French Elections 2017

True, but there were plenty in the lead-up which had Brexit winning. Macron's consistently been ahead or second, so it'd be really, really shite if he came third.
It's mainly been margin of error stuff though, and there's precedent for 4 point misses in the first round.

But I'm hoping 2017 has turned a corner on shit results. Macron v Melenchon would be like a rerun of Hillary v Bernie on a national scale which would be quite fun.
 
I mean just on the day, we had the big YouGov give a 4 or 5 point lead after voting closed and it looked safe.

AND LO



In fairness that Yougov poll was right within its margin of error which I guess shows the problems of polling a close election. Cheesy's right some polls had Brexit ahead continuously and there was a weird belief that the telephone polls (which had Brexit ahead throughout) where somehow less reliable than the online polls that didn't. I guess it was an exercise in trying to take confirmation bias out of it when looking at the data.

FWIW from polling until that Yougov exit poll I was convinced Brexit had it sewn up from about a week out. The only thing I wasn't sure of was how the Jo Cox murder might have changed things.
 
It's mainly been margin of error stuff though, and there's precedent for 4 point misses in the first round.

But I'm hoping 2017 has turned a corner on shit results. Macron v Melenchon would be like a rerun of Hillary v Bernie on a national scale which would be quite fun.

I think Macron is the only candidate Melenchon cannot beat in the 2nd round (he is comfortable vs both MLP and Fillon).


I honestly wouldn't know what to think in a MLP v Fillon 2nd: it's Trump v Cruz.
 
So I take it as long as Macron makes it into the second round, he'll win the election no matter who he has to go against.
 
I think Macron is the only candidate Melenchon cannot beat in the 2nd round (he is comfortable vs both MLP and Fillon).


I honestly wouldn't know what to think in a MLP v Fillon 2nd: it's Trump v Cruz.

How the feck is Melenchon so popular ? Isn't he a communist ?
 
How the feck is Melenchon so popular ? Isn't he a communist ?

He is a socialist, running a heavily Keynesian program (on the assumption that the economy can be stimulated by a massive investment). However his main reform is to abolish the executive presidency and shift France to a parliamentary system.
He does have youth support but unlike Bernie it's not so skewed towards young people. I read somewhere that he has decent support from workers and the unemployed.
 
I think Macron is the only candidate Melenchon cannot beat in the 2nd round (he is comfortable vs both MLP and Fillon).


I honestly wouldn't know what to think in a MLP v Fillon 2nd: it's Trump v Cruz.
Would be a genuine shit show.
How the feck is Melenchon so popular ? Isn't he a communist ?
He's a socialist firebrand with the support of the Communists. He's been a minister though.
 
So I take it as long as Macron makes it into the second round, he'll win the election no matter who he has to go against.
For what's it's worth it: That's what all the polls show.
 

I'd be over the moon if Harris turns out to be correct. It would be also a big blow to Twitler and his deplorables. The latter have been quite active on Twitter to urge French to vote for MLP.
 
I'd be over the moon if Harris turns out to be correct. It would be also a big blow to Twitler and his deplorables. The latter have been quite active on Twitter to urge French to vote for MLP.

The amount of American money flowing into the French and Dutch campaigns was incredible.
 
brilliant article.

On JLM, who’s the sensation of this fin de campagne, I fear that too many people are privileging form over substance — are being taken in by his lyricism and poetry, and not paying close attention to the actual content of his crazy rhetoric. I can comprehend some of JLM’s appeal but, at least from my way of thinking, there is nothing compelling about his program, which is – take your pick – half-baked, pie-in-the-sky, or downright pernicious and dangerous: on Europe, taxation, geopolitics, a 6ème République, you name it. If JLM were to somehow to accede to the Elysée palace and implement his program, it would be a fiasco of the first order. The only cause of relative optimism in such an eventuality would be the impossibility of JLM attaining anything approaching a parliamentary majority following the legislative election, which would render him politically impotent. With Trump in the White House outre-Atlantique, I don’t want to have to contemplate a similar situation over here.
 
French TV has Macron 23.7, Le Pen 21.7

Basically right where the polls were :lol:
 
In any case, it looks as if Macron and (sadly) MLP make it into the second round. Wonder how Republicans feel, given that not too long ago it was clear as mud that one of their breed would be handed the presidency on a silver platter.
 
Hamon at 6 or 7%, ooouch. End of the PS? What happens with them in the legislative elections?
 
If Le Pen pulls this off, is that the end of polling in the world?
I don't think so.

Look at all the 'pundits' and 'experts' who predict football results for a living, i.e. title contenders, and are more often wrong than right. Nevertheless, they prevail. :wenger:
 
1st round: Le Pen will easily win - deal done

2nd round: pretty open, Le Pen against Macron or Fillon.

Given the political climate (terrorist attacks, economic climate, refugees, French TV...), Le Pen will win 55-45 or lose 45-55.

The election of Trump, the Brexit, the scandals related to Fillon and the rate of abstention make everything possible.

Well, I'm a decent astrologer - truth to be told :cool:
 
Some guy from France 2 (?) who is at the FN party spoke to FN people close to MLP. According to them, MLP is disappointed and wouldn't understand why she didn't get more votes; she expected 30+%.