That would guarantee a Macron victory
French Elections 2017
- Thread starter Cheesy
- Start date
That would guarantee a Macron victory
Won't Le Pen get crushed in the second round?
She should do
I thought Le Pen and Macron would have gone face to face in the second round until some weeks ago, but now it can go all the way.
I cheer for your wife, well done!
That would be just
but I fear a Le Pen lead in the 1st round and wouldn't be surprised if the polls are quite off with her getting something in the thirties.@Paul the Wolf @JPRouve
Two questions:
Two questions:
- Sorry for my ignorance but I assume that the French voting system allows for some sort of absentee voting. If so, do you know by when these votes will be counted? Tonight or tomorrow?
- Could you recommend a source on Twitter to follow for getting the most accurate prognoses and intermediate results? One by Le Monde, by a radio or TV channel?
Overseas voters I think were voted yesterday - the overall result will be known this evening.
Don't use Twitter but the following site may help:
http://www.linternaute.com/actualit...residentielle-2017-resultats-ville-par-ville/
Thanks!
Who are the best french journalists to follow on twitter who tweet in english? Would be interesting to see what the turnouts in the different areas are looking like and who's doing well.
Overseas voters are voting in the UK today. Sky were outside a polling station in Kensington this morning and there was a large turnout.
Yes the others were in different time zones
What do you make of the large number of undecideds in the election? I've read that around 30% are undecided, which is very high especially when you consider there's a large choice of candidates to vote from who all have their different policies.
Do you think that a large number of these undecideds are actually going to vote to Le Pen, but didn't want to tell the pollsters their real voting choice as they want to keep their voting intention secret as people would judge them to be voting for a racist party.
I suspect a large % of undecided won't vote... At least in this round
I think most of the undecided were more fed up with politicians in general and didn't prefer any particular candidate, don't think that really favours Le Pen
And a lot of undecided are probably socialists who are hesitating between Macron, Hamon and Mélenchon. Plus the french culture of not telling who you are voting for or how much you earn.
As far as I can tell from my very rubbish attempts at reading the French poll releases, the 30% figure is for "abstention", which I presume to mean they're unlikely to vote. The french pollsters seem to try and estimate turnout directly, and they're going for between 70-80%.
Main thing I'm worried about is still the Macron voters turning out in fewer numbers than expected. He's not got any party machine for organisation and he has lower certainty of choice than Le Pen, Fillon and Melenchon.
Main thing I'm worried about is still the Macron voters turning out in fewer numbers than expected. He's not got any party machine for organisation and he has lower certainty of choice than Le Pen, Fillon and Melenchon.
That's probably the likelier of the 2.
Le Pen appears not to have sent her posters abroad so hers was the only poster missing at overseas polling stations
Translation of her father's tweet "The absence of a poster from Marine for the French abroad is really a dreadful blunder, I hope the DOM-TOM were spared"
My neighbour is the image of le pen its almost spooky
I know little about the election, candidate policies etc, but who will be best for the U.K heading into Brexit?
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Horrible feeling in my gut that it'll be Le Pen and Fillon that go through.
The turn-out seems to be fairly high with around 80% (around the level of 2012). I am not sure that this is good news for Macron.
In general, it's not good news for Le Pen but you never know.
Watching the twitter coverage of France 2 (I think), their studio looks like a spaceship. I approve.
Le pen i guess
I saw a graph showing that far right votes have remained much steadier than the percentage (which has risen sharply), because total votes have declined.
This is giving me jip, feels very EU referendum like so far.
Usually I’d agree but I doubt that holds to be true during this election. I have my doubts that Macron is able to motivate people in the first round. For me it is more plausible to see shy Le Pen voters, committed conservatives or emboldened Melenchon supporter to turn out in numbers. The nightmare scenario would be Macron not making it, so hopefully I am wrong.
This is what I mean though, all the news coming out on the day of the EU ref was good, turnout looked great in London, last polls were all positive etc. Same has been happening here. Just my newfound deep paranoia at election time.
To be fair though, plenty of polls in the lead-up did indicate Brexit might win. Everyone just sort of assumed the status quo would prevail. With this, Macron's been consistently in the top two for a good, good while now. Hopefully he'll prevail.
According to RTBF Macron is leading and it's very close between Fillon/Le Pen/Mélenchon for the 2nd spot.
Daily Mail weirdly just tweeted Le Pen's through to the second round.
I mean just on the day, we had the big YouGov give a 4 or 5 point lead after voting closed and it looked safe.
AND LO
True, but there were plenty in the lead-up which had Brexit winning. Macron's consistently been ahead or second, so it'd be really, really shite if he came third.
It's best to wait a little hour than spread dubious results.
They're basing it on a different exit poll.
It would be an awful lot easier to trust polls if the success rate of just assuming the worst possible outcome will happen wasn't considerably more accurate.