A search.French Elections 2017
- Thread starter Cheesy
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A search.
Interesting development in France: Fillon aides and supporting politicians withdraw support, Juppé appear to be no longer totally reluctant to jump in if need be. Also interesting new polls by Odoxa with Macron overtaking Le Pen in 1st round and Juppé (1st) and Macron (2nd) to battle in second round in case Juppé replaces Fillon.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...-pen-in-france-as-juppe-looms-over-fillon-bid
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...-pen-in-france-as-juppe-looms-over-fillon-bid
Fillon's surely done at this point, would be a big blow for his party to come third considering it was there for the taking for them.
Juppé replacing Fillon is bad news for Macron, right?
Depends how well Le Pen holds up. If he's knocked to third it's obviously disastrous, but if not he might have a chance. The only hypothetical polling I can see has Macron losing out to Juppe comfortably, but Juppe may struggle to regain momentum if he rejoins the race in that he'll look like a 'forced' candidate who had to jump in at the last moment. Could be wrong though.
The Odoxa poll suggests that Macron would be 2nd to Juppé in 1st round but would enter the crucial second round. Then it's a matter of what those supporters do whose preferred candidates don't make into the second round, i.e. the ones who vote for one of the left candidates.
Yeah, it is a bit up in the air, but you would have put good money on Macron making it to the second tour after the whole Fillon fiasco. It's all very tight if Juppé comes back in play
Fillon still digging in, judging by the reports of his rally today, as another poll comes out showing that Juppe would be in a comfortable second place if he was the candidate. Is the 15th the deadline for changing the candidate?
Yes still digging in, he hasn't much hope even if he was innocent, they should change asap if the Republicans want to win. I think 17th March is the last date.
Fillon is just a fool. How can he resist in this way?
Latest poll I've seen is he's dropped to 17% in the first round with Le Pen 26% and Macron at 25%
If Juppé entered the race instead 27% Le Pen, 25.5% Juppé and 20% Macron
Additionally 58% say they would never vote for Fillon now and 53% would never vote for Le Pen
That's alarming in itself.
It suggests that Fillon has no hope whatsoever and won't qualify for the 2nd round , and if he stays Macron should easily beat Le Pen in the second round and if he stepped down Juppé would also win the second round but Macron would be eliminated
I assume that French sources provide more details but German TV and radio stations report French conservatives will meet today to discuss how to proceed. All candidates of the primaries will be present.
The poll you mentioned, @Paul the Wolf , is most likely this one?
The poll you mentioned, @Paul the Wolf , is most likely this one?
Juppé rules himself out.
Looks like we know the two candidates in the run-off already
According to CNN, Fillon said 'Nobody can stop me from running for president'. While this is true, it just shows how full he is of himself, to put his ego over party. Many characteristics of a certain orange someone across the Atlantic...
He is out of his mind. The republicans should force him to retire if they wanted to stand a chance to win.
They were backing him today and with Juppé saying he won't stand - there's no real alternative - madness
Not madness but stupidity. In june, they can dismantle the party.
Maybe it's better for Macron in the end.
Bet he can't believe his luck.
There's an (few months) old NYT (I think) in the dirt outside my apartment. It says Russia may have a new friend in France - with Fillon's picture. It's too covered in dirt to pick up and read.
So, is it Le Pen or Fillon that Putin is backing? (if anyone)
So, is it Le Pen or Fillon that Putin is backing? (if anyone)
Le Pen but with Fillon staying in the race it virtually guarantees Le Pen through to the 2nd round
Mélenchon. It's France, they are probably all taking something from Moscow.
Maybe, I think the headline in mine was a little more definite. Will check when I get home.
Why would Putin back Fillon? Le Pen has been the most vocal about how she wants to improve relations with Russia + her dislike for the EU would be the perfect package for Wladimir.
Putin met Fillon when he was prime minister and the latter likes how "powerful" Putin seems to be and how he puts Russia first.
It's just baffling. This election was served to the Republicans on a silver platter and they flush it down the toilet.
That's why Juppé was the best candidate from the start, he wasn't perfect but he was a solid candidate. At the first opportunity Fillon showed a nasty face and since the party unceremoniously got rid of the guy who cleaned it 2 years ago, they are now stuck with that poor excuse of a man.
What's your theory - if you have one that is - why Fillon won the conservatives primaries? From the outside, Juppé seemed like a good bet and a candidate who appeared to be able to bring the wings of the party together. I understand he had some judicial baggage. Was this an issue or did people review him as too centrist and moderate?
Juppé has never been liked because he isn't really a populist, he will say things that people don't want to hear. It's the only reason why he hasn't been president, people prefer to vote for professional bullshitters. But you are also right about the centrist view with Le Pen being aggressively populist some think that the right needs to match her and be as populist as she is.
Thanks. Regarding the bolded part: Isn't Fillon saying things regarding necessary labor market reforms that people don't want to hear too, or is this consciously 'overlooked' because of the rest of his manifesto/claims?
No, the country is mainly behind him on that, Macron and Juppé are more or less on the same line.