Can we interpret this as people turning out to stop the Far Right?
French National Elections
- Thread starter TwoSheds
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran are here to talk about a frustrating 2 points dropped at Crystal Palace. They then discuss the regeneration of Old Trafford. Finally, Nik is joined by special guest Michael Statham from the Football Oranje podcast - who gives us a more in depth look at our EL opposition FC Twente, and then runs through the (many) Dutch connections currently at United.
Can we interpret this as people turning out to stop the Far Right?
That’s a possibility.
Another possibility: the far right shows up in big numbers because they feel that this is their opportunity.
We will know in 10 minutes.
The far right is projected to have the biggest number of seats. Got about 35% of the vote according to the estimates of TF1.
The New Popular Front with about 30%.
The New Popular Front with about 30%.
Probably the other way round.
It will be hard to see an absolute majority for RN, but that remains a possibility. Generally, RN seems to stuck at about 35%-40% in recent elections. Can they crack 50%? Can Le Pen get to 50% in a presidential election? That’s the biggest question.
Cheers. Will be interesting to what the results are with the high turnout.
Yikes!
François Hollande came first in my constituency in the first round.
The Left have just announced they will stand down in 100+ seats where they place 3rd. Not sure this is going to be quite as simple for the NR as the headlines are suggesting, particularly if Macron returns the favour, and I would say a flat out majority is going to be near on impossible for them.
Looks like he will. Lot of tactical voting next week.
@nimic
the youth is left, people who were around during/after ww2 are centrist. everyone else is right.
Not really.
They might not obtain the absolute majority in these elections but MLP and the RN ruling France is now a matter of time. There's no turning back.
France is fecked.
Well, that's shit.
You should be sceptical of anyone speaking with absolute certainty when we're in pretty unchartered waters.
Absolutely. It seems pretty bleak though, not just in France either.
France may end up governed by RN. That’s a possibility.
But, 1) so far, it has resisted the far right reasonably well. The French could’ve voted for Le Pen on 2017, just after Brexit and Trump winning. Instead they voted against her by 2-1 margin. They said no to her in 2022 as well.
2) her party got 33%. That’s bigger than ever, but that means two thirds didn’t vote for this party.
3) I wonder if, in a presidential election, there will be some RN voters who won’t vote for Le Pen as president, because of her name.
So, RN made progress, but I’m not sure yet that reaching the Élysée Palace is a forgone conclusion.
But, 1) so far, it has resisted the far right reasonably well. The French could’ve voted for Le Pen on 2017, just after Brexit and Trump winning. Instead they voted against her by 2-1 margin. They said no to her in 2022 as well.
2) her party got 33%. That’s bigger than ever, but that means two thirds didn’t vote for this party.
3) I wonder if, in a presidential election, there will be some RN voters who won’t vote for Le Pen as president, because of her name.
So, RN made progress, but I’m not sure yet that reaching the Élysée Palace is a forgone conclusion.
Macron’s failure to convince any of the segments under 50 years old is shocking…
I realize I'm in the minority regarding this, but they want to work and stay within the current order/system, not throw it all away. They'll try to change it from within, but in the end I'm sceptical they'll even manage much of that. Reading Politico and similar publications you'd think they intend to immediately withdraw from NATO, leave the EU, expel all people with brown skin, and cause a financial crisis wihin the first year or something. Meloni was also supposed to be the end of the world, but in the end there isn't a radical bone in most of these so called far right politicians.
Perfectly legitimate to find it bleak, though, depending on your political leanings. But this confident and assertive fear mongering about how this is an unstoppable tidal wave of fascism is quite ridiculous. Everything might turn to shit at any time, any place, but I doubt western civilization will collapse because Jordan Bardella might be made PM. There's plenty of time for unexpected and unforeseen things to happen even before the next presidential elections. I know you just asked a simple question though, I don't mean to start some grand debate
Shouldn’t the title of this thread be renamed French National Socialists Elections?
None of them actually talk about people under retirement age. Anyone under 65 basically has to chose between people that do not talk to them, ever.
Nah, you're going down.
The French society is ripe for a far-right takeover. 11/13 changed everything, just like 9/11 wrecked the US. Fair fecks to MLP who perfectly read the domestic as well as the international room and masterfully surfed on the nationalistic wave.
Take consolation in knowing that that you're not the first and certainly not the last in Europe. Germany is diligently following your footsteps.
You'll make quite the ripple though.
Do you think that there will be someone like Edouard Philippe or other who will take Macron's place in 2027 and that Mélenchon will finally be gone and stop the divisiveness of the left and him stopping people voting for the left?
RN did less well than I feared.
I have no idea. But with the way(including last night) everyone still refuse to actually pull their fingers and offer something other than "vote against RN" or "vote against everyone other than me", I'm not optimistic.
Melenchon and the other left parties seem to be withdrawing their 3rd place candidates, Macron hasn't done the same vs LFI, and his minister explicitly called for the opposite.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...081d94ff3d3738#block-6682099a8f081d94ff3d3738
Attal who is the one leading the majority, made the exact same request and comments than Mélenchon. In both cases the argument is not vote for RN because the reality is that they have no other good argument to vote for them and before yesterday it was the same story. Don't vote for the RN-The Macronie or don't vote for RN-The extreme left, it's the entire extent of debate in french politics.
I don't think the majority of Europeans want that or are ready for that, but okay, we don't agree about that. I'm curious though, in what way do you expect things to dramatically change in practical terms over the next 10 years as a consequence of this? Quite a broad topic so I obviously don't expect a full essay, but would be interested in general thoughts if you want to share.
Last edited:
Despite this extremely clear data, this is the quote the Guardian chose:
Reminder that the Brexit people had a point about experts
No doubt there would have been a Syrian to take the blame. Russian 'active measures' have always been the greatest threat they pose, not their military. They are winning.
Am I wrong to think that the simplest answer to keep the crazies out is the left coalition drop candidates that hurt Macron's party and Macron's party drop all the candidates that will stop leftists winning? I get the fact that Macron's faction is scared of "communists" and the leftists are scared of "neoliberals", but don't they have the combine vote to just kill this off threat?
It has already happened, 218 candidates dropped.
well thank feck for that
Guess the podcast i listened to recently had been recorded earlier.
Only question now is whether the far right gets an absolute or a relative majority. If the former, they can do whatever they like for the next few years. If the latter, France remains an ungovernable mess.
I personally think they are. They're just not loud about it and the numbers don't lie.
The far-right has been constantly on the rise at a very fast rate for the last 20 years. It has recently been boosted by terrorist attacks, the massive immigration wave of 2015, COVID and now the war in Ukraine. There's also been a normalization of racism and xenophobia, in the political discourses without anyone really batting an eyelid.
The incredible lack of leadership and a clear vision from the traditional parties, who continue to either pander to the far-right voters or tear each other apart, are pushing even the moderate voters who don't necessarily ideologically adhere to all the far-right ideas into the arms of Meloni, Le Pen, Weidel and the likes.
Given the current political spectrum, the dire economic situation in which the war in Ukraine is playing a notable part, and the absence of real political figures in the liberal camp, I don't see the tendency reversing itself. On the contrary the far-right will only see its numbers grow in the coming years.
See how Meloni changed her stance once she arrived in power though. The French far right has done the same and ditched most "controversial" measures from its programme.
They say it is easy to push for bold initiatives when you are at 5% in the polls than when you are at 50% and need to find a consensus.
In the end the far right will disappoint if they ever reach the presidential office in France. You cannot have your cake and eat it, implement national preference and then argue for more purchasing power.
If you buy a French bike rather than a Chinese one, you strengthen employment in France but your purchasing power goes down.