French Elections 2017

He's 'centrist' socially, but probably the furthest right in terms of pro-business, small government ideals. Not racist though which makes him the better candidate.
 
Looks like Macron has now taken the lead in counted votes, shouldn't look back now as the urban areas continue to come in.
 
So conflicted right now

 
Melenchon, fillon and hamon should back macron in his plan to switch le pen off
 
I suspect Vlad will throw the kitchen sink at this to see if he can push her over the top.
 
Sigma said:
We all said the same thing about Trump, and Brexit.
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She doesn't have support outside of her party while Macron has a lot of support so it's going to be very difficult for the FN.
 
Albeit i am more left-wing than him, i am happy Macron sets for a good win in the second round. Le Pen would be fecked without immigration and terrorism.
 
The thing with polls is you never know what happens once Putin and his proxies start polluting the media and internet to push their agenda. Now they can comfortably zero in on Macron.
 
Is it just me or have all the European Nationalist candidates crashed since Trump & Brexit: Wilders, LePen & Hofer all did a lot worse than feared.
 
Ubik said:
Paris looking pretty big too, something like 40-4 in some early results.
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Looks like Le Pen coming 5th in Paris

There is a massive divide in the vote

In the western half of the country and Paris Macron way ahead of Le Pen , far north and south and quite a lot of the east Le Pen ahead with some big votes in some departments.
 
Sigma said:
We all said the same thing about Trump, and Brexit.
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This is just rewriting history.
Some stupid people may have said that, but in both cases, polls clearly showed it to be a possibility.
And in case of Brexit, that was mentioned by the media a lot as well.
In Brexit, it was clear it would be pretty close as polls were within the margin of error.
It was less likely with Trump, but even there he always had around 25% of a chance. And he was in a weird state based, nationwide election which is very difficult to predict. In his case, it was mere an incident of people who couldn't believe he would find enough stupid idiots voting him into office.

Both cases are far from a nationwide election were on side has between a 20 and 30% lead in polls.

For all the "polls can't be trusted!" shitters in here:

"
Before the U.S. election, Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by only about 2 percentage points in the average swing state. Trump also trailed Clinton by 3 to 4 percentage points in national polls, which correctly predicted that Clinton would win the popular vote.
In the Brexit vote, the “Remain” campaign’s lead was at least as narrow: about 2 points according to a simple average of polls, or just 0.5 percentage points according to a more complex averaging method. So while Trump’s victory and Brexit were historic events in world history, they were utterly routine occurrences from a polling standpoint; 2- or 3-point polling errors are extremely common."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was/
 
Silva said:
Some polls for the US popular vote pretty much right, just the assumed distribution was completely wrong.
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Not really. The "wrong" polls were in some states with a sometimes overall pretty insignificant populace. That's absolutely possible to happen. It just can't here as the system is completely different.
This is a 26 points lead people.
Just as Silver says, the same thinking that made the media and people underestimate Trump and Brexit lets them overestimate Le Pen.
 
altodevil86 said:
He's 'centrist' socially, but probably the furthest right in terms of pro-business, small government ideals. Not racist though which makes him the better candidate.
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Out of the major candidates, Fillon was definitely furthest to the right on economic issues. Moreover, Small Government isn't really a popular concept in France IMO. France tends to have some of the most extensive regulations vis-a-vis other European countries, plus French people pay relatively high rates of tax. IIRC, the average tax that one pays in France may be higher than that of the Nordic countries (Although that's what I think is true, I'm not 100% certain). Macron may want to reduce taxes but only to a relatively small extent. He's on record as saying that his preferred economic model is the Nordic model (Which pretty much means he is no adherent of Small Government).

https://www.ft.com/content/3691a448-fa1d-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65 (There is a way to get around the paywall, I just can't remember how to specifically do it).
 
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