French Elections 2017

Per the FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/3691a448-fa1d-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65

Macron’s economic plans:
● Targets for €60bn cut in public spending by 2022, from 55 per cent of GDP to 52 per cent
● Cut up to 120,000 state jobs by not replacing retiring civil servants
● A €50bn stimulus over five years, including training for unemployed and transition to green economy
● Deficit below 3 per cent of GDP, in line with EU requirements
● Negotiate a eurozone budget and EU-wide investment programme with Germany
● Lower corporate tax from 33 per cent to 25 per cent. Keep Socialist government’s tax breaks on salaries
● Extend unemployment benefits to entrepreneurs, farmers, self-employed and those who quit jobs voluntarily
● Exempt 80 per cent of households from local housing tax — a €10bn measure
● Financial investment excluded from wealth tax
● Keep retirement age and pensions intact
 
That semi-exit poll is looking pretty spot on, great job all round by the French pollsters.
 
Rawls said:
France tends to have some of the most extensive regulations vis-a-vis other European countries, plus French people pay relatively high rates of tax. IIRC, the average tax that one pays in France may be higher than that of the Nordic countries (Although that's what I think is true, I'm not 100% certain.
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Similar income tax on the €26,819 - €71,898 bracket as here in the nordies. Once over that bracket it's 31% + 20% in Sweden, and "just" 41% in France.

Fair bit lower VAT also in France.
 


Considering she was once touted to get 26%+, that's a result. Nothing to get too smug about since that's still the far right winning a fifth of the vote in the first round, but still. Doubly so since it's Macron that faces her rather than Fillon.

Just saw my first post in the thread
Ubik said:
Still hoping Macron can scrape into the final two.
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:drool:
 
Ubik said:


Considering she was once touted to get 26%+, that's a result. Nothing to get too smug about since that's still the far right winning a fifth of the vote in the first round, but still. Doubly so since it's Macron that faces her rather than Fillon.

Just saw my first post in the thread

:drool:
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She's down to 21.42% now even. It's actually a pretty huge upset for her at this point. Scraping 30% from Melenchon (who is also Anti-EU, but running on an otherwise pretty different platform) and Fillion is an extremely huge call. Melenchons voters are the most difficult to predict, but there's no way she's getting all of his votes.
She's done. Doub't she will get a much better result than her father, especially now that Macron has undoubtedly shown he can win elections.
 
Will be interesting now to see how the forthcoming legislature elections feature in the campaign - neither candidate would have their own group as challengers for the largest party. Will Macron pick a potential Prime Minister beforehand?
 
Ubik said:
Will be interesting now to see how the forthcoming legislature elections feature in the campaign - neither candidate would have their own group as challengers for the largest party. Will Macron pick a potential Prime Minister beforehand?
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As far as I've heard from his campaign (I know some people) this isn't clear cut yet. Depends on polls and alliances I guess.
 
Red Defence said:
Is he actually centrist or centrist to try and appeal to all whilst really being Hollande Mk2?
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To add to what others responded to you: What I meant by 'centrist' is that Macron's program is overall quite centric and balanced if compared to other candidates.

The program of the socialist candidate Hamon was more on the left than the one of his opponents in the socialist primaries. Similarly, the program of the Republican candidate Fillon was more on the right than the one of his opponents in the Republican primaries.

As a result, as a voter you had the choice between a couple of candidates on the very left and the very right but pretty much only one (Macron) in the middle / center.

As Paul pointed out earlier in this thread, Macron's program contains a bit of left elements and right elements, it appears to be balanced.
 
Is Machelon having a laugh? He can't pick a side...and he's supposed to be on the left?
 
Rawls said:
Per the FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/3691a448-fa1d-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65

Macron’s economic plans:
● Targets for €60bn cut in public spending by 2022, from 55 per cent of GDP to 52 per cent
● Cut up to 120,000 state jobs by not replacing retiring civil servants
● A €50bn stimulus over five years, including training for unemployed and transition to green economy
● Deficit below 3 per cent of GDP, in line with EU requirements
● Negotiate a eurozone budget and EU-wide investment programme with Germany
● Lower corporate tax from 33 per cent to 25 per cent. Keep Socialist government’s tax breaks on salaries
● Extend unemployment benefits to entrepreneurs, farmers, self-employed and those who quit jobs voluntarily
● Exempt 80 per cent of households from local housing tax — a €10bn measure
● Financial investment excluded from wealth tax
● Keep retirement age and pensions intact
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That's pretty dead centre policies. One would need to be extremely blinkered to think the French economy doesn't need restructuring.
 
Adisa said:
Just found out MLP isn't even 50 yet...jeez!
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She looks decades older than she actually is, doesn't she? I assume a mixture of too much alcohol, nicotine and unprotected exposure to sunlight. Wouldn't surprise me if she's one day diagnosed with liver cirrhosis, lung cancer or one type of skin cancer.
 
As I said before, she's named after stationery. Stationery!
 
