French National Elections

Nani Nana said:
See how Meloni changed her stance once she arrived in power though. The French far right has done the same and ditched most "controversial" measures from its programme.

They say it is easy to push for bold initiatives when you are at 5% in the polls than when you are at 50% and need to find a consensus.

In the end the far right will disappoint if they ever reach the presidential office in France. You cannot have your cake and eat it, implement national preference and then argue for more purchasing power.

If you buy a French bike rather than a Chinese one, you strengthen employment in France but your purchasing power goes down.
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It doesn't matter. By that time it will be too late, the damage done and the flood gates will open.

The RN is a racist nationalist and euro sceptic party, just like the AfD or the Fdl, but also the untried alternative. The main target is the immigration, especially the arab/muslim community which has been completely demonized for years and considered as the main culprit for all the country's woes. On that, there's a large consensus among the population, and it will certainly not disturb the European establishment since it's the same everywhere else. That's the bone the RN will throw to the French. If Le Pen has to compromize on other topics for a while, then so be it. I don't think that she'll lose sleep over it.

As for Meloni, here's an interesting article about her style of governance. She's acting quite skilfully, step by step, carefully working on her image: a traditionalist conservative, but not a cavewoman. She's not rocking the boat (too much) on a domestic and european level. I'm fairly certain that a lot of would be far-right presidentials are taking notes, oddly enough just like her biggest idol was teaching take-over lessons about a hundred years ago.

When enough of these assholes are at the helm of the most relevant European countries (France and Germany will suffice), then it will be time to go into second gear. And if it comes that far, the EU is dead in my opinion.

Also friendly reminder, Trump's presidency was a disaster yet (probably more than) half of the US will still vote for him in November 2024.
 
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That_Bloke said:
It doesn't matter. By that time it will be too late, the damage done and the flood gates will open.

The RN is a racist nationalist and euro sceptic party, just like the AfD or the Fdl, but also the untried alternative. The main target is the immigration, especially the arab/muslim community which has been completely demonized for years and the main culprit for the country's woes. On that, there's a large consensus among the population and it will certainly not rock the european boat, since it's the same everywhere else. That's the bone the RN will throw to the French. If Le Pen has to compromize on other topics for a while, then so be it. I don't think that she'll lose sleep over it.

As for Meloni, here's an interesting article about her style of governance. She's acting quite skilfully, carefully working on her image: a traditionalist conservative but not a cavewoman. She's not rocking the boat (too much) on a domestic and european level. I'm fairly certain that a lot of would be far-right presidentials are taking notes, oddly enough just like her biggest idol.

When enough of these assholes are at the helm of the most relevant European countries (France and Germany will suffice), then it will be time to go into second gear. And if it comes that far, the EU is dead in my opinion.

Also, friendly reminder, Trump's presidency was a disaster, yet (probably more than) half of the US will still vote for him in November 2024.
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At this stage, Meloni is the standard center-right politician. She has been more similar to Angela Merkel, than say Orban or Trump.

If Le Pen goes similar, her inevitably winning won’t be the tragedy many expect it to be.
 
Revan said:
At this stage, Meloni is the standard center-right politician. She has been more similar to Angela Merkel, than say Orban or Trump.

If Le Pen goes similar, her inevitably winning won’t be the tragedy many expect it to be.
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In terms of values, Meloni's nowhere near of Angela Merkel for whom I have an extraordinary amount of respect, but she certainly learned from her.

Meloni is a very skilled opportunist and a crook, more in line with Berlusconi but without the bravado and a more polished profile.

Le Pen winning would be an absolute tragedy for France and Europe. There's no understating that.
 
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Revan said:
At this stage, Meloni is the standard center-right politician. She has been more similar to Angela Merkel, than say Orban or Trump.

If Le Pen goes similar, her inevitably winning won’t be the tragedy many expect it to be.
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At this stage, Meloni doesn’t have her own majority… She is completely reliant on her alliance with the traditional right. If Le Pen gets power now with a minority government it will be similar for the beginning. Even though the electoral system in France does make it possible for a party with 30% support to end up with presidential and parliamentary power if there isn’t a majority against it in the second rounds. As long as you scare more than 50% of the voters, scare them enough to vote against then you can’t win in France…

I believe the British system is scarier. Once Reform have taken over the Tories it will be much easier for them to win a landslide in the UK electoral system. If France had this british system Le Pen would have won a majority last week as I believe her party came first in 297 constituencies with the Left getting 155 and Macron’s party only 62…
 
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Pintu said:
At this stage, Meloni doesn’t have her own majority… She is completely reliant on her alliance with the traditional right. If Le Pen gets power now with a minority government it will be similar for the beginning. Even though the electoral system in France does make it possible for a party with 30% support to end up with presidential and parliamentary power if there isn’t a majority against it in the second rounds. As long as you scare more than 50% of the voters

I believe the British system is scarier. Once Reform have taken over the Tories it will be much easier for them to win a landslide in the UK electoral system. If France had this british system Le Pen would have won her absolute majority last week as I believe her party came first in 297 constituencies with the Left getting 155 and Macron’s party only 62…
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Hence the low profile, for now.

