French Elections 2017

PedroMendez said:
yes. thats where people turn once they got disappointed. I am not entirely serious with the first part of my analysis; the high youth unemployment is certainly a factor so. Failed immigration policies and failed economic policies makes people go nutz during elections.
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Anti-immigrant is "normal" (Le Pen), but how does economic dissatisfaction go to anti-gay (Fillon)? It's not making any sense to me.
 
Nice overview by AFP about the investigations and allegations of #Penelopegate.
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berbatrick said:
Anti-immigrant is "normal" (Le Pen), but how does economic dissatisfaction go to anti-gay (Fillon)? It's not making any sense to me.
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Filon is not a single issue candidate. I don't follow the french media, but he seems to have a pretty clear economic agenda, that sets him apart. Who can you vote for if you fancy economic liberalism at all? Fillon seems to be toast anyway.
 
berbatrick said:
Anti-immigrant is "normal" (Le Pen), but how does economic dissatisfaction go to anti-gay (Fillon)? It's not making any sense to me.
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He isn't anti gay while as a christian he isn't pro gay, he isn't anti gay either at least not politically. He is anti medically assisted procreation which has been mixed with gay marriage by Hollande in 2012 because he wanted to force former on people.
 
Sorry, but I do love the frank language Europe Elects uses (see tweet text below). :lol:

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Not familiar with French politics. Someone please explain to me, what are the implications of this scandal?
 
Adisa said:
Not familiar with French politics. Someone please explain to me, what are the implications of this scandal?
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Before #Penelopegate came up, Fillon has been the favorite to reach the 2nd round of the election together with Le Pen and beat her in that one. Pre-Penelopegate, he was dead-certain the next French president. Now he's dropping in the polls and might not reach the 2nd round.

The election is in about 3 months time. The Republican party has to decide how to proceed: Whether they stick to Fillon but risk losing out, or replace him with another candidate.
 
Crossie said:
Before #Penelopegate came up, Fillon has been the favorite to reach the 2nd round of the election together with Le Pen and beat her in that one. Pre-Penelopegate, he was dead-certain the next French president. Now he's dropping in the polls and might not reach the 2nd round.

The election is in about 3 months time. The Republican party has to decide how to proceed: Whether they stick to Fillon but risk losing out, or replace him with another candidate.
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I'm happy with anything that keeps Let Pen out of office. However, France needs serious reform. I am a Leftie but even I, think they seemed some serious labour reforms and restructuring.
 
Adisa said:
I'm happy with anything that keeps Let Pen out of office. However, France needs serious reform. I am a Leftie but even I, think they seemed some serious labour reforms and restructuring.
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That pretty much sounds like what Macron plans on doing if elected President IMO. He hasn't really released any substantial policy proposals yet but when he does, I expect him to adopt the same labour market policies as Les Républicains and Fillon, but to differ with Fillon with regards to public expenditure and taxation (Fillon wants to make drastic Thatcher-esque cuts whereas Macron seems much more supportive of the role of government in general).
 
Assange / WikiLeaks are scumbags.
 
Those seem to be news articles?
 
Ubik said:
Those seem to be news articles?
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I think most of it is but there seems to be some stuff with to do with e- mail(Although I could be wrong, I find Wiki leaks layout a bit shite). But thought it was worth posting, as that tweet makes it seems it Wiki leaks has completely avoided Le Pen.

Out of interest do you have the Assange quote or video of the interview ? I'm sure he's said something along those lines(He's a complete arse) but I can't for the life of me find it.
 
adexkola said:
What happened in polling science that we missed?
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I'm not sure if I get your question but I perceive polls to be not as reliable as they used to be. IMHO, two things have happened, making it more difficult for polling agencies:

  1. People feel less bound to a certain party and decide much later who gets their votes. I remember elections where 30% of those interviewed for a poll a week or less before election day said they haven't made up their mind yet.
  2. Although polls are usually anonymous, people might be reluctant to voice their right-wing views.
 
Crossie said:
I'm not sure if I get your question but I perceive polls to be not as reliable as they used to be. IMHO, two things have happened, making it more difficult for polling agencies:

  1. People feel less bound to a certain party and decide much later who gets their votes. I remember elections where 30% of those interviewed for a poll a week or less before election day said they haven't made up their mind yet.
  2. Although polls are usually anonymous, people might be reluctant to voice their right-wing views.
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The problem with your points is that they don't demonstrate a change from the past:

1. People might and often know who they are going to vote for but won't tell because they think that it's private.
2. It has always been the case, people have always been reluctant to voice their right-wing views.

