In reality, I was wrong because I expected Le Pen to be 1st
Yeah me too, I expected those numbers but switched Le Pen and Macron.
French Elections 2017
- Thread starter Cheesy
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Yeah me too, I expected those numbers but switched Le Pen and Macron.
Polls were pretty accurate by the look of it - looks as if Le Pen is second but lowest percentage she's had. Should get overwhelmed in 2nd round.
We'll get new polls for the next round, won't we?
I put a fiver on Macron to top the first round a month or two ago so I'm hopeful these semi-exits prove correctIn reality, I was wrong because I expected Le Pen to be 1st
Ye of little faith
Is Macron 'the French Margaret Thatcher'?
No that's Fillon
We were told a few months ago that all the polls won't be wrong.
What is Macron all about then?
French Blair.
It wasn't really big deal for me, foreigners seem to care a lot about who is first.
Edit: Fillon is "supporting" Macron.
He's the only 'centrist' of the pack.
Please tell me he did the speech marks with his hands whilst saying it
Bullshit argument.
I'm so tired of hearing this.
They were well within margin of error and with a bullshit system like the US, it was always a possibility. It wasn't a huge one, but no one acted like it was impossible.
Please tell me he did the speech marks with his hands whilst saying it
No, but it would have been great.
A little bit left and a little bit right, and hopefully a breath of fresh air
In France, the polling institutes were smart in the last days and said 'Everything is possible: 4 candidates (MLP, Macron, Mélenchon, Fillon) can reach the 2nd round'
Like in 2002, everybody against Le Pen.
History repeats itself.
History repeats itself.
No, but psychologically it's good to see Le Pen not leading - hope she's battered in the second round
Look up Sanders Michigan victory. Polls had him 21 points behind Clinton.
Impressive how the other candidates have attacked Le Pen so strongly already.
It was 82% for Chirac in 2002, it will be nowhere as emphatic this time round. It's a sign of the times really, 2002 was a massive shock, this time round we'll only be relieved if Macron wins.
Don't compare a party primary with a full-on election. Those primary elections are alays faulty as feck, as they rely on output more than anything else. Few people, extremely hard to find a decent sample.
The national polls in the US were pretty accurate. She won the popular vote by about 2% which is roughly what most polls indicated.
So what? Seriously, do you understand how polling work in the slightest?
American polling wasn't wrong, the states results were will within the margin of error and on point apart for 2-3 states. Correct in this case is also when something is called to close to call, like Florida. Because of the retarded American system, few upsets, which were all well within the margin of error, swung the electoral college result around by a huge margin. People like Nate Silver clearly pointed out this was a possibility a few hours before the election.
So, instead of posting random links of bullshit, maybe try to actually understand the matter.
Exactly what I said. Huge populaces in countrywide elections are easy to poll, but the electoral college is way more difficult to predict.
On the other hand, some 'pundits' were certain that Clinton would win, no?
You do realise that guy who had to eat a bug had been correct for a huge number of years?
Anyway, I get your point, but 20% polling errors are unheard of.
The electoral college is usually pretty straight forward as well. Silver nailed it 50/50 and 49/50 during the previous two cycles. This was just a strange outlier year with populism/putin/comey/assange etc.
Well no one claims polls are 100% correct. But in a popular vote system, they tend to be far more correct than in systems like GB or the US, where it comes down to states/counties.
That's very true.
Not that it affects your point but constituencies are far smaller than counties, for UK general elections. Only use 'counties' in the European Parliament elections.
Result from my commune (extremely small):
Macron 23.72%
Fillon 20.47%
Le Pen 20.23%
Mélenchon 19.07%
Hamon 6.05%
Macron 23.72%
Fillon 20.47%
Le Pen 20.23%
Mélenchon 19.07%
Hamon 6.05%
Le Pen getting only 21-22% is a really good sign. It is hard to see that she can win enough new voters from the other camps. Sure, some conservatives, some protest voters, a few who really hate the EU, but thats just not enough. At the same time Fillion and Hamon are going to support Macron, while Melenchon voters are probably just staying at home.
This is true.
That really only strenghtens my point.