Rawls said:
Per the FT:

https://www.ft.com/content/3691a448-fa1d-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65

Macron’s economic plans:
● Targets for €60bn cut in public spending by 2022, from 55 per cent of GDP to 52 per cent
● Cut up to 120,000 state jobs by not replacing retiring civil servants
● A €50bn stimulus over five years, including training for unemployed and transition to green economy
● Deficit below 3 per cent of GDP, in line with EU requirements
● Negotiate a eurozone budget and EU-wide investment programme with Germany
● Lower corporate tax from 33 per cent to 25 per cent. Keep Socialist government’s tax breaks on salaries
● Extend unemployment benefits to entrepreneurs, farmers, self-employed and those who quit jobs voluntarily
● Exempt 80 per cent of households from local housing tax — a €10bn measure
● Financial investment excluded from wealth tax
● Keep retirement age and pensions intact
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Cut Cut Cut, a typical European neoliberal and as for those unemployment benefits, absolute madness.
 
Crossie said:
She looks decades older than she actually is, doesn't she? I assume a mixture of too much alcohol, nicotine and unprotected exposure to sunlight. Wouldn't surprise me if she's one day diagnosed with liver cirrhosis, lung cancer or one type of skin cancer.
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Thought she was approaching 60 at the least.
 
Anyone here can tell us what's the feeling in France the day after the election? What are the expectations for the run-off?
 
Adisa said:
That's pretty dead centre policies. One would need to be extremely blinkered to think the French economy doesn't need restructuring.
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I actually think that he is ever so slightly left-of-centre. You can make the argument that his policies are derived from social democracy, which leads me to say that he is just a bit left-of-centre. Ideologically, he's very similar to Blair, with the exception of the Iraq War. Nonetheless, En Marche will probably join ALDE in Europe, and ALDE is by definition a centrist grouping, although with some deviations to the left and right.

I think I once heard someone describe the French economy as being sclerotic i.e. not functioning at all. Certainly, it stands out as one of the European economies most in need of deregulation. That being said, I'm not in favour of unilateral deregulation. Ireland and Britain for example could probably do with more regulation in the labour market, similar to the regulation in the Nordic countries.
 
Crossie said:
She looks decades older than she actually is, doesn't she? I assume a mixture of too much alcohol, nicotine and unprotected exposure to sunlight. Wouldn't surprise me if she's one day diagnosed with liver cirrhosis, lung cancer or one type of skin cancer.
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She is a formidable looking woman though. Like a viking warrioress. The size of her nogin is incredible.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Anyone here can tell us what's the feeling in France the day after the election? What are the expectations for the run-off?
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Expecting a fairly easy win for Macron in the 2nd round. Pretty much as before , Le Pen got a bit less votes than expected. People want a change, hopefully Macron will bring some
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Expecting a fairly easy win for Macron in the 2nd round. Pretty much as before , Le Pen got a bit less votes than expected. People want a change, hopefully Macron will bring some
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Thank you.

Can she get 40%? I mean, even if she loses with that type of number, it's concerning. But, yeah, let's pass this episode first.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
Thank you.

Can she get 40%? I mean, even if she loses with that type of number, it's concerning. But, yeah, let's pass this episode first.
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She could get 40% but would be if quite a lot of Fillon's followers and Mélenchon's vote for her along with the small number of the supporters of Dupont-Aignan (friend of Farage) but any defeat I will be happy, Macron has then 5 years to do some good things and by then the Republicans and Socialists should have better candidates for next time around.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
She is a formidable looking woman though. Like a viking warrioress. The size of her nogin is incredible.
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It's a matter of personal perception I guess. To me, there's nothing female about her, if somebody were to tell me she had been born as a boy and changed her gender when she grew up, I would believe it. Apart from that, she looks like a physical wreck due to alcohol, nicotine and sun.
 
Crossie said:
It's a matter of personal perception I guess. To me, there's nothing female about her, if somebody were to tell me she had been born as a boy and changed her gender when she grew up, I would believe it. Apart from that, she looks like a physical wreck due to alcohol, nicotine and sun.
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I don't think that female Viking warriors were especially feminine! I mean she looks tough.
 
Sweet Square said:
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Ouch. With the graph on the right I had to wipe my computer screen to find out which bits were dust and which parts were areas they'd won. Although obviously Macron running was instrumental in their decline. PS must really hate him right now.
 
Cheesy said:
Ouch. With the graph on the right I had to wipe my computer screen to find out which bits were dust and which parts were areas they'd won. Although obviously Macron running was instrumental in their decline. PS must really hate him right now.
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Hamon was never going to win, or any PS candidate given Hollande's popularity, and without Macron we'd be looking at a Le Pen vs Fillon/Melenchon runoff. Still interesting to see how Macron deals with them with a view to the legislative elections.
 
Cheesy said:
Ouch. With the graph on the right I had to wipe my computer screen to find out which bits were dust and which parts were areas they'd won. Although obviously Macron running was instrumental in their decline. PS must really hate him right now.
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For context, Macron isn't a socialist and they spent the better part of the last 5 years repeating it and trying their best to make his position difficult in the government, they were called "les frondeurs" and were led by Hamon.
 
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