So poll aren't less reliable today, it's just that lately people take them too seriously.
 
JPRouve said:
The problem with your points is that they don't demonstrate a change from the past:

1. People might and often know who they are going to vote for but won't tell because they think that it's private.
2. It has always been the case, people have always been reluctant to voice their right-wing views.

So poll aren't less reliable today, it's just that lately people take them too seriously.
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I don't agree, sorry. Voter fluctuation is more pronounced than in previous years or even decades. But even if your 1st point were true, it makes polls less meaningful if people are less open to share compared to the past. It also makes a big difference if only a fraction of people intend to vote far-right and won't tell or if it's a larger group.
 
JPRouve said:
Competent politician, really?
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She's probably competent in the sense that she's managed to increase the standing of the FN and detoxify them to a certain extent. Besides that I think the article showed how she's flip-flopped on a number of issues and has lacked conviction, and that she'll face a real problem in winning the second round.

Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Not that I trust these things anymore but I certainly hope this turns out to be the case, I like to sound of Macron and at least he's prepared to try and find some middle ground between the left & right.
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He's certainly the best option out of himself, Fillon and Le Pen.
 
Crossie said:
I'm not sure if I get your question but I perceive polls to be not as reliable as they used to be. IMHO, two things have happened, making it more difficult for polling agencies:

  1. People feel less bound to a certain party and decide much later who gets their votes. I remember elections where 30% of those interviewed for a poll a week or less before election day said they haven't made up their mind yet.
  2. Although polls are usually anonymous, people might be reluctant to voice their right-wing views.
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1. That would be problematic if polls were only conducted occasionally. More frequent polls alleviate this problem to some extent
2. I am confident that this is not a problem that can't be solved given current statistical techniques (sampling from a "corrupt" database for example)

I do think polls had some difficulties capturing the anomalities of recent elections but the methods will be updated to deal with the challenges.
 
An interesting sidenote on Macron...his wife is a former teacher of his who is 20 years older than him, and they started dating when he was 18.
 
Cheesy said:
She's probably competent in the sense that she's managed to increase the standing of the FN and detoxify them to a certain extent. Besides that I think the article showed how she's flip-flopped on a number of issues and has lacked conviction, and that she'll face a real problem in winning the second round.
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I agree with the rest of the article, she has no conviction, she is opportunistic and will switch her narrative depending on the actuality. And like the rest of her party, she has no moral compass, they are convinced that the law doesn't apply to them.
 
French economic policy in a nutshell:

Mr. Fillon characterized it as unfair for media reports to state his wife received nearly a million euros over a 15-year period, saying after taxes her monthly average income came to only €3,677 ($3,964). His two children each collected an average monthly salary of €3,000 after taxes, he added. All of those salaries are well above the monthly net income of the average French worker.
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/french...llon-apologizes-for-employing-wife-1486396671

*I paid my wife a shitload of money, but don’t worry, taxes are so high that the state got most of it back* (ignoring that she earned above the average income….). You couldn’t make this shit up.

I said earlier that I don’t believe that Le Pen is going to win it and that Trump’s victory might actually hurt her chances. I have to retract that. The current campaigns of her competitors are such a colossal shit-show, that I wouldn’t bet against Le Pen anymore.

Additionally, here a quite funny older report about French administrative practices:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32510604

A top French civil servant has been forced to resign after spending more than €40,000 (£29,000; $44,000) on taxis in 10 months.
(…)
She had previously argued she needed to travel by taxi, despite having a chauffeur as well as a private car.
(…)
"As I cannot make him work 12 to 15 hours including weekends, I've also got a G7 taxi account because I don't have a driver's licence," she said.
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So where does she actually work? In a freaking radio radio archive! Yeah….thats certainly a job, where you need a driver 24/7 on hold….

(..) She replaced Mathieu Gallet, who is now head of French public radio and is himself at the centre of a scandal after reportedly spending €100,000 on renovating his office and hiring a €90,000 PR consultant, just as he was preparing a cost-cutting plan.
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