Being PM without the absolute majority is essentially being a lame duck. The RN could be a nuisance for Macron but wouldn't have the means to achieve anything relevant. Both sides would short-circuit each other. That's why Bardella won't take it.

2027 is Le Pen's real aim and time is on her side.
 
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That_Bloke said:
Hence the low profile, for now.

Beim PM without the absolute majority is essentially being a lame duck. The RN could be a nuisance for Macron but wouldn't have the means to achieve anything relevant. Both sides would shortcut each other. That's why Bardella won't take it.

2027 is Le Pen's real aim and time is on her side.
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As long as the opposition’s can’t gather on a “No confidence vote” against your government there is a lot you can do. Attal and Borne before him didn’t have a majority either, and they got the Pension reform through…


At 5:15 she says they’d turn to other MPs and try to obtain that majority.

 
Pintu said:
At this stage, Meloni doesn’t have her own majority… She is completely reliant on her alliance with the traditional right. If Le Pen gets power now with a minority government it will be similar for the beginning. Even though the electoral system in France does make it possible for a party with 30% support to end up with presidential and parliamentary power if there isn’t a majority against it in the second rounds. As long as you scare more than 50% of the voters, scare them enough to vote against then you can’t win in France…

I believe the British system is scarier. Once Reform have taken over the Tories it will be much easier for them to win a landslide in the UK electoral system. If France had this british system Le Pen would have won a majority last week as I believe her party came first in 297 constituencies with the Left getting 155 and Macron’s party only 62…
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It is fine to criticise the UK election process.
But at least it was an open election decided by the voting public.

However, while I don't pretend to fully understand the French voting system, it appears to me that the outcome can be manipulated by a group of disperste parties to try and tactically stop another party to win the election.
That is different to tactical voting.
 
berbatrick said:
does anyone know his plan here?

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centrist-brain huffing his own farts.

To try and mess up the strategic voting of both parties/groupings is a joke. The only rational thing you could suggest is that he thought RN would not govern without a full majority as promised? But in what universe do you believe the word of anyone from RN?
 
Pintu said:
I believe the British system is scarier. Once Reform have taken over the Tories it will be much easier for them to win a landslide in the UK electoral system. If France had this british system Le Pen would have won a majority last week as I believe her party came first in 297 constituencies with the Left getting 155 and Macron’s party only 62…
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Except a British party or paliament as a whole can reverse or remove a terrible choice, as was shown with Truss. Macron seems not only untouchable but able to destroy his elected government at will.
 
711 said:
Except a British party or paliament as a whole can reverse or remove a terrible choice, as was shown with Truss. Macron seems not only untouchable but able to destroy his elected government at will.
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Good point.
 
Buster15 said:
Good point.
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And over in the US they don't seem to be able to remove an obviously badly chosen candidate even before he's officially candidate, never mind after he's actually elected. Or the other guy wins, who claims without any evidence that the last election was fixed, and won't necessarily abide by the next result either.

Britain may not have a written constitution but I wouldn't swap for the French or American at any rate. Although we do have the Lords, I'd abolish that overnight and work out the rest later.
 
711 said:
And over in the US they don't seem to be able to remove an obviously badly chosen candidate even before he's officially candidate, never mind after he's actually elected. Or the other guy wins, who claims without any evidence that the last election was fixed, and won't necessarily abide by the next result either.

Britain may not have a written constitution but I wouldn't swap for the French or American at any rate. Although we do have the Lords, I'd abolish that overnight and work out the rest later.
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The House of Lords did a very good job of trying to keep the government in check over the ridiculous Rwanda scheme didn't they.
 
Buster15 said:
It is fine to criticise the UK election process.
But at least it was an open election decided by the voting public.

However, while I don't pretend to fully understand the French voting system, it appears to me that the outcome can be manipulated by a group of disperste parties to try and tactically stop another party to win the election.
That is different to tactical voting.
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Parties place candidates in selective constituencies as they do in the UK.

Voters can vote for who they like including tactical voting.

The Uk public can't remove the Prime Minister. Only the party or they resign. They don't even get to vote for them directly.

There are two houses in Parliament like in the UK.

The Senate and the National Assembly - both are voted for unlike the UK where the Lords isn't.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Parties place candidates in selective constituencies as they do in the UK.

Voters can vote for who they like including tactical voting.

