French Elections 2017

soap said:
What would she actually do if she wins, besides try to lead France out of the EU and restrict immigration? Why is the thought of her winning so scary?
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Because she is clueless and offers absolutely nothing for the country.
 
soap said:
You could say that about a whole host of politicians around the world. Why's she much worse?
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She isn't worse, she is like Melenchon, Hollande, dupont aignant and others. We already know that she is useless and has no intention to not be, so since people have had the stupidity to waste 5 years on Hollande, let's not do it with Le Pen and transform 5 years into 10.

Personally, there isn't a single candidate that I like or trust but I'm willing to gamble on Macron because he is an unknown quantity while the others are known shite quantities.
 
My personal opinion is, that the FN winning could end up being much more consequential than the Trump election. Whoever follows Trump in 4 years could un-do most of what he does. There is imo a realistic chance, that you can't say the same about a FN government.
 
PedroMendez said:
My personal opinion is, that the FN winning could end up being much more consequential than the Trump election. Whoever follows Trump in 4 years could un-do most of what he does. There is imo a realistic chance, that you can't say the same about a FN government.
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Without the parliament they have no power at all, Trump is supported by the GOP while the FN is supported by no one. Which is also true with Macron and I don't like it at all.
 
JPRouve said:
Without the parliament they have no power at all, Trump is supported by the GOP while the FN is supported by no one. Which is also true with Macron and I don't like it at all.
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Maybe I am too pessimistic.
I don't think she'd take France out of the EU, but she'd try everything in her power to take France out of the EURO and all bets are off if that happens. The president imo doesn't need the parliament to call a referendum (correct me if I am wrong about this) and I think she could win such a referendum.
 
And if parliament were to ignore the referendum (again), Le Pen would have the option of dissolving parliament and calling fresh elections.

How are the FN projected to perform in the National Assembly btw?
 
PedroMendez said:
Maybe I am too pessimistic.
I don't think she'd take France out of the EU, but she'd try everything in her power to take France out of the EURO and all bets are off if that happens. The president imo doesn't need the parliament to call a referendum (correct me if I am wrong about this) and I think she could win such a referendum.
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Referendums have virtually no power because the parliament can overturn them, remember we voted "no" for the UE constitution. In reality none of the things she said are possible without the parliament, even Hollande struggled with the majority.
 
JPRouve said:
Referendums have virtually no power because the parliament can overturn them, remember we voted "no" for the UE constitution. In reality none of the things she said are possible without the parliament, even Hollande struggled with the majority.
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Overall I understand what you are trying to say and your argument is reasonable and valid. I am just very pessimistic on this specific issue.
 
PedroMendez said:
Overall I understand what you are trying to say and your argument is reasonable and valid. I am just very pessimistic on this specific issue.
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When it comes to french politics, I have been pessimistic for a long time, so I try to not freak out anymore. The reality is that they are all useless.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
And if parliament were to ignore the referendum (again), Le Pen would have the option of dissolving parliament and calling fresh elections.

How are the FN projected to perform in the National Assembly btw?
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The problem she'd inevitably face with any referendum though is that for all the far-right sentiment and support her party garners, there isn't really any indication that France wants to leave the EU. Polls consistently show them as voting to Remain, often by a decent distance too. I'd imagine it's because whereas the UK was always a sort of hanger-on in the EU, kind of half-hearted in our acceptance of it, France were one of the founding members, and are part of the Euro as well; any significant change to their current free movement agreements would potentially have a big impact for people who live very close to bordering nations and travel to them with regularity.

Le Pen would additionally have the problem of being in the only party championing any exit: France's UMP (their conservative party essentially) are more pro-EU than the Tories over here. She'd largely be championing the argument on her own and would presumably have little support, either for getting a vote through parliament, or for then getting it to pass if she can. I'd imagine any French exit would be a lot more chaotic than a British one...a strong push for reform is more advisable on their part.
 
Cheesy said:
The problem she'd inevitably face with any referendum though is that for all the far-right sentiment and support her party garners, there isn't really any indication that France wants to leave the EU. Polls consistently show them as voting to Remain, often by a decent distance too. I'd imagine it's because whereas the UK was always a sort of hanger-on in the EU, kind of half-hearted in our acceptance of it, France were one of the founding members, and are part of the Euro as well; any significant change to their current free movement agreements would potentially have a big impact for people who live very close to bordering nations and travel to them with regularity.

Le Pen would additionally have the problem of being in the only party championing any exit: France's UMP (their conservative party essentially) are more pro-EU than the Tories over here. She'd largely be championing the argument on her own and would presumably have little support, either for getting a vote through parliament, or for then getting it to pass if she can. I'd imagine any French exit would be a lot more chaotic than a British one...a strong push for reform is more advisable on their part.
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As @PedroMendez alluded to, the more likely debate would surround the Euro. Naturally, the UK never had to contend with the issue, yet opposition to the Eurozone (as presently constituted) is consolidating across the continent.

