass a majority vote.
Congrats to France for waring off the right wing extemists. Hopefully you build on the win because sadly this brand of politics and ideology is working and growing the world over.
Also Thuram and Mbappe have my respect for standing up and speaking when it counts.
Also Thuram and Mbappe have my respect for standing up and speaking when it counts.
I only spotted white people, they didn't even hire some actors to at least make it appear that their coalition is diverese?
They got a lot of learn from Trump, in terms of marketing.
There was nothing "brilliant" about this at all, or about anything Macron has done in ages. Ridiculous to present it otherwise?
I'm sorry, but what? The far right is getting stronger with every passing election, have grown their representation in the AN, massively won the European elections, and are more and more supported in the country with every passing election.
Just because the electoral system meant they didn't win the overwhelming majority that might have been expected, they're in a very strong position.
They were the party with the most votes, but the electoral system isn't the reason they didn't get an overwhelming majority. They would "merely" have been the largest of three parties.
But it's still a worrying trend, and certainly no Macron masterplan. By many accounts he had to be persuaded to cooperate with the left to block RN anyway, which is the reason they won the 3rd most seats on the most votes.
Several projections after the 1st round were showing they could have the majorité absolue, but fair enough.
It's just that, while I'm relieved it wasn't the anticipated disaster, it's still not a great day for France and anyone trying to pass this off as some sort of stroke of genius by Macron is completely crazy.
It's still a great day IMO, considering the alternative.
It's a relief rather than a great day. It's worrying for the future, both immediate (what kind of government can be formed) and long term (next Presidential election). I'd even argue that not winning yesterday might turn out to be a positive for RN in the long run.
Past the initial giddiness of not having handed the reins of the country to the fascists, I'm not feeling particularly elated today.
I expected the far right to take power, very relieved they didn't.
Maybe Macron winged it, or perhaps his thoughts are just too complex for most of us to understand?
Maybe Macron winged it, or perhaps his thoughts are just too complex for most of us to understand?
Those projections are highly flawed, they are based on the idea that there would be very little transfers of votes which is quite obviously wrong in normal circumstances but even more wrong when you consider the nature of NFP and Ensemble which are largely made of center left and center candidates. As an example in my district centrist votes where totally split between 4 centrist candidates, we had one centrist from LR, two centrists from EELV(one under NFP and the other under EELV) and then one candidate from Ensemble(but a former PS member). In the first round one of the NFP Green finished second close behind RN but beat him easily in the second because logically the vast majority of people can transfer their vote to any of the 4 centrists.
And that's symptomatic of the larger issue, people that are largely close politically decided to fight each others on minutiae, ultimately they all damaged themselves to the benefit of RN.
No he is a self absorbed moron. The country is just very centrist.
All projections are flawed, and they use different methodologies depending on the institute, including the report de voix. It's not true to say that area wasn't considered. Pretending yesterday wasn't a massive surprise for everyone involved is a little bit disingenuous, especially considering all the noises last week and the info coming out about the omnipresent defeatism there was.
Yeah we definitely agree on that. Well, I'd say the country leans to the right, but the Macron part.
As expected, most Europeans are in general just too effectively vaccinated in the centrist anti-fascist tradition for a party like RN to actually take power. The reality is they just aren't, and probably won't be for the foreseeable future, popular enough to win if the centre and left gang up on them.
Even if they somehow overcome those obstacles and win a narrow absolute majority, they won't be able to effectively implement the changes they want to a satistying degree when they're operating in a system completely hostile to them. This weird new alliance will have to make an absolute mess of it for Le Pen to have any realistic chance in 2027. The fear mongering about the rise of the so called far right really is overblown and mostly used to mask the failures of the current political establishment.
Even if they somehow overcome those obstacles and win a narrow absolute majority, they won't be able to effectively implement the changes they want to a satistying degree when they're operating in a system completely hostile to them. This weird new alliance will have to make an absolute mess of it for Le Pen to have any realistic chance in 2027. The fear mongering about the rise of the so called far right really is overblown and mostly used to mask the failures of the current political establishment.
RN is steadily gaining more support over time. The electoral system, tactical voting and agreements between other parties kept them out yesterday but will their rival parties have the discipline to continue doing this in future elections? RN will have the advantage of not being the government, so can benefit from the likely paralysis of whichever fragile coalition is trying to govern, and any consequent disaffection of voters. Not a great outlook for la France.
Agree with the bolded.