The Uk public can't remove the Prime Minister. Only the party or they resign. They don't even get to vote for them directly.

There are two houses in Parliament like in the UK.

The Senate and the National Assembly - both are voted for unlike the UK where the Lords isn't.
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Parliament as a whole can remove the prime minister as well, a vote of no confidence would result in a general election. Yes, the Lords should go.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's the same in both, yes. Not the public only the MPs
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But not 'only the party', which is the bit I corrected you on.

What would it take to remove a duff president in France? I guess there is something like impeachment if they're actually criminal, although only guessing, but what if they were just spectacularly shit like Truss?
 
711 said:
But not 'only the party', which is the bit I corrected you on.

What would it take to remove a duff president in France? I guess there is something like impeachment if they're actually criminal, although only guessing, but what if they were just spectacularly shit like Truss?
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Probably. He may resign if it became untenable. At this moment in time all other possibilities are considerably worse.
 
711 said:
Except a British party or paliament as a whole can reverse or remove a terrible choice, as was shown with Truss. Macron seems not only untouchable but able to destroy his elected government at will.
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Macron can be impeached, it takes a majority of two thirds, says article 68 of the constitution. Then again he isn’t the only head of the executive branch. The PM can be removed by the Parliament.


Buster15 said:
It is fine to criticise the UK election process.
But at least it was an open election decided by the voting public.

However, while I don't pretend to fully understand the French voting system, it appears to me that the outcome can be manipulated by a group of disperste parties to try and tactically stop another party to win the election.
That is different to tactical voting.
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Not really. A candidate can chose to drop out from a runoff and thereby give the voters a clear choice between the only 2 candidates who actually got a shot at winning. This means you will need over 50% to win the constituency. In France the first round kind of works like a primary… still, not a very good system. I believe proportional system (at least for part of the Parliament) is a necessity.


The winner taking it all in one round with under 35% of the votes is quite bizarre. A vote for Labor was worth 22 times more than a vote for Greens and 44 times a vote for Reform. This is not good for democracy. A Parliament is supposed to represent the will of the people.

GRtZ0bzacAEI17Q
 
Pintu said:
Macron can be impeached, it takes a majority of two thirds, says article 68 of the constitution. Then again he isn’t the only head of the executive branch. The PM can be removed by the Parliament.



Not really. A candidate can chose to drop out from a runoff and thereby give the voters a clear choice between the only 2 candidates who actually got a shot at winning. This means you will need over 50% to win the constituency. In France the first round kind of works like a primary… still, not a very good system. I believe proportional system (at least for part of the Parliament) is a necessity.


The winner taking it all in one round with under 35% of the votes is quite bizarre. A vote for Labor was worth 22 times more than a vote for Greens and 44 times a vote for Reform. This is not good for democracy. A Parliament is supposed to represent the will of the people.

GRtZ0bzacAEI17Q
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Yeah the UK had a referendum on PR but it was cleverly worded to fail, in that it could have resulted in a list system where people would not know which individual they were voting for, and their vote could go to a party member they did not want. That's how I perceived it anyway so I voted against. I would say yes to something like a single transferable vote though.

It would probably take a coalition to bring that in, which might or might not happen.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Parties place candidates in selective constituencies as they do in the UK.

Voters can vote for who they like including tactical voting.

The Uk public can't remove the Prime Minister. Only the party or they resign. They don't even get to vote for them directly.

There are two houses in Parliament like in the UK.

The Senate and the National Assembly - both are voted for unlike the UK where the Lords isn't.
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Thank you for this.
 
Turn out almost 60% around 5pm, expected to be around 67.1% at closing time, higher than in the first round and one of the highest in the last 50 years. Hope it means young people have voted in bigger numbers.
 
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lonelyred said:
Turn out almost 60% around 5pm, expected to be around 67.1% at closing time, higher than in the first round and the highest since 1978. Hope it means young people have voted in bigger numbers.
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Aren't young people in France trending pretty right wing at the moment though?
 
Blood Mage said:
Aren't young people in France trending pretty right wing at the moment though?
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Hard to know. Split seems to be dominated by rural (right) v city (left) across most regions of France - but that's also got a demographic built in - cities tend to be younger. I guess we'll know more in the next few days once the second round results unroll.
 
Some leaks say the Left coalition is first and Macron‘s coalition might just get ahead of RN…

 
Nice nice nice
 
Looks like the big turnout and the last minute alliances have done what was needed to keep Le Pen's mob out.
 
Well french twitter is going to be sad tonight.
 
The crazy thing about this is that while people don't realise it yet, Ensemble won. Both RN( with LR) and NFP are made of people that have very different political ideas and don't like each others. They won't be together in 2025. Also the country is now literally ungovernable.
 
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