This is all hypothetical stuff of course, and the two-round system is indicating another winner. Irrespective of the names, France seems to be echoing the mood in so many other countries, that of a fracturing electorate.
 
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Organic Potatoes said:
Failed integration of immigrants, along with their 2nd-3rd generation families, is a primary reason parts of Western Europe are in so much trouble in the short to medium term future. Most notably in France.
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Not exactly, the main problem in France is that the youth from all background has been pushed aside and ignored which caused a bigger difficulty to integrate into adult society. Some turned to extremes (right and left wing) and others to religious extremes.
 
Theresa May met Macron today in Downing Street, a bit odd. Not sure how that'll be viewed across the channel.
 
JPRouve said:
Not exactly, the main problem in France is that the youth from all background has been pushed aside and ignored which caused a bigger difficulty to integrate into adult society. Some turned to extremes (right and left wing) and others to religious extremes.
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That, JP, is spot on, unfortunately.

The rate of youth unemplyment in Mediterranian countries is not just socially unacceptable, but is criminal. The EU Politburo must never, ever, be forgiven for causing what is close to becoming a lost and forgotten generation.

But back to Le Pen and the FN....

As a guest of almost 30 years in this fabulous country , I find it astonishing that every Presidential we see the same old failed retreads....You'd think that there MUST be someone here who isn't a liar, fraudster, gangster, racist, or a total and complete failure. But where the hell are they ?

That is why I think Le Pen has a genuine chance - we've already tried the liars, the fraudsters, the gangsters, and the retread failures, but nothing ever changes for the better....But never an outright racist before and who is successfully tapping into the fears and worries of millions after Charlie Hebdo, Bataclan, Brussels, Nice, St Etienne and The Louvre. Add on her anti-EU stance, and she has now become a serious candidate.

A racist as President is not what I want and nor what you want But I do think it's about time for a change from the useless socialists and the even more useless and arrogant conservatives, and sad though it is that the only choice for change happens to be a racist, it would be nice if there was someone else to put the sh*ts up the EUSSR, not just the UK.

And down here in 83, and throughout PACA, there's absolutley no doubt who the majority want to see as President.

My own choice would have been Royal - yeah, I know she's a retread, but a fairly good looking retread who causes me to pay rather unhealthy levels of attention whenever she appears on TV....
 
@JPRouve what do you make of this analysis?

Marine Le Pen: can she win?

In September 2014 I had a post entitled “Can Marine Le Pen win in ’17?,” in which I answered my rhetorical question with a categorical no. Absolutely not. Don’t even think about it. And I have repeated this on numerous occasions since—on AWAV and in social media exchanges—and dismissing while I was at it the hand-wringers and nervous Nellies who fretted that yes, Henny Penny the sky is falling!, she can win—though without any of these Cassandras offering scenarios as to how this could happen. My confident assertions as to the impossibility of Marine Le Pen being elected president of the republic have been based on her disastrous poll numbers over the past seven years—her favorable/unfavorable rating consistently being one of the worst in the French political class (and far worse than Donald Trump’s at any point)—and the fact that in order for her to prevail in the 2nd round of a presidential election, large numbers of voters who otherwise despise and loathe her, and tell pollsters that they would never under any circumstances vote for her, would then go out and do just that: vote for her. Presidential 2nd rounds have the highest turnout of any election in the French system, averaging—minus one unique, very particular exception—83% since universal suffrage was instituted for the office in 1965. So if Marine were to win, some 20 million voters would likely have to vote for her. To date, the highest number of votes the Front National has ever received is 6.8 million in the 2nd round of the 2015 regional elections (with a 58.5% turnout). Somehow I can’t see this skyrocketing to 20M, particularly as MLP’s popularity ratings (deeply negative) have not moved even slightly in the course of the campaign.

But… circumstances do change. The situation evolves. And when circumstances change and situations evolve, I adjust my analyses accordingly. While I still consider a Marine LP victory to be highly unlikely, I no longer categorically rule it out. Anyone reading this is likely aware that Marine is at the top of the 1st round polls, at around 25%, and with three-fourths of those who say they will vote for her definitive in their choice. She is nigh certain to make it to the 2nd round on May 7th. Everyone takes this for granted at this point. The polls show her losing big in the 2nd, but polls change and her projected 2nd round score is creeping upwards. Whatever happens, she will most certainly break 40%.

So how could she win? Here are the scenarios:

  • François Fillon, who, as one knows, is seriously damaged politically, nonetheless manages to rally the LR party base and squeak past Emmanuel Macron and into the 2nd round. Fillon will probably defeat Marine, as a sufficient number of left voters (myself included)—so terrified by the prospect of a Marine victory—will probably vote for him while holding their noses. But large numbers of left voters will not bring themselves to do this, and particularly if Fillon is mis en examen—and he now insists that he’s staying in the race regardless—and doubles down on his Sarkozy-like, hard right rhetoric on immigration and security. The revulsion against Fillon is massive on the left (in a way it was not for Chirac in 2002). If masses of left voters nullify their ballots or stay home, and with a certain number of working class ones who voted Mélenchon in the 1st actually voting for Marine in the 2nd—and one may be sure that she will appeal to this latter cohort in the final phase of the campaign—she could possibly win in a cliffhanger, and particularly if enough conservative LR voters disgusted by Fillon also decide to go for her.
  • Benoît Hamon pulls off a shocker and makes it to the 2nd. In this scenario, Fillon’s support would plunge into the mid-teens, with LR voters defecting to Nicolas Dupont-Aignan or to Marine LP herself, who reaches 30% in the 1st. Likewise with Macron, whose serial flip-flopping, trying to be too many things to too many people, and finally revealed as a political Nowhere Man having benefited from a bulle médiatique would prompt his erstwhile center-left supporters to go with Hamon after all—or to François Bayrou if he enters the race. If Bayrou gets in—and he’ll be making an announcement on this tomorrow—he will most certainly peel off voters from Macron, possibly reaching 10% in the 1st round. In the 2nd round, the left would vote as a block for Hamon but LR voters, who so despise the left—and will simply not accept five more years of the PS in power—will go massively for Marine, particular as she will sweet-talk them to death entre les tours. If centrist voters vote blanc/nul or abstain, Marine may well gain enough votes to break 50%.
  • The nightmare scenario: Fillon’s and Macron’s numbers go south for the aforementioned reasons and with Hamon losing ground on the left to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. With the four candidates all bunched in the mid-teens—and Marine at 30%—Mélenchon ekes out a narrow second place finish and goes on to face MLP on May 7th. The right votes as one for Marine and with centrist and center-left voters emigrating en masse to Canada or maybe killing themselves. And Marine wins.
And there’s more. One thing I have insisted on over the years is that even if, in some outlandish scenario, Marine Le Pen were elected president of the republic, there is no way the FN could possibly win the legislative elections in June. Marine would almost immediately find herself in a cohabitation—and, as one knows, during cohabitations power constitutionally shifts to the prime minister and away from the president. This assertion of mine needs revision. If elected on May 7th, Marine’s first act will be to appoint a prime minister. I guarantee that the man or woman she names will not be from her party. She’ll ask a high-profile hard-right personality from LR, e.g. Laurent Wauquiez, who shares her views on just about everything save Europe (and even then). If she offers the post to Wauquiez, of course he’ll accept. To win over LR support, she’ll compromise on Europe, e.g. postponing her referendum on the euro to an undetermined future date. Marine’s overtures, not to mention the mere fact of her being at the summit of the state, will blow LR apart, with the right-wingers—Sarkozyistes, Copéistes, most Fillonistes—endorsing an alliance with the FN, and the more moderate conservatives—Juppéistes, some Fillonistes—refusing collaboration, rendering inevitable a breakup of the party. The government constituted by a prime minister Wauquiez will include ministers from the FN, LR, DLF, and MPF, i.e. it will be a coalition of the hard and extreme-right, assembled into an enlarged Rassemblement Bleu Marine (RBM). Some hypothetical ministerial appointments: Florian Philippot (economy/finance), Steeve Briois (interior), Gilbert Collard (justice), Thierry Mariani (foreign affairs), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (European affairs), Gérard Longuet (defense), Eric Ciotti (education), Philippe de Villiers (culture), Robert Ménard (communication), Valérie Boyer (social affairs), Geoffroy Didier (immigration and integration), Lydia Guirous (cities/youth and sports), David Rachline (government spokesman)…

With Marine’s election and such a government in place, the FN would go into the June legislative elections with a head of steam. Given the fragmentation of the political field—with candidates of LR-UDI, the PS, La France Insoumise/PCF, and whatever remains of En Marche!—the number of triangulaires would be exceptionally high, particularly if the turnout is likewise (reaching, say, 70%). Withdrawal accords between FN and pro-FN LR candidates would almost certainly guarantee an RBM majority in the National Assembly. And the rest would be history. Marine Le Pen and the FN would rule France for the next five years. And there’s not a thing the left or anyone else could do about it.

This would be a disaster, needless to say. Marine Le Pen is Donald Trump without the crazy, as James Traub pithily put it, and which thus makes her more dangerous. She knows exactly where she wants to take France and, as president of the republic and with a legislative majority, would have more instruments at her disposal than does Trump in the US, as there are fewer checks on executive power in France hors cohabitation. And her government, such as hypothesized above, would not be made up of kooks and whack jobs à la Trump but rather of seasoned political pros. I will speculate at a later date as to what Marine would do in her first few months in power but, trust me, it would be bad. Very very bad.

The one candidate who can most certainly beat Marine, and handily, is Emmanuel Macron. I’m a little unsettled about him at the moment—I think he’s making some mistakes—but have to hope that his campaign does not falter in the coming two months, that he finishes strongly, and moves into the 2nd round. The fate of the republic may depend on it.

https://arunwithaview.wordpress.com/2017/02/21/marine-le-pen-can-she-win/
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@2cents Yeah, I'm on the same line. The only thing I can say is that Le Pen isn't popular in France and she will only win if the abstention is really high during both rounds. The woman lost against Xavier flippin' Bertrand, in her HQ and in a region of feckwit(I won't take that back).

For the legislative, she isn't going to have enough seats but I have no idea about who is going to win them. Right or left, that's a mystery to me.
 
Really wish France had AV rather than runoffs.
 
Ubik said:
Less chance of abstention in the final round, and Le Pen probably wouldn't end up in the top 2.
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We mainly have abstention in the first round not the final round.
 
Ubik said:
Less chance of abstention in the final round, and Le Pen probably wouldn't end up in the top 2.
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Abstentions maybe, but think this method is the best way to prevent Le Pen winning outright, Le Pen could be no.2 or 3 choice for a lot of voters.
The biggest worry is that the French are so very disillusioned with politicians.
Macron seems the best hope at the moment and should wipe the board with Le Pen.
 
JPRouve said:
We mainly have abstention in the first round not the final round.
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Only the Chirac-Le Pen election has had more valid votes cast (I'm counting spoiled as abstentions) in the second round since Mitterand in the 80s according to wiki, though that in itself suggests anti-FN sentiment was a solid driver of turnout and hopefully remains so.
Paul the Wolf said:
Abstentions maybe, but think this method is the best way to prevent Le Pen winning outright, Le Pen could be no.2 or 3 choice for a lot of voters.
The biggest worry is that the French are so very disillusioned with politicians.
Macron seems the best hope at the moment and should wipe the board with Le Pen.
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My worry is that Fillon scrapes through in second and remains heavily damaged for the second round. An AV system would theoretically improve Macron's chances of topping him when previous rounds are allocated. Although that relies on Hamon getting eliminated earlier, and if he got a fair amount of Melenchon's support it might get tight.

But yes, disillusionment is a worry, makes things more unpredictable as we've seen of late.
 
Ubik said:
Only the Chirac-Le Pen election has had more valid votes cast (I'm counting spoiled as abstentions) in the second round since Mitterand in the 80s according to wiki, though that in itself suggests anti-FN sentiment was a solid driver of turnout and hopefully remains so.
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Well people weren't going to rush to the poll for Sarkozy-Royal or Sarkozy-Hollande. But people rushed to the poll in local elections when the FN was high, it could obviously be different but remember that they have been humiliated during the regional.
 
JPRouve said:
Well people weren't going to rush to the poll for Sarkozy-Royal or Sarkozy-Hollande. But people rushed to the poll in local elections when the FN was high, it could obviously be different but remember that they have been humiliated during the regional.
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This is very true, I'd forgotten about those.
 
Ubik said:
This is very true, I'd forgotten about those.
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Everyone does, they had the Bataclan and used it but while people didn't vote in the first round, a lot of people went to the second round and just battered the FN. Nationally they were at 28% in the first round and 19% in the second.

I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the same outcome than the one we saw in Austria, the least disliked will win.
 
Macron looks to have regained some momentum since Bayrou pulled out, actually getting quite close to Le Pen in first preferences, and this is before the Fillon investigation had been announced



Still, these are not the times to get ahead of ourselves based on polling...
 
Ubik said:
Macron looks to have regained some momentum since Bayrou pulled out, actually getting quite close to Le Pen in first preferences, and this is before the Fillon investigation had been announced



Still, these are not the times to get ahead of ourselves based on polling...
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What's key there is Haman falling by about 5% - presumably people realising if they're left of centre Macron is their own realistic hope.
 
Looks like Fillon is going to try and Trump out the storm, despite charges being announced. Remarkable that he's still clinging on to 20%, to be honest.
 
Apparently police executed a raid at Fillon's house. Wonder what kind of evidence they were looking for, seems rather hard to prove his wife not opening correspondance or organizing his agenda. Besides can't judges only sanction him if the pay was downright abuse? After all it's his budget, and therefore his decision what kind of compensation he's offering for a service